Five Years, Lord Willing

[Frugalchicos]

Seville and Getafe are quite far from my home. However, it might be worth the flight... and yes, I will definitely use the baby carrying her on a front backpack as Galifianakis on The Hangover. Thanks for the research

[classical_Liberal]

Knowing you can live on 7K a year is much more powerful than this tortuous bullshit.

Dude, preach it! I really don't think many people, even here, grok this until they start reaching near FI numbers.

On a positive note, I figured out how I will occupy myself if I ever do cross over.

This is better than my 80-yr old walmart plan.

[Jason]

I've been doing some research on this topic. The only legal restrictions I have found in the US territory is that in the state of Florida, it's illegal to fart in a public place after 6:00PM on a Thursday. I figure Trump will be Ok, being that Mara Lago is technically his house so its not a public place when he is the farter, which I'm assuming would be every Thursday night. And if they try to prosecute, he'll just have Barr fire the Florida state attorney. Also, in certain parts of Texas, it's illegal to fart in an elevator. I have thought of both areas as retirement destinations. I don't find either of the restrictions to be prohibitive. I'd be doing the early bird thing in Florida so my farting would be finished around fivish and I prefer the more rural areas of Texas where there are just single story structures.

[Jason]

The engineer in me says stay away from Boeing. It's not just the 737 but their space program is having issues too. SpaceX is plain beating them. There was the failed test of the Orion capsule (IIRC) a month or so ago...

Just recently there were 4 proposals for a human moon lander, 3 were chosen. You guessed it, Boeing was the loser.

The report came back. 80 problems. BA has turned into a flying train wreck. What a fall from from grace. 100 year old company. Symbol of American ingenuity. Until I buy a few shares. You'd be safer riding the paper planes their bored-to-death engineers are throwing at each other's heads.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/ ... apsul.aspx

[ertyu]

it's not the engineers it's the cost-cutting beancounters, same as ford. ultimately motivated by those sweet sweet ceo bonuses/stock appreciation

[Jason]

I hope they are getting their bonuses, because believe me, their stock is not appreciating. I'm also not sure how government contracts work, but maybe its best to skimp after you get the contract. They have to realize how in need they are of a PR win. This is getting to Hindenburg level.

[ertyu]

don't you just cursed it

spectacular explosion incoming

[Lemur]

@Jason let me know when you sell BA at the bottom. Would be a great indicator.

[Jason]

BA has no chance of returning to my buy point until there is a vaccine. But it's going to be severely damaged goods at that point. They are like the Johnny Depp of the aeronautic world. Before the pandemic they were aging and demonstrating signs of dangerous behavior and decline but recovery seemed possible. But during the pandemic it's been revealed they are anachronistic and in need of redemption. Maybe they didn't do the worse things they were accused of, but the evidence does not paint a pretty picture. Will we return to a world where people get on Boeing to travel to Disney World to ride a Pirates of The Caribbean ride? That's an air safety, pandemic, cancel culture tootsie roll to unwrap. These days make me think Huxley was more accurate than Orwell. But even if I'm wrong, if Elon Musk has proven anything, it's that you can stretch Barnum's tent to Mars.

[Jason]

Assets are now two commas. I can see the Golden Arches and now just have make it out the drive-thru with my MacStick before things get real. I have come to accept that I am what I am. My only way out is to Millionaire Next Door. I loathe spending. I found four books in the back of my car trunk and thought that's was one share of FSLY. That's the extent of it for me.

[Frita]

Congrats! It sounds like you hit a number and see how you’ve changed to get there. Next steps planned?

[Jason]

Thank you. I understand its assets, not NW, but anyone who says it's "just a number" or "I saw it and went back to doing the crossword" is lying. It's a cognitive event as you've been staring at 6 numbers for years on end. Plus, the aggregators change their bar numbers. We have decided on a final resting place before the final final resting place. Now it's just about deciding what the number it takes to hit the wagon trail.

[Hristo Botev]

Assets are now two commas.

Am I right that's an increase of over $500,000 since January 2017 (based on the disclosure in your first journal post)? Goodness.

[Jason]

That is fucked up come to think of it. In the fall of 2019 I started selling off target date mutual fund holdings and invested in individual stocks, many of which became COVID darlings. TTD, TWLO, ZM, PYPL, FB, DOCU, OKTA. The stocks getting hammered today that make me think I'm going to get hosed in the end. Also, we continued not to have children or divorce.

[Hristo Botev]

Also, we continued not to have children . . . .

I tell myself, in true ERE fashion, that I'm investing in social capital

[Jason]

Monthly Update:

I am a football in the hands of a roid raging Nasdaq standing on my opponent's 10 yard line. This is the game I have chosen.

[Jason]

The question is where the heck are we. My Lex Fridman podcast binge informs me that some problems are more computational than we like to admit. Going by the basic definition that technology is what is created after you are born, I think autonomous car driving is the new inflection point followed by high speed jet/space travel. Advancement in technology beyond human communications into a Jetson world of advanced travel and communication between the vehicles i.e. internet of things. Someone's Tesla telling everyone else Tesla's that there is a pothole on Scratchyourass Street in Downton Des Moines so nobody has to learn about it through the personal experience of a blowout. Why would we not want that? This helps me suffer through the volatility of My So Called Nasdaq Life as I march onwards to my certain death.

[2Birds1Stone]

Picture a city (say NYC) in which the cars all hit the gas at the same exact time when a light turns green vs waiting on everyone's reaction times. That alone would reduce traffic in urban areas immensely.

[jacob]

It's possible and common to model traffic hydrodynamically. Shockwaves and rarefaction waves become possible once a certain density (distance between cars) is achieved. Any disturbance, like someone braking, will travel upstream as cars slow down (this is the shockwave). One technology that makes it possible for cars to drive closer together (higher density) is brake lights as this allows drivers to react faster. I have, however, noticed that some drivers don't pay attention to brake lights further up ahead thus decreasing their potential reaction time. Insofar they don't keep more of a distance, they are the ones who ignite the shockwave.

A shockwave [obviously] has a much higher density. Cars therefore have to slow down significantly. (I'm just describing what everybody knows (or rather kens) in hydro terms.) to reestablish a much lower density to start moving faster again. This density slowly increases over time until one driver screws up again and starts a new shockwave.

One interesting fact is that while shockwaves travel fast (comparable to the speed of traffic), the rarefaction wave is much slower on the order of 5mph. So if there has been a traffic accident that has backed up traffic causing all cars to stop and the road is opened up again, the rarefaction wave (as cars are leaving the site) travels backwards from the site of the accident at ~5mph. Thus, if you have been backed up for a while and start moving by doesn't pass the accident site until 1M further doewn the road, you can deduce that traffic opened up about 12 minutes ago.

Computers and lidars are essentially just a fancier version of brake lights. For smooth traffic it is critical that shockwaves aren't ignited. This would require information about speed changes to travel further back. If drivers paid more attention to brake lights up ahead and tailgated less that would already go a long way.

Add: For example, an automatic distance measurement to the next car + a clear signal (maybe a blinking light on the dashboard) showing if one was too close to prevent shockwaves would be relatively easy to implement. I presume bad/inconsiderate drivers would simply switch it off though. However, such a data series could be [voluntarily] tied to insurance premiums much like "sudden stops" and "max speeds" are now.

[Jason]

I'm only as good as the last guy I hear but his interview with Jim Keller seemed to argue against Lex's concerns. For instance, merging onto a busy highway, Would you want to be the passenger of a car being driven by a human prone to fear, panic, sub-standard eye hand coordination, improper judgment etc. or a vehicle able to dispassionately calculate the laws of physics and math in nano-seconds. The theoretical answer is the latter but the real life application answer is some sort of combination of the two. Like Intuitive Surgical did in the medical field. We readily adjusted to the use of GPS which although capable of mistakes is better than the hagstrom over the dashboard method. Plus roads are a known. They very rarely change. The grid is in place.

Which leads to data collection. The internet started as a place where we could search but now we are the searched. Cars just make sense as the next step in technological personal invasion sold to the consumer in the guise of progress. We get a new toy and Silicon Valley knows where we are when we are not on our computer. If it can be done, it will be done and some really smart people think the if is not really a factor. Michael Dell said we are only at the beginning. And although he never graduated college, I have to pay him some mind.

Edit: It ultimately comes down to decision making. AI allows for a collection and processing of data that humans cannot replicate. So the question is, would you rather drive alongside a drunken, texting, donut eating idiot using their feet to turn the steering wheel, or AI. Over a million people die on the road every year.