Five Years, Lord Willing

Where are you and where are you going?
HalfCent
Posts: 54
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:56 pm

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by HalfCent »

Find myself motivated from your post. Also you are an excellent writer.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Below is today's serving of a John Bogel critique on a well known financial porn website.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-l ... 2020-02-13

Putting aside investing strategy issues, the big takeaway from my perspective is the following: John Bogle thought small cap stock investing was too risky for the average investor. But here's the rub: it was not a statistical risk he was referring to but a psychological risk. That to me is huge because it implies that at the core of John Bogel's investing strategy was a psychological assumption about the average investor and that Vanguard's investing philosophy was not purely a statistical and historical model but included philosophical reflection on human nature. It was not the best system per se, it was the best system in consideration of psychological assumptions they made about the average investor.

There is nothing wrong with this approach. He is for all intent, correct. The average person doesn't handle financial loss well. The issue is, did it create a culture within the retail financial industry that infantilizes the average investor, a "I'm your mother and I know better" type of dynamic between the advisors and the client? Based on my personal experience, I believe it has. Instead of educating the average investors to their potentially deleterious behavioral tendencies in order to maximize their exposure to the market, they remove said tendencies from the equation and alter their investment model accordingly.

To me that is a fatal flaw and a disservice to those who want to mature as investors. Not that it was pernicious in intent. From all accounts John Bogle was a nice guy and has probably convinced all three members of the trinity to index by this point being they have so much other shit with which they need to deal. It's that it just keeps everyone stuck at a fixed psychological/maturation point throughout their investing lives i.e. it doesn't some people are capable of moving out of their original investing house.

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giskard
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:56 am
@Jason

Thinking on similar lines lately....maybe I'm just bored from the grind but I've been doing the same thing for years. Shovel money into index funds (US total stock market / international / bonds at 60/30/10 ratio) and ignore it.

I realized that with a few successful speculative bets (call options, buying FOMO stocks like SPCE/TSLA, etc.) I could significantly alter my own timeline....I'm not sure if you've ever looked into call options but its very possible to get +100% returns on a few lucky bets. How much of your portfolio you want to allocate is all up to risk tolerance.
I've started to do this too and seen huge gains. Buying LEAPs on cloud software stocks allows you to pick up a lot of leverage. It worries me because yes it is easy to make bullish bets in a bull market and make money. But buying calls has 100% downside risk if the market tanks, or even just goes sideways.

I'm starting to think it is going to pay to get a little bit more sophisticated with these strategies and buy spreads. E.g. SPCE JAN 15 2021 CALL $30 for $800 a contract, and then buy a SPEC JAN 15 2021 PUT $20 for $500 a contract and you at least limited downside risk to some degree. Also, if the price fluctuates a lot and temporarily goes down you can sell the put halfway through and maybe profit on both contracts.

I'm also considering starting to hold some chunk of cash to sell credit spreads. My feeling is that I can make money on the premium in a bull market but the spread protects downside risk if there is a sudden sell off, and does let one keep some cash around while employing it to good effect.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

The other night, I woke up to some weird sounds. It sounded human. But not really. Then I realized, it was John Bogle. Laughing. Hysterically. At me.

This exogenous bullshit has completely fucked my shit up. I know its not about me, but to me, it is. At least 9/11 was over in an hour. At least the crazy ass portion of it. This shit is going to drag out for god knows how long. And no more talk about progress. Here we are, trillion dollar companies, artificial intelligence up our collective wazoos, on the brink of space travel for shits and giggles and suddenly, blammo, the whole god damn world gets knocked back on its heels because some idiot in a wet market decides to lick a salmon's dirty asshole and not one PHD lab coat wearing eye dropper holding motherfucker can riddle us this out of it. And this just goes to prove the only reason to ever consider embarking on a cruise ship is if you are contemplating getting rid of a spouse. I bet there was at least one guy on one of those Carnival Cruises who planned on tossing his wife off the Lido Deck only now to be quarantined in a windowless room with her hacking up blood for days on end. That's got to be a serious kick in the nuts.

I'm also thinking what Magic Johnson was to AIDS, The Pope could be to coronavirus. I'm not saying he has it, but there is suspiciously very little info coming out of The Vatican. That shot of him with the handkerchief over his mouth? Not good. Along with cruise ships, airplanes, hotels, Chinese buffets, I would add "underneath the Pope's balcony" as places to avoid. I don't think I would even fist bump him at this point. I would hate to leave The Pope hanging, but I got to think of my health first. I know its their policy to mix with the diseased but eventually that shit catches up with you. And if he does have it, that's going to put a real strain on the already tense Italian/Chinese relationship.

J_
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2011 4:12 pm
Location: Netherlands/Austria

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by J_ »

Bogle laughing at you, haha.
Yes Jason, indexes are down.
Yes, shit happens always, not only to others, but to you and me too. We all hope to escape the Corona virus, or the flu or...But now and then you/me does not escape. And then.. just carry that misfortune, it will go over (or not). And what a pleasure to construct it as a bad dream as you do, or see the humor-side of it. Or just realize how long me/you have already lived in wealth and joy...

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Thank you for your fatalism. It was surprisingly uplifting. Like a wind beneath absurdity's wings lifting it to unfathomable heights before it crashes like a Boeing plane into the desert of a Islamic fundamentalist country.

It appears The Pope is OK. I actually enjoy Roman Catholic writers. Aquinas. George Weigel. But I have to admit, I'm not a big fan of this Pope. He seems like an asshole. And an extremely dour one in that. Like if Abe Vigoda became the pope. Just always with the moon dog face. He seems like the type of guy who would make sure he always got the biggest slice of birthday cake even if it wasn't his birthday especially since he now wears something remsembeling a birthday hat every fucking day. Anyways, it appears there will be no black smoke coming from the Vatican for the time being. You have to think the Bishops were already maneuvering behind the scenes. That place is worse than the US congress when it comes to politics. There's some big swinging dicks under those robes. Unfortunately, too many of the wrong people have seen them. But that's neither here nor there.

George the original one
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by George the original one »

The Viking of 6th Ave, Moondog the musician

Image

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Some people are just different. I'm not. I'm completely the same as everyone else.

I found this interview with Sonny Rollins very interesting. And I believe there was some ERE in there - living alone, without television, finding purpose after he couldn't play the sax anymore.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... rview.html

George the original one
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by George the original one »

Damn good interview!

Cheepnis
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Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:52 am

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Cheepnis »

Thanks for sharing that interview. Sonny has and always will be the man.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

This is some Great Depression bullshit. One month ago I'm a cocky douche. Now I'm back to just douche. Fucked by the flu. Of all goddam things. I got too much life left to toss in the towel and not enough left to not give a shit. Covid 19. Fuck you. Really. This too shall pass? Fucking better.

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Feel better, brah.

slowtraveler
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Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by slowtraveler »

Are you being counted in the official numbers?

SavingWithBabies
Posts: 882
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:50 pm
Location: Midwest, USA

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by SavingWithBabies »

I thought Jason won the COVID-19 lottery there but I think on reread, he is more just pissed about it decimating his holdings. I got nothing to say over here. It sucks. But cheaper to buy in now at least? Hrm...

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

If crying on the inside is a symptom, I'm a goner.

chenda
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Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by chenda »

@Jason - you've years to go before 67, you'll be fine.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

I should have asked that fucking Ouija board whether I should buy Boeing.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by ertyu »

My asshole also hurts, I feel like we're spiritual brothers

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

Well brother, when it comes to assholes, mine feels likes a 737 Max filled with male porn stars flew straight into it.

Jason

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Post by Jason »

It was close, but ultimately I didn't have it in me to shit up the Covid-19 thread. Plus, I know JLF is busy with his plot points and has no time for this type of bullshit.
naturelover wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:44 am
The Olympics are postponed until next year - finally!
Being that the Olympics were to take place in Japan and their propensity for making people do really weird shit, I was assuming they would incorporate the virus into the events. Like the decathalon would now include hospital bed pushing, exchanging ventilators from old to young people, face mask knitting, food delivery in lock down neighborhoods, breaking up crowds of more than 10 people. As opposed to the usual pole vaulting, javelin, sprinting etc. The medals would be based on testing - no symptoms you get Gold, mild would be Silver, severe Bronze, death elimination. I bet it would increase ratings because no one watches that shit anymore. Zoom video and Clorox could sponsor being that everyone else is like Chapter fucking 11 at this point.

Ok. Now that's out of my system. I had some symptoms but after a teleconference with my doctor, I was assured I don't have the virus. But who knows. Whatever the case is, I do have something. At least he didn't bring up the fact that I owed him a shit sample.

Psychologically, I have exited my Camus existential dread "Plague" phase and now am just fucking angry/depressed. And enough videos of people pressing their noses against hospital glass looking at new born babies and Nana dying. Is nothing private anymore. Although the one with Italian politicians swearing at people playing outdoor ping pong was funny. I'm assuming it wasn't Seppia. He seems to like food and travel.

On a positive note, I have a new favorite quote:

"The best for man were not to have been born and not to have seen the light of the sun; but, if once born (the second best for him is) to pass through the gates of death as speedily as may be." Theognis. Sophocles later cut it down to "Not to have been born exceeds every reckoning."

This life is such a bread basket of bullshit. I was fortunate never to have to serve in war, but now I got this Biblical nonsense sticking a pin in my balloon. I went down an Elvis Presley rabbit hole. Man what a talent. He was Elvis and was sick of shit. Then died on the can. 42. I remember being with my grandfather when it happened. He said "He's dead?" Geez. What a shame." He liked Chuck Mangione. I remember the day he died. His idiot brother couldn't shut up about how he saw a dog run up a flag pole on The Johnny Carson Show the night before.

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