dull numbers journal

Where are you and where are you going?
10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Sun Oct 28, 2018 3:20 am

My pics are likely to be gone in 5 years, so I put some 'old school' graphics.
Past 12 months savings vs liabilities: one 'x' = ~ 7000 PLN

date liabilities assets stocks bonds
Q4 17 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxx
Q1 18 _xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Q2 18 _xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Q3 18 __xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm

Mid November numbers:
-------------------
Liabilities: 198,590
Cashable assets : 130,300
Stock assets : 222,578
NW : 154,288
Cashable/liabiilities ratio : 65,6%

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:30 am

This month I've done some investments - I've bought 3,6 kW PV system. But can I really treat this as an investment?
This caused cashable asset drop.

Mid December numbers:
-------------------
Liabilities: 198,517
Cashable assets : 116,500
Stock assets : 238,635
NW : 156,618
Cashable/liabiilities ratio : 58,68%

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:16 pm

It is time to sum up 2018 year. I'm definitely happy with my savings achievements. My debt is under control. I can pay over 60% of my mortgage in a week without touching my retirement savings. This is only a result of my savings. The only negative case in 2018 is my investment results. My stock portfolio brought me a loss. My money goals for 2019 look easy - i'm going to incease my NW > 200K and my portfolio > 400K. The real goal is to track my investment result and increase its profitability.
Ultimate 2018 results:
Cashable assets : 120,200
Stock assets : 240,900
NW : 162,500
12 m increase : 48,000

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:45 pm

date_____________liabilities_________________assets______________stocks_________bonds
Q4 17 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxx
Q1 18 _xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Q2 18 _xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Q3 18 __xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Q4 18 ___xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|||xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx|xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

wolf
Posts: 898
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by wolf » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:22 am

Thanks for the update 10cents! You have well done, haven't you? If I have calculated correctly, you have increased your NW by about 42% p.a.? That's huge! And your goal for this year is also ambitious. What are the main drivers behind the increase of your NW? Savings of course, but also your real estate?

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:54 pm

@wolf, I started my saving with low level, so this year good increase ratio was very simple. I don't invest in real estate, my horizon is only 5-10 years. My NW was increased by massive savings (saving ratio ~ 70%) and some underpriced stocks - you know, some political issues made stock market in Poland very fragile, prices are unstable and this caused some good opportunities to buy profitable shares like with 0,2 P/BV.

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:25 pm

That was month to clear "dead bodies from the closed". I had to pay for 2018/19 additional payments (also credit card). I tried to estimate my saving ratio, and it was low:

Cashable assets : 123,220
Stock assets : 243,470
NW : 168,490
1 m increase : 5990
12 m increase : 45,170

Combined salary: 10,300 PLN
My saving ratio was: 58,1%
One can see that 12 m increase was affected by stock looses 1/12 of 12 m increase was only 3764 PLN.
Non-stock profit ~ 200 PLN = 0,05% of portfolio.
So there is only one engine to pull me ahead.

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:23 pm

February was full of sun (considering winter in Poland and my PV produced 189 kWk ( 51 kWh/kwp)). On the money side, another month of massive saving and some loss from stock portfolio. I've also set aside some extra money for this year holidays.

Cashable assets : 124,100
Stock assets : 247,673
NW : 173,935
1 m increase : 5445
12 m increase : 42,868

Saving ratio : 50,9%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 3572 (terrible, because of good investment result in 2018 and bad one in 2019)

Almost forgot, I've got 7% pay rise :)

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 720
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:20 am

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:52 pm

Congrats on the raise! My family in Rzeszow reports very nice weather the past month.

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:06 pm

Spring is finally here in Poland. Temperature is mild 15-19 C, my PV installation is working very effective. 275 kWh in March is ~ 80% of my monthly need. Only stock market is limping but not falling. I'm in the middle of asset transfer process from taxable to non taxable securities account. I did utilized my non taxable limit for 2019 year.

Cashable assets : 126,600
Stock assets : 251,578
NW : 180,405
1 m increase : 6470
12 m increase : 43,402

Saving ratio : 62,5%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 3616 (terrible, because stock market is moody, people tend to keep cash or (new fashion - invest in apartments for rent)). i'm not convinced about apartments for rent, looks for me like short lasting fashion, but I can be wrong.

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Wed May 08, 2019 1:18 pm

Another month of good life, decent salary and weak investment. The only increase of my money possesion is due to saving, stock market is on a downhill. There are no "new" money on polish stock market and shares go down. Maybe another time :(

Cashable assets : 124,600
Stock assets : 259,042
NW : 187,001
1 m increase : 6600
12 m increase : 45,028

Saving ratio : 63,4%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 3752

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:39 pm

May, the month I love the most, the beginning of summer, but this year dissapointed me. Both weather and stock market. "Sell in may and go away", but what to do if you want to invest in a long way? I lack knowledge of active allocation.
I keep accumulating.

Cashable assets : 126,900
Stock assets : 260,770
NW : 191,437
1 m increase : 4400 (+6400 savings, -2000 investments)
12 m increase : 44,560

Saving ratio : 60,4%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 3713

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:03 pm

H1 summary. I should be happy, my savings are 2 times high my mortgage. Nice feeling. It is time to celebrate and it is time to go on vacations. The plan? 2 weeks of cycling in Hungary with eating watermelon, paprika and plums. I love it, I feel good in this country, but language impossible to learn. The only one thing that destroys my good mood is that it can be one of the last vacations with my teen kids. Empty nest syndrome is on my doorstep. It will be hard to overcome.
June numbers:

Cashable assets : 129,120
Stock assets : 261,702
NW : 195,586
1 m increase : 4100 (+3500 savings, +600 dividend)
12 m increase : 45,514

Saving ratio : 37,4%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 3792

(saving ration is so low because of holidays set aside money)

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:53 pm

Vacations were great and even cheap. 800 euro for 2 weeks for 3 persons including everything. I dont dare to say a single word about stock market in Poland. It is still declining.I come up with a decision - not to fight with the market, not try to predict which stocks are better,but gradually transfer asset to index founds. Maybe it is late, maybe it is a lesson for me.
July numbers:

Cashable assets : 133,140
Stock assets : 263,711
NW : 200,147 (!!!!!!)
1 m increase : 4560 (+6500 savings, -1950 losses)
12 m increase : 49,194

Saving ratio : 66,2%, 1/12 of my 12 months increase = 4099

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 720
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:20 am

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:53 pm

How could it be that the Polish stocks are still losing? I thought economic expansion in Poland > most of Europe.

10cents
Posts: 45
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:42 pm
Location: Poland

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 10cents » Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:00 pm

The problem with polish stock market is simple = there are no new money and even current money are leaving stock market. Why? Many reasons.
i) Individual saving are moving from stock to real estate market. Everybody wants to buy a flat and rent it - new fashion in Poland (real estate bubble ?)
ii) People are "hungry" to consume. 2 cars in a family is a must. Cars/people factor is 2 times as in Germany. Year after year over 1 mln (used) cars are bought. People wants to have NOW, not later.
iii) Some political reasons discouraged people from retirement saving (only 6% of working people have retirement saving with average amount 10,000 PLN (2,500 USD).
iv) vast majority of private companies are in their development phase - so they dont pay dividend - they invest or transform to new economy.
Everybody wants to spend now, have now, nobody thinks about retirement years.
But changes are comming. There is new like '401' programme starting this year. The number of cars is so big, that people start to switch toward buses or trains because of traffic jams and lack of parking places. The number of people who want to rent their flat for money is 2 times bigger than the number of people who prefer to rent than buy a flat.

User avatar
Stahlmann
Posts: 597
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:05 pm

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by Stahlmann » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:03 pm

i) prolly just aversion to stock market. pretty new vehicle so shit can be crazy anyway. 25 yrs (or even less) of capital market can frighten off people. of course, if something is older, it doesn't make it better. I generally meant influence which could be achieved by Independent Individual Investors Group(s), how they treat pump and dumps, etc.

ii) ERE (or cheapskate)-biased point in your post. 40% of people live anyway away from metro areas. most jobs are in metro area. no public transport from rural areas or its constant deletion due to... eckhm you know my 2 kryptonite so I don't wanna go into this issue for the n-th time.

ok, I somehow wait for debunking this point, because maybe most cars are owned by cities residents (I haven't checked).

ii) ok, just stupid (behaviour of most people). anyway, stock market is not special bonanza to make you rich. of course, I also would like to enjoy free ride on some local version of sp500 (yes, even with lower yield).

iv) also neocolonisation. American/Ist World companies can have enormous profits... because they somehow "harvest their hay" somewhere else on this planet.

I read prolly capital drainage is a big issue anyway.
Zgodnie z raportem, ponad 80 proc. transferów to oszustwa fakturowe w wymianie handlowej. "Głównymi beneficjentami tych praktyk są korporacje międzynarodowe, w tym firmy niemieckie z szacunkiem około 30 mld zł rocznie, czyli 33 proc. wszystkich nielegalnych transferów.
...
Ponadto - dodał - "w Polsce podatek dochodowy płacony przez firmy jest mniejszy niż w większości państw Europy Zachodniej, a w dodatku wielu inwestorów zagranicznych korzysta z ulg podatkowych".
(google translate this for yourself, sorry for lack of translation)
https://podatki.gazetaprawna.pl/artykul ... olsce.html

so we have lower taxes than the west, because we don't offer/have social net... but capitalists still move away. this is fucking joke.

ok, I somehow wait for debunking this point, because somebody can say that most profits/sales made in USA and other 1st World countries.

v) [housing matters]
The number of people who want to rent their flat for money is 2 times bigger than the number of people who prefer to rent than buy a flat.
what's your reasoning behind this?
rent prices are crazy. just check wykop for memes or students groups on FB. It isn't about reliability of my given "sources", but about occurence of problem which is pretty... common.
I don't see there competition between flat owners, which should drive rent prices down.
This simply doesn't happen.

2Birds1Stone
Posts: 720
Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:20 am

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:25 pm

Rents in southern Poland are very cheap. You can rent a kawalerka (studio) near city center for ~800-1k PLN/month in my city. That's not too bad at all.

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Stahlmann
Posts: 597
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:05 pm

Re: dull numbers journal

Post by Stahlmann » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:10 pm

I don't wanna waste for quarelling with you. I see your points to some extent. I also understood in my case emigration is the key (I don't wanna brag or derail this topic), but simple being involved in industry in country with... no industry is waste of the time).

If you wanna have couterpoints for your worldview:
1. No jobs in southern part of PL, if you mean Podkarpacie. Only "aviation complex" based on cooperation/off set with greatest ally, but they somehow don't pay much.
a) of course, in Śląskie it's much better, it's "technical capital" of this country, but no such offers of housing. Also, prolly pollution (yes, you can't have all in life, but after seeing map on European air pollution pollution, they don't have this in for example Ruhr area. Don't tell me I'm pretentious, just for the fact I don't wanna have lung cancer and I was born with specific signs in passport.)
2. Spending 1/3 of your pay on housing is a bit anti-ERE (from PL native perspective). You must remeber that 3000 is not achieved by... half of the population.

I think we know each other's cards in this game.
Let's "work" on what can be done.

I hope one day to come USA just to steal some job on H1B-visa (no kids, any ties atm, but not smart -.-" and somehow not interested in politics).

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