There must be some doomers reading these forums. I am certainly one. I believe that with global warming, peak oil, and water shortages, our lifestyles will change significantly and many people will struggle to get food and shelter for themselves and their families.
So, I wonder if ERE is a luxury for a time of great abundance? If we will see the effects of peak oil in a few years like Lloyds of London, the US Military, and others think, wouldn't it be wise to put off retirement and save up as much as possible before the inevitable decline?
Early Retirement and the End of the World as We Know it
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
I'm a reformed doomer. ERE will be useful in the sense that the lifestyle is much more resilient than the middle class consumer. It is my intent that people learn to be resourceful. I think there's a little bit too much focus on saving a sufficiently large portfolio from time to time. No portfolio is safe. Safety is in the skills we carry.
I think of it as a win-win situation or maybe a win-not lose too much situation. If civilization comes out of this well, the portfolio will carry the day. If it doesn't, it is likely that an ERE minded individual will be a community asset when people don't know how to get a problem solved without pulling out their credit card.
I think of it as a win-win situation or maybe a win-not lose too much situation. If civilization comes out of this well, the portfolio will carry the day. If it doesn't, it is likely that an ERE minded individual will be a community asset when people don't know how to get a problem solved without pulling out their credit card.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
In terms of the financial aspects ... unless the peak oil/overpopulation/climate change cascade means a return to the dark ages, that is, trade and commerce breaks down, there will be a way to earn interest. It may take a different form. As long as people are on top of things, this will be a great financial opportunity... Let me put that more realistically: wealth will be significantly redistributed.
I would try to derive some micro behavior out of the Club of Rome models. They seem to have been fairly accurate so far.
I would try to derive some micro behavior out of the Club of Rome models. They seem to have been fairly accurate so far.
I agree with Jacob. If the future is not as gloomy as some expect, then the portfolio accumulated by ERE-minded people will put them ahead of most people. If the future is indeed gloomy, then the practical skills developed by ERE-minded people will still put them ahead of most people. I think that ERE and its teachings does prepare us for a wide range of possible scenarios.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
That said, it would be interesting to know what people are doing knowing what's coming.
My so far modest efforts involve planning to move to the "north-coastal" US. Getting dual citizenship. Not being car dependent, and not having children(*).
My food production plans are very much lacking. DW is doing something, but I estimate our current efforts could barely feed us for a day.
Instead of pursuing the high tech computerization of everything I did a decade ago, I have also flip flopped 100% on technology and I'm now pursuing "hand tools" and human powered solutions as much as possible. (Appropriate technology)
(*) This is likely equally driven by me not valuing "family" as much as average as much as by science.
My so far modest efforts involve planning to move to the "north-coastal" US. Getting dual citizenship. Not being car dependent, and not having children(*).
My food production plans are very much lacking. DW is doing something, but I estimate our current efforts could barely feed us for a day.
Instead of pursuing the high tech computerization of everything I did a decade ago, I have also flip flopped 100% on technology and I'm now pursuing "hand tools" and human powered solutions as much as possible. (Appropriate technology)
(*) This is likely equally driven by me not valuing "family" as much as average as much as by science.
@Budro
TEOTWAWKI----(The end of the world as we know it). Popular acronym on the internet these days.
Sure, we can all agree it's coming to some extent. But isn't the question at hand whether or not it is coming naturally, or being "implemented upon us" by TPTB (The powers that be)??
So you can be either a "Doomer" or a "Conspiracy Theorist".
(Or both).
Or as they say at a lot of the CT websites, you can just be a "sheeple".
TEOTWAWKI----(The end of the world as we know it). Popular acronym on the internet these days.
Sure, we can all agree it's coming to some extent. But isn't the question at hand whether or not it is coming naturally, or being "implemented upon us" by TPTB (The powers that be)??
So you can be either a "Doomer" or a "Conspiracy Theorist".
(Or both).
Or as they say at a lot of the CT websites, you can just be a "sheeple".
@HSpencer: People usually are sheeple, look no further than finance for ample evidence. The word "conspiracy" has become a mere buzz word designed to control and shut down arguments... With an effective TV PR campaign seems people can be convinced of any ridiculous falsehood. THAT is much closer to the definition of conspiracy than how it is so often misused today.
@Budro: put off retirement and save up WHAT; currency, equities, gold, tools, land... all of the above? If things really go bad most traditional investments would likely be worthless... If you were wrong, that's life years you'll never get back.
I live in a sparsely populated area. A cheap, easy and quick way to put myself ahead of 90% of my neighbors was to build a quality reference library on local forage. I'd bet 95% of these food sources are unknown to 98% of the population. Some small protection... But I have no illusion about how incredible difficult it would to thrive on a hunter/gatherer lifestyle. The traditional peoples were incredibly tough and clever.
Skill, intelligence, luck, preparation, wealth... Probably the most important things is your ability to use your brain and the will to live.
It depends on the level of the collapse. Here's an interesting breakdown from here:
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/f ... lapse.html
Stages of Collapse
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.
@Budro: put off retirement and save up WHAT; currency, equities, gold, tools, land... all of the above? If things really go bad most traditional investments would likely be worthless... If you were wrong, that's life years you'll never get back.
I live in a sparsely populated area. A cheap, easy and quick way to put myself ahead of 90% of my neighbors was to build a quality reference library on local forage. I'd bet 95% of these food sources are unknown to 98% of the population. Some small protection... But I have no illusion about how incredible difficult it would to thrive on a hunter/gatherer lifestyle. The traditional peoples were incredibly tough and clever.
Skill, intelligence, luck, preparation, wealth... Probably the most important things is your ability to use your brain and the will to live.
It depends on the level of the collapse. Here's an interesting breakdown from here:
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/f ... lapse.html
Stages of Collapse
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
So I submit (based on reading 'A history of interest rates' that the western world has actually never collapsed beyond stage 2 (where commerce has been reduced to armored caravans). That is not to say that the political system can't collapse. It has just never left a vacuum. It has always been replaced with another political entity (e.g. feudal lords and chiefs after the Roman Empire and its finances went down the drain).
Suppose I phrase the question like this:
Suppose you have already reached the point that you can retire. Believing there to be a global economic slide beginning in a few years (if not already begun), do you continue to work to build up more assets or retire now? The extra assets could be considered a doomy day fund.
Looking at the above responses to my originally phrased question, I think that everyone would retire now.
Jacob and CestLaVie feel that even in a downturn, ones existing assets can still provide income, food, etc.
It sounds like JohnnyH thinks working extra is a gamble that most likely will not pay off.
Being fiscally conservative, I'm inclined to continue working. I am probably at the ER point (not ERE because I am 46). I am definitely working for 6 more months, but I am thinking of switching to a less unpleasant job and if I do I will commit myself to it for two years.
As for preparing, I have rural forest land and have started an orchard with apple, cherry, plum, prune, and fig trees. I too have foraging and am working on identifying the plants on my property. Unfortunately I can identify stinging nettle way too well. I plan on building an earth-sheltered cabin with an earthen roof and a rocket mass heater once I retire. With the cabin, I could sell my mortgage-free house and be very FI. I don't expect a sudden collapse, but my several hundred pounds of rice, beans, and wheat is cheap insurance. Finally, I have a couple rifles and handguns and am learning how to shoot them. Shooting is a hobby and is fun in a mindless way.
Suppose you have already reached the point that you can retire. Believing there to be a global economic slide beginning in a few years (if not already begun), do you continue to work to build up more assets or retire now? The extra assets could be considered a doomy day fund.
Looking at the above responses to my originally phrased question, I think that everyone would retire now.
Jacob and CestLaVie feel that even in a downturn, ones existing assets can still provide income, food, etc.
It sounds like JohnnyH thinks working extra is a gamble that most likely will not pay off.
Being fiscally conservative, I'm inclined to continue working. I am probably at the ER point (not ERE because I am 46). I am definitely working for 6 more months, but I am thinking of switching to a less unpleasant job and if I do I will commit myself to it for two years.
As for preparing, I have rural forest land and have started an orchard with apple, cherry, plum, prune, and fig trees. I too have foraging and am working on identifying the plants on my property. Unfortunately I can identify stinging nettle way too well. I plan on building an earth-sheltered cabin with an earthen roof and a rocket mass heater once I retire. With the cabin, I could sell my mortgage-free house and be very FI. I don't expect a sudden collapse, but my several hundred pounds of rice, beans, and wheat is cheap insurance. Finally, I have a couple rifles and handguns and am learning how to shoot them. Shooting is a hobby and is fun in a mindless way.
-
jacob
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
It depends on how you define assets. I consider my primary asset to
0) Being healthy (a biggie!!)
1) Being able to spend very little to satisfy needs.
2) Being able to make money in at least 3 different ways.
The important thing is having many tricks up one's sleeve and being resilient. I think this is safer than "bigger and stronger" so to speak.
My ultimate goal is not to depend on money at all although I realize that for some things it is the only way and in other ways, buying is more efficient, e.g. it's more efficient to buy a microwave oven than making your own.
In other words, there are many different kinds of capital. Our current worlds holds monetary capital in the highest regard believing that it can substitute for pretty much any other kind of capital. This will not always hold true. My goal is to diversify into as many different kinds of capital as possible.
(More about that in Section 4.1 of the book. I can't wait until it gets out
).
0) Being healthy (a biggie!!)
1) Being able to spend very little to satisfy needs.
2) Being able to make money in at least 3 different ways.
The important thing is having many tricks up one's sleeve and being resilient. I think this is safer than "bigger and stronger" so to speak.
My ultimate goal is not to depend on money at all although I realize that for some things it is the only way and in other ways, buying is more efficient, e.g. it's more efficient to buy a microwave oven than making your own.
In other words, there are many different kinds of capital. Our current worlds holds monetary capital in the highest regard believing that it can substitute for pretty much any other kind of capital. This will not always hold true. My goal is to diversify into as many different kinds of capital as possible.
(More about that in Section 4.1 of the book. I can't wait until it gets out
).-
George the original one
- Posts: 5406
- Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
- Location: Wettest corner of Orygun
@Budro, personally I think that once you can live comfortably on a SWR of 3%, working a few more years to further lower your SWR and insure against every possible eventuality might become counter-productive. If civilization really falls, I don't think it will make a difference whether you have $1M or $10M in the bank. What will make a difference is whether you have the knowledge and experience to grow your own food, hunt, forage, mend tools, prepare simple herbal remedies to treat common ailments, and administer basic medical care without relying on a doctor. If civilization does not fall, then I feel like a 3% SWR will carry me through a lot of unpleasantness.
Looking at everything, the future casts a less than optimistic shadow.
I was born in 1945, just prior to the end of WWII. I came on the scene so to speak AFTER Two (2) World Wars, and one (1) Great Depression. I am 65 now. My lifetime was the thrust of the greatest moving prosperity the United States has seen. However, although I missed the wars and depression, I was close enough to those who went through them to have been well briefed on what it was like. I often ask myself "why" was I born just right to get the good slice of it all? If I live until 2020, and nothing bad happens, then I will have been here at the right time. If we go economic collapse, or WWIII or both, prior to my death, then I, too, will see some of it, although it will be easier for me to take as I have little time left. However, I must see my children and grandchildren have to face another round of hard times.
While it is hard for me to be pessimistic, I do have some preparations and talk preps to my kids.
I am positioned to survive a good while, but I am afraid for their not thinking closely enough about the future.
I do not think doom and gloom. However, I am becoming more and more tuned to the conspiracy side of the house, and less to poor choices and inadequate planning by the government we have now. I wish I did not think that way, but it's sort of in our face now.
I was born in 1945, just prior to the end of WWII. I came on the scene so to speak AFTER Two (2) World Wars, and one (1) Great Depression. I am 65 now. My lifetime was the thrust of the greatest moving prosperity the United States has seen. However, although I missed the wars and depression, I was close enough to those who went through them to have been well briefed on what it was like. I often ask myself "why" was I born just right to get the good slice of it all? If I live until 2020, and nothing bad happens, then I will have been here at the right time. If we go economic collapse, or WWIII or both, prior to my death, then I, too, will see some of it, although it will be easier for me to take as I have little time left. However, I must see my children and grandchildren have to face another round of hard times.
While it is hard for me to be pessimistic, I do have some preparations and talk preps to my kids.
I am positioned to survive a good while, but I am afraid for their not thinking closely enough about the future.
I do not think doom and gloom. However, I am becoming more and more tuned to the conspiracy side of the house, and less to poor choices and inadequate planning by the government we have now. I wish I did not think that way, but it's sort of in our face now.
-
ScottfromMenominee
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 3:00 am
I don't think it makes sense to save any longer for a collapse. It only reaffirms that we should retire while the monetary system is still in tact.
If business breaks down and farming is not taking place and bread is not being made, even gold will be worthless. The only reason luxury and wants are worth anything is because everyone's needs are being meet.
If there was a modern day famine, from a bug that couldn't be killed or water shortage, it would not be surprising to see the monetary system fall. All of society is based off abundant food and water(another concern is that all the crops in America are almost all the same, more possible for a widespread dissaster). Lack of food or central bank hacking could well destroy the existing monetary system.
I believe something like this will not ruin the richest or the government. The richest will be fine because that have enough hard assests that hold value (even scrap products hold value). The government will be fine because they basically can enslave the population in a time of crisis through shear force and they can justify if by saying people are stealing...food? Does anyone think a couple of shot guns can hold ground against the bullet proof vehicles and armour that we send to the gulf? How about a missle? The bad part is that if there is a crises, do you think anyone with the sercurity of a government job would risk it to ensure that justice is taking place? Or will they follow orders?
I think a crises of this scale might provide the "powers that be" to finally change the freedom and anonymity of paper money to an electronic chip to help keep everyone "safe" from credit fraud or to track food rations. Then force all of society to accept the chip or be forced outside of the monetary system (I am also sure they would create laws that keep people from using other currency...I think it is called the IRS?)
I would like to think if something as "crazy" as this ever happened we could live in the hills, but I think the authorities would eventually come looking, just like they paint any other group that lives in the hills and doesn't pay taxes as "crazy people" while they show us one sided views of the stand off:)
How about that for Doom! That doesn't even address what I think about Peak oil or global warming. Peak oil is coming, but I think it will take decades before it begins to collapse anything. I believe the sun causes more global warming than humans could ever hope to compare with and I believe most change is related to its activity, but I agree that it is a fact that all enery conversion releases heat and the chemical we release increase the problem.
If business breaks down and farming is not taking place and bread is not being made, even gold will be worthless. The only reason luxury and wants are worth anything is because everyone's needs are being meet.
If there was a modern day famine, from a bug that couldn't be killed or water shortage, it would not be surprising to see the monetary system fall. All of society is based off abundant food and water(another concern is that all the crops in America are almost all the same, more possible for a widespread dissaster). Lack of food or central bank hacking could well destroy the existing monetary system.
I believe something like this will not ruin the richest or the government. The richest will be fine because that have enough hard assests that hold value (even scrap products hold value). The government will be fine because they basically can enslave the population in a time of crisis through shear force and they can justify if by saying people are stealing...food? Does anyone think a couple of shot guns can hold ground against the bullet proof vehicles and armour that we send to the gulf? How about a missle? The bad part is that if there is a crises, do you think anyone with the sercurity of a government job would risk it to ensure that justice is taking place? Or will they follow orders?
I think a crises of this scale might provide the "powers that be" to finally change the freedom and anonymity of paper money to an electronic chip to help keep everyone "safe" from credit fraud or to track food rations. Then force all of society to accept the chip or be forced outside of the monetary system (I am also sure they would create laws that keep people from using other currency...I think it is called the IRS?)
I would like to think if something as "crazy" as this ever happened we could live in the hills, but I think the authorities would eventually come looking, just like they paint any other group that lives in the hills and doesn't pay taxes as "crazy people" while they show us one sided views of the stand off:)
How about that for Doom!
That doesn't even address what I think about Peak oil or global warming. Peak oil is coming, but I think it will take decades before it begins to collapse anything. I believe the sun causes more global warming than humans could ever hope to compare with and I believe most change is related to its activity, but I agree that it is a fact that all enery conversion releases heat and the chemical we release increase the problem.