Nomadic-ERE Year 5 - Wanderlust Prevails

[Seppia]

Great stuff
Doradinhas is Portuguese for Sea Bream, a fantastic fish that’s a staple in the local diet.

I would imagine AirBnb hosts are pretty desperate right now, you could easily make a power move and book a couple extra months for a hour half what you’re paying now.

Stay safe and keep us posted!

[2Birds1Stone]

I agree on a long stay like that. Not sure how much longer we will stay. Using next month to reassess.

[classical_Liberal]

Reads like you're rolling with the COVID punches pretty well. The happenstance of the new york outbreak after you left must really make you feel like you made the right move. I'll again reiterate that I wish i had some more defined plans that i had followed through on after my semi-ER, like you have. Are you feeling relaxed and energized? Adjusted to the new normal?

[2Birds1Stone]

Hey c_L!

Rolling with the punches is all we can do now

It was good to have something to look forward to for the period I wasn't working but wasn't yet traveling. Despite the plans not panning out nearly the way we thought, the planning provided a lot of mental stimulation and happiness in the process. I do wonder what it would have been like to do this trip without the whole COVID curve-ball, say a year earlier...not only would traveling around been possible, but we wouldn't had the economical situation on the back of our minds. That being said, I'm sure glad I did pull the trigger, and hindsight is always 20/20.

Currently feeling relaxed and grateful. This has been a big confirmation of how little I/we need to be happy and content with life. Safe shelter, access to clean drinking water and food, fresh air, and the health to move about and scratch my curiosity about the world. Minimizing possessions over the past year to live life out of a backpack has also proven to be a great exercise, and I don't miss any of my stuff, it's an incredibly freeing feeling, as I know you're aware (being someone who has moved a ton and can fit everything in a passenger vehicle!).

Being only 3 weeks into what was supposed to be a 12 month vagabonding experience, there is still hope that we will get to see and do some of the things we hoped to. As you may remember we had a plan B, C, and D.....and while none of them are exactly feasible with the world almost entirely locked down, sooner or later there will be other options vs. just staying put in Lisbon.

Financially all I can do is laugh now. I thought I had things pretty figured out, and then something as unpredictable as this happened. Good lesson for the future, and I'm sure it will continue teaching over the coming months and years. I feel fairly well positioned to ride the storm out, and with a little luck and a few short years of work will get the portfolio back to all time highs when the time is right. For now, going to keep rolling with the punches, and try to keep squeezing out the lemonade.

Edited to add - I wish there was an easier way to post pics here. The pixel rule + no way to bulk upload images makes it super painful. I've been able to share quite a bit over on my MMM journal because I can upload stuff with one click in Tapatalk.

[take2]

There are worst places to be than Portugal

I was actually visiting my parents in Braga during the last weekend of February after spending a week in Madrid for work. I almost cancelled my flight and stayed there but didn’t in the end. We went on lockdown in the UK about 2 weeks after that. We’re doing fine in London as of now - plenty of food, coffee, and wine and getting out for some daily exercise. My parents likewise stay in their small village which is good considering they’re high risk.

How did you find Sintra? I assume the Palacio de Pena and Castelo dos Mouros were closed? Have you managed to explore Cascais or Estoril at all? I think I may end up there in the near future on a semi-ERE myself. Not so much what you’re doing but rather take a (much) lower paying, lower stress job in Lisbon and improve my quality of life. Be able to head up north to my family’s farm on the weekends and maybe raise a couple of kids in Portugal.

[2Birds1Stone]

Hey @anesde! I can't think of a better place to be stuck right now, aside from maybe a 10+ acre homestead that could provide a ton of education and entertainment with little/no disruption from "normal". The weather has been mostly amazing, and there is so much to see, as you know. I am glad to hear you are safe! After spending a few weeks here, and most likely a few more months moving forward, I am loving it more and more.

Sintra was beautiful, the palaces and castles are closed, but many of the parks, trails, and forest areas remained open. We are planning to go back on Tuesday when the weather breaks (getting some rain in the coming days, finally). We have explored Cascais, walking from the train station all the way up to the southern border of the Cascais-Sintra National Park, along the bluffs. The silver lining to this whole pandemic here for us, is that the trains are all free right now (so are trams, buses, and metro). So we can visit Cascais, Sintra as much as we want without incurring any costs, even though 2 round trip tickets are only 9 Euro total, it still adds up. Not to mention there is nowhere to spend money in the area once you get there. We've been packing snacks and bottled water, and just exploring on foot. Yesterday we spent most of our time in Sintra doing the Red/Yellow loop that start in the historic center and takes you up fairly high around one of the castles, as well as Monserrate park.

I love your idea of downshifting and moving here. It seems like a wonderful place to raise a family. I did meet a local cyclist Youtuber (who helped me find a used bike!) and he is worried that this whole pandemic will really hurt the "safe" reputation Lisbon has. Apparently over the past few years there's been a huge influx of immigrants/migrants from Brazil, Pakistan, and other relatively developing countries, who all rely on tourism/services industry to make ends meet. Once those jobs have dried up (happening already), it is only a matter of time before crime picks up so people can feed themselves. Hope that isn't the case, but food for thought.

[2Birds1Stone]

Non Financial

Spoke with my parents back in NYC. Family is holding up ok all things considered. They are trying to help us get some things sorted with our potential quarantine locations in Poland.

I've written about this in the past, but for anyone new, we have two old residences in Poland. One is a small apartment in a large soviet era building with 160 apartments, not exactly the type of place you want to be stuck in quarantine (7th story apartment with a small lift), nor good for social distancing. But it's location is superb, 10 minute walk from the town square, and under normal circumstances it's amazing. Can bike anywhere in the city within 15-20 minutes.

The other place is outside of the city (technically not anymore as the city has expanded and it's now considered within city limits). It's a house my grandfather built himself. Very primitive, with a root cellar, attached glass greenhouse, one large room on the top floor with no bathroom for sleeping, and a downstairs which has an unfinished basement feel where there is a very basic kitchen with propane stove, propane tankless water heater, a rudimentary shower, and toilet, along with a small siting area with a 1970's couch. There is a well but the water is not safe for drinking. The house is on a property of approximately 1.5 acres, and has a small pond. There are 20+ blueberry bushes, apple trees, pear trees, cherry trees, raspberry plants, plum trees, red currant, black currant, gooseberry, a peach tree, a fence covered in grapes, wild mint everywhere, wild strawberries, walnuts, and hazelnuts, and I'm sure that I'm forgetting others. Back in soviet times, my grandparents would supplement their meager incomes with what they could harvest, selling some and bartering others. Canning and preserving fruit was something that I grew up watching them do. This would make for an excellent homestead. The property is located approximately 30-45 minutes away from the city center by bicycle, and about 25-30 minutes from the apartment I described earlier. Both sit empty aside from when my parents/uncles visit, or when my 95 year old grandfather has someone take him there to do some maintenance and gardening (till last year he was still doing that!).

My wife and I would love to bring the place back to its former glory. The greenhouse is used to grow tomatoes, cucumbers, and grapes every year. The well water is perfect for watering things in the summer. It's a lot of work to maintain the place. Back when I was a kid he had rows and rows of vegetables that were planted from seed/bulb/sapling, but as we grew up and spent less time there, and he got much older, it was just turned to grass. When I was a kid, he grew potatoes, carrots, radishes, turnips, cabbage, onions, dill, parsley, beets, scallion, corn, sweet peas, string-beans, zucchini and a few others. We would regularly pick stuff out of the ground and have it for dinner. There is also a large fire pit with a heavy iron grill top that he had welded years ago.

Given the craziness going on in the world we are strongly considering spending a huge chunk of our time there once we leave Portugal, at least through mid-fall. Expenses would be really low, likely under $1k/month for two people.

[CS]

That does sound like a perfect place to hide out for a year or two.

[Seppia]

Agreed, that second option sounds great!

[2Birds1Stone]

Thanks guys, a lot of hurdles to go before that can become a reality! But it's a very real option. Apparently sometime in the fall a seal broke around the gas/water heater fixture and my grandpa attempted a DIY repair, taking things apart. There is currently no gas/hot water on, and it's impossible to find someone to fix it with him in isolation and Poland under a very strict quarantine. Going to keep our finger on the pulse and try to get it resolved before we would attempt to make it over there.

Back to Portugal for a moment, it's important to look for a silver lining!

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/po ... n-60/53592

tl;dr - Pollution in Lisbon is down 60% YoY

Before the COVID-19 outbreak Lisbon was already doing a lot to improve it's carbon footprint and was awarded the "2020 European Green Capital Award"

https://ec.europa.eu/environment/europe ... rd-winner/

In contrast, Poland still burns a ton of coal, acid rain is a big problem, and Poles are not environmentally conscious as a rule of thumb.

[2Birds1Stone]

Musings

Still chugging along here in Lisbon as we entered our second month here in Portugal today! The state of emergency is being renewed until at least the 1st of May. Moved into our new flat on Thursday, and it's quite an upgrade from our last place. Very modern/rustic design, with a large balcony, lots of natural light, and the best part of all, tons of live plants. The owner is a Brazilian businesswoman (flowers) who only uses it for a few months out of the year, and the rest of the time it's managed by a property management company. She's actually supposed to be arriving from Brazil on the 13th of May, however due to Covid may postpone, which would mean the flat may be available after our original planned checkout date of May 7th.

Continue to do a lot of walking, photography (I'm pretty terrible, but it's been fun to learn), some running and cycling. Meeting with a new friend I met through the cycling community to take a ride this morning. So far enjoying having a bicycle. Travel over the Easter holiday 9th-13th is heavily restricted between municipalities, but should ease back up by Tuesday. Planning a hike from Sintra to Cascais through the national park if the weather permits next week.

I realized our spending here has been mostly front-loaded, and while our average cost is still over $100/day due to prepaying for accommodation, it should level off drastically (~$75/day total for two people) once we have an exit date to move to Poland. The latest we plan on leaving here would be June 7th, after extending for an additional month. Time will tell, can't make plans too far into the future at this point in time. Modeling finances for the remainder of 2020 looks promising, as spending should drop to below historic lows, by a significant margin. If markets stay flat through April, my personal WR will be <3% using TTM spending.

Hope everyone has a healthy, happy, and safe Easter/Passover holiday weekend.

[2Birds1Stone]

An update on the housing situation...owner of the apartment cancelled her trip, and we were able to extend through June 7th. Our housing is now paid for until we are ready to travel to Poland.

This doesn't give us a big window to get out of the Schengen zone and into Poland, by June 9th! Easy if we can find a flight, much harder traveling by land. Because my wife is not an EU citizen we have 90 days in Schengen outside of Poland. Once we get to Poland she *should* be fine for an additional 90 days before we have to apply for a spousal visa. The rules are muddy due to Covid-19, and we are not sure if it will complicate entry into the country. We will be scouring the flight/train/bus options in the coming weeks once the date gets closer, but have at least a date to target. May give up a day or two of accommodation here in order to give ourselves a better shot at making it in our 90 day window.

Woke up this morning to a nice $2,400 deposited in our checking account from Uncle Sam. Definitely helps offset most of our costs over the past 5 weeks =)

Parents have agreed to work on getting the gas/water situation fixed on the orchard, as soon as the quarantine restrictions are loosened in Poland. It sounds like we will be stuck in a government facility for 14 days before being released to our home city......this may change in the coming months though.

Aside from that life is good. Walking a ton, taking bike trips for fun, and still running a bit. Really need to incorporate some calisthenics into my weekly routine. Haven't done any resistance training in 5+ weeks!

[pk+]

In Poland, 14 day quarantine starts when you register in gov mobile app (perhaps there are some exceptions for non-smartphone people) and you spend it in your home. Police will call you on random time of day and request you to show in window, etc.

Gov facilities are supposed to keep only people that need monitoring and help (ie very sick, old). Although I would avoid them

[2Birds1Stone]

Thank you for that info! My parents told me that one of the LOT repatriation flights from western Europe was brought to Jasionka airport and then all passengers had to undergo 14 day quarantine in military resort at Jawor, on Solina before they are allowed home.

I spent some time this morning on Skyscanner and Google Flights and there are numerous flight options for June 7th from Lisbon to both Krakow and Warsaw, both direct as well as via UK. Tickets are about $100-150 each, so not bad either!

14 day quarantine on the orchard would be pretty easy. Enough space to exercise, sit outside, and get some productive cleaning/gardening done.

pk+, which part of Poland are you from?

[2Birds1Stone]

Musings

Bit of a mid-month update....

We've had some fantastic weather here the past few days, and today I took full advantage this morning with a 46 mile bike ride from Lisbon to Cascais, up to the southern entrance of Sintra national park, and back to Lisbon. Normally this distance is pretty easy on my road bike, which I am quite used to riding. But on a $200 MTB, it was quite the challenge =D especially after walking/hiking 70 miles in the past week.

Portugal renewed the state of emergency, as expected through May 2nd. Maybe we will get lucky and some things open up before we leave in June. Namely beaches, cafes, and parks for us. Overall we are quite happy here. Life is slow and simple, with plenty of time to relax and soak everything in. Costs have flattened for now, and our cost per day has dipped to $90 on our 40th day of travel. Can't believe it's already been 40 days! We have 7 full weeks left here before we leave, and plan to enjoy every single day.

This week we also received our stimulus check, and it was the full amount for a married couple. Definitely helps offset the initial costs of the trip! Our backup to Poland is likely to be a return to the USA to do a car-camping road trip, for an undetermined period of time. My dad has a spare work van that he's not using for the foreseeable future.......it will all depend on how things play out both in Poland/EU and the USA over the coming month or so.

Hope y'all are staying safe and healthy.

[classical_Liberal]

Well, I'm hoping for the best, but if you end up car camping we'll have to meet up this summer!

[2Birds1Stone]

Our costs look like they should level out to ~75 Euro/day longer term here. Not bad for two people renting through AirBnB and not being too frugal with grocery choices. There just isn't much else to spend money on.

...snip.....

I am considering trying to buy a used bicycle. Not too much space to store one, and I wouldn't be able to take it with me once we leave by bus/plane eventually, but I miss riding, and it seems like a great way to explore the further areas of the city, or even bike to Sintra, etc.

..snip....

We are up to 2,060 confirmed COVID cases with 23 deaths as of today.....compared to my home state of NY with 21,000 confirmed cases and 160 deaths......hope we made the right choice by bailing =D

...snip......

Musings

1) Yesterday marked 46 days since leaving NY, and as predicted our costs have already dropped to just a hair under $80/day. New projection shows that dropping to <$70/day by the time we leave Portugal in June. If we land in Poland that will drop further to ~$55-60/day by end of the summer, which is a huge geo-arbitrage win for living costs.

2) The bicycle proved to be an excellent purchase. I've been doing a long weekly ride on the weekends, and have made some local acquaintances through cycling. We also continue to walk a lot, with an 18.5 mile hike in Sintra this past week.

3) Crazy how these numbers have exploded, Portugal is up to 23,000 confirmed cases with 880 deaths, only 5 weeks later. While NY is at 288,000 confirmed cases and 22,000 deaths.......insane. Retrospectively we definitely made the right choice by bailing.

@c_L, done deal my friend. We are also hoping for the best right now. It looks like we will have to make a fairly last minute decision, but currently leaning toward flying to Poland via the UK, so long as flights are still available for our travel window. Poland still feels much safer than NY, and the rest of the country (USA) is still too locked down to make a long term road trip responsible/enjoyable.

This months financial recap will be an interesting one, as TTM spending has hit record lows since 2014, both individually and as a household. Looking at purely 2020 data (4 months), we should come in @ $6,200 spent, which is only $1550/month. Annualized that's only 1.08 JAFI per person!! We obviously can't go purely off of 4 months data, especially under these unprecedented circumstances, so the TTM numbers will be the ones to watch in the coming months, but we anticipate a sharp downward slope through the end of the year.

Mentally we are doing quite well, given the circumstances. Hiking, cooking, bike riding, reading, and walking a lot are basically business as usual for the wife and I. We do miss in person human interaction, going to a coffee shop, occasional happy hour, and the gym. Other than that, this is not too different from out normal lives. We discussed how much this would suck if we were not physically active and didn't enjoy cooking. How much Netflix can one person watch before losing their mind? We video chat through FB or WhatsApp with family and friends almost daily, which has been a big help in maintaining relationships and getting some social interaction with the outside world.

My brother runs a pharmacy in NYC and they finally received IgM/IgG COVID-19 tests yesterday. Him and his wife tested negative for antibodies, and her mom, who was a suspected case a few weeks ago, tested positive. In keeping tabs on the various related threads here, doesn't sound like there is consensus on the reliability of these tests, or the future immunity once someone has been infected, but an interesting data-point none the less.

[2Birds1Stone]

It's really hard to believe that this week will mark 7 months since I gave notice and left my career behind. For anyone who has been following more closely the past year, you'll remember that I also had a long family related trip to EU last summer, which was the gateway to pulling the plug. It feels like longer than 7 months since I've been a productive member of the workforce, with my last real assignment/project wrapping up in May of 2019!

[Seppia]

Great stuff!
Intuitively, your numbers are around what I would expect to happen if I pulled the plug.
Poland seems like the obvious choice VS going back to NY right now: without getting too political it seems like Europe in general is taking COVID19 a little more seriously than the US.
Numbers are dropping fast here in Italy, so I'm still hopeful we'll be able to safely meet in a few months

[2Birds1Stone]

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