Nomadic-ERE Year 5 - Wanderlust Prevails

[2Birds1Stone]

February Financial Update


The biggest win has been very low spending the past two months. Looking back at 2018 and 2019, we were squarely in the $40-45k/yr spend, so a 25-30% reduction has been pretty great.

Getting married in 2019, vs. waiting till 2020 was a good move for tax purposes. We got our refund and it was mid 4 figure amount. That made up the bulk of our income for February. Wife gets paid for 2 weeks on Thursday, and for her last week after we leave, then we will have $0 earned income/benefits, and both be living completely off of savings for the foreseeable future.

Moving was a bitch. Despite not having a 1/4 of the possessions most of our peers have, moving out took most of Saturday morning. 4 full carloads in our compact sedan, as well as countless trips to the curb to dispose of things we were discarding. The going away party afterwards was a huge success. We are blessed to have such good/close friends, and will miss them dearly over the next year. Most are also aware that we are not really looking to come back to NY when we do return to the USA.

We're staying at my MIL's house for the next week, and have a pretty busy schedule between SO working, getting together with other family/friends, and some last minute prep.

I want to thank everyone for the encouragement here, and the well wishes. It's good to see both the positive and negative opinions here. Hopefully I'm able to provide some insight as to how things look from the perspective of someone who won't have the ability to stockpile food/water, will be forced to stay in accommodations with fellow travelers, and be in an overall less resilient situation if things turn for the worst.

And if you don't hear from me after March 12th, then you can safely assume that I was eaten by European cannibals.

[CS]

Good luck! May the travel gods ever be on your side.

[McTrex]

Good luck, this European won't be eating you for sure! If you ever go to the Netherlands, let us know! Also, I'm very interested in your feelings about having the market drop like this while you just quit working. Keep us posted!

[classical_Liberal]

Looks like you come in just under the travel suspension!! Are you still going?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/investin ... index.html

[davtheram12]

I want to thank everyone for the encouragement here, and the well wishes. It's good to see both the positive and negative opinions here. Hopefully I'm able to provide some insight as to how things look from the perspective of someone who won't have the ability to stockpile food/water, will be forced to stay in accommodations with fellow travelers, and be in an overall less resilient situation if things turn for the worst.

And if you don't hear from me after March 12th, then you can safely assume that I was eaten by European cannibals.

Any news? Its March 13th here and I'm a little worried about you and the cannibals No but seriously

[2Birds1Stone]

Hey! Proof of life post here, with a much more detailed one coming soon.

We are loving Portugal. Porto is a beautiful city with diverse landscape, friendly people, and very walkable. Tomorrow is our 4th day here and we are staying till Tuesday. Today was the first day with large Covid-19 impacts. Hope we get to lisbon without any issues.

[theanimal]

Glad to hear an update. Are you concerned at all about future plans with countries closing borders and going on lockdown?

[Ego]

You can do worse than the Lagos or somewhere else along the Algarve to ride out the storm. Glad to hear you made it without 14 day quarantine.

[2Birds1Stone]

Still not freaking out, but definitely scared that our equities will continue getting pummeled as the fallout from this pandemic continues to mount to something we've never seen before. The chain reaction from entire countries shutting down will cause a ripple effect, magnitude TBD.

It's not like I would want to go back to work right now anyway, and we have non equity assets.

0 regrets about pulling the trigger on the trip. We were taxiing to the runway to leave NYC as Trump announced the travel ban for Europeans, which caused a mild panic on the plane. Since we've been in Portugal, most of Europe has been shutting down and enforcing mandatory social distancing. Doesn't look like we will be leaving this beautiful country anytime soon, so we are making the most of it!

We have secured accommodations in Lisbon for March 17-27th, after which the plan is to head further south to the Algarve. Thanks for the tip, Ego, as that's exactly what we were planning on doing. It's more remote, fairly empty this time of year, and offers plenty of outdoor activities for us as long as the weather is nice. So long as we are able to secure reasonably priced accommodation and find food/groceries, it should be a nice time!

Here in Porto we have been cooking in our AirBnB for all meals. Save for a trip or two to a bakery for some sweets, and a couple of cafes for coffee and a snack. Spending has been very reasonable. I'm tracking everything in a spreadsheet, and so far, all in with housing, transport, flights, etc we are <$1,000. Today is day 5 so under $200/day, and should drop fast as our stay lengthens. Our goal for Europe was <$100/day, so we will see how long it takes to hit that mark.

Portugal is a VERY ERE friendly country, with many people living in converted vans. The prices seem very good on food, and the weather is very mild.

[chenda]

@2bird1Stone - It's such a beautiful place though Portugal, and as you say very ERE friendly. Theres quite a surf community on the west coast of the Algarve, and the mountains around Monchique and towards Aljezur are great. Monchique is a bit gentrified but further west it becomes wilder.

[2Birds1Stone]

Also, I'm very interested in your feelings about having the market drop like this while you just quit working. Keep us posted!

Since I've finally caught up on computer time (haven't been on much at all the past week!), I was able to reconcile my spreadsheet and models with up to date account values, a bit more commentary and a quasi plan.

So I summed up my thoughts in the post above, regarding emotions of the situation. From a more practical standpoint, we are not really impacted in the short term. The wife and I have earmarked ~$30-36k of liquid funds for this year long adventure, and assuming our cost estimates were accurate, we shouldn't have to touch any other parts of our portfolio.



@chenda, does he need anyone to house sit? =D

[2Birds1Stone]

Update - alive and well, for now.

Portugal amazes me, for quite a few reasons. We have a state of emergency here, but there hasn't been a "shelter in place" mandate, because the Portuguese took this seriously from the get-go. We have been standing outside of stores because they only allow a small number of customers in at a time, people are giving each other space in public, and generally, Lisbon is a ghost town. We are checking out of our hotel tomorrow, and into our AirBnB. Going to stock up on supplies, and avoid public places where there is a risk of being close to people.

After 9 days of travel our amortized cost has been ~$100/day......and dropping by the day.

Edited to add: We've been spending our time indoors or outside in parks/national forests. The Monsanto National Park is 2,500 acres, and was deserted today!

[Seppia]

Great that you're doing well.
Eat a lot of Doradinhas and stay safe bud!

[classical_Liberal]

You're probably getting a very unique overall travel experience. Even if it is limited a bit because of COVID. I'm still envious!

[2Birds1Stone]

@Seppia, not sure what that means, but thank you!

@c_L, American refugees in Lisbon! It's not so far *knock on wood*

Mini Update

Just some random stuff.

Lisbon is pretty shut down, except there is no formal "shelter in place" mandate in regards to individual ability to leave the home, so running/cycling/hiking is fair game as long as you don't congregate outdoors.

There are a fuckton of amazing looking restaurants and cafes near our apartment, but all closed down. Would love to come back under different circumstances.

Our costs look like they should level out to ~75 Euro/day longer term here. Not bad for two people renting through AirBnB and not being too frugal with grocery choices. There just isn't much else to spend money on.

I am considering trying to buy a used bicycle. Not too much space to store one, and I wouldn't be able to take it with me once we leave by bus/plane eventually, but I miss riding, and it seems like a great way to explore the further areas of the city, or even bike to Sintra, etc.

Our AirBnB host let us on to know that she didn't have any further bookings till early April, so we made a cash offer to extend by 1.5 weeks for below the nightly AirBnB rate, on top of avoiding extra service/cleaning/tax fees. If all goes well, our housing costs should be more reasonable next monthly update.

Walking around a LOT, averaging 10 miles a day. Monsanto Forest/Park is 2,500 acres planted in the middle of Lisbon, and offers some very eco-diverse hiking trails.

Other than that, things are going ok. We are up to 2,060 confirmed COVID cases with 23 deaths as of today.....compared to my home state of NY with 21,000 confirmed cases and 160 deaths......hope we made the right choice by bailing =D

Stay safe everyone! I've been following other parts of the forums closely, just not spending much time posting or on the computer (mostly reading on mobile).

[2Birds1Stone]

Musings

Almost 3 weeks have passed since we left NY, and starting to feel acclimated to life here in Portugal. We were able to extend our current AirBnB apartment till April 9th, and are currently looking for a monthly rental in either the Cascais or Sintra areas. It doesn't make sense to head down to the Algarve with everything down there (including parks/beaches) completely closed. Right now there seems to be a decent inventory of available apartments in the $700-1000/month range.

Keenly holding our finger on the pulse wrt the COVID-19 situation globally, it still feels like we made the right move leaving the USA (especially NY) when we did. Time will tell how things play out here, but NY seems completely fucked. For now we are able to get fresh air, high quality food at reasonable prices, and still have plenty to explore by foot, while maintaining our distance from other people.

I've used this as an opportunity to get back into running, clocking just over 15 miles last week. Still looking for a used bike, but it's a bit slow as shops are closed and people are not exactly looking for face to face sales right now on the secondary market.

Cost per day has dropped to ~70 Euro/day, or roughly $80. This is significantly less than we were spending on life back in NY over the past few years.....so I guess that's the silver lining. Once/If we make it to Poland in the summer, it should drop even further.

Still too early to tell, but wife and I have discussed the possibility of staying in Europe longer term. We would need to find some part time employment while our investments rebounded to a more sustainable long term WR%.

For now making the most of a bad situation.

Curious to see if we are able to get the $2,400 from the recent COVID relief bill soon. This would completely cover ~30 days of life here at current spending levels.

[CS]

You picked the right country to shelter in. This is only until June 30th, and you aren't seeking asylum, but still, it speaks well of their decision making ability. Unlike US leadership. Sigh.

(CNN)Portugal has temporarily given all migrants and asylum seekers full citizenship rights, granting them full access to the country's healthcare as the outbreak of the novel coronavirus escalates in the country.

The move will "unequivocally guarantee the rights of all the foreign citizens" with applications pending with Portuguese immigration, meaning they are "in a situation of regular permanence in National Territory," until June 30, the Portuguese Council of Ministers said on Friday.
The Portuguese Council of Ministers explained that the decision was taken to "reduce the risks for public health" of maintaining the current scheduling of appointments at the immigration office, for both the border agents and the migrants and asylum seekers.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/europe/p ... index.html

[2Birds1Stone]

Musings
Individually @ $16,220 - TTM Spending, 32X annual expenses, and a 3.1% WR

Today marks 3 weeks since we left the USA, we are down 3 years of combined expenses.....so far. Today is already looking grim for the markets.

We are in our current apartment till April 9th, at which time we have found another (nicer, larger apartment) in a different part of Lisbon through May 7th......so it looks like we will be staying in place until then. At that time we need to reassess what our next move is. I would like to get closer to family in Poland if it's safe to do so, and logistically possible with travel restrictions etc.

Our spending was almost right on target with our projections for this trip, coming in at $2,400 for the month, the bulk of that being accommodation costs.

Individually my portfolio drop was offset by the lowest TTM spending I've had since 2015, a huge win! Right now my stock exposure is roughly 33% of net worth, and my SO's is closer to 75% (with her portfolio being significantly smaller, it skews us to ~40% combined).

Looking forward to finding a bottom sooner than later, as I would mentally like to get it over with.

We've been walking a lot, especially in the ghostly empty streets and forests in the Lisbon area. I also purchased a used bicycle for $200 and once it stops raining, hope to start building my bike mileage back up!

[slowtraveler]

Glad to hear you're doing well in the confusing environment.

3.1% wr is quite safe so I wouldn't stress in your shoes. I'm way heavier in equities now, as the crash happened, I kept shifting into equities until I saw overwhelming pessimism beyond what was merited from my experience with the situation and I went near all in quite near the recent bottom but the ambiguity must be stressful.

The housing seems relatively expensive there. I've stressed about getting nicer homes since I moved out, mostly about whether the increased kitchen and home quality mean I'll spend less going out or whether I'll be happier with more money to go out more and just going home to sleep. I've had a great kitchen lately and I gotta say I've been really happy cooking.

Can I ask what % of your expenses housing is?

[2Birds1Stone]

Housing in Portugal IS expensive using local purchasing power. For the Portuguese people, it's their largest expense by far. Compared to the USA it's even expensive, as many parts of the country have much cheaper housing (see c_L's arrangement for example). We have found the sweet spot for 1 bedroom flats with full kitchens (w/ washing machine, balcony, etc) to be in the $900-1000/month range through AirBnB, our preferred platform. I am certain a longer term rental directly from an owner can provide much cheaper long term options, but we need the flexibility of length of stay, using a CC to pay, not having to deal with setting up utilities, and need places to be furnished and have the creature comforts of home (linens, towels, etc) since we are living out of two backpacks and a small duffel bag.

I agree that a kitchen and other amenities are worth a higher price. We've cooked all but one meal since we've been in Portugal. Even if everything weren't closed, we would be cooking the vast majority of our food. Living in the flat we are in now, we realized a private outdoor space (patio, balcony, etc) was important to us, since we may be in a stricter lockdown scenario in the coming weeks. We also want a private entrance to avoid dealing with other humans at this point. All things we are willing to pay slightly more for. For comparison, or flat back home was $1,100 a month including utilities, so we are paying slightly less than that. Coupled with nowhere to really spend money while stuck here, it's not all that bad. I can see our spending in April drop a bit.

I've been speaking with parents, brother, and friends back in NY. Mainly in the NYC and Long Island area....and things are truly scary there. I would have a lot of anxiety being there right now. Our old place did have a huge yard, which would be getting a ton of use once the weather warmed up, and I suppose my local biking trails would provide some entertainment, but it looks like things are going to get much worse there before they get better, and being stuck inside a of a basement apartment would have sucked overall. My SO's job was in a grocery chain, so she would have likely had to continue working.

We're both hopeful this plays out with minimal disruption to our new lifestyle in the coming months, and we can get to Poland. Once in Poland our housing costs will be minimal (just utilities), and we can reassess how/where we want to continue traveling, as well as if/when we want to return to the US. The ideal scenario would be to get US based remote jobs and live in Poland for a while to build savings up a bit.....before re-attempting our globetrotting.

Anyway, sorry for the word dump....time to make breakfast before heading over to Sintra for the day.