blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

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blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

Hello again everyone,

Yikes! Two posts from me in a week's time. As I mentioned in my recent journal update, I'm trying to take the next step from being merely a better than average saver to a true ERE-prepared individual. In support of this effort, I'm restarting my journal to now include monthly numbers and goals. I already have time set aside at the beginning of each month to update a personal spreadsheet, but this way I have the opportunity to receive criticism and comments from you all as well as the ability to ask you questions.

I hit a personal milestone yesterday by paying off my car. It took 14 months (of the 60 month loan). This now means we only have one source of debt, our mortgage payment. With the money that had been going to the car freed up, I have updated our monthly budget by putting that money with the other savings money. Our new budget looks like this:


Blackbird's AFTER TAXES / DEDUCTIONS Monthly Budget

Expense...............Budgeted............... % of Monthly Take-Home Income

Groceries...............400............... 11.05

Mortgage...............315............... 8.70
Electric utilities........130............... 3.59
Gas utilities............150............... 4.14
Water utilities...........30............... 0.83
Internet...................67............... 1.85
Car insurance............50............... 1.38
Home insurance ........130............... 3.59
Netflix......................8............... 0.22
Phone....................150...............4.14

Gas for cars.............120...............3.31
Personal Service..........60...............1.66
Babysitter/misc .........150...............4.14

Savings..................1470...............40.61
Other car/home exp.....60...............1.66

His allowance............140...............3.87
Her allowance............140...............3.87

AFLAC......................50...............1.38


Monthly Total...........3620...............100.00

With the car out of the way, our next highest expense is $400 for the groceries to feed three of us per month. The budget is actually padded a little bit because I tend to be cautionary in that regard. For instance, both gas for cars and phone have been considerably less than budgeted. There is obviously a bunch of discretionary spending in there as well, when we first put the budget together several months ago we wrote in the allowance/babysitter costs to make the transition from a two income family to a one income family a little smoother (especially for my SO, who has done a pretty good job of adjusting to the ERE-type way of looking at things, but previously was a big shopper).


This is what our current savings looks like (numbers are for beginning of the month and do not reflect car payoff):

Tax-Advantaged Accounts

TSP L 2040 Fund $64,714.05

Teacher Retirement System $7,009.97



Taxable Accounts

"Vanguard
VTSAX
Admiral" $11,944.71

Fidelity Brokerage Account $155.87

Federal Employee Retirement System (FERS) XXXXXXXXX

Savings / Emergency Cash Fund $8,356.85



Running Total $92,181.45


This second set of numbers is what I update each month. The teacher retirement numbers represent a static amount left in my SO's account that we have yet to move elsewhere. The brokerage account represents the one share of Berkshire Hathaway Class B stock I purchased several years ago in order to receive the annual letter/prospectus. FERS is crossed out because frankly I am not counting on ever seeing it and do not take it into my planning considerations.

As for debt, we owe approximately $60K on our home mortgage. So we are in pretty good shape compared to probably 95% of our peers (we are both mid 30s) but at the same time a long long way from any kind of ERE (for me anyway).

I have restarted Jacob's book. In the first read through several years ago the entire concept was still novel, our expenses were much higher, and at best the whole idea seemed like a fantasy I was indulging.

But thanks to the website and book (and to a much lesser extent, the guys over at Bogleheads forums), we completely redid our housing situation (documented elsewhere here), my wife is now a stay-at-home mom (kinda ERE), and my savings rate for take-home monies is 40%, with an additional $18,000 for going into TSP each year now.

Current short-term goals (within the next month):

Reread Jacob's ERE book
Update my Investment Policy Statement (a Boglehead thing, but tailored more towards ERE ideas)

Long-term goals (within the next year):

Investigate how to diversify investments beyond my extremely stock heavy approach
Reduce my physical possessions by 30% (something I did for a few years in a row previously)
Post more frequently here to become more interactive with this community
Read the "Further reading" list at the end of the ERE book (I've only read nine of the 72)
Get my after-tax savings rate to 50%

As always, thanks for taking the time to read through this and all of the previous comments. They have been very helpful!

blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

Quick monthly update. These numbers actually reflect the money removed to pay off the car last month:

Tax-Advantaged Accounts

TSP L 2040 Fund $66,736.08

Teacher Retirement System $7,009.97



Taxable Accounts

"Vanguard VTSAX Admiral" $11,781.20

Fidelity Brokerage Account $151.91

Savings / Emergency Cash Fund $6,462.86



Running Total $92,142.02

Last Month $92,181.45

______________________

Change ($39.43)

Actually moved backwards $40, but that is because we paid off the remainder of our car loan and we replaced our stove (for one that had a functioning thermostat/timer/console). I had written more about this but lost the paragraph when my software crashed :(

We now have only our mortgage of less than $70,000 as debt.

I continue to reread Jacob's book. I usually read when we take our daughter to the park in the afternoon, which is good because as certain points come up my wife and I have the leisure to discuss them together. I'm hoping that this will interest her enough to read just the first two chapters herself. I finally got her to read Game of Thrones, which is pretty far outside of her normal reading interests, so there's hope yet.

Not much else to report, just trying to get into the habit of doing this every month.

Oh, we watched a crazy Canadian movie on Netflix last night called Wolfcop. If you delight in campy bad/good movies, give it a shot. It was fun.

blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

Update for the beginning of May 2015:

Third update in a row! Budget wise, in pursuit of trying to get my savings rate to 50% of take-home pay by the end of the year, I reduced my personal spending money for this coming month significantly, dropping from $35 a week to $15 a week. I know that is still a lot to allocate for personal spending but it is a progression in the right direction. This raises my after-tax savings rate to 42% (rounded down).
As for savings, here are the changes:


Tax-Advantaged Accounts

TSP L 2040 Fund $69,724.18

Teacher Retirement System $7,009.97



Taxable Accounts

"Vanguard VTSAX Admiral" $12,007.37

Fidelity Brokerage Account $150.87

Savings / Emergency Cash Fund $8,172.86



Running Total $97,065.25

Last Month $92,142.02

______________________

Change $4,923.23

We are almost to the first $100,000! That is very exciting.

I am thinking about beginning to put $1000 into Vanguard funds each month from here on out. My reasoning is that our emergency fund is solid, and that money doesn't do very much for us sitting in the bank. I will either be adding to the VTSAX fund or potentially picking up a separate Admiral share fund to diversify a little. Because we are still playing catch-up from starting so late, I'm hesitant to diversify into any kind of bond fund, instead opting for higher growth/higher risk stock-based funds. Would be interested to hear your own thoughts on this everybody?

The big news for this past month is my acceptance into the Masters of Library and Information Science program I applied for in January. This has been something I've spent a lot of time wrestling with for weeks. Feeling like my current job, while lucrative, seems like a waste of my life, I decided to sign up for a two-year program I could do after hours. But I'm worried that I am only just now starting to pick up steam on ERE, and the cost for tuition and low employment prospects make this a low value prospect. After a lot of thought, I finally told myself that if I received at least 50% tuition assistance in scholarships I would go ahead with it. Last week I received notice that I got $1000 scholarship for the first semester, which will be roughly 50% of my expenses (if you add in travel and lodging for the three-day orientation). But this did not shake my reservations about the whole undertaking, so after a lot of discussion with my wife, we decided to go ahead with the first semester and then make a judgment call on whether to continue or not. The endgame here in a perfect world would be to continue working at my current job while getting the MLIS, stay on the current job for three additional years after that, and then enter "semiretirement" by finding a library job to continue working in as long as it is entertaining/fulfilling for me. That is the basic idea anyway. Just like with the fund question in the last paragraph, I would be interested to hear opinions on this as well.

Anyway, thanks for reading!

wolf
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by wolf »

blackbird wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:51 am
Update for the beginning of May 2015:
Hi Blackbird. Just discovered your (2nd) journal. How are you? How are things going?

blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

Well I obviously moved away from updating my journal here :) but thanks for asking.

Largely, things have gone well. The efforts I implemented a few years ago have continued on, and our savings rate hovers around 63%. We are on track to break the $200,000 mark this year.

I have had some serious health issues this past year and my frequent interactions with American healthcare have actually convinced me that ERE may be unattainable for me purely because serious quality healthcare here is almost entirely dependent on comprehensive insurance through an employer.

As a result, I still follow my savings plan for ere, but treat it more like a backup plan now. My first potential exit point will be here in 3 years, and my spouse and I are now treating that as the point where she reenters the workforce and we cram savings in overdrive. The next exit point is probably possible, age 52, but there are a lot of variables at play.

This weekend we are with my inlaws bc the mil has a brain tumor (just discovered) and goes under surgery Monday to remove it. Hard to wrap my mind around the complete randomness of life, she has never been one to smoke, drink, etc and has been vegetarian / vegan for much of her life, so this was very unexpected.

I'm left thinking that if this can happen to someone in a low risk group like her, what are my odds when I have a huge cancer risk genetically from family members. So 52 is a number I'm planning towards but skeptical of reaching.

So yeah, I guess savings / expense wise we are doing well, but life wise we have our challenges like other families.

blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

*blows thick layer of dust off this thread*

After a long spell of mostly lurking, I wanted to write a brief update to my neglected journal. Another poster recently wrote in their journal,

"I would really like to get over my fear of pulling the plug on this fire hose of cash"

and I completely understand that feeling. I am at this moment still trapped by the golden handcuffs. But that is jumping ahead a bit.

2018 - The Year of Failure

Entering the year, our family was struggling with the worsening condition of my MIL. From August to December her Glioblastoma ravaged her, and in January 2018 she died with her kids sitting at her bedside holding her hand. Shortly aftewards, both wife and I were experiencing a lot of anxiety / depression. I decided to re-evaluate the list of things I wanted to do before I die, and start working on those.

For 2018, that involved climbing a 'walkable' mountain above 10,000 ft. Ended up selecting Grand Teton, which is just under 14,000 ft and considered the classic alpine climb in the US. I began a fairly disciplined and regimented routine of walking a hilly loop with progressing length, speed, and weight. Over 6 months I was knocking out 6 mile loops with a steep grade and a 30 pound pack without any issue, and fast.

Unfortunately, when I first floated this idea, my brother became involved (which is why we selected Grand Teton) and we planned to do the trip together. I, being the kind of person that is very anal about trip planning, preparation, etc, began lining up camping permits, climber lodge reservations, leave at work, while also spending a huge amount of time hiking, climbing, rappelling, etc. He, much less so.

A few weeks before our departure he pulled out of the trip. He wanted to change the itinerary to involve several days of 12-16 hours of driving and make it more of a grand circle of the American West. We argued about it over a few days with me insisting that we should make no plans beyond the climb in case we get held up, or need an extra day on the walk. Once the climb was over, I reasoned that we could then fit whatever time allowed into the rest of the trip. This didn't work for him, a lot of pent up stuff came out about how he didn't want to stay at the climbers lodge the night before, he didn't want to camp at all, etc etc

Bereft of a climbing partner, I decided to push on and go alone. Big mistake. I was so fixated on the climb that I ignored how badly shaken the debacle with my brother left me. Mentally I was in a bad place, our family history is full of deeply ingrained anger over three decades of rancor. So the entire trip out there I was depressed and going out of a sense of obligation more than enjoyment. Due to airline issues I did not arrive at the base of the mountain until 9 PM, and heartburn from thinking about family over the whole travel day was so bad that I could not lay down without severe reflux. I slept for four hours sitting upright in the rental car.

On little sleep and still stressed about the whole thing, I made a second big mistake. In my fugue I convinced myself that the stress and heartburn of the previous night would prevent me from sleeping on the mountain at our reserved spot at 9,000 ft, and that what little energy I had would be burned through in one day. So, I did the EXACT thing that I had argued against with my brother. I abandoned the plan to the climb over three days (for acclimitation and rest) and decided to push forward in one go. Began climbing in the dark, after a short bear encounter and getting above the treeline I made it into the canyon proper, navigated the scree and boulder fields under the glaciers and snowpack, until reaching the base of the approcach to lower saddle between Grand and Middle Teton.

At the end of the canyon is a near vertical wall that a narrow dusty trail zig zags to get to this talus-pile approach. Ascending this piece I ran out of gas. I could walk maybe 50 feet at a time and then would have to stop to catch my breath. I kept getting dizzy and stumbled a lot. Between fatigue and having moved from 800 ft above sea level to 10,000 ft above sea level in less than 24 hours, I wasn't able to move with any energy. I abandoned my pack (full of cold weather clothes from the morning, a camera, some food) and started up the rubble between the two Tetons, but got to roughly 10,300 ft (based on the relative position of a waterfall and camp area below me that I knew to be at 10,000 ft) and had to turn around. It took me 6 more hours to get back down (I was moving much slower) and the entire way I just had my own thoughts for company. Not pleasant.

I accepted the trip as a personal failure, and on top of the breakdown in relations with my brother (one of only two blood relatives I still communicate with on even a semi-regular basis), I fell under a cloud of self doubt.

In the following months I continued texting or emailing my brother but have at this point given up after being repeatedly met with silence.

"The most important thing is that you come back - with or without summiting. You have to be honest with yourself that in the end no one really cares - you do it for yourself." - Ueli Steck, quoted on page 33 in Training for the New Alpinism (House & Johnston, 2014)

Of my other goals, I only read 32 books for the year (had planned to get 50). Notable ones included:

2. The Fractalist by Benoit Mandelbrot (depressing, interesting, not well written) [based on a user here referencing it]
3. The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein (took detailed notes)
4. Tobacco Road by Erskine Caldwell (wow. Just an amazing, uncomfortable pseudo-family history in so many ways…)
12. Life Reimagined by Barbara Bradley Hagerty (some really interesting stuff in here related to the middle age years)
13. The Professor and the Madman by Simon Winchester
16. The Big Sky by A.B. Guthrie, Jr (really enjoyed this)
20. American Gods by Neil Gaiman
23. Norse Mythology by Neil Gaiman (really enjoyed this)
24. Anticancer Living by Lorenzo Cohen and Alison Jefferies [changed a lot about my daily routine, highly recommended]
27. Childhood's End by Arthur C Clarke (really enjoyed this)
28. 2001: A Space Odyssey by Arthur C Clarke [REREAD] (really enjoyed this)
29. The Odyssey by Homer (did not enjoy as much as The Iliad)
31. The Left Hand of Darkness by Ursula K Le Guin (seminal book in the history of science fiction, completely new to me, loved it)
32. Going Postal by Terry Pratchett (humorous, light, very enjoyable)

Based on Anticancer Living I have almost completely stopped eating meat M-F. On the weekends I will get chicken (or rarely, steak fajitas) once or twice, but overall maybe a 90% reduction in meat consumption for our family. We have largely embraced a vegetarian-like diet with an almost vegan lean to it. I've also become very disciplined about consuming nothing but water after 5 PM (again, initially based on discussions here that I read from afar).

This dovetails in a 'web-of'goals' way to another change this year. While I love (and keep) personal metrics, up to this point they have largely been dollar related (geared towards savings / earning / etc) In this coming year, I want to also start measuring CONSUMPTION metrics. I'm capturing:

- kilowatt-hours metric for comparison year-to-year
- a trash bags per week metric
- gallons of water in home use
- gallons of gas consumed for cars / lawnmower
- natural gas used for heating / water heater
- miles driven on both vehicles
- meals with meat
- meals with sweets / soda

This is geared towards lowering overall consumption more than any kind of effort for cost savings. Though early, I'm doing great on keeping meals w/ meat low, and keeping natural gas low. Doing poorly on kilowatt hours (93 this last week!) and meals with sweets / soda.

But all of the above is vanity, the piece that you folks are probably interested in is the financial / ERE piece. Well, I got there.

For post-tax expenses in 2018 (Dec 2017-Nov 2018), we managed to keep houseld bills below $13,000 as follows:

Mortgage $3,760.20
Home Gas $907.36
Internet $945.05
Electric $1,158.33
Water $375.66
Phones $981.56
Food $4,800.00

Total $12,928.16

On non-monthly bills we spent just over $3200:

AFLAC Cancer $616.20
GEICO Car+Umbrella $811.04
Property Tax $580.70
Home Insurance $1,218.77

Total $3,226.71

There are also some 100% discretionary (although I guess ALL expense are discretionary really):

Car gas $1,080.00
Family Activities $2,580.00
SO spending $1,720.00
Personal spending $1,680.00
Netflix $120.00

Total $7,180.0

All three combined: $23,334.87

I forgot to shop around for better insurance costs this year, so there's some missed savings there that I will rectify in 2019. And the discretionary piece would change considerably if we decide to RE obviously. None of those numbers are impressive to you guys but I'm reasonably happy with them compared to where we were when I first started down this road.

We have continued to do well in savings (dipped to around 45% savings rate during the glioblastoma / mtn climbing period) and we were definitely on pace to hit the age 52 exit (obviously not ERE, but RE anyway). Then something unexpected happened (two things actually).

First, in the weeks following the loss of my MIL, my wife was contacted by a lawyer and a bank. My MIL had been adopted as a child, and her adoptive father apparantly had established a trust for her and any grandchildren that might come in the future. The three children, including my wife, were the last generation for said trust. It was disbursed between them and our total net worth went from $200,000+ to $700,000+. This completely changed the calcus of FIRE for us. On the one hand, we now had reached the number I expected to be at in 11 years. Seemingly we made it! But, OTOH, this was so much earlier than planned that the question of health insurance for a family of three (instead of the two that would still be in the household in 11 years) and how to pay for those extra eleven years now presented itself. Thus the re-orientation from savings focused approach (which is fairly optimized at this point, and habitual to boot) to consumption and cash flow focused.

Now that I mathematically CAN pull the trigger on ERE, I find myself very hesitant to do so. The quote at the beginning largely sums it up. I make a lot of money at a job that, while I don't believe in it or enjoy it much of the time, ultimately requires less from me than all past jobs due to its nature. I have a much greater control of my hours and leave than most folks, and the insurance is something we use heavily due to a couple of medical conditions I will have until end of life.

So I've been lurking here A LOT more recently as I fill in or reinforce my exit plan. There is a complication that our current house is exceedingly affordable ($300 month for 1700 sq ft in one of the top three school districts in our state). My entire ERE plan was built around this house (we bought it at a bank auction and have updated critical parts) because it was $1000 per month cheaper than our last home and it reduced my commute distance from 50 miles per day to about 10 miles per day. However, due to the family trauma recently, my wife wants to move back to the state her father and brother live in but that would require a change in housing that upsets the FIRE picture significantly.

A lot to mull over in the dark days of winter....

The second surprise was that (again in a 'web-of-goals' sort of way), I parlayed my love of an old computer game into a part-time job as a subcontractor of EA. I wrote up some mock dev planning docs and sent them to a game producer which led to me being brought onto the content team for a game I love. I could write a book on the highs and lows here, seeing how the game is managed internally is a daily exercise in patience and caution. But I'm only slotted for 6 hours per week, and I just get $240 a month. Still, I took it for fun, and I can now say I worked on the videogame I have loved for 20 years. That is quiet satisfying. My goal is to last at least a year (if it can last this long, which based on my insider view of the game, I am beginning to doubt) and maybe parlay this into other game content subcontractor roles.

So that's where we are at here. Some goals for 2019 that I'm targeting:

Save $49,500
Assemble a standing desk for PC / RPi / Handwriting
Repair bicycle tires and bike during the summer
Rebalance investment portfolio after paying 2018 taxes
Read at least 50 books
Significantly reduce sugar consumption

********************************************


"My poor body, madam, requires it: I am driven on by the flesh; and he must needs go that the devil drives." - Lavatch, Act 1 Scene 3 of All's Well That Ends Well, William Shakespeare

User avatar
Bankai
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Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by Bankai »

Sorry to hear about your MIL & your brother.

I had some very similar experiences to yours. I also had an argument with my brother very many years ago, after which he decided not to speak to me again. It took me few years to get over it after many attempts on my part to reinstate relations were met with silence. It hurt a lot, but after all, you cannot change another person. If this is his decision, the best you can do is to respect it. He will have to live with this and maybe after some time, he'll realise that losing a sibling over some silly argument is not in his best interest.

Mountains demand respect. I had a close call a couple of years ago, after which I decided never again to go less than optimally prepared & to never do silly things in the mountains. I have since turned back halfway through a hike a few times, when the weather rapidly deteriorated or when I was not feeling physically up for the challenge. There's no shame in this and health & life are most important. It helps a lot to frame these instances as successes and not failures - after all, if the best, most rational decision at that moment is to turn back, you've made the best decision and can be proud of that. And what's most important, you preserve your life and health to try again next time.

But man, you're so harsh to yourself. You say "2018 - The Year of Failure", but you've actually listed some amazing successes!

32 books in a year - OK, it's less than the 50 you planned, but it's still way more than the vast majority of the general public, or even most people on this forum! I'd be delighted to have read 32 books this year, or any year since I finished Uni. I usually make grand plans to read one book each week, but I'm not a machine, and neither are you. You're still in the top 0.1%.

Also, you've made great decisions re diet - good job on cutting junk (animals)! Health is probably the most important part of life to focus on and optimise and any changes will benefit you for decades to come. Are you aiming to completely eliminate meat? It often takes a few years or more to uncondition oneself from eating junk (meat or sweets), but it's well worth it.

I understand how you are not mentally ready to pull the trigger on retirement. Why not take it slowly, and maybe spend the next 1-2 years transitioning, preparing mentally, going through various scenarios, maybe reducing hours or eventually moving to part-time before going full RE?

But most of all, man, celebrate your successes, you've done some great things this year, it's not all doom and gloom.

theanimal
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Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by theanimal »

Wow. I'm sorry to hear about what happened. But also glad to hear you decided to turn back and emerged unscathed. Like the quote says, It's no success to reach the top of a mountain, but to return intact.

Don't let this trip get you down so much. Use it as a learning experience and a launching pad to further growth. I had a similar experience five years ago. I set out to complete a big trip on my own in a remote setting. I had grand ambitions and plenty of arrogance to go with it. Yet while my desire was there, my mental fortitude and skill set was not. It was my own major failure. It had me really down for a while but I was able to figure out that I didn't know what I thought I did and start to take steps towards making such a trip a reality. Year by year I've acquired more skills, confidence and experience and have had trips that are related to the first end with great success. You didn't climb the mountain this time. That's OK, it's not moving anywhere. You'll have another opportunity if that's what you want to do.

I'd recommend reading Deep Survival. It talks about mistakes, judgement and decision making in wilderness through real world examples and how people get into rough situations. I think you'd enjoy it. Especially after this experience.

blackbird
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:36 pm

Re: blackbird's (2nd) journal, now with numbers!

Post by blackbird »

@Bankai and @theanimal

Thank you for the kind words. There were some good things from 2018, and I am harsh with myself. For me the successes are largely external whereas the "Year of Failure" is really my internal processes of facing adversity (family relationships, personal expectations, etc)

From the perspective of personal maturity and resilience, the reading and the savings and all that are not really important. I want to be on a path where I can accept myself and my family in a more positive way but it is really a struggle for me. I want to be more "Spock", less lizard brain.

Deep Survival is actually on this year's reading list, and I believe I took it from a recommendation here. Other books on my list so far include:

The Open Society and Its Enemies by Karl Popper
The Forever War by Joe Haldeman
Random Walk Down Wall Str by B. Malkiel
Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist by Paul Kingsnorth
Move Your DNA by Katy Bowman
A Mind for Numbers by Barbara Oakley
The Long Run by Daniel Keys Moran

At least a few of those came from you all!

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