how to fund retirement
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Incidentally, a British guy did this already. He sold everything except the clothes on his back and bet $135,300 on red.
In doing so he gave the casino $7121 of expected value but he lucked out and won.
(18/38) * 135300 + (20/38) * -135300 = -7121
If the guy had just placed his bet on a single zero wheel, rather than the double zero wheel he actually used, he would have only given up $3657 of expected value.
Of course, in this situation, it was better to be lucky than intelligent...
(also, if I owned the Plaza casino and heard that my employees initially didn't want to take that bet, I would have hunted down whoever that was and immediately fired him/her for GROSS ignorance of how the casino makes money)
In doing so he gave the casino $7121 of expected value but he lucked out and won.
(18/38) * 135300 + (20/38) * -135300 = -7121
If the guy had just placed his bet on a single zero wheel, rather than the double zero wheel he actually used, he would have only given up $3657 of expected value.
Of course, in this situation, it was better to be lucky than intelligent...
(also, if I owned the Plaza casino and heard that my employees initially didn't want to take that bet, I would have hunted down whoever that was and immediately fired him/her for GROSS ignorance of how the casino makes money)
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I plan to go the diversified portfolio route (although I really haven't made my mind up how that is going to look) and re-balance as often as I can without getting dinged with fees (hopefully weekly). I'm also going to supplement with a gambling side income and possibly a part time or consulting job if I'm feeling enthusiastic for something that pays like that.
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There's a point where at X retirement age and Y savings rate, you can even lose money on investment speculation but still have enough to retire. For example, if you saved 50% of your income over 20 years, you'd only need 2% nomimal (-1% real) return to building up a $800K portfolio to survive a 2.5% SWR. So if you're unsure about the investing stuff, decrease expenses + save more.
I went through these numbers in detail a week ago on my blog:
http://personalbizfinance.com/pbf/2010/ ... lysis.html
I went through these numbers in detail a week ago on my blog:
http://personalbizfinance.com/pbf/2010/ ... lysis.html