Welcome back! I never saw your journal the first time around; interesting reading. I can sympathize with your memory issues, as my DH is 80 and struggles with the same.
Do you find it hard to keep dividing your attention between multiple homes? I don't think we could do that any more. Upkeep, moving essential stuff around, winterizing, keeping vermin out, switching mail, just making a place home again after it's been empty...too much stress for the payback in our case.
Tom Young's first journal
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Glad you found your password and is back on board! Enjoyed reading your first journal and hope for much more.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Touching base after 3 years... Still alive w/my bride and living in our home in Liberty Village.
All's well healthwise, and still financially secure. Best of all, still happily enjoying what is now more than 28 years of retirement. The philosophy of two stages of retirement has not changed.
While I still post on five different forums, not as often as before. Whether my imagination or not, it seems that there are more "ego based" posts. "Look at how 'smart', 'rich', 'successful' I am...
"
It's also hard to keep up with newer topics, especially on very large forums such as ERE.
That said, this old man is developing some new interests in the world that are not yet mainstream.
So... just tossing out two that may have already been discussed here... as a matter of interest for those who may be interested in discussing the future of the world... maybe for the next 20 or thirty years.
The first is AI... trying to develop an overview.
The second is "Digital Dissidents" a fascinating two part production of AlJazeera, which is available on their website.
Would appreciate direction to any current links here on ERE, or other websites with extensive overview.
Anyway, look forward to being back, to share and learn.
All's well healthwise, and still financially secure. Best of all, still happily enjoying what is now more than 28 years of retirement. The philosophy of two stages of retirement has not changed.
While I still post on five different forums, not as often as before. Whether my imagination or not, it seems that there are more "ego based" posts. "Look at how 'smart', 'rich', 'successful' I am...
"It's also hard to keep up with newer topics, especially on very large forums such as ERE.
That said, this old man is developing some new interests in the world that are not yet mainstream.
So... just tossing out two that may have already been discussed here... as a matter of interest for those who may be interested in discussing the future of the world... maybe for the next 20 or thirty years.
The first is AI... trying to develop an overview.
The second is "Digital Dissidents" a fascinating two part production of AlJazeera, which is available on their website.
Would appreciate direction to any current links here on ERE, or other websites with extensive overview.
Anyway, look forward to being back, to share and learn.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
another "wordy" update... still here... 
Some thoughts on dementia.
First person experience. Initial onset of memory problems came on about 5 years ago. Now, @ age 82, just a fact of life that requires adjustment.
The initial reaction was one of periodic depression and a look to the family for sympathy and understanding. Of course, this appeal was rejected... "You're fine.... Look... we all have lapses of memory. You're overthinking this!"
Gradually this gave way to grudging acceptance... not because they believed, but that it was okay if it made me happy. Today, we have a much better mutual understanding, which makes my life more comfortable.
Describing the slide into dementia from a personal standpoint is not easy. On the one hand, the deeper intellect is largely intact, but the short term challenges are daunting. Most difficult are the social aspects. As a onetime leader, organizer and "people" person, continuing the social part of what I used to do, requires major changes in personal interactions. As I organize and run several scheduled events in our CCRC, I've had to learn a new way of relating to others. No longer able to put faces and names together, or even to remember names alone, has meant developing an over-friendly general approach to hide the problem, and, instead of recalling recent conversations or events, have resorted to little "tricks" to let others fill in details that I can't recall.
Brings us to today. Very much aware of ever increasing changes to the "normal" life activities. Still in the process of making adjustments to minimize the effect. Most difficult is overcoming the inevitable sadness that accompanies the problem. Slowly coming under control with grudging acceptance. My dear bride has been my support with love and understanding. Together we are working on the things we see as being critical to the time we have left. Simplifying our lives. Organizing time and effort to make the most of what we have. Looking ahead to the things that will inevitably become problematic, and seeking alternatives. In effect, decluttering the mind of the angst that naturally occurs with confusion.
Helpful "stuff". A tamping down of the curiosity and interest level. Less of the wanting to know everything, and more of enjoying the basic pleasures of life. No more reading... less interest in the local "news", balancing "outside the home" pleasures... entertainment, eating out, visiting, long drives in the country and travel... with the ease of watching a good movie.
So, yes... no worldwide travel at age 95... no Senior Swimming Masters events that I had planned on... and we missed my 60th college reunion. The email relationships with old friends has gradually disappeared. Our kids come to see us, we don't travel to see them, and this weekend we'll miss our grandson's wedding in Pittsburg.
With all of that, we're still coming to a pretty good place in life. Things like posting on websites, take longer, and sometimes get repetitive and confused. It takes a lot longer to find "words", and remembrance of things past often jump from days, to years to decades, but all in all, life is very good and it's still quite easy to find things to make us happy.
I suppose it's not "growing old gracefully", but learning to accept, and take life in stride.
Some thoughts on dementia.
First person experience. Initial onset of memory problems came on about 5 years ago. Now, @ age 82, just a fact of life that requires adjustment.
The initial reaction was one of periodic depression and a look to the family for sympathy and understanding. Of course, this appeal was rejected... "You're fine.... Look... we all have lapses of memory. You're overthinking this!"
Gradually this gave way to grudging acceptance... not because they believed, but that it was okay if it made me happy. Today, we have a much better mutual understanding, which makes my life more comfortable.
Describing the slide into dementia from a personal standpoint is not easy. On the one hand, the deeper intellect is largely intact, but the short term challenges are daunting. Most difficult are the social aspects. As a onetime leader, organizer and "people" person, continuing the social part of what I used to do, requires major changes in personal interactions. As I organize and run several scheduled events in our CCRC, I've had to learn a new way of relating to others. No longer able to put faces and names together, or even to remember names alone, has meant developing an over-friendly general approach to hide the problem, and, instead of recalling recent conversations or events, have resorted to little "tricks" to let others fill in details that I can't recall.
Brings us to today. Very much aware of ever increasing changes to the "normal" life activities. Still in the process of making adjustments to minimize the effect. Most difficult is overcoming the inevitable sadness that accompanies the problem. Slowly coming under control with grudging acceptance. My dear bride has been my support with love and understanding. Together we are working on the things we see as being critical to the time we have left. Simplifying our lives. Organizing time and effort to make the most of what we have. Looking ahead to the things that will inevitably become problematic, and seeking alternatives. In effect, decluttering the mind of the angst that naturally occurs with confusion.
Helpful "stuff". A tamping down of the curiosity and interest level. Less of the wanting to know everything, and more of enjoying the basic pleasures of life. No more reading... less interest in the local "news", balancing "outside the home" pleasures... entertainment, eating out, visiting, long drives in the country and travel... with the ease of watching a good movie.
So, yes... no worldwide travel at age 95... no Senior Swimming Masters events that I had planned on... and we missed my 60th college reunion. The email relationships with old friends has gradually disappeared. Our kids come to see us, we don't travel to see them, and this weekend we'll miss our grandson's wedding in Pittsburg.
With all of that, we're still coming to a pretty good place in life. Things like posting on websites, take longer, and sometimes get repetitive and confused. It takes a lot longer to find "words", and remembrance of things past often jump from days, to years to decades, but all in all, life is very good and it's still quite easy to find things to make us happy.
I suppose it's not "growing old gracefully", but learning to accept, and take life in stride.
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jacob
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
Since short term memory is slipping resulting in a change in daily habits and tactics, whereas deep intelligence is intact, I find myself wondering whether you've changed any long term strategies (presumable originating in deeper structures), e.g. health, investment, ... beyond tweaking them to rely less on short term memory.
If it was me, I would not be able to invest the way I do. I would have to go with something simpler that I figure I either wouldn't have to touch or something that's entirely mechanical. (Not much different from most people.) Also, in terms of running a full house(hold), I think I rely hugely on short term memory to keep all the balls in the air. The systems-theory of ERE is complex to implement and maintain. It's in many ways the opposite of simple living.
If it was me, I would not be able to invest the way I do. I would have to go with something simpler that I figure I either wouldn't have to touch or something that's entirely mechanical. (Not much different from most people.) Also, in terms of running a full house(hold), I think I rely hugely on short term memory to keep all the balls in the air. The systems-theory of ERE is complex to implement and maintain. It's in many ways the opposite of simple living.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
@Tom Young:
Hi!
I have a question. Are you sure you have dementia, and not age-related memory loss? The strategies for cooping would be different. Dementia usually comes as slipping away and affects many cognitive areas, not just memory. Acute self-awareness is unusual for dementia. Memory loss can also be a manifestation of depression, which is a third condition common in old age requiring another cooping strategy. Think about this. Sometimes, it can be helpful parsing these things away (no personal experience, professional one - speech-language pathologist working with old people).
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Yeah...I guess that self diagnosis isn't acceptable. I've talked it over with my doctor, and we both see no purpose in going through whatever tests are necessary to be"legal".
I figure I'm pretty lucky to still be able to think and reason, despite the fact that short term memories, names and faces are a blur, and I rely on my dear wife to help in social situations.
To Jacob... in line with your comments. Yeah... it's almost all mechanical now. Never an investor per se, our finances are extraordinarily simple. IBonds from the early 2000's, a tiny annuity for my bride, (of which more, later) Social Security, and a too large checking/bank account. All interest rates are frozen. One credit card, and and occasional $10 check from a very few stocks that came from out of nowhere when we retired. That's our financial structure.
Despite starting retirement with a net worth of little more than $500,000 in 1989, now, 30 years later, at age 82, we still have the same amount. (actually, a tiny bit more Not good by inflation standards but we feel comfortable. The small long term care insurance policy, and living in a CCRC helps, as we know what to expect.
In short... Total expenses $40K, Social Security $25K, Interest on bonds $12K, and a small fallback cushion plus the small LTC insurance and annuity.
As far as simplifying our lives. A continuous major project that we take seriously, and one step at a time. Every single part of living. What we have. What we do. When we do it. Where we go. Who we interact with. A place for everything and everything in its place. Timing. Schedules. Reminders. A white board. Alexa... yeah becoming better....
Lists, contacts, appointments. We're nowhere there yet, and probably never will be. A work in process.
When it becomes too much, we know we'll move out of our Villa (private home part of our CCRC) and hopefully move into the "independent" apartments. the back-up is assisted living.
We're trying to do the right things. We don't want to be a drag on our family.
Jacob... I do believe in the deeper intellect, and have found some kindred spirits in our CCRC. Surprising, and a little hard to get beyond "face value", but with understanding a lot more than meets the eye.
Back to the small annuity. Boy... I thought I understood but was I ever wrong. It was $8,000 that my wife received when her mom died in 1984. Started out with a high 12% interest rate, declining to a minimum guarantee of 4%. Current values:
Annuity Value $63,000
Accumulated value $57,000
Surrender value $53,500
The thirteen page contract was unreadable to me, so we just let the $$$ accumulate. Today, 4% is very acceptable to us.
Now, the choices are "take the full annuity" (whatever that is) until death.
Take a ten year payout on a monthly basis. (only time choice)
Wait and take the surrender value... which will entail taxes.
(I should add here, that we haven't had to pay taxes since 2003 when we liquidated our IRA's. )
For anyone who has an annuity or has an older relative with an annuity, I'd suggest learning how it works. A revelation for me... and thankful for the small amount.
I figure I'm pretty lucky to still be able to think and reason, despite the fact that short term memories, names and faces are a blur, and I rely on my dear wife to help in social situations.
To Jacob... in line with your comments. Yeah... it's almost all mechanical now. Never an investor per se, our finances are extraordinarily simple. IBonds from the early 2000's, a tiny annuity for my bride, (of which more, later) Social Security, and a too large checking/bank account. All interest rates are frozen. One credit card, and and occasional $10 check from a very few stocks that came from out of nowhere when we retired. That's our financial structure.
Despite starting retirement with a net worth of little more than $500,000 in 1989, now, 30 years later, at age 82, we still have the same amount. (actually, a tiny bit more
Not good by inflation standards but we feel comfortable. The small long term care insurance policy, and living in a CCRC helps, as we know what to expect. In short... Total expenses $40K, Social Security $25K, Interest on bonds $12K, and a small fallback cushion plus the small LTC insurance and annuity.
As far as simplifying our lives. A continuous major project that we take seriously, and one step at a time. Every single part of living. What we have. What we do. When we do it. Where we go. Who we interact with. A place for everything and everything in its place. Timing. Schedules. Reminders. A white board. Alexa... yeah becoming better....
Lists, contacts, appointments. We're nowhere there yet, and probably never will be. A work in process.
When it becomes too much, we know we'll move out of our Villa (private home part of our CCRC) and hopefully move into the "independent" apartments. the back-up is assisted living.
We're trying to do the right things. We don't want to be a drag on our family.
Jacob... I do believe in the deeper intellect, and have found some kindred spirits in our CCRC. Surprising, and a little hard to get beyond "face value", but with understanding a lot more than meets the eye.
Back to the small annuity. Boy... I thought I understood but was I ever wrong. It was $8,000 that my wife received when her mom died in 1984. Started out with a high 12% interest rate, declining to a minimum guarantee of 4%. Current values:
Annuity Value $63,000
Accumulated value $57,000
Surrender value $53,500
The thirteen page contract was unreadable to me, so we just let the $$$ accumulate. Today, 4% is very acceptable to us.
Now, the choices are "take the full annuity" (whatever that is) until death.
Take a ten year payout on a monthly basis. (only time choice)
Wait and take the surrender value... which will entail taxes.
(I should add here, that we haven't had to pay taxes since 2003 when we liquidated our IRA's. )
For anyone who has an annuity or has an older relative with an annuity, I'd suggest learning how it works. A revelation for me... and thankful for the small amount.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Now, not much later. Everything is going better than we expected. The memory decline is not too much worse and the body is doing quite well. All biomarkers look good, and jeanie and I are starting a health regimen at our CCRC's fitness center. All very modern machines, and ultra ultra sophisticated. Everything on a card that details machine settings, resistance, number of repeats, and is set for a long term plan.
Old(er) age is teaching some new approaches:
Simplify. Everything has a place, and must be returned there.
Learn energy levels, and plan activities accordingly.
Notes and calendar.
Ongoing... sleep plans.. just beginning to get more than 3 hours/night. Working at it.
Social activities... limited to slower and older friends.
Travel... not since 2012, but now down to about 2500 mi./yr.
Sounds awful, but totally happy. Life expectancy shows 9 more years to age 91.
Looks like our limited savings will hold... even if healthcare is necessary. Makes for a calm mind.
Just checking in. Our CCRC is Liberty Village Peru...That's Peru, IL... or... look up "Simply the finest".
Cheers
Old(er) age is teaching some new approaches:
Simplify. Everything has a place, and must be returned there.
Learn energy levels, and plan activities accordingly.
Notes and calendar.
Ongoing... sleep plans.. just beginning to get more than 3 hours/night. Working at it.
Social activities... limited to slower and older friends.
Travel... not since 2012, but now down to about 2500 mi./yr.
Sounds awful, but totally happy. Life expectancy shows 9 more years to age 91.
Looks like our limited savings will hold... even if healthcare is necessary. Makes for a calm mind.
Just checking in. Our CCRC is Liberty Village Peru...That's Peru, IL... or... look up "Simply the finest".
Cheers
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Now 60 years married, 30 years retired and 83 years old.
Life is wonderfully the same. Financially safe, healthy and enjoying life.
I suppose we made mistakes along the way, but if so, they have been forgotten.
Just posting so We don't get lost.
Life is wonderfully the same. Financially safe, healthy and enjoying life.
I suppose we made mistakes along the way, but if so, they have been forgotten.
Just posting so We don't get lost.
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prognastat
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
Glad to hear things are still getting along well.
Just noticed the 3 hours of sleep per night comment from your previous post, this definitely could be having a negative effect on cognitive function. Has this been improving?
Just noticed the 3 hours of sleep per night comment from your previous post, this definitely could be having a negative effect on cognitive function. Has this been improving?
Last edited by prognastat on Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Yeah, glad to hear your are well.
Congrats to your marriage, your retirement and your age!
Congrats to your marriage, your retirement and your age!
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Thanks for asking...prognastat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:30 pmGlad to hear things are still getting along well.
Just noticed the 3 hours of sleep per night comment from your previous post, this definitely could be having a negative effect on cognitive function. Has this been improving?
a chance to get it off my chest. .........................................................................................................................................
I wish... no... still about 3 hours and not in sequence.. have tried everything... not just for a day, but following every on-line medical website recommendation, to the letter, for at least a week... sometimes more. NADA.
Meditation, adjusting go to bed times, daylight exposure, OTC sleep aids... melatonin, sleep sounds, warm blankets, getting up when restless, and a dozen or more off the wall recommendations. It's been like this for years now. I can get some sleep, with prescription drugs but the doctor won't prescribe. I occasionally use my wife's clonazepam, but even that is not a certainty. I've been to sleep clinics in the past, years ago, and know what the procedure is... It didn't work... they couldn't get me to sleep.
Posting this just as a reminder to myself as to what I've already tried.
Have a yearly checkup with our doctor, whom I respect... in two weeks... but if he won't prescribe Ambien or some other more powerful drug, I'll change doctors.
One other thing. I've been to some websites that suggest that if an older person, is not physically active, the "resting" hours could offset sleep time... I wonder?
I stopped going to sleep threads and forums, as everything I've ever read, I have tried.
Jeanie and I have been going to physical exercise twice a week, and though it doesn't help the sleep part, I've noticed less "twitching" and restless leg movement.
End of rant...
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prognastat
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
Sorry to hear that you haven't been successful in finding a way to improve it. Hopefully things go well with the doctor.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Haven't gone back to read my older posts, so I expect I'll get caught in some lies. 
Sooo.... Life isn't so bad after all. Jeanie (my bride of 60+ years) and I are doing very well, and am over the self pity
We're both quite healthy, and after our semi annual visit to the gerontologist yesterday... both in good shape. Everything that's measurable was fine... nothing even nearly out of range.
More important, we both feel good. In our 83rd year, we probably feel better than we did when we were 55. No Arthritis aches or pains, and not even overweight.
Have learned to live with less sleep, and surprisingly, we both are quite happy almost all the time.
After a winter of being snowed in, will have to get back into driving again. Farthest we've been is to the clubhouse, and Aldis and Walmart... about 1 mile away. Still doing the exercise thing, and now that we're getting out a little bit more, will start my
Trivia games and Memories meetings a again.
Of course, spend a lot of time on the TV, mostly news, and too much time blogging.
You didn't ask, but the money is holding up real well. Finally dipping in to jeanie's small annuity, which will give us an extra $1795 mo, for the next five years, and... wonder of wonders... looked for "Found Money", and found that /Rhode Island was holding $2918.34 in monies from two old Met Life insurance policies my mom had taken out for me back in 1936.
Frugal as we are, despite not investing except for I Bonds, back in the early 2000's, we still have just as much as we had back when we retired @age 53.
So... 22 years of school and growing up... 30 years of work, 30 years of being retired, and 60 years of marriage, Life couldn't be better.
Yeah... we may have missed some international travel, and years of theatre going, but moving 22 times and having great memories of living on Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Florida, Maine, Georgia and 4 more state, gave us enough to keep us up at night challenging each others memories.
Cars are now a combined 43 years old, but only get used about 5,000 miles/yr. anymore.
After coming within minutes of death... each of us... now every day is a free vacation day. A full two minute hug in the AM starts off each day.., and every day is appreciated.
Sooo.... Life isn't so bad after all. Jeanie (my bride of 60+ years) and I are doing very well, and am over the self pity
We're both quite healthy, and after our semi annual visit to the gerontologist yesterday... both in good shape. Everything that's measurable was fine... nothing even nearly out of range.
More important, we both feel good. In our 83rd year, we probably feel better than we did when we were 55. No Arthritis aches or pains, and not even overweight.
Have learned to live with less sleep, and surprisingly, we both are quite happy almost all the time.
After a winter of being snowed in, will have to get back into driving again. Farthest we've been is to the clubhouse, and Aldis and Walmart... about 1 mile away. Still doing the exercise thing, and now that we're getting out a little bit more, will start my
Trivia games and Memories meetings a again.
Of course, spend a lot of time on the TV, mostly news, and too much time blogging.
You didn't ask, but the money is holding up real well. Finally dipping in to jeanie's small annuity, which will give us an extra $1795 mo, for the next five years, and... wonder of wonders... looked for "Found Money", and found that /Rhode Island was holding $2918.34 in monies from two old Met Life insurance policies my mom had taken out for me back in 1936.
Frugal as we are, despite not investing except for I Bonds, back in the early 2000's, we still have just as much as we had back when we retired @age 53.
So... 22 years of school and growing up... 30 years of work, 30 years of being retired, and 60 years of marriage, Life couldn't be better.
Yeah... we may have missed some international travel, and years of theatre going, but moving 22 times and having great memories of living on Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Florida, Maine, Georgia and 4 more state, gave us enough to keep us up at night challenging each others memories.
Cars are now a combined 43 years old, but only get used about 5,000 miles/yr. anymore.
After coming within minutes of death... each of us... now every day is a free vacation day. A full two minute hug in the AM starts off each day.., and every day is appreciated.
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jennypenny
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
That's so lovely. I'm going to start that tradition immediately.
My husband and I are celebrating our 30th anniversary this year (we're both 52). I hope we're as happy as you are when we get to our 60th.
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Shared an extra-long embrace with DW this morning, seems like a good habit. Also, reading your journal was one thing that helped me get over my fear or dread of aging. It is remarkable that you are able to maintain an appreciation for the memories you have and excitement at the days still to come. Above all your writing exudes a sense of inner calm and peace that I hope to achieve one day.
If I may ask what do you blog about?
If I may ask what do you blog about?
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Frugalchicos
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
Tom Young, you are my freakin hero!!
I just read your whole journal and I feel like driving all the way to Peru and listen to all your stories. I really admire how you guys lived your life. You can rest assure you can sleep more than 3 hours if you think about how successful and connected with society, your partner and the world you lived your life.
I wish you a wonderful life ahead. I don't think you needed international travels to tell stories, you already lived the best story you can tell to anyone.
All the best
I just read your whole journal and I feel like driving all the way to Peru and listen to all your stories. I really admire how you guys lived your life. You can rest assure you can sleep more than 3 hours if you think about how successful and connected with society, your partner and the world you lived your life.
I wish you a wonderful life ahead. I don't think you needed international travels to tell stories, you already lived the best story you can tell to anyone.
All the best
Re: Tom Young's first journal
Hi guys...
Going through a new change. Away from most of the "money" oriented discussions where I've been writing for the past 8 years... and headed to the more philosophical, theoretical thoughtful less ego centered subjects. Looking ahead... taking in the negative and searching out the possible.
In short... not the money part, important as it is. At the risk of boring you, I'm posting a piece by Charles Hugh Smith (Of Two Minds), that goes into what could to have a serious effect on our lives and fortunes, but more importantly, to the lives of our kids and their kids.
(hint) Reading just the article without going to the cited deeper analysis links, might leave a different impression... some of the graphs and statistics were (to me) eye openers.
Just imagine... it's superficially about "food".
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay19/su ... d5-19.html
I would be interested in your "take" on this subject. "Cry Wolf" or maybe something to keep track of? The short time element is the most worrisome part for me.
Going through a new change. Away from most of the "money" oriented discussions where I've been writing for the past 8 years... and headed to the more philosophical, theoretical thoughtful less ego centered subjects. Looking ahead... taking in the negative and searching out the possible.
In short... not the money part, important as it is. At the risk of boring you, I'm posting a piece by Charles Hugh Smith (Of Two Minds), that goes into what could to have a serious effect on our lives and fortunes, but more importantly, to the lives of our kids and their kids.
(hint) Reading just the article without going to the cited deeper analysis links, might leave a different impression... some of the graphs and statistics were (to me) eye openers.
Just imagine... it's superficially about "food".
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay19/su ... d5-19.html
I would be interested in your "take" on this subject. "Cry Wolf" or maybe something to keep track of? The short time element is the most worrisome part for me.
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jennypenny
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
I definitely agree with CHS. I'm not sure we'll see a complete collapse of the food system, but I anticipate there will be years where some foods are absent from the shelves because of production issues. And some of those may never come back depending on the issue.
I also think that the efforts to increase production yield food that is prolific, attractive, and yet not very tasty* or nutritious. People may end up with plenty of food and yet still suffer from malnutrition.
*My ugly, homegrown strawberries are so much better tasting than those instagram-ready ones in the grocery store.
I also think that the efforts to increase production yield food that is prolific, attractive, and yet not very tasty* or nutritious. People may end up with plenty of food and yet still suffer from malnutrition.
*My ugly, homegrown strawberries are so much better tasting than those instagram-ready ones in the grocery store.
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jacob
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Re: Tom Young's first journal
My favorite mindblowing statistic is the fact that when it comes to total land-based vertebrate biomass (2018 numbers), humans now comprise 36% of the sum total, while domesticated livestock (cows, pigs, chicken,...) is 59%, leaving the remaining wildlife (elephants, rats, beavers, pigeons, etc.) at just 5%. Note that humans are still outweighed by vira. Also note that epidemics are much more likely to run amok in populations that are weakened by starvation (or weakened by young/old age) and that epidemics are nature's favorite way of curbing monocrops to restore ecological balance.
We (humans) along with chicken, cows, and pigs are now the big monocrops, so it's easy to see where this is going(*) and how the battle is already drawn up. There's definitely some "cry wolf" involved but that's par for the game---mostly driven by insufficient education of these [complex world] issues in all but a few people (1%?). What most people seem to forget from that story is that the wolf ate the sheep at the end of the story.
(*) One example of an ongoing situation in is African swine fever in China. IIRC, they're set to destroy 150 million pigs to try to get it under control.
Recall that antibiotics have only been in general use since the 1940s (when the human population---and presumably correspondingly the livestock population----was 3x smaller than it is today at almost 8 billion). This has allowed us to move the "balance of power" far in our favor. Certainly it is not against the laws of physics that it could/would snap back as fast or faster than it moved in our favor. It's somewhat tragic that humans are using antibiotics to boost yields (both animals and pesticides/fungicides for plants) rather than keeping them in reserve for last-stands. However, this is not much different than how we're burn oil for transportation and heating instead of reserving it for the far more valuable role as chemical feedstock.
Basically, the average/majority of humans are ridiculously short-sighted but will happily cook up self-serving stories/worldviews. The current use of antibiotics will be defended based on economic theory while people worrying about it will be called alarmists and those who make personal efforts will be made fun off for not eating bacon, etc.
Like @jp said, we (at least the richer ones of the world's humans) are somewhat resilient towards these shocks because we're well-fed (unlike say East Africa where (re)starting Ebola seems to have become a recurrent affair, also ongoing.) and more importantly, because we can afford to slaughter animals and eat their fodder instead insofar we can't maintain their upkeep. <== This is the reason to be optimistic at least wrt first-world prospects as the brunt of the shortages will borne by domestic animals and poor people elsewhere.
As an example, consider what actually happened to cattle in the US in 2012 (remember the heat waves?). I bet few people noticed, but many were slaughtered because of water shortages. (The current 2019 flooding issues in the US midwest are mainly on land used for growing corn and soy ... which we usually can afford to use as livestock feed. So it's not first-world human crirical ) Ironically, this decreased meat prices. This works for us because we can afford to waste the resources to turn corn and soy into meat at a 1 to ~2 (chicken) and 4+ for pigs and cattle depending on the feed conversion ratio (ironically boosted with antibiotics). Someone who can not afford to do that (say a farmer in Syria and Egypt) will give up farming, move to the city or become a refugee, get unemployed, get angry, and start a revolution/war/criminal activities.
PS: If you like fiction, I recommend "The Sheep Look Up" by John Brunner. It has aged remarkably well.
We (humans) along with chicken, cows, and pigs are now the big monocrops, so it's easy to see where this is going(*) and how the battle is already drawn up. There's definitely some "cry wolf" involved but that's par for the game---mostly driven by insufficient education of these [complex world] issues in all but a few people (1%?). What most people seem to forget from that story is that the wolf ate the sheep at the end of the story.
(*) One example of an ongoing situation in is African swine fever in China. IIRC, they're set to destroy 150 million pigs to try to get it under control.
Recall that antibiotics have only been in general use since the 1940s (when the human population---and presumably correspondingly the livestock population----was 3x smaller than it is today at almost 8 billion). This has allowed us to move the "balance of power" far in our favor. Certainly it is not against the laws of physics that it could/would snap back as fast or faster than it moved in our favor. It's somewhat tragic that humans are using antibiotics to boost yields (both animals and pesticides/fungicides for plants) rather than keeping them in reserve for last-stands. However, this is not much different than how we're burn oil for transportation and heating instead of reserving it for the far more valuable role as chemical feedstock.
Basically, the average/majority of humans are ridiculously short-sighted but will happily cook up self-serving stories/worldviews. The current use of antibiotics will be defended based on economic theory while people worrying about it will be called alarmists and those who make personal efforts will be made fun off for not eating bacon, etc.
Like @jp said, we (at least the richer ones of the world's humans) are somewhat resilient towards these shocks because we're well-fed (unlike say East Africa where (re)starting Ebola seems to have become a recurrent affair, also ongoing.) and more importantly, because we can afford to slaughter animals and eat their fodder instead insofar we can't maintain their upkeep. <== This is the reason to be optimistic at least wrt first-world prospects as the brunt of the shortages will borne by domestic animals and poor people elsewhere.
As an example, consider what actually happened to cattle in the US in 2012 (remember the heat waves?). I bet few people noticed, but many were slaughtered because of water shortages. (The current 2019 flooding issues in the US midwest are mainly on land used for growing corn and soy ... which we usually can afford to use as livestock feed. So it's not first-world human crirical ) Ironically, this decreased meat prices. This works for us because we can afford to waste the resources to turn corn and soy into meat at a 1 to ~2 (chicken) and 4+ for pigs and cattle depending on the feed conversion ratio (ironically boosted with antibiotics). Someone who can not afford to do that (say a farmer in Syria and Egypt) will give up farming, move to the city or become a refugee, get unemployed, get angry, and start a revolution/war/criminal activities.
PS: If you like fiction, I recommend "The Sheep Look Up" by John Brunner. It has aged remarkably well.