A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Where are you and where are you going?
SustainableHappiness
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by SustainableHappiness »

PS. If you don't want encouragement, please disregard! :)

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

SustainableHappiness wrote:
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:51 am
PS. If you don't want encouragement, please disregard! :)
Thanks, SustainableHappiness,

Encouragement certainly is not a bad thing, and I don't mind hearing it or anything people want to say (if I did mind I wouldn't have this journal going). I've seen from your journal that not only are we at different stages of life, but we are taking different approaches. I just don't have the right kind of personality to deal with the responsibilities of a landlord, but for those who do, it can be a great strategy.

I know that the numbers say I could probably go now, but age 55 brings me a step up in retirement bene's that equates to more than a year's salary. That makes it like my employer is saying, "Work two more years and we'll pay you for three." That' hard to turn down even though it probably is not necessary. But it does mitigate one concern: all my planning is based on data collected while I had good health and participated in my employers medical insurance plan. I made estimates of how medical expenses might change going forward with ACA, but if Republicans succeed with their intended overhaul things could change substantially, and not in my favor. I fit the demographic that will be most adversely affected by the Rep. bills: age 55-64 w/o employer sponsored insurance. Waiting a couple years gives me a chance to see how that plays out.

One last note: my multiples are high compared to anticipated average withdrawals, but not so high compared to average expenses. The former likely reflects how things will go, but if my "outside income sources" (SS and a small annuity/pension) disappear, it puts me on a path to eventual depletion. So I don't mind driving my withdrawal-based multiples to what looks like insanely high numbers. As it stands my "standalone" multiples will just about hit 25X when I hit 55 if we don't hit any turmoil in the next 23 months. That it works out that way is completely a coincidence. Even though 25X with no other income is not a great number, I think I can make it work because I have room to reduce spending (medical being the wildcard) and can take on some casual part-time employment, and even sell the cabin. I see the loss of all outside income as a very unlikely event in my horizon, but it is good to know that it wouldn't be a complete disaster for me.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

Morphing of the Plan

For years now my plan has been to initially to use Illinois as home base for at least the initial segment of ER, with the lil' cabin in Minnesota being a retreat. But the state of Illinois seems to be increasingly dysfunctional, almost a microcosm of the left vs. right stalemate the rest of the country is heading towards. A mostly rural state offset by one large urban area (and a sprinkling of small/medium-sized cities). I haven't looked at the details of the new tax proposals (specifically their effect on 1099R income) and suspect they are only the tip of the iceberg. Luckily I have the option of living in south-central Wisconsin and still being within 20-25 miles of my parents. So I've now officially elevated that to option 1b. Wisconsin is less tax friendly to retirees (right now) than Illinois, but I'm not sure that will persist.

SustainableHappiness
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by SustainableHappiness »

Amen on the not wanting to deal with being a landlord (slight slumlord in my case). After 2.5 years of it, DW and I have made the same decision and are exiting real estate entirely and moving to a rent only lifestyle.

As long as you are rockin' on, keep on rockin'.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

Some Figgerin'

As I approach the autumn of my life it's time to start thinking about the harvest. I've spent the last 30 years shoveling assets into a pile and tending it. I've kicked the can down the road in terms of coming up with a way of deploying assets so that they support me rather than me supporting them.

I am intuitively attracted to the strategy known as a Liability Matching Portfolio (LMP). It's beauty is in its simplicity. It's just a matter of determining how much you think you'll need to consume from your portfolio and investing/parking that amount in stable value assets (typically cash and intermediate-term or shorter maturity gov't bonds). The remainder can be invested in about any way that's desired. One thing I will say is that is I had just barely enough to see me through on paper I wouldn't be so keen on this plan. That's because I approach this with awareness of other studied strategies and over-reliance on bonds and cash raise shortfall odds in a lot of scenarios that are reasonable to anticipate. From my accumulation planning I've got a pretty good estimate, somewhat conservative, of what I'll be withdrawing from my assets. It happens that right now I've got 101% of that amount in bonds/cash assuming I stick to my nominal check out date in 2019. Looking at just financial assets I'm sitting at about 68% equities and 32% bonds/cash, meaning there is a good bit of margin. If I were to move my checkout date up to today, I'd have to double my bond/cash holding which would put me at roughly 36% equities and 64% bonds/cash. That's a little more conservative than I like, but still doable in a pinch.

Since I don't have anything driving me out early most of my focus will be on my nominal plan. In 22 months it is possible/likely I'll have even more financial assets than today, so the bonds/cash required for LMP will be an even smaller fraction of my invested assets, maybe 25% if market conditions are muted/benign.

The question then becomes one of what to do with the 75% that's not restricted by LMP. My personal philosophy and ethics lead me to look at handling that money with two potential purposes in mind.

First, from a perspective on the happy path, it is primarily wealth I will be stewarding for my descendants. That's mostly due to emotion and tradition; but if you want a rationale, just take a look at the trend with the US national debt that's been and is being accumulated under "our watch". In a sense, what gets passed on to my kids and grandkids might cover my share of the payback.

Second, the surplus will act as a stout backup for me should things not work out according to my plan. I think of it as an emergency fund containing three remaining lifetimes' expenses.

There's also a likelihood that a small amount could wind up being spent on money-consuming entertainment and leisure activities.

I still don't know exactly how I'll invest the money. The legacy aspect is a tug towards investing with long-term growth in mind, and the giant emergency fund aspect tugs slightly the other way. I suspect I'll end up with a very simple, very middle-of-the-road approach. Even though I like to think things through, I don't like elaborate, high maintenance financial "solutions" (those solutions often wind up being the problem). If I had to pick a strategy today I take the extra 75% and split it 65/35 stocks/bonds, which would put me in the 50/50 range if you raked everything together. Going beyond investments to principal assets, that would put me at about 40/40/20 stocks/bonds/realestate.

The funny (perhaps sad) thing about this is that I sometimes ponder what I would or could do if I eased up on the spending restrictions inherent to my plan in an effort to "enjoy life" a little more. I am unable to come up with a whole lot of ideas for enjoyment I could buy myself. Perhaps my imagination is lacking.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

July 2017 Update

I continue to fall behind schedule in my home sale preparation activities. The good news is that home prices are starting to rise slightly in my corner of this little corner of Flyover Country. Still, I expect to get less than I paid for it on an inflation-adjusted basis ~20 years later. That's one of the reasons that the home-as-an-investment thing doesn't resonate well with me. Asset, yes, investment, not so much.

I'm starting to have to think through some of the specifics of my transition. I'm planning to finish work on 31 May (2019) so I'm thinking I'll spend the rest of that season primarily at the cabin, so it will be fall of that year before I start thinking about finding a house. My aunt has offered to let me stay with her while I'm house hunting in exchange for me doing all the leaf raking, snow removal, and the like (and expense sharing), so I won't have a ticking clock hanging over my head. The other option, if Mom doesn't make it that long, would be to move in with Dad for a time. that could be more of an intermediate-term arrangement depending on how he adjusts to life on his own. He will be 80 at that point and I suspect no matter where I'm hanging my hat, an amount of my time/attention will be spent looking after him. For the first time I'm also thinking about the option of renting a small apartment versus buying a house. There are downsides to it, but the upside is that my maintenance liability would decrease. The other issue I'm wrestling this is what to do with a house while I'm up in the cabin 4ish months a year. Somehow I'll have to keep the lawn and stuff up, and the place being burgled is a nontrivial concern. With an apartment those issues are lessened.

During August I'm going to shift some of my invested assets around to assume a more conservative posture, something I've been mulling over for a while. I'd call it a rebalance, but that word seems to have a distorted connotation here.

I did something stupid over the weekend. My 17-year-old lawnmower went belly-up on me Saturday and I bought a new one. Then after considering it and talking to a knowledgeable friend I now think I can repair it. So I might have spent $400 (I like good mowers) that I didn't have to. The only positive spin I can put on it is that ultimately I'm going to want two mowers (one at house, one at cabin) and my plan was to hope the old one made it though two more seasons before retiring to light duty at the cabin. If I can get it fixed I'll have two, but will have 1700+ mower-moving-miles instead of 1147.

Every day a new sign appears that seems to point towards the exit.

Tentative good news on the medical insurance front. I don't know if I'd misunderstood/misread some things in the past, if things have changed, or if I misread/misunderstood something last week. But it looks like if I stick it out until I turn 55 I will have the option to continue buying into my employer's health insurance plan (though without the company covering a big chunk of the cost). If I can confirm that it will be a big load off my mind. It's not cheap (around $540/mo this year) but at least I know I have the option and I'm not as exposed to the political winds as I would otherwise be. I had thought before that I'd have to work until age 60 to have that option.


Dull Numbers:

Invested asset growth was $22,900 for the month of July. Savings contributions were slightly below planned and most of the growth was due to investment performance. Spending in June was $4,204, which is the worst it been in a few years on the surface, but $1,700 of that was payment to contractors for early sale prep work on the house and the $400 for the aforementioned mower. Those items aside I was at $2,100 or so for basic living costs.

Had 31 July 2017 been the day I left work for good ...

My invested assets plus anticipated proceeds from downsizing houses were 35.8x anticipated average portfolio withdrawals through age 70. Through age 80 I'm at 51.5x.

If the future mimicked my nominal plan/forecast I'd expect growth of 9.7% in financial assets by my 70th birthday.

halfmoon
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by halfmoon »

IlliniDave wrote:
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:07 am
I did something stupid over the weekend. My 17-year-old lawnmower went belly-up on me Saturday and I bought a new one. Then after considering it and talking to a knowledgeable friend I now think I can repair it. So I might have spent $400 (I like good mowers) that I didn't have to.
This made me laugh, because we just bought a new riding mower for $2,000 to replace our 15-year-old one! Stupidity comes in degrees. :lol: I never begrudge money spent on good, labor-saving equipment, though. You could always donate the old mower, but it's also nice to have the backup one for when the new one inevitably needs a repair that you can't do yourself and the shop is backed up 3 weeks (always happens when the grass is growing several inches a day). Not very minimalist, I know. :oops:
IlliniDave wrote:
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:07 am
If I can get it fixed I'll have two, but will have 1700+ mower-moving-miles instead of 1147.
What does this mean? Just curious.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

halfmoon wrote:
Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:28 am
IlliniDave wrote:
Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:07 am
If I can get it fixed I'll have two, but will have 1700+ mower-moving-miles instead of 1147.
What does this mean? Just curious.
Oh, well, it's really just goofiness. I currently live in Alabama. When I stop working I plan on moving to Illinois for my official residence. I also have a cabin in NE Minnesota. It's 1,147 miles from my place in Alabama to the cabin. The old plan was to move the old mower up to the cabin hence the 1,147 mower-moving-miles, then buy a second one once I'm settled in Illinois (0 mower-moving-miles). Now if I get the old one fixed I have two mowers to move to Illinois (~650 mower-moving-miles each) plus one that I'll have to haul the additional 400 mower-moving-miles to the cabin in Minnesota.

I definitely would agree with you that money spent on decent quality work-reducing machines/equipment is worth it. It's not very ERE, but as time marches on, time commands more of a premium in my hierarchy.

So, even though I've been shedding possessions in anticipation of the move, this isn't the most horrible result. Like you said, having a spare this time of year isn't bad, and there's a good chance that even though it's an expense now, it will wind up being a cost avoidance later.

7Wannabe5
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Don't feel too bad. I have now failed at my vow to only use a manual rotary mower and/or scythe-like tool at two separate properties. At my current site, my resolve was further weakened by offer of gift of free, brand-new (yet 15 years old) lawnmower my very wealthy friend once won in a raffle and was endlessly storing with no need for use.

My ideal would be to only be responsible for the mowing of one very small, very well-maintained rectangle of lawn, just large enough for badminton, croquet or somersaults simultaneous with tea table, and/or participation in annual activity more akin to festive haying of larger field. One book in my collection, which I do not have at hand, contains a lovely description and engraving detailing the joy to be found in such labor if only done once a year in cool weather with loose sleeves rolled up and sturdy well-sharpened tool in hand. However, until that idyllic day is achieved, I am stuck with conflict between noxious week ordinance, tendency towards heat-induced rosacea, and lumpy.bumpy lawn surface.

I think you are on the right track with veering away from purchase of second residence. In addition to likelihood that mutual benefit may be found by sharing accommodations with older family members, there are also the possibilities/puzzles of sharing accommodations with bed-partner or desire for travel to other locales once free of work obligations to consider. For instance, you might find that staying with your father and using funds you would otherwise direct towards purchase or rental of second quarters for weekend getaways while dating would be preferable, and would also leave you more free to eventually contribute to cost/purchase of housing more conveniently located for future partner depending on her employment or social commitments.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

When I stop working I plan on moving to Illinois for my official residence. I also have a cabin in NE Minnesota.
Why not split the difference and get one place in Wisconsin? I don't follow it closely but it looks like cheesehead politics might be more to your liking than Illinois or Minnesota (an added bonus).

George the original one
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by George the original one »

> But it looks like if I stick it out until I turn 55 I will have the option to continue buying into my employer's health insurance plan
> (though without the company covering a big chunk of the cost).

Double check that the coverage is available at your proposed residence. I could have done similar after exiting employment, but the coverage didn't extend to my current residence.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:05 am

... and would also leave you more free to eventually contribute to cost/purchase of housing more conveniently located for future partner depending on her employment or social commitments.
:shock:

:lol:

George_TOO, I mentioned above that south central Wisconsin is an option, but in terms of miles, I want home base to be much closer to my parents in Illinois. An oversimplification of my plan is that I'll spend 5 mos of the year at my place in Minnesota, and the balance near my parents. Having just one place midway between them leaves me without either.

The politics of a state don't weigh much other than how it affects the depth of the state's reach into my pocket. From best to worst, at this moment the order is 1) Illinois, 2) Wisconsin, 3) Minnesota. In terms of politics, Minnesota is as blue as they come (but it's a different shade of blue than the coastal state blue). Illinois is mostly blue although some state offices and much of the geographical territory is red. Wisconsin is historically bluish although they seem to be leaning red at the moment (I suspect it is a temporary condition).

Good call on the health insurance. I'm pretty sure the company has a smattering of employees in the state, so it shouldn't be a dealbreaker. But it is definitely worth checking out.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

All Signs Pointing to the Exit.

With each day I feel increasingly like there's less me pushing the plan forward and more of the plan dragging me behind it. That's probably a good thing because my stamina and resolve are definitely in an ebb.

I'm starting to prepare for a 4-wk vacation, the longest break for me since the summer between my sophomore and junior years of high school. It is an unusual feeling, and one that feels connected to the larger convergence of events.

This morning I am grateful for the human capital I was given at birth. I am grateful that I inherited a non-financial legacy that started with my dirt-poor immigrant great grandparents. I am grateful I never really perceived an option other than owning my own shortcomings, mistakes, and failures. I am grateful that obstacles became opportunities to distill strength, even when it came in the form of scars and callouses.

It feels strange having in some respects made it to where what lies in front of me in all directions is the downhill side. From this foreign vantage I increasingly see things that make me feel, well, sad. I hope it is just a distortion pending my ability to adjust to a new perspective. I suppose I'll know in time. Having run out of words, the good kind, anyway, I suppose it is best to observe and accept in silence.

suomalainen
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by suomalainen »

I don't know what specific sadnesses you may be referencing, but from the vantage point of a guy who's read 3+ years of your journey in a very short period, I would assume it's a bit of what we would say as "haikea olo" in Finnish or a sense of the bittersweet. All choices require sacrifices and so many of your choices have pointed in the same direction, yet you, for some reason, seem to kick against the pricks. I can't for the life of me reconcile a continual series of posts reflecting on choices made towards the cabin, towards family, towards having more money than you need, and expecting the next post to be "I did it!" And then not seeing it, but rather seeing a post that you have two years left. I guess I'm not criticizing - I just sense a discrepancy and I don't get it.

Anyway, the tl;dr version is whether this is a head vs heart situation, and the question is whether that cognitive dissonance generates those emotions. Full disclosure: I'm feeling a bit overwhelmed by my parents' anxieties and experiencing some of my very own, so I may be primes to read too much into the stream of your posts.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

Hi suomalainen,

Yeah, bittersweet or maybe melancholy. Through this whole multi-year process I've felt more pulled away than I have pushed away. In other words, the base motivation is moving toward something rather than away from something. I don't share the negative experiences many have when it comes to work, where I live (summer weather aside), etc. I'll be leaving long-term colleagues and friends behind. A substantial chapter of my life is coming to a close. It's well within my nature to grow somewhat pensive at such times. Rather than this being a purely intellectual exercise it's starting to get real; and reality tends to be a little messier than fantasies. Call me sentimental, I guess. :)

As far as the 654 remaining days, it's just a business decision. Working until I reach age 55 will earn me a nontrivial increase in retirement benefits. I can reasonably call myself FI now, but the bump in benefits provide a lot of margin through the out years. So the main head vs heart contest is the decision of picking the financially optimal time versus the most desired time to move on. The compromise is to carry on until 55 when I cross the threshold for the full suite of benefits, then leave immediately after. There well may be cognitive dissonance in the mix when it comes to my planning. I don't pretend to be a creature driven solely, or even mostly, by logic/reason.

suomalainen
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by suomalainen »

No, I get it. I guess in some ways it's the "more mature" way to go about it in the sense that you are making the transition in baby steps rather than impulsively jumping away from shitty X to the panacea Y. That statement reveals way more about me than about you! In any event, I wish you joy/mindfulness/whatever it is you want out of these next 654 days. And beyond, of course. I look forward to voyeuring along on your journey!

Shep
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by Shep »

Hi Dave, really enjoy your posts and progress. I am of a similar age and situation as you but new around here so have no posts yet. I have recently experienced a similar feeling of sadness. Mostly a realization that a significant chapter of my life is closing and now need to look ahead to all of the possibilities. Although, reaching 50, a bit of a terror sets in in realizing that there is so little time left. All the more reason to focus on FIRE. I was wondering if you have watched Boss of The Swamp on youtube. He is a pretty cool, authentic dude, living a frugal, self reliant lifestyle for many years that he passes along to his followers, very simply and clearly. He has a Cabin life series that you might appreciate and a cool dog Frankie. I have attached a link below though he has a channel spanning through the years with a variety of focus areas that are worth checking out.

https://youtu.be/3ODu2RZIuXk?list=PLRv9 ... y7d-H6UJUz

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

Shep wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:12 am
... I was wondering if you have watched Boss of The Swamp on youtube ...
Hi Shep,

I have not seen Boss of the Swamp but I'll check him out. Thanks for the link.

Yeah, there's the realization that the amount of wick left in the candle is getting shorter, but that's not one I dwell on too much. I tend to couch it more in terms of how I expect my physical ability to hold up against the kinds of things I want to be doing rather than hitting the end of the line. There's even less time left for me to be doing vigorous young man things! Fortunately the overarching trajectory is positive for me in the sense that there are things I am moving toward rather than negatives I'm fleeing, so the regrets are part of the richness of life instead of a hindrance to it.

Being around my age maybe you'll understand what I call the "assembly line". Growing up so much seemed preordained: you went to school, stayed out of serious trouble, maybe got a degree, got a job, wore a tie, etc., etc. I never gave alternatives a serious thought until I contemplated ER. In that paradigm the major part of life is the career part, and deliberately breaking from the script is a significant disruption which tends to magnify the change.

George the original one
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by George the original one »

IlliniDave wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:12 pm
There's even less time left for me to be doing vigorous young man things!
I'm trying to emulate "Last of the Summer Wine" in that regard. Definitely am indulging a lot of the "I want to..." and "I don't want to..." sentiments of a kid.

IlliniDave
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Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Post by IlliniDave »

August 2017 Update

This entry comes whilst traveling. The last few days of the month were a little chaotic so I'm a little behind with all the numbers. Invested asset were up a little over $14,000. Another disappointing month for spending but I got hit with both some doctor bills and some overdue auto maintenance prior to my road trip. I think once I get everything tallied up it will push $4,000. Que Sera.

If I quit now my nominal estimates would be for financial asset growth of 10-11% between now and age 70, and accelerated growth thereafter. My approximate multiples are 37x (now to 70) and 50x (now to 80) average anticipated withdrawals. If things proceed roughly according to plan and I wait to 55 to bug out I project to be at 100x (age 55 to 80) anticipated average withdrawals.

I arrived in Illinois yesterday afternoon. My mom looks increasing frail, but less so than I was expecting from what I'd been hearing. She got the preliminary results back from a scan earlier in the week which are reasonably encouraging. The new drug appears to be significantly slowing the growth of the cancer, and apparently preventing it from spreading, and her quality of life is much better than with chemo. I suppose that's a win at this point: gaining more time with better QoL. She goess in to see the oncologist Tuesday so more will be known then. Dad's age is starting to show too. He's 78 now and I think things w/Mom are taking their toll. Still, he was able to complete the main grape harvest yesterday. I was supposed to participate but my trip got delayed due to my having to get some medical attention last week which caused a 2-day slip in my travel plans, and for winemaking the harvest window is very narrow and couldn't be delayed. Luckily he got some help from among my siblings and their SOs.

I'll probably head on up to the cabin Tuesday or Wednesday. Looks like it will be another solo trip. My brother has had difficulty nailing down some time off work. He started a new job this Spring and still being ineligible for paid vacation makes it difficult for him. I'm a little disappointed as I'd hoped to be able to share the cabin more, but going solo has an appeal as well. Photobucket is angry at me, and expects me to pay them to share pictures here, so I don't think I'll get to add any here.

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