BlueNote's Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
jacob
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by jacob »

You need to angle the brake pads in towards the rim so the front of the pad is the first to touch and the whole pad contacts when you apply full force.

spoonman
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by spoonman »

That's a very interesting analysis. I like the fact that you are using the Chowder score. It's difficult to go wrong with companies like PG and SO. CSX has always interested me, but I loaded up NSC back when it was $57 and by the time I was done with it CSX had gotten away from me.

BlueNote
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

jacob wrote:You need to angle the brake pads in towards the rim so the front of the pad is the first to touch and the whole pad contacts when you apply full force.
That seems to have been what did the trick. I used a nickel to shim the back of the pad and then pulled the brake tight, loosened the pad screw and retightened it in the new forward slanting position.

I also cleaned the pads and rims with a little alcohol and sanded the pads down a little which didn't do anything to help.

I am working on getting all the gears to change properly now, I still can't shift into the lowest gear which has been a problem I have avoided solving since last year.

Tons of youtube videos on how to do this are available so it should be no problem with a little education.
spoonman wrote:That's a very interesting analysis. I like the fact that you are using the Chowder score. It's difficult to go wrong with companies like PG and SO. CSX has always interested me, but I loaded up NSC back when it was $57 and by the time I was done with it CSX had gotten away from me.
CSX is interesting but my analysis only shows that it is barely (5%) undervalued, so really almost no margin of safety in the price which is almost always the best form of risk control. Also railroads are very capital intense so they are slow growers but often solid long term investments due to the network effect competitive moat they have.

In fact of all the stocks in my final list BHP Billiton appears to be the most under valued on a relative and intrinsic value basis. I am not recommending it but I think it deserves a closer look by DGI investors because it's about the only basic materials stock out there that has a competitive moat (scale) and their diversification model is good at reducing the wipeout risk and cyclicality that most basic materials companies face.

Also the discounts to fair value on the final list are minimal, it's not like a year ago when I could probably have produced a list of 10 or 20 possibilities with some prices at 70% of fair value. The market of "BlueNote" stocks appears fairly or possibly slightly over valued. I am putting at least 1/4 of my net worth into the money market and will probably put 1/2 to 3/4 in if the market keeps going up. I guess if investing didn't get difficult at some point everyone would be doing it and making money like water.

I also increased my stake in berkshire hathaway class b stock. It's the only stock I own that doesn't pay a dividend, seems a little under valued right now when I compare current book value per share to historical averages. So I think it's fairly valued if my growth estimates are too rosy or undervalued if they aren't.

BlueNote
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

My Day in Pictures May 28, 2014




Image2014-05-28 17.41.38 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

Beautiful day to ride the bike. The squeaky front brake has returned, I need to work on that again. I think I need to sand or file off a good amount of the brake pad based on my research. There probably a grain of sand or something that is causing the crazy screeching noise.

Image2014-05-28 19.55.56 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

I was working on my bikes gears and thought I had failed in getting it to switch to the lowest gear. However I was working with my bike flipped over which prevented the gear switching mechanism from catching properly on the largest gear. Once the bike was wheels down the gears switched properly, which surprised and delighted me on my way home. Luckily I didn't over adjust the limit screw or I might have thrown the chain and gear changing mechanism into my back wheel inadvertently :(


ImageIMG_20140528_195452 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

I did this coming out of my parking spot, will probably cost me a pretty penny. Some of it is right down to the metal

henrik
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by henrik »

I have the same problem with my front breaks. They work fine, but the noise is annoying. Let us know when you figure it out:)

BlueNote
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

My Day in Pictures -- Thus May 29, 2014



ImageIMG_20140529_080640 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

Another beautiful day to be alive (and biking)!



ImageIMG_20140529_183742 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

See if you can find the worst car park job of the day in the picture above.



ImageIMG_20140529_211223 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

Poor Charlie's Almanac is an awesome book. I suspect Charlie Munger is an INTP or ENTP MBTI personality type judging by his vast scope of knowledge and insatiable curiosity about just about everything. It's going to take a while to finish this book. It's intellectual and broad, at the same time folksy and humorous. The guy learned darwinian natural selection in his seventies. Stoicism, Darwin, Branding, Plato, ethics, accounting are just the tip of the iceberg. I feel like I need to take months of mathematics and science courses to get his point on physics being a cornerstone mental model for life. The topics are interesting and all over the place I love it.



A great friend of mine came over and we grabbed a pizza for dinner, a good day all around.

BlueNote
Posts: 501
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

Bike Stuff

I got a bike stand for my bike. I bought new. I couldn't find a free one or a decent used one on craigslist or kijiji. It works great for me and cost about $120

Brake Squealing:

Recently both the front and back wheels squeal when braking.

I cleaned the back wheel with a 3M green scrubby using car soap and water which fixed the issue.

The front squeal is still with us, haunting our dreams and annoying the fine people of Toronto.

I have tried the following steps to remedy the issue:

1. clean with a wet wipe
2. Toeing in my original brake pads
3. sanding my original brake pads
4. replacing the brake pads with new
5. cleaning with a green scrubby using car soap and water (with oomph)
6. Using sand paper on the rims
7. applying a tiny bit of fluid film to the rims (marginally effective but reduces braking power)

Tomorrow I am going to try my Mr. Clean magic eraser on the rims, I think I have isolated this to a rim problem now because I get the same problem when using toed in new pads.

I also had to repair my bike on my way home from work with my little repair kit. My chain fell off and got lodged between the frame and the pedal crank shaft. I am not good mechanically so this was a proud moment.

Stock Market

Can't say I like my options right now. Market appears overpriced by most metrics (p/e, CAPE etc.) Not many good dividend growth stocks at the right price.

Researched small cap value investing. Very interesting area but not my cup of tea because i don't have the time to devote to this. However if I was able to invest into a large enough group of Net-Net stocks I would probably throw some money into this area. The portfolio diversification should reduce the risk substantially enough for me to likely make excellent returns. They aren't very common in the US market but you do see a good amount in Canada compared to the US. Ben Graham used this technique successfully during and after the great depression.

EdithKeeler
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by EdithKeeler »

Just want to say how much I like the pictures! Especially love the one with the clover, I guess it is? (May 28)

BlueNote
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

@Edith: I thought I would try a more visual approach glad you enjoy it . There is a wide variety of vegetation on my bike ride. The city seems to let it grow naturally occasionally mowing it down. There's probably some clover in there though.

BlueNote
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

Does anyone who knows anything about derailleurs and bike gears know if this part should be swinging down lower?

It seems too high which seems to be interfering with smooth gear changing to the lowest gear. I have tried adjusting the 'b' screw which has absolutely no effect whatsoever. Do I need to shorten the chain to get the derailleur arm to swing lower?


Image2014-06-17_09-55-45 by bluenote_ere, on Flickr



Saving and investing


BTW I am still saving at least 50% of my take home, more when you count the massive tax return I received from my RRSP contributions (like a 401k in America).

I don't know if the market is really overvalued right now. If you look at P/E ratios it appears overvalued historically. People are ringing the bubble bell because of this. However compared to bonds the yield on stocks are decent. I always look at the earnings yield on potential buys vs 10-20 year government bonds. Here is a very good and thought provoking article on the subject, requires some knowledge of stock valuation.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Does anyone who knows anything about derailleurs and bike gears know if this part should be swinging down lower?

It seems too high which seems to be interfering with smooth gear changing to the lowest gear. I have tried adjusting the 'b' screw which has absolutely no effect whatsoever. Do I need to shorten the chain to get the derailleur arm to swing lower?
I'm no expert but I'll jump in.

This is a good guide for getting your chain length right: http://www.parktool.com/blog/repair-hel ... gth-sizing Make sure the chain is the right length first.

Then adjust the derailler: http://www.parktool.com/blog/repair-hel ... derailleur

Pull on the cable itself rather than using the shifter to get onto the smallest cog. If it won't go on or bounces on and off it is probably that your limit screw isn't letting the derailler move outboard far enough.

If you can't remember the last time you changed the shift cable change it. Change the housing at the same time. I like to buy 5mm housing and ends in bulk. A lot of shifting problems are sticky cables.

Good luck! Rear deraillers can be a pain.

BlueNote
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

my bike

My brakes on my bike barely squeal anymore. I don't know why but I am happy squealing has subsided.

@ Gilberto thank you very much for the links and advice I will take them under advisement. I suspect chain length may be the problem however it's not worth the trouble to fix because my bike seems to be functioning pretty much properly otherwise. I can still gear down to the lowest gear it just grinds a lot.

Fat Bike

Has anyone ridden one of these types of bikes in the snow and ice? I am considering getting one for my winter commute.

Image*SURLY* moonlander complete bike by Blue Lug, on Flickr

Calorie Counting

I am trying to lose weight through dieting by reducing my calorie intake below my normal daily requirements and exercise. I am not going to try anything off the beaten path though just plain old reduction in calories while maintaining the generally recommended macro nutrient proportions and micronutrient recommendations. It's all very sensible, I count calories with the "my fitness pal" app and it tells me how many I have left in a day. It's almost like you have to eat healthy food for this to work because calorie dense good generally doesn't provide near the satiety as does a similar volume of calorie dense food (like butter vs celery).

2 questions

1. How the hell is anyone supposed to get 3,500mg of potassium a day. I ate two bananas and an avocado and I am not even half way there today. Beans might be my salvation!

2. How do I only eat 2,300 MG of sodium a day? I always go over, I like to salt my food. Food tastes way worse to me without a little salt. I have extremely good blood pressure levels and am healthy on most metrics other then weight so I am not too worried. However I'll need to think about the salt thing.


I find the diet industry to be full of kooks, charlatans and heavily biased people, it's just chalk full of them and I say that without trying to be funny. It's almost impossible to avoid these folks who sell or give away dieting information that really has little to no scientific merit as if it were the next origin of the species or something. Sometimes they won't cite studies at all, they just name something scientific sounding and say that it's based some science like evolution (see paleo for example). I think that's what people call pseudo science. Anyways that's the end of my rant.


investments

Its almost time to run my monthly stock screen again. Last time I barely turned up any results. I may be missing some good deals but it's probably better in investing to avoid large losses then to take more risk to get a little more return. My system is designed with long term risk control first and returns second.

sky
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by sky »

keto phasing into paleo is the diet true path

not that I would know

he says drinking a homebrew beer

BlueNote
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

June 21, 2014

Health

I lost about 5lbs this week through calorie counting. A lot of the initial weight loss is probably water.

My system is to eat about 500 fewer calories a day then my body requires while otherwise maintaining proper nutrition. In terms of nutrition I follow the guidelines in the myfitnesspal app, I may need to double check that they represent current best practices but they seem reasonable.

I also exercise by riding my bike to work. I am thinking of also starting some resistance training and getting some kettlebells for that.

June 2014 BlueNote stock screen


ImageUntitled by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

Note: These stocks and metrics provided are just for informational purposes and aren’t reccomendations. I screen using a litany of factors including ROIC, ROE, M* Moat, Industry and many others.

CSX fell of the list because it’s price went up to M* Fair Value. Procter and gamble fell of the list because it is just too close to call when looking at a standard fast graphs chart. PG is probably one of those great company at fair price situations and I would like to make it a core part of my portfolio so I will keep my eye on it.

Baxter is a newcomer to the list. The funny thing about Baxter is that it coincidentally popped up in my quantitative screen at the same time Dividend Mantra also made it his most recent buy. The fact that I knew about this in advance may have had some effect on me through the social proof mental model but it didn't have had an affect on my screen which because it is a cold heartless algorithm. Therefore I am not worried about the possible bias because it wouldn't matter either way as Baxter is clearly the best pick my system could generate for my portfolio (I already own too much HCP and BHP to add more right now.)

I will be buying up some Baxter shares because my investing strategy is partially based on the ideas in the book “The Future For Investors” by Jeremy Siegel. In that book Healthcare/Pharma, Energy and Consumer Defensive sectors are shown to outperform other sectors in almost all long term scenarios. I have no Healthcare sector exposure right now so this will get my portfolio into a good position on those three sectors. Also the valuation is good, safety scores are excellent and the dividend growth history is solid. BAxter is planning on spinning off part of the company into a new stock. As per the aforementioned Jeremy Siegel book I will be keeping all spin off's generated from my holdings so it should be interesting to see how well this goes.

I was doing my due diligence on Williams (WPZ) and unfortunately it’s MLP legal entity status creates major tax headwinds for me because I am a Canadian. Therefore all US MLP entities are off the table unless severely discounted (30-40% at least). Americans should definitely take a good hard look at this MLP. I would definitely take a position in it if I were an American (Safe, 20% discount to FV, wide moat, decent dividend increase history).

Hopefully my system can shake out another worthy BlueNote stock next month.

Gilberto de Piento
Posts: 1942
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Fat Bike

Has anyone ridden one of these types of bikes in the snow and ice? I am considering getting one for my winter commute.
I have ridden a pugsley a little but I haven't owned one. They have become really popular in the upper midwest but in my opinion are a fad for most of the people who bought them.

What are your winter riding conditions usually like? Fatbikes work better than other bikes on fluffy snow but are no better than a mountain bike on ice (unless you get studded tires). I winter commute on a 29er mountain bike with fenders and 700x35 nokian studded tires. It doesn't float on snow at all but since the problem is usually ice it works well enough. The studded tires help a lot but it still requires skill to ride in bad conditions. A fatbike may be more forgiving.

BlueNote
Posts: 501
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

Winter Bike

I am going to get a used mountain bike and winterize it. The winter will probably depreciate the bike rapidly therefore I will get an aluminum frame/forks which should prevent the whole bike from becoming a rust bucket.

Health

I continue to lose weight through calorie counting, its been a bit of an up and down ride but so far so good.

Savings

I've been reading YMOYL (Your money or your life) and created the graph they depict in the book showing my income, expenses and a line for investment income.

I don't know if it is exactly accurate but according to Mint and my brokerage account it looks like this right now:

Imageimage (1) by bluenote_ere, on Flickr

Stop Working Here's How you Can, by Derek Foster

This guy bills himself as Canada's youngest retiree at 34. Says he did it with what is basically a dividend growth strategy. The book is basic but has good advice. It's what is lacking in the book that makes me think it is mediocre. Also he makes judicious use of large font, thick margins and line spacing to make what would be a thin book into a novel sized book. Since he wrote the book he has come out and said that he made a large risky bet on Phillip morrisback in the 90's which paid off well and accelerated his early retirement, no mention of that in his book. He also caved during the '08 stock bust and sold all his holdings. I don't consider this guy to be in the same league as Jacob but he's definitely achieved something noteworthy as a result of enterprise and frugality.

jacob
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Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by jacob »

Even steel---the frame---won't rust. Your main concern is the drive train. If you want to avoid rust, clean it often, but which I mean almost or even daily, depending on how salty the roads get.

BlueNote
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by BlueNote »

jacob wrote:Even steel---the frame---won't rust. Your main concern is the drive train. If you want to avoid rust, clean it often, but which I mean almost or even daily, depending on how salty the roads get.
Thanks, Toronto seems to use a lot of salt so I'll probably have to clean the drive train almost every day.

Chad
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Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by Chad »

BlueNote wrote:He also caved during the '08 stock bust and sold all his holdings. I don't consider this guy to be in the same league as Jacob but he's definitely achieved something noteworthy as a result of enterprise and frugality.
This doesn't make a lot of sense if you are a dividend investor. If you are buying the top tier dividend companies (Exxon, Phillip Morris, etc.), and one would assume any dividend investor is as they are on every dividend list, there is no reason to sell in a downturn. These companies almost never have a hiccup in dividends, so if you are retired and living off of dividends you don't even notice the downturn. He seems a little shaky.

henrik
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Location: EE

Re: BlueNote's Journal

Post by henrik »

BlueNote wrote:My brakes on my bike barely squeal anymore. I don't know why but I am happy squealing has subsided.
Mine are quiet now too, but I had to replace the pads to achieve it (the old ones were not worn out at all, probably just some weird material). Maybe I should have waited it out as well:)

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