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Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:03 am
by Frita
Good points, I figured (hoped) this predicament would right itself at some point. Yet the situation somehow continues to worsen. My spouse and I were talking yesterday about our emotions regarding this. Not anxiety, not fear, just profound disgust. ( I suppose doublebinds will do that to a person.)

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:57 pm
by Generation-X
I think we may hit a temporary pause here, for two reasons:

1. the market is way oversold.

2. the Fed is pretty much using everything in its arsenal:
* the Quantitative Easing at an unlimited amount (so they say) buying bonds (treasuries and MBS)
* Fed will buy corporate debt
* Fed will cover muni debt and CD's
* Fed will essentially cover credit card loans, car loans, student loands and small business loans.
* Fed is ready to inject 300B into "employers, consumers and businesses" ... 00323b.htm ... mortgages/

Decided to take a small chance that this will be enough to stop the market in the near term.

I've taken a small long call position in the market. I suspect that risk/reward is 1:3 or more.

Also established a small long term position in gold today, taking advantage of the recent pullback in GDXJ and the likelihood that QE will boost gold prices in the longer term. This is a risky position and as such, I avoided options and purchased it outright to hold for the longer term.

It is probably likely that these measures will push the intermediate trend higher but will probably fail in the long term (months) imo, without a permanent solution (vaccine and resuming normal economic activity).

Time will tell.

P.S. Couldn't help but think of the Fed(s) of the world with this wonderful video. Somehow, it seems to fit.

These artists do a wonderful job of expressing the current irony. :D

(Yes I find self amusement does wonders for one's emotions during stressful times)

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:30 am
by Generation-X
Corona Map Update - 11 days later

43,264 infected, 537 dead


Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:36 pm
by Generation-X
And so on Monday night he made the ultimate gesture of selfishness: Defying the pleas of scientists and public health experts, he said he would reopen the economy in the next few weeks.

“I’m not looking at months, I can tell you right now,” he announced at the White House on Monday night. “We’re going to be opening up our country,” he added.

Missing from the podium in the White House briefing room was Tony Fauci, the infectious disease chief from the National Institutes of Health who had criticized Trump in an interview Sunday. Trump on Monday dismissed “the doctors” who would “shut down the entire world” and “keep it shut for a couple of years.”

So this is what it has come to: To preserve political viability, he’s willing to risk the lives of millions. ... us-crisis/

Note to Donald: God IS watching you.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:23 pm
by Generation-X
The dcb is going well so far, and I will probably start looking to exit at some point.

The big question is, will the stimulus be passed soon? And the bigger question is, can it sustain this rally for a while?

Do I believe that this is a major trend setting change? No, I believe it's the Fed flexing its muscle (and you don't fight the Fed) in one of its probably last acts.

History has proven over and over again that as the bubble gets bigger and bigger, it takes more and more stimulus to maintain the bubble. But the end result will be a decimation.

Are we close to that financial armageddon? Probably much closer now, with 10 trillion dollars being tossed around like it's nothing in (what was) a 21 trillion dollar economy.

The ultimate question is, how long will the faith in the dollar last, by the rest of the world, and the buyers of our debt?

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
by Generation-X
Watching the dow attempting to push through...

OK this is the last attempt of the day to push through before market closes so if it fails here, I will likely close out of all positions and re-assess.

Closed out.

Two reasons -

1. The stimulus hasn't cleared the house yet, and it will take time to pass the bill and there still is a chance that it may not.

2. If the bill passes overnight, then I've missed out on additional gains but either way I've gained. Chances are it will not, and this will probably give the market a chance to cool down a bit before resuming higher (if it resumes higher). The lower hanging fruit has been picked. I can think about the next approach and decide on what to do while the market lulls on the stimulus bill.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:46 pm
by Generation-X
Boeing has gained 60% in 2-days.

Clearly BA has the most to gain from this bailout package (to the tune of 17 billion) thanks to the tax payer money. ... FydCJ9fX19

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:49 pm
by jacob ... uity-stake
Boeing CEO wrote: Calhoun said in an interview with Fox Business Network that it’s “not ideal” for Boeing to surrender equity to the federal government and “if they force it, we just look at all the other options, and we’ve got plenty of them.”
Wait, what?!

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:52 pm
by Generation-X
interesting... tks for the link! Will need to do some thinking. (Buffett is sitting on cash...)

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:53 am
by Generation-X
Total Cost of Her COVID-19 Treatment: $34,927.43

The social safety net, such as medicare and social security exist for a reason.

It is the idea of pooling together to lower the financial risk in healthcare and some basic income (essentially poverty level) for those that do not have a billion dollars sitting in a bank. (That would be 99% of you)

As much as the current so-called "Republicans" wants you to believe, this is not a political topic. This is why we pay taxes - WE ARE INSURING OURSELVES IN A RISK MANAGEMENT POOL.

This was the wisdom that came out of the Great Depression - which was FAR FAR WORSE than what we're currently experiencing.

Following a fool will not set you free.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:38 am
by ertyu
No it won't, but it'll feel like they're owning the libs all the way to the cliff edge

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:50 am
by Generation-X
Only the masochists and the so-called Trump "Republicans" would enjoy cutting their own throats I suppose. I guess I'm just a "traditional" one.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:10 am
by Generation-X
OK, is it going to break through here...

should pullback to 21.8k.. If not we're going through. Hesitant market today.

OK out of BA +16 .. that's enough action for today. May enter later depending on what market does.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:23 pm
by Generation-X
Coronavirus Update - 3 days later


Apparently, California's Coronavirus death rate is on a trajectory of doubling every 3 and 1/2 days (at day 8), and the only other country that did better was South Korea.

The traffic is noticeably lighter than usual and most people are staying home to help prevent the spreading of the disease.

Despite this, some of the Conservative ( Actually, at this point I would have to say they're just Trump supporters and not real conservatives ) acquaintances that we know are in heavy denial and believe all this to be a conspiracy propaganda by the media and/or government and they're not sheltering in place.

We will be staying away from these people for a good period of time. We have never seen such ignorance and act of selfishness, it's a shame.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:45 pm
by Generation-X
The US now has most confirmed coronavirus cases in the world ... ases-world ... 0c0134b217

Coronavirus: Trump plans to rank US counties by risk in bid to reopen economy ... 28946.html

32 Economists From Both Major Parties Sign Letter Urging U.S. Not to Open Country Prematurely ... ematurely/

"You don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline": Dr. Fauci delivers frank message on coronavirus ... l-it-last/

The election couldn't come soon enough - I am willing to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate to save our country as a conservative.

God help us.

Why 'Exponential Growth' Is So Scary For The COVID-19 Coronavirus ... 764664e9b2 ... rd_problem

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:43 pm
by Generation-X
Federal government is missing in action - what are they doing?

A massive stockpile of 39 million N95 masks is being sold to American hospitals — around 27 million more than the US government's emergency stockpile

..The union launched an exhaustive search for masks and other personal protective equipment (PPE) five days ago in response to pleas from frontline healthcare workers that they need more protection and feel unsafe on the job as they treat the growing number of COVID-19 patients. SEIU-UHW has 97,000 members who work in hospitals across California. ..

“We want the masks to be distributed as widely as possible. Unfortunately, we don’t have enough to go beyond California and New York, and so far hospitals in Arizona have not responded to an offer of 2 million masks, but as we locate more masks we want to expand the circulation as much as possible,” Regan said. “While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stopgap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic. We urgently need the federal government to step in and drive a coordinated national response to the PPE shortage.” ... n95-masks/ ... ion-2020-3

National Cathedral, Nasdaq, Businesses and Unions Locate Troves of N95 Masks
One stockpile was in the cathedral’s crypt. Others were with companies like Goldman Sachs. And a health care union said it found 39 million more. ... virus.html

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:18 am
by Generation-X
Realistically, the situation regarding the contraction of coronavirus can be viewed as a probability.

Apparently, population density matters a great deal, judging by the explosion happening right now in New York.

My guess is that as more people are packed into a given area, like in a city, the lack of separation among the populace increases the chances of being hit by the virus ( i.e. imagine playing battleship and each and every cough and sneeze around you is an attempt at sinking your battleship - now imagine trying to walk through Times Square on New Year's Eve while trying to avoid random coughs and sneezes of the crowd around you).

Since there are more people per area, naturally that means more people touch certain key fixtures - certain doors, elevators, escalators, crosswalk buttons, etc. - because the daily route and routine of each person is amazingly consistent, in my experience. So if part of my route contains these key fixtures that a large number of people also go through, clearly this increases the probability of these key fixtures being tainted and in turn transmitting the virus to me. Then the next question becomes, what was the viral dosage in exposure after touching the tainted object and how much of the virus stuck to the hands and the fingers? And ultimately, how many times did I subconsciously rubbed my eyes and nose and touched my mouth to allow the virus passage through the moist, mucous membrane? - Clearly, having more people per area touching things, increases the frequency of transfer of the virus from object to object and thus raises the probability and we get New York.

Fortunately, we are more spread out here in California. But even then, I actually tried to be conscious of what I touched while engaged in normal activities such as of pumping gas, buying groceries, eating out, etc. Then it became clear why so many grocery stores had automatic doors, touchless faucets and soap/towel dispensers. They were already trying to minimize disease transfer at areas where high number of people routinely congregated. The clear problem areas were the objects that were limited in number per population, such as gas pumps, shopping carts, manual doors and even fountain drink dispenser buttons that the community at large shared with one another and of course - being nailed by droplets from other people's coughs and sneezes.

I'm guessing that even though California is more spread out, the chances of these community shared items being tainted with enough viral dosage to infect one person after another, increases proportionally as the contagion spreads to ever higher numbers in the region. And compounding the problem is that we don't know who is infected due to shortage of test kits to isolate them and the shortage of PPE among the population, let alone among the healthcare providers to reduce the infection. And there is the fed missing in action due to Donald the fool. At least we have a vibrant, young governor who has shown that he is capable of listening to the experts and take sensible action to protect the public. (I think he is aiming for the whitehouse.)

So, my approach will be a complete isolation during the peak of the epidemic which appears underway. I will be stocking up a bit earlier to stay completely isolated for few weeks longer than planned and also to stay ahead of the peak. I will be using my own bag for shopping.

At the peak, everything will be in short supply, including the hospital beds. Not getting sick in essence, is helping out the others.

It's all a probability. But there is no rationality in playing the Russian roulette to find out- for everyone's sake.

P.S. Coronavirus Update during the journal entry (1 day later)

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:35 am
by Generation-X
OK, we're back to the red this AM...

Maybe heading toward 21.5k bounce - correction, 21.6k..

(Interesing, BA decided not to take the bailout after all - BA dropping hard) (gdxj following the market down)

Ok it's looking as if it may not bounce at 21.6k after all, waiting to see what happens..

Well, clearly this is intended to put pressure on the house for the bailout vote - the question is will the market reverse after the passage?

ok we're starting to bounce here.. (but it looks like a head fake to me though.. we'll see) Market is trying to decide here..

Well, while waiting for the market to resume its way down, I will need to think about if I'm going to hold over the weekend...

Nice, dismantle Obamacare during a height of an epidemic, that will teach the people! (Who ARE these people?) (They're not getting the ERE vote, that's for sure) ... 18734.html

second test.. a nice background music while waiting (

If dow can hold here, that would be a good thing, it appears that it will try to test again

House debates live -

It is starting to think about losing it here. Mostly coiling while waiting for the house decision. would be more fun to watch paint dry at times like this.

As a side, this experience of staying put for few weeks will provide a snapshot of what it would be like to be retired. Thus far, it is comfortable, like recharging the battery. Slight feel of guilt, without the normal structured daily routine - a routine for retirement will have to be developed when the time comes.

Everyone is waiting for that bailout.. but after that, then what? The fundamentals haven't changed, we're still in the desert looking for water here.

Ok voting begins. one more speech. It has passed the house for the signature. I've taken a small long call position and will hold it over the weekend.

Off to brunch.

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:02 pm
by Generation-X
Nothing to see here, move on. (Jumped the fence to the other side)

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:05 pm
by Generation-X
Coronavirus-related distributions (CVDs)

There is an interesting article from Marketwatch regarding the recently signed coronavirus relief bill.

IRA owners who are adversely affected by the coronavirus pandemic (and there will be plenty of them) will be eligible to take tax-favored coronavirus-related distributions from their IRAs. To keep things simple, let’s call these distributions CVDs. They can add up to as much as $100,000. You can recontribute a CVD back into your IRA within three years of the withdrawal date and treat the withdrawal and later recontribution as a totally tax-free rollover.

You can take one or more CVDs up to the $100,000 limit, and they can come from different IRAs. The three-year recontribution period for each CVD begins on the day after you receive it. You can make your recontributions in a lump sum, or you can make multiple recontributions. You can recontribute to one or several IRAs, and they don’t have to be the same account(s) you took the CVD(s) from in the first place.

As long as you recontribute the entire CVD amount within the three-year window, the whole deal is treated as a tax-free IRA rollover transaction or a series of tax-free rollover transactions. If you’re under age 59½, the dreaded 10% penalty tax that usually applies to early IRA withdrawals does not apply to CVDs.

Can I take a CVD from my tax-favored company retirement plan?
Yes, if your company allows it under rules similar to those for IRAs. Employers and the IRS have work to do to figure out the details. ... and-loans/ ... ment-money ... 2020-03-27

Essentially, for the IRA accounts, this will be a 3-year rollover up to 100k that does not require a lump sum payback (rollover) as long as the payback (rollover) is completed within 3 years. In case of a distribution, it appears the 10% penalty is waived for those that are younger than 59 1/2 for up to 100k.

How would the rules for retirement plans work? Since the current retirement plans allow loans up to 5 years, but limits the amount to 50k, perhaps they will simply increase the loan amount to 100k and waive the interest requirement? Or could it be a parallel approach where both options will exist at same time?

So this would be, in effect, a 100k loan at 0%, 36 month term.

Does the middle class really have this kind of savings lying around?

Per Bloomberg --

"The legislation requires that the money be a “coronavirus-related distribution,” but the rules are loose. People diagnosed with the virus are eligible, along with anyone who “experiences adverse financial consequences” as a result of the pandemic, including an inability to find work or child care. Retirement plan sponsors are told to rely on employees’ word that they’re eligible."

It also makes it easier to borrow money from 401(k) accounts, raising the limit to $100,000 from $50,000. The payment dates for any loans due the rest of 2020 will be extended for a year.

One provision in the bill would let investors of any age take as much as $100,000 from retirement accounts this year without paying an early withdrawal penalty. They also could avoid taxes on the withdrawal if the money is put back in the account within three years. If it can’t be returned, taxes could be paid over three years.

These distributions are subject to income tax withholding at 10% unless the participant elects a different percentage. -- mcaffeetaft

If these turn out to be true, then this would present an arbitrage opportunity. Currently, 36 month term CD is around 2% -- that's about $6,000.

Touching and spending retirement money is a very foolish thing to do, and I certainly have no intention of spending my retirement money to re-elect this fool. It will be locked up in a CD generating interest.