Generation-X' Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Took 90% out with a small profit. Left 10% in to see if the market will bounce back in the afternoon. Time to go to work.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Currently the futures is pointing to about -1,300 down open tomorrow. I will be watching out for 24k level at this juncture.

We still have a long ways to go for proper valuations imo. Just the same, I will start the valuation analysis beginning next week.

I will also be looking at entry for dcb calls.


Thoughts on gold: Trade wise, gold is at an interesting juncture at this point. Normally, gold will follow the market down in a down turn until the Fed embarks on a helicopter money (Quantitative Easing) policy. Since the Fed is already cutting rates, gold may sustain its level for a while. (I would much prefer to see it pull back) But ultimately, if the Fed decides to proceed with the NIRP, this will probably cause gold to launch vertical.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

If this is a true market downturn, then the sell off is just beginning.

I do not like what I'm seeing right now in the reaction to the sell off, as it is revealing much more weakness in the underlying market.

We are still above the last minor correction in 2018. If the market tests and fails the 24k level this will not bode well.

Furthermore, if market tests down to 22.4k and fails again, then we will have a major down trend at that point. This is the critical level.

One of the differences that I notice from the dot-com crash is that movements are much more drastic and sharper, due to the computerized trading.

Of course, higher the index, more points to cover the same percentage drop - but even so, the movements are very rapid to the eye.

Higher volatility is advantageous to a trader. It is essentially turning a swing trade into a day trade where the feed back is almost instantaneous (an instant gratification?) where a patience would normally be required. I will keep myself in check at regular intervals from getting too carried away.

I'm not looking for a home run, just some singles as much as the market would allow. ( For an algo, a swing trade is an eternity. But it does not have infinite amount of funds. ;) )

If the major down trend is confirmed, I will be looking to implement the next phase of the long term plan.

I also suspect that the interest rate will continue its downward spiral. If the recession comes to fruition and the mass layoffs begin, I will be watching the housing market with interest.

classical_Liberal
Posts: 1905
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by classical_Liberal »

Generation-X wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:24 am
I will be watching the housing market with interest.
Don't forget a potential fire sale on adventure vehicles for the US cross country tour. People will sell their toys at a huge discount before they let their house go. Maybe we can both upgrade to a small RV's for our respective trips? :D

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Good point - as things stand it is becoming more likely that we're headed for a long term down trend. If so, will be a lot of cheap vehicles and houses on the market before long.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Why a fool must not be allowed to lead a nation


Trump administration budget cuts could become a major problem as coronavirus spreads
https://fortune.com/2020/02/26/coronavi ... -us-trump/

Thanks to this zealous idiotic fool's meddling about with our nation, we now face our first serious and direct consequences of this man's actions.

Thus far, the stock market has taken more than 5 Trillion dollars from our retirement savings and 37 people are confirmed dead.

The death toll is rapidly rising and it is clear that all the other fools that serve this zealous idiotic fool in the whitehouse are ill equipped to deal with this crisis of their own making.

Image

Lip service does not bring back the dead. A petty payroll tax cut will not even come close to giving back the trillions that people have lost.

The display of vain can no longer be masked. Even a child can see that this fool isn't wearing anything at all.

A more dangerous fool is a fool that lusts after power at the expense of anything and everything. A fool that is more than willing to sacrifice his own people and his own nation for his own gain.

Absolute power, corrupts absolutely. Such a fool must never be allowed to lead a nation. Because the end result will be the suffering of millions under such fool's feet.


In the grand scheme of things, this is but a small virus outbreak on a global scale. Climate change will be coming.

And we all know, under such circumstances, the Almighty WILL rule over us all, even those who foolishly deny not wearing anything.

https://climate.nasa.gov/

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds


The madness of crowds for the corona virus epidemic is hitting California hard, as people are jamming the supermarkets and wholesale places everywhere for supplies.

First to go were the face masks.

Now there are empty shelves after empty shelves for things such as:

70% rubbing alcohol
disinfectants/wipes such as lysol, clorox
toilet paper
water

These were running out fast:
over the counter medicine
canned food
tv dinners
spaghetti, pasta, rice
feminine hygiene products

If the virus hasn't spread much so far, imo, the rush of crowd this weekend likely ensured spreading.


I found the following links helpful in my dealings with the current epidemic.

World Health Organization: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public: When and how to use masks
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... -use-masks

In the cloud: How coughs and sneezes float farther than you think
http://news.mit.edu/2014/coughs-and-sne ... -you-think

I was able to find instructions for a simple respiratory mask.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3373043/


Of course, Trump seized the moment of hardship for our nation as yet another opportunity to jeopardize more of his own people:

A federal court blocked the Trump administration's rule that would have forced 700,000 low-income Americans to lose access to the Supplemental Nutrition Access Program, known as SNAP or food stamps, on April 1.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/co ... t-n1158956

Eye of a needle.

The proper way to behave as a human being, whether epidemic or not, is clear - it is to behave opposite of Donald Trump. For all that awaits him, is the sword. (Matthew 26, 26:52)


For the young, love your neighbor - meaning think of others first. Really. Else you and everyone else you know will live in mutual misery. Life is far too short and precious for that.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Good simple video explaining what covid-19 infection symptoms will be like and what the possible outcomes are.


What COVID-19 symptoms look like, day by day

https://www.businessinsider.com/novel-c ... day-2020-3

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

continued.


So what I got out of the video is that:


COVID-19 is a viral respiratory disease that causes pneumonia in the lungs.

It takes between 2-14 days to show first symptom from exposure.

Symptoms include (from most common to least common):

Fever
Dry Cough
Phlegm Production
Fatigue
Shortness of breah
Joint or Muscle Pain
Sore Throat
Headache
Chills
Runny Nose

4 out of 5 people so far (as of 2/20/20) have suffered for a week or two or so and went on with their lives.

1 out of 5 people have needed hospital care to deal with the pneumonia. Of those that needed hospital care, about two thirds will recover and be released from the hospital after two and a half weeks, on the average. The remaining third needed advanced care (ICU) for serious conditions (about 6% of the total infected).

The death rate appears to be between 3-4% of the total infected. Slightly over half of those that need advanced care (ICU) do not appear to make it. Most deaths occurred between 14-19 days.

80% of the infected will self-cure. 14% will recover after 2 and 1/2 weeks average hospital stay. Another 3% will recover after a much longer hospital stay. The key to 97% recovery appears dependent on the health care system.

All of the store closures, social distancing, washing hands, preventing large gatherings and quarantine are measures to suppress infections from overwhelming the healthcare system capacity - i.e. these measures force people to be infected at different times over a longer period so that by the time the next group of newly infected arrives, the previous group would have recovered and are ready to be sent home.

These measures not only help stop the spread of the infection, but also ensure that 97% recovery can be achieved through the healthcare system without overrunning it.

Image
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases ... er#general

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Time to save lives


Governor of California has issued an executive order to stay-at-home, state-wide. https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except ... ial-needs/

At work, we have been told not to come in until further notice. I have procured just enough supplies to last for a couple of weeks.

It is my full intention to stay put until my supply runs out to minimize the possibility of contracting the disease as much as possible.

Am I afraid of this disease? No. I know my chances of recovery is very high.

But, if I can manage to stay out of the hospital by staying healthy, that is one more bed available for those that will really need it.

Trading inconvenience for a life? You bet it will be worth it.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Status Update 3/21


The net worth has increased to over 715k.

Savings has slowed down quite a bit, as I am now paying a lot more in income tax, in order to accumulate in after-tax.

I've also been actively trading. Everything was going well until the last sharp market downturn of almost 3k, where a trade went against me.

I was shorting the VIX on Friday which was going well especially after the national emergency declaration. I wanted to sell out of the market as it was moving higher toward the closing and did not want to hold the position over the weekend. Alas, due to a slight distraction from life, I could not exit the position in time and I knew it was a mistake. Unfortunately the fed cut the interest rate to zero in an emergency rate cut over the weekend and it pretty much wiped all my gains up until that point (and then some) when the market re-opened the next Monday. :roll:

Fortunately, the continued savings from working has maintained the net worth growth, albeit more slowly now due to saving in after-tax.

The market downturn has had no impact. The interest earned on the net worth is lower now, well below 4%, and I am keeping an eye on the fed's move toward NIRP.

The current plan is that I will be looking into resuming the index dollar cost averaging, probably starting at 2% of NW.

Market-wise it appears that we are headed to 18k level or so. We'll have to wait for the fat lady to sing for the market to move back up again.

And when she does, IMHO, this will be an intermediary trend, as the market will likely move down again after some time (weeks/months).

What I find interesting is that these so-called "Republicans" are preparing and leading the bailouts and quantitative easing. I believe these must the "Liberals" that the Trump and the gang (the Republican senate) have been trashing all along, because they certainly are dragging the country to hell in a handbasket to be drowned in debt for all eternity.

This certainly is NOT the Republican party - not even close. These are nothing but thugs holding the country hostage under the Republican namesake hungering for their own well being and interest. And they are incompetent!

And pay we shall, with our wiped out savings, our way of life, and now with endangered lives of our family and loved ones, for their incompetence.

Perhaps they will sell more stocks.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Die Zauberflöte


It appears another major down day on Monday - futures hit the 5% cutoff switch within minutes of opening.

And the fat lady is nowhere in sight to sing Donald Trump's Aria...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmqEGAgu2O8

Der Hölle Rache kocht in meinem Herzen,
Tod und Verzweiflung flammet um mich her!
Fühlt nicht durch dich Sarastro
Todesschmerzen,
So bist du meine Tochter nimmermehr.
Verstossen sei auf ewig,
Verlassen sei auf ewig,
Zertrümmert sei'n auf ewig
Alle Bande der Natur
Wenn nicht durch dich!
Sarastro wird erblassen!
Hört, Rachegötter,
Hört der Mutter Schwur!

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

The fat lady sings


Fed calls third emergency meeting, announces unprecedented moves to calm corporate debt
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-call ... 21252.html

Here’s how a Fed plan to support the corporate, municipal bond market would work
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2020-03-22

This is effectively saying, that Fed has lost control. I am not sure if the market will takes this positively - market hates uncertainty.


Unfortunately, this will not end well. Gold is popping.

She sings...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXQvPwYYVBI


Vissi d’arte, vissi d’amore,
non feci mai male ad anima viva!
Con man furtiva
quante miserie conobbi aiutai.
Sempre con fè sincera
la mia preghiera
ai santi tabernacoli salì.
Sempre con fè sincera
diedi fiori agl’altar.
Nell’ora del dolore
perchè, perchè, Signore,
perchè me ne rimuneri così?
Diedi gioielli della Madonna al manto,
e diedi il canto agli astri, al ciel,
che ne ridean più belli.
Nell’ora del dolor
perchè, perchè, Signor,
ah, perchè me ne rimuneri così?

ertyu
Posts: 1184
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by ertyu »

haven't fully loaded up on gold yet, i'm hopping for a little more deflation before shit hits the fan proper

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

If market falls, gold will likely follow, I would think. I am staying out - this is the time when you can really get hurt imho.

ertyu
Posts: 1184
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by ertyu »

I've placed buy orders at lower and lower prices. My plan is to buy gold miners and wait, that's as much as i have brains for

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

I think I'm going to wait and see where this heads, as I don't need (nor expect) to nail the exact bottom. For me right now, no losing is winning.

I can sit through this while earning around 3% interest. If Fed goes NIRP, that 3% will mean a lot more then.

And it appears, that (NIRP) is pretty much what the Fed has left. They've used up much of their normal arsenal.

We're back to 12 years ago, just with a lot more debt, and trying to pile on more.


OK we're going to dcb here, and if dow can stay above 19.8k-20k level, then at least Fed will have succeeded temporarily.

It may not even bounce that high, but we'll see.

Just my opinion, but Powell is making this worse. This is NOT the way to install confidence in the market, by ADMITTING that you've lost control.

ertyu
Posts: 1184
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by ertyu »

on waiting: probably the smartest way to go about it tbh.

on powell: he has lost control and is doing whatever he can. fiscal is the name of the game right now. and then inflating the debt away.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

Pretty soon we will not be able to inflate the debt away without sacrificing the economy (i.e. see Japan).

The market (corporations) is NOT the economy, it's the consumers.

It's the people - they need real jobs with real pay so that they can afford to raise their families without having to worry about the affordability of the basic necessities - such as housing, healthcare, education, and buying food.

Inflating stock prices is not the answer to the economy IMHO. If the consumer spending is 70% of our GDP, well, then make the people financially stronger and find ways to increase real wages for the people.

Financial engineering of the stock market does not benefit normal people except for the ultra rich 1% who own a large part of the market IMO.

Personally, I'd RATHER NOT pay a $200 cup of coffee to finance our internal debt. No thank you.

Generation-X
Posts: 334
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X »

OK we're done coiling here, so either we pop or drop.

The rich can afford to lose money like everyone else - the poor and the middle class should not be used as a financial engineering tool to provide socialism for the rich and bail them out every time the market drops.

The richest 10% own over 85% of the stocks - so why are we using public funds to bail them out? Please answer this for me.

Post Reply