Generation-X' Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:34 pm

Entered a long straddle @ 200.

I can not believe it's at 200.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrNCpkpFP6Q

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Festival

wolf
Posts: 648
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by wolf » Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:51 pm

Generation-X wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:03 am
...All future savings, both taxed and deferred will be invested in equities as the market undergoes the correction - naturally, the intent is to buy close to the bottom as much as possible.
Do you have a plan, how and when you buy equities? I have started a BEV (Bird's Eye View) for all of my portfolio positions, starting with 26th January. I think I will enter the market when something has decreased 20% in price.

Ist this correction (possible down-turn) in the market good for your FIRE-Plans?

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:55 am

wolf wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:51 pm
Generation-X wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:03 am
...All future savings, both taxed and deferred will be invested in equities as the market undergoes the correction - naturally, the intent is to buy close to the bottom as much as possible.
Do you have a plan, how and when you buy equities? I have started a BEV (Bird's Eye View) for all of my portfolio positions, starting with 26th January. I think I will enter the market when something has decreased 20% in price.

Ist this correction (possible down-turn) in the market good for your FIRE-Plans?
I think it depends on what the investment is. If it's the whole market - i.e. VOO, SPY, DIA etc., then the market will show when to buy - I just wait until the market goes back up. I use at least 10yr chart on monthly to get the B.E.V. of SPX, DJI etc.

So far, this is just a small blip on the 10yr monthly chart. Market hasn't even begun to move down yet. But once it does move, it will sell off for years in the long run, while retracing for months at a time.

by Generation-X » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:57 am
"It seems just throwing money at the market will make it grow. I have committed about 10% of my assets in an equity position and the gains have been realized very quickly. Anyone can be a stock market genius at times like this, and this is very reminiscent of year 2000 tech bubble, except worse because market is much higher. The market will continue to rise until it can't. The trick will be knowing when to get out, as always."

I recognized this "heat up"-before-the-melt-down market move early last year, which was similar to 2000 dot com crash. But it's not over 'til the fat lady sings. And because the market is much higher now, the corresponding decline to percent decline must also be greater, as we've seen.

For me, this is the time to keep FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in check and enjoy the "heat up" bonus. The real gift, if realized, will be the market meltdown. Because once the dust settles, everything will be on sale. We recently had a local Walmart close a store down - rather than moving inventory, they had 25%, 50% and 75% off sale as the closing date approached. People were just piling stuff into their carts at 50 and 75% off. YEAH.

For individual stocks, I watch the stock price. Because the price of the stock determines the ROR. A meltdown will happily comply and provide the gift that keeps on giving (i.e. even lower price).

I believe the most important priority right now is to accumulate as much cash as possible. What good is 25, 50, 75% off sale if you don't have any cash to buy anything with?

And if market recovers and resumes its move higher, if jumping back in, I plan to keep a short leash.

Yes, a meltdown at this juncture would be the best thing for my planned retirement. There is a research that says the market return within 10 years after retirement will be the key to a sustainable retirement.
Last edited by Generation-X on Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:57 am, edited 5 times in total.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:07 am

Status 2/9/18

Closed the long straddle for a decent profit. An educated guess for a market sell off or a quick market rebound paid off, because straddle needs a huge move and volatility to be profitable.

I am back in cash again and watching the market.

Since we are only at SPX 2600 level, it appears to me that if this is a true recession, it could bring SPX down to 2100 level rather quickly by the end of 2018. And if SPX lost that, next might be SPX 1000 again, perhaps in 3 years by rough estimate.

Market appears to be anticipating credit tightening in the near future and we now face with certainty, a higher federal deficit due to GOP/Trump tax cut and military spending.

The odds of a recession seems pretty high to me but market always has a way of surprising everyone.

I plan to grab some popcorn and watch the fire works until it's time to act.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:31 am

Status 2/14/18

Entered a small short position today based on interest rate's rise and what appeared to be a lackluster bounce from market's oversold condition last week.

If the market is retracing, then it should reverse well before SPX reaches 2800. If market is "recovering", then it will continue to make new highs.

I believe the market is correct so I sided with the market. Let's see what happens in the next few days.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:57 pm

Update 2/21/18

I am looking to close the short position for a small profit tomorrow or Friday. Most likely tomorrow.
Normally, I'd let things run, but BRKB has earnings after market close on Friday, 2/23/18.
This is an interesting dynamics, as market is retracing down while I expect decent earnings report from BRKB due to the tax cut.
I will most likely take long position prior to market close on Friday.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:38 am

Update 2/23/18

Closed the short position at pretty much break even on Thursday.

I had expected the downslide to continue but thanks to intervention by the Fed (Bank of St. Louis president James Bullard's comment early AM) it bounced the market up before BRKB resumed its slide down.

Market volatility reminds me of the dot-com bubble days, when anyone with a dollar bill in their pocket tried daytrading by the lure of easy money. (almost all lost money) (bitcoin anyone?)

And we can clearly see programmed trading influencing the market now with quick, sharp "V" reversals taking place at lightning speeds.

Purchased several long calls throughout the day today.

At the current price, BRKB is somewhat undervalued again and I would love to own the shares back, but because of the overall market condition (i.e. a bubble), I am trying a different approach until the market resets.

The approach will likely be okay until the day market truly falls, but until then it has a high probability of generating profits with a reasonable downside.

I'm only risking profits already made to generate additional profits and it will exceed break-even on the second cycle if everything goes well. (let's just say, it will be challenging)

Looking forward to tomorrow's annual. I don't care about the one-time increase in the book value from the tax cut, it will be offset anyway.

Rather, it's the intrinsic value.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:27 am

Update 2/27/18

Things were moving along great until - you guessed it - the Fed speech.

The position was up around 40% gain at the peak today but ended with around 27% gain due to the market reversal.

I find the market psychology interesting, as, if S&P is returning 10% (historical average) why would fed rate increase to 2.5% - 3% matter that much?

To be fair, it was only a percent drop in the Dow.

I expected a challenge but I also expect gains in BRKB to continue, based on observation and intrinsic value. For the near term, it appears price may linger somewhere between 210 and 220, barring any upset in economic or global politics.

If things continue without any major upset in the market, I think year end target of 240-260 is possible, though it will be fairly tough to get there.

This is fun. In the mean time, I'm getting ready for the big fall. I hope it happens.

I have a feeling Trump will help out big time. (He already did with the tax cut a.k.a. inflation).

"Stupid is as stupid does" - Forrest Gump.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Thu Mar 01, 2018 1:53 am

Update 2/28/18

Closed the long positions in the morning and took in a nice profit, which wasn't bad for a few days' work.

I didn't like the way price was struggling to advance the resistance in the high 210's.

I will be watching the market in the next few days to confirm where it's heading.

A further degradation in SPX will indicate that market will re-test SPX 2600 level.

If that's the case, I will short the market to 2600. If SPX loses 2600 level, then we will be closer to the big fall, where I want to go.

I will also keep my eye on BRKB, but if we're heading toward a bear market, then it is a bear market.

"A rising tide lifts all boats" and ...

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:28 pm

Update 3/1/18

No sooner than a couple days go by posting about Trump and his market killing magical abilities and out of the blue, Trump pulls out yet another rabbit out of a hat, this time with import tariffs.

I am sure many of the newly unemployed voters will show their love for Trump. Time will tell.

I entered a small short position in the morning during Powell's testimony when market edged higher, because I felt no amount of smooth talk from the fed chairman will change the fact that market correction was under way.

Then later on, market moved on Trump's magic. It was music to my ears but I felt the move was rapid and closed the short position for a quick profit at the end of the day.

I will be looking for a bounce tomorrow. If the bounce fails, I will short the market again.

For the intermediate term, I'm keeping my eye on SPX 2600 re-test.

BRKB is back down to 201 level but if market stabilizes for the short term, I suspect it will pop again, as it's looking somewhat undervalued at this point.

Generation-X
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Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:22 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqDq3eyTGck

Cautiously entered a small short position. Will be on the look out for a market bounce today.

wolf
Posts: 648
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Location: Germany

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by wolf » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:03 pm

It sounds like (day)-trading what you do. How much (percentages) of your portfolio have you allocated to such tradings?

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:30 pm

wolf wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:03 pm
It sounds like (day)-trading what you do. How much (percentages) of your portfolio have you allocated to such tradings?
I'm not a day trader.

I am of the opinion that it is in my best interest NOT to hold securities for the near term.

I believe we are at the end of a bull market and the market has a good chance of a high downturn.

In essence, I'm compensating by trading (no pun intended) a good chance of high downturn for a chance of positive return with high risk.

A high volatility environment, usually indicative of a major market trend change, is better suited for trading than investing.

So as you're alluding to, only the minimal amount needed is put to risk. In my case - the previous profits.

The percentages differ depending on various factors but usually much less than 1%.

This is something that I can do right now because of the conditions that are in place.

I have a good reserve of profits made from last year. And I'm not willing to risk a large principle in a volatile environment.

The mindset I'm in, is to save as much cash as possible and keeping them liquid, for future deployment.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/ ... ity-matter

The current state of things has both positives and negatives going for it, but I see turmoil up ahead, both financial and political, adding to the chance of a high downturn.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
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Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:40 pm

Status 3/4/18

* Net worth increased to around 540k.

* I am still in a small short position, as market bounce appeared lackluster. The situation involving Trump is setting the stage for some political and financial consequences.

I believe a military conflict involving North Korea is now in the picture given Trump's instability and as a possible hole card for the inevitable prosecution headed by Mueller.

I will be watching the market next week.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Tue Mar 06, 2018 7:05 am

Status 3/6/18

I expect to see market reversal up ahead, prior to SPX 2760 or so.

Clearly, if market moves past 2800, then we're probably looking at a new market high.

I'm still in my small short position.

If market reverses, I will add to the short position. If SPX breaches 2800 then I will close the short position and go long as I expect SPX to make a new record high.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:19 am

Status 3/8/18

Market has been coiling for the past few days between 2710 and 2730 and for that matter, between SPX 2650 and 2780 in the past month.

It's forming a wedge in the 5 yr weekly, indicative of a break out in either direction.

Current plan is to just sit back, relax and watch what unfolds and let market market make its move.

Will leave the small short position in place as my viewpoint on the market has not changed and in case market moves down suddenly. (it could also move up suddenly)

What's more likely, market will probably take longer to decide and the small position will expire.

In the meantime, will continue to focus on savings and monitor valuations of selected companies.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:56 pm

So the market went up.

SPX is approaching key 2800 level and it will be interesting to see whether it can surpass the level and keep it.

If it does, then we will probably make new highs, possibly to 3100 or so.

Market rose on job report which indicated a steady U3 and no wage growth despite large increase in payroll:

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm

B8: https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab8.htm

Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted Year to Year % change

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1999
2000 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3
2001 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2
2002 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.1
2003 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.7
2004 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5
2005 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.2
2006 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2
2007 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.8
2008 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9
2009 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5
2010 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0
2011 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
2012 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7
2013 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.3
2014 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.9
2015 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.5
2016 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5
2017 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4
2018 2.4 2.5

U3:https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.7
2017 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1

Which caused the market move up as economy appears to be doing well without full employment and market expectation of fast fed rake hike eased.

But things are not that simple, as there are many mixed signals.

10 year treasury was held back but *** when it edged higher, market clearly fluctuated. ***

The Employment Cost Index is edging up after staying dormant for a decade: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ci

Year Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4
2001 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
2002 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3
2003 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9
2004 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7
2005 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.1
2006 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3
2007 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3
2008 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.6
2009 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4
2010 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0
2011 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
2012 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9
2013 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
2014 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2
2015 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0
2016 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2
2017 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6

U6 is also trending up slightly, a possible hint at full employment: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.6
2009 14.2 15.2 15.8 15.9 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.1 17.1
2010 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.1 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.8 16.6 16.9 16.6
2011 16.2 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.8 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.4 15.8 15.5 15.2
2012 15.2 15.0 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.4
2013 14.6 14.4 13.8 14.0 13.8 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.1 13.1
2014 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.2
2015 11.3 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.9
2016 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.1
2017 9.4 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 8.0 8.1
2018 8.2 8.2

ISM Manufacturing Index is at 60.8% in February, indicating increase in economic activity: https://www.instituteforsupplymanagemen ... .cfm?SSO=1

This is good and bad, indicating that there is room for more upside to stocks but it also means economy is heating up.

We'll be getting the dreaded CPI next Tue (3/13) which caused the correction in the first place. Then we get PPI after that on Wed (3/14).


The problem is, it's not what the market expects, but what the fed expects.

There's Powell here in US, who seems wishy-washy but clearly set on raising rates. (Personally, I think we're looking at 5 rate hikes or more this year.)

We'll find out in little over a week or so: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary ... .htm#14659

And if Jens Weidmann heads ECB...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/20/a-germa ... t-ecb.html

Then there's Trump. The Trump deficit (tax cut), Trump tariff and in the works Trump-Russian scandal amongst other Trump scandals of more personal nature. And we can add Trump-NK here as a possible fallback.


My possible paths are as follows:

The riskiest path but also with a higher *expected* gain is to go long in the market knowing that it could unravel at any time. Most are parroting that bull market will be good until the end of 2019. If true, I think it will be choppy. (See Dow between 1999-2002 prior to the big crash)

A sure winner, but not much gain is to play the rising rate in the form of a cd ladder in 3,6,9,12 mo. increments. 6 month CD is like 1.8% now (3.6% per yr), and if I just wait a week, chances are, cd rates will be higher. Not really exciting, it's chump change but it is FDIC insured and it's cash.
By combining CD ladder with existing, I can average around 4-5%.
* Correction - 6 mo. CD is 1.8% APY. But still good with 4% or higher averaged with existing *

** 6 month T-Bill is yielding a bit higher than CD's currently.

UNITED STATES TREAS BILLS ZERO CPN 0.000
-- 09/13/2018 -- -- -- 1.870 Yes -- 03/15/2018 CP SFP -- 6 Mo.

Therefore, my plan is to do both.

With profit reserve from last year, I will take the market risk. With bulk of my net worth, I will take the CD ladder at 4% for even money.

The goal will be to preserve and save. In the mean time, I will be monitoring the companies to buy on the down turn.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:13 am

Status 3/16/18

Been really busy at work and haven't been able to pay much attention to the market lately.

I've been keeping an eye on the small short position, which will expire by the end of the month. Market is still undecided at this time but given current conditions, I expect more than a fair chance that market will retest February lows.

And Trump, who is exhibiting signs of emotional instability and megalomaniac tendancies, has been very helpful in killing the market.

He seems to think that he owns America and he can do whatever he pleases but that will be a grave mistake on his part. I believe his continued antics will increase the chances of market downturn.

On a brighter note, had a chance to participate in the national school walkout and observe the upcoming generation en mass.

What really struck me was that these kids were genuine, truly cared and showed signs of maturity. They are a much better bunch than the Millennials and I have high hopes for this upcoming generation.

It really made my day.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:35 pm

Three charts

Image

Inflation (2000 - 3/2018)



Image

Real Wages ( Purchasing Power) (2000 - 2017)



Image

Real return on $1000 invested at year 2000 highs (2000 - 2014)


Lessons learned:

1. Expect to pay a lot for:

Medical Care
Housing
Food
Transportation / Energy

2. You will NOT be able to save real money by working because salary rise is offset by inflation

3. NEVER invest near market highs as it will take a long time to break even, especially when factoring in inflation.

Generation-X
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:56 am

Return on $1000 invested at the ***market peak*** of "Dot-com bubble" in March 2000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

* Nominal compounded annual return after 18 years: 5.09%
* Real (inflation adjusted) compounded annual return after 18 years: 2.91%

Image

This is a chart of $1000 invested on SPY (S&P500 ETF) at the peak of the market bubble in 2000, and its performance to 2018.

Some key things to note:

* It took about 6.5 years to get the $1000 back, but because of time-value of money, the $1000 after 6.5 years was maybe only worth $900, a loss.
* Factoring in time-value of money, it took about 13 years to break-even in real terms, after adjusting for inflation.
* It would have returned about 5% compounded annual return to 2018, which does not factor in time-value of money.

This is a very ***scary*** fact, considering that 5% was the best it could do during the largest monetary expansion in the history of the United States IN CONJUNCTION with zero interest rate policy for almost a decade, ***where most of its growth took place***.

When factoring in time-value of money, the 5% return drops to 2.91%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/13/12-tril ... -this.html

Today, the market is here:

Image

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