Generation-X' Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
thedollar
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by thedollar » Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:47 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:39 am
thedollar wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:26 am
If you check his post he states most of his net worth is in cash.
Ah, thanks.

How do you get a 4% yield on cash Generation-X?

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:47 am

thedollar wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:47 pm
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:39 am
thedollar wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:26 am
If you check his post he states most of his net worth is in cash.
Ah, thanks.

How do you get a 4% yield on cash Generation-X?
It's an average yield between existing fixed instrument and the new short term cd/treasury.

Savings accounts used to pay higher yield back in the days, and between 5% - 7% was the norm.

Then the yield dropped to 3% - 5% and so forth, to the level where we are today.

Image

Notice as the national debt climbed, the interest rate fell. (Because we pay the interest on the debt.)

Our current national debt stands at around 21 trillion dollars, approximately 108% of our GDP.

The national debt is projected to reach around 30 - 50 trillion dollars in the next 10 years.

We are experiencing the mother of all bubbles, where all central banks are printing like there is no tomorrow.

But when the music stops...


Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:20 pm

Recent thoughts on investing for a beginner in a forum discussion -

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

Post by Generation-X » Tue, 14 Aug 2018, 0:38

Time is your greatest asset.

Have an investment horizon that is greater than 20 years, preferably 30 years. Let compounding do its thing, and the only thing left to do after that, is to wait patiently.

Patience is the key. Being consistent is the key.

The most important ingredient in investing, as with other similar challenges in life, such as weight loss, or to quit smoking, etc., is being consistent.

Here's an advice from a person who has supposedly done it, (msk from bogleheads forum*):
* I don't know msk other than few of his posts I've read on the forum

"Re: First time investor looking to jump in market but apprehensive with record highs

Post by msk » Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:15 am

I lived by these rules-of-thumb since my student days, retired early at 55, now at 73. Your life trajectory will be different, but these rules did well by me, currently at 8 figures NW:

1. Save and invest 30% of after tax income. Payment of principal on a home mortgage counts, but not interest.
2. Never buy a house worth more than 3x annual income, or 2.5x joint income. You may afford the monthly payments but expensive homes carry expensive maintenance commitments, be it landscaping or air conditioning.
3. Never acquire a car (or cars if multiple), by purchase or lease, worth more than 6 months income.

The most important one is 1. If you practise that diligently you never have to think of when you are jumping in, timing, since your investments in subsequent years will be much larger than your initial buy into the stock market. The stock market is almost always at its highest, so trying to time it is a toss up, with you as the probable loser. If the stock market makes you terribly nervous, perhaps you can repay some of that large mortgage. It'll 'earn' you an interest rate higher than bonds, and unless you have been very unlucky in choosing your home, its value ought to keep up with inflation, perhaps even rise beyond that, possibly even well beyond inflation in a HCOL area. IMHO there is no such thing as a forever home in your 30s. If you satisfy 1. above you will almost certainly be much wealthier in your late 40s than you are now, and probably will wish to upgrade... Anyway, I have always considered paying off the mortgage on my home as a high priority, if only for the feeling of security. Keeping a lot of cash aside for possible renovations, etc. is IMHO a waste of investment time. Fund the renovations from next year's 30% savings, or the following years'..."

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=232788

Here's another:

"Re: Finding a direction - What next?

Post by msk » Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:14 am
Too much paralysis by analysis. Just open a brokerage account (Interactive Brokers is my current favorite), fill out all your tax advantaged opportunities, use your surplus savings to purchase VT (Vanguard Total World) and then spend more time analysing and contemplating what next, how to fine tune, 3 ETFs, etc. Pity, you just missed a ludicrously good, irrationally exuberant stock market year (up 20+%!) while awaiting revelation. Revelation ain't coming. Save and invest 30% of after tax income, year in, year out. What you do with the rest does not matter much. I just worked out what you can look forward to, if the next 50 years is similar to the past 50, totally invested in the SP 500 from age 30 and a $50k income:

Mediocre careers with your incomes just keeping up with inflation: you can retire at age 57 with a Net Worth of $2.5 million
Average careers with your incomes rising at 1% p.a. above inflation: you can retire at age 60 with a Net Worth of $3.8 million
Good careers with incomes rising at 2% p.a. above inflation: you can retire at age 64 with a Net Worth of $6.7 million

I define free-to-retire-age at a point when your Net Worth = 25xIncomex0.7 (since you no longer have to save and invest that 30%). It comes later with better careers since your income rises much higher, but in all cases you do not need to drop your standard of living an iota upon retirement. Save and invest 30% of after tax income, today onwards. That's what matters, the rest are just details that you can analyse ad nauseam over the next 3 decades :annoyed"

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0#p3633022

Essentially what he is saying is, dollar cost average and let it compound over time and let it do its thing forever (over 50 years in his case). Don't put all your eggs in one basket - i.e. he doesn't say to dump your entire life savings into the market all at once. Start small, put the first 30% of after tax savings first year. Then the next 30% of after tax savings the second year. Then the next in the third year... etc.

Even if the market were to drop 50% in the first or the second year of your investment journey, this will limit your exposure. And when the market does it again the next time in say, 5-7 years time, well, by then the gains in the investment maybe enough to offset the next 50% drop. Do this for the next 50 years and you may end up with 8 figure net worth, is essentially his argument and supposedly what he has done. In the mean time, you can live your life with remaining 70% of after tax income. And he rightly points out, as your career advances, your income should move higher.

Good luck.

P.S.> Here is an article on one CFA's analysis of Warren Buffett's prediction about Dow 1 million:

Predicting Dow One Million – Was Warren Buffett Being Bold or Overly Cautious?
https://www.financialsense.com/daniel-a ... y-cautious

Mister Imperceptible should take notes. 8)

*****

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

Post by Generation-X » Mon, 03 Sep 2018, 1:10

Did you know that the stock market rises about 70% of the time? That means 30% of the time, the market is falling.

If one took snap shots of the market at any random point in history, 7 out of 10 times it was rising and 3 out of 10 times it was falling.

No one will find such a positively biased game at any casino in the world. So why not time the market?

The problem is that no one know the future. It is not possible to consistently predict and avoid the 30% of the time when the stock market falls.

It is also not possible to consistently predict the market's best days. Dow returned 6.6% from 1997 to 2011 in 3768 trading days.

But had you missed 40 best trading days during that time, the Dow would have returned -5.8%.**

** Putname Investments, "Don't Miss the Market's Best Days," Investor Education 2011

S&P returned 9.9% in 15 years from 12/31/02 to 12/31/17. But had you missed the 40 best trading days during the 15 years, the S&P would have returend -2.62%.***

*** https://www.putnam.com/literature/pdf/II508.pdf

This is why people like MSK's experience makes a lot of sense:

"Save and invest 30% of after tax income, year in, year out. What you do with the rest does not matter much."

* 30% after tax income limits risk - "Don't put all your eggs in one basket". Keep the 70% each year and risk only what you can afford to lose.

* 30% PER YEAR follows the dollar cost averaging strategy - this strategy only works if the medium of storage moves up on the average. Using history as a guide, this is what the stock market does, rising 7 out of 10 times.

* "The market", whether it's the DOW, S&P 500, Wilshire 5000 or Total world stock index, all offer diversification to not "put all your eggs in one" stock.

The key is being consistent and having patience with a long term horizon.

Being consistent year in and year out is like saving - even a drop in the bucket, given enough time, will fill the bucket.

Having patience with a long term horizon allows for an uninterrupted compounding without missing those 40 best trading days.

Bottom line, if the market dynamics were to somehow change for the worst moving forward, the worst it can be is loss of 30% after tax income per year. Still get to keep 70%.

If there is money left over in the 70% after living expenses, then one can still dabble in individual stocks, real estate, vintage cars, slot machines, etc. -- again, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

There is no risk-free investment. MSK's play book, in essence, is about managing risk because the act of investing is risky.

It limits how much is risked (30% of after tax income per year), it invests in a storage medium with a very low expense of ownership (cost of ownership in index is very low- i.e. VOO .04% per year), it takes a calculated risk on a historically positively biased storage medium (the stock market), it takes advantage of bargains when prices are lower (dollar cost averaging), it takes advantage of compounding (long term horizon) and it uses a storage medium that does not demand too much time from its risk takers.
Top

*****

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon, 03 Sep 2018, 7:59
@Gen-X

That Putnam link assumes you are missing the best days and yet still absorbing the worst days? Seems like dishonest cherry-picking on their part.

*****

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

Post by Generation-X » Mon, 03 Sep 2018, 15:14

What both MSK and Putnam are advocating is to avoid market timing and to stay invested with a long term horizon - as market timing may result in missing the market's best days, which aren't many. And the market's best days, which can be as few as 40 days, can make or break the investment return.

In the case of the Dow, what are the chances of catching just one of the best 40 days out of 3768 trading days by market timing? It's about 1% (40/3768). That meant one would have missed 99 times out of 100, trying to catch just one of those 40 best days by market timing in that period.

The act of investing is a risk. The longer one stays in the market, the higher the risk. There is no guarantee of an investment return.

Therefore, one limits the risk by risking only the amount that one can afford to lose. What worked for MSK was 30% of his after tax income. He still kept 70% of his after tax income.

He further reduced risk by choosing an investing medium (stock market) that is historically in his favor, one that goes up 7 times out 10 at any point in history.

By choosing index as a way of participating in the stock market, he further reduced risk by spreading his eggs into multiple baskets (companies, i.e. stocks), rather than a single basket (company).

He further limited risk of lower return by choosing index to control what it costs to participate in the market to absolute minimum. Cost of commissions of owning 30 (Dow) or 500 (S&P) or let alone 5000 (Wilshire) individual stocks can become very expensive, especially when keeping the cost of buying or selling stocks (commissions) to less than 1% - at a typical $5 commission to buy stocks, one would need to buy $500 worth of stocks in a single company to keep the commission to 1%. But since one must also sell, to keep the $10 in commission to both buy and sell a stock to 1%, one would then be required to buy $1000 worth of stocks in a single company. Multiply this by 30 companies (Dow) would mean $30,000, by 500 companies (S&P) would mean $500,000 and by 5000 companies (Wilshire) would mean $5,000,000 of stock purchases to keep the commission at 1%. In contrast, VOO's commission is 0.04% per year. Using median income of 59K at 15% tax rate and taking 30% of after tax income and investing with an assumption of 10% market return each year, the break even point between purchasing individual stocks at $10 commission round trip vs. index at 0.04% expense ratio is as follows: Dow 30 ($300)- about 8.5 years. S&P 500 ($5000)- about 25.5 years. Wilshire 5000 ($50,000)- about 46.5 years.

While limiting risk, he added leverage by dollar cost averaging (buying year in year out, consistently, which buys more stocks during the market dips when stocks are cheaper) and compounding (long term horizon of preferably > 30 years).

So MSK's play book is a limited risk, leveraged gain attempt at investing that does not take too much time and is pretty much on auto pilot.

It relies on historical observation that on the average, the market moves up more than it moves down, and given long enough time (>30 years), generally comes out ahead.

What it does require is a long exposure to market risk (> 30 years) and consistency (30% after tax income contributed year in year out).

Clearly, the 30% can be adjusted per risk tolerance as to what one is willing to lose per year - i.e. 10%, 15%, 20% etc. with an understanding that less leverage equals less return when the market performs.

The beautiful thing about MSK's approach is that while this is left on auto-pilot, one can pursue to their heart's content and chase individual stocks, real estate, vintage cars, slot machines, etc. with the remaining 70% of income, on what's left after living expenses.

To quote MSK: "Save and invest 30% of after tax income, today onwards. That's what matters, the rest are just details that you can analyse ad nauseam over the next 3 decades "

*****

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

Post by Generation-X » Mon, 03 Sep 2018, 15:59

No one can predict the future and that's why we take the risk. If everyone knew which were the best 40 days or the worst 40 days of the market in the next 15 years, then everyone would be rich.

I can give you better odds by limiting it to the next 2 years. Let me know which 40 days in the next 504 trading days would be the best days and worst days I will be sure to invest my entire half million dollars net worth for a guaranteed profit.

*****

Re: Noob Investor Asks Noob Questions for the 10,000th time

MSK's play book is an illustration of an investing approach that limits risk and adds leverage while not time consuming and easy to manage for the OP to consider.

It points out the constraints, the risks and why. I believe the OP is looking at an individual stock selection, which is much harder and not necessarily with better results in terms of market return. Predicting the future can not be reliably done, even from strangers online :)

And the nice thing about it is that OP can implement both approaches at the same time, because it is inherently risk limiting (30%). This would again, be spreading risk by not putting all your eggs in one basket (or method of investing).

Thanks for proving the point.

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:35 pm

Status update - 9/3/18

Image

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:26 am

THOUGHT OF THE DAY:


Image

Image

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:08 am

SEP 10 Update

Current holdings

CL (call option) - since 62
BRKB (call option) - since 207.5
SAM (call option) - since 280

Current watchlist

ACH
IRDM
KGC
TSLA

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:30 am

Retirement sanity check

Going through the spreadsheet, I noticed the timer letting me know there is now less than 1.9 years left to the earliest retirment target date.

It was 5 years ago that I first started this journal with 200k in net worth, which I've managed to triple since.

It has been an amazing experience thus far and I feel very fortunate to have been able to partake on this journey.

I felt this would be a good time to step back for an overall perspective looking forward and make some assessments.



Basic Necessities

Current Monthly expense cumulative - $2,300/mo.

I've been on a self imposed $2,300/mo. living for about 2 years now. The goal was to simulate the retirement conditions and to see if I would make it.

The conclusion is that it's a tight fit. The real culprit has been the recent surge in housing which takes nearly 50% of the income pie.

Transportation, food and insurance take up the remainder and leave about $100 in discretionary spending.

The cost of housing will be the first in sustainability challenge in retiring with the current budget.



Retirement Monthly fixed income - $2,600/mo.

Monthly fixed income at the earliest retirement target date will have some headroom at first but using 5% average inflation, it will only last 4 years.

Some solutions for the housing being considered:

1. Purchase a house - a fixed mortgage would arrest inflation at the expense of perpetual cost in maintenance, insurance and property tax. Deductions will offset some of the cost but not all.

2. Move to a cheaper area out of town and rent - proximity to family, health care and shopping would be of consideration. Inflation will eventually catch up.

3. Adopt a nomad's life within US - one time sunk cost for a recreatoinal vehicle, perpetual cost in gas, maintenance, insurance and parking. Will it grow old eventually?

4. Other ideas?



Healthcare - covered until medicare at 65. This is the one bright spot, but given the size of the national debt, a potential pitfall would be a sharp rise in the cost of medicare in the future.



A counter to 5% average annual inflation in cost of living and rise in cost of medicare will be the social security income expected at age 62.

85% of social security income will be taxable, with an estimated payment of about $1000/mo.

This means I must maintain 15 years on $2,600/mo. income. Since purchasing power is reduced by 50% every 15-20 years, this would result in deficit of $1,300 by the end of the 15 years.

When social security kicks in, this would mostly restore the purchasing power, until the next 15 years which would end up in deficit of about $2000/mo. This would be 30 years after retirement.



Monthly deficit at the end of first 15 years - $1300/mo. -- Using annual 5% step rise calculation for 15 years = $110,430 deficit for the first 15 years

Monthly deficit at the end of second 15 years - $2000/mo. -- Using annual 5% step rise calculation for 15 years = $169,796 deficit for the second 15 years

Shortfall due to 5% average inflation for 30 years - $280,226 (after tax money)



I expect to retire with about $500,000 in mostly pre-tax savings. Setting aside estimated 25% tax would mean $375,000 in after-tax equivalent. Subtracting $280,000 for inflation leaves $95,000 for medicare and everything else.

Like I said, pretty tight. There is no room for a Porsche here.

Given the current environment, it comes down to reducing the cost of living (housing) to make room for a Porsche or working longer before retiring. (And perhaps a part time gig at Amazon after retirement.)

A housing crash would be a big help here, as well as the stock market. I can sense the crticial nature of the upcoming crash and the role that it will play in shaping the outcome of my retirement.

Therefore, the current thought is to continue working, save and play the market absorbed in euphoria until the crash comes. Many are expecting market crash by 2020. If it's extended beyond 2020, that is just as well, as I will have larger savings and higher retirement income to ease the inflation pain.

I have been slowly setting the stage for what's to come. I expect to be fully engaged moving forward, starting with the expected fed interest rate announcement. I will be out of most of the positions by then.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 557
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:36 pm

I’ve been living in an RV for 5 weeks now, not unpleasant, and I am sure it would be easier in California than in the Northeast. I’m probably looking at renting a room come winter time.

It’s amazing how complacent the market is, if they raise rates and promise another hike in December we should see some fun volatility, no?

wolf
Posts: 720
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by wolf » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:17 pm

That's a great analysis of your financial fitness for retirement. I am reading this with great interest. If I calculate correctly you will retire around 47 years. Something like that is also my estimated year of 'retirement' if everything goes as planned.

How are you prepared for your future retirement lifestyle? Do you continue living like nowadays? Only with more leisure time? You have any bigger plans, like traveling the world or something similiar?

If you don't mind it would be great to read something about your non-financial plans.

Thanks for sharing your ideas Generation-X, as you are a fews years ahead of me.

And congrats to increasing your networth by 300% within 5 years. Wow, well done! Could you say how much the share was due to your saving rate and investment gains?

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:20 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:36 pm
I’ve been living in an RV for 5 weeks now, not unpleasant, and I am sure it would be easier in California than in the Northeast. I’m probably looking at renting a room come winter time.

It’s amazing how complacent the market is, if they raise rates and promise another hike in December we should see some fun volatility, no?
I'd love to hear your story. How did this come about? Is it a movable kind? What were some challenges getting started and what do you like/dislike about this arrangement?

We're not seeing the same market that we saw back in January, but we're getting there. The rates are already factored in, and Powell's fed appears to be aiming for a soft landing. If there is a surprise in the rate hike then I would expect a decent market response.

As market nears the tipping point, I expect we'll see some incredible gains, similar to January, extending for months.

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:10 pm

wolf wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:17 pm
That's a great analysis of your financial fitness for retirement. I am reading this with great interest. If I calculate correctly you will retire around 47 years. Something like that is also my estimated year of 'retirement' if everything goes as planned.

How are you prepared for your future retirement lifestyle? Do you continue living like nowadays? Only with more leisure time? You have any bigger plans, like traveling the world or something similar?

If you don't mind it would be great to read something about your non-financial plans.

Thanks for sharing your ideas Generation-X, as you are a fews years ahead of me.

And congrats to increasing your networth by 300% within 5 years. Wow, well done! Could you say how much the share was due to your saving rate and investment gains?
Thanks for asking and those are great questions. I do have plans for after retirement, and traveling will definitely be a part of it - which I'm looking very much forward to. I'm also grateful to our society for providing me with ample opportunities - for anything. I plan to give back in my own way, using my time and abilities as allowed. As Lord Robert Baden-Powell said:

"...the real way to get happiness is by giving out happiness to other people. Try and leave this world a little better than you found it and when your turn comes to die, you can die happy in feeling that at any rate you have not wasted your time but have done your best. ‘Be Prepared’ in this way, to live happy and to die happy – stick to your Scout promise always – even after you have ceased to be a boy – and God help you to do it."

Ehh, we'll see. lol. Still a lot of work to be done before that can happen.

As for savings rate vs. investment gain, it would be about 40/60. About half of the net worth earns a guaranteed 6% in pension and this is under active management. The agreement is that whatever the annual return maybe, I get 6%. So during good years I lose out and vice versa.

This is in place for the time value of money on my pension contributions which equates to about 1% to 2% market return per year after inflation. I will have an option to cash out with earned interest, or to take the pension upon retirement.

The remaining 10% was from my own investment / trading activities. 40% was from saving.

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:07 am

In the face of isolationism and the future of a protected US economy and inflation


One of the things that kept America as an effective super power was its so called "soft power", a phrase that general Mattis has popularized again recently.

The idea was that America, through its culture, values and ideals, drew attention and appeal of others which persuaded them to join and cooperate with the United States on the world stage.

However, recent political antics by Trump to hold on to his power and to leverage those minority population that blindly trust his agenda out of their own economic despair, has allowed significant damage to the world appeal of the United States and its perception and credibility in the eyes of the world.

Not only have China and Russia (former enemies to one another) cooperatively aligned their military against the United States, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Yemen, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela all have hardened their stance. North Korea continues to develop its nuclear capability to target the US. Mexico may turn into another Venezuela.

Traditional allies are alienating the United States economically, perhaps most significant, leaving the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that included Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam - a first in such economic isolation for the US in recent history.

Soon after, EU and Japan joined the Economic Partnership Agreement, covering a third of global gdp, without the United States. The problems continue with Canada and Mexico and NAFTA.


What's NOT being touted on the Fox news is that exports from EU to Asia was bigger than to US in 2017. Likewise, exports from Asia to EU was slightly lower than US and growing.

Not only is the size of private consumer expenditure in Asia as big as the United States, they are growing twice as fast. China is expected to become the world's largest market for imports, surpassing US in 2021.

As the rest of the world, without the United States, forge closer economic ties and free trade, the global supply chain will bind EU and Asia closer to benefit their consumers but not ours.

One only needs to see the Ambassador, India's first self produced car with little change since its debut in 1957, to realize what prolonged protectionism will do to the economy.


As the US is displaced economically from the rest of the world, the world will gradually shift away from the dollar, for there will be less need for it to trade.

The central banks of the world will reduce their dollar holdings, which will contribute to a much higher inflation here in the United States as the dollars find their way back home.

Yield rates will rise to reflect higher borrowing costs of having to purchase another reserve currency to trade. As yields move higher, the interest payment on soon to be 30-50 trillion dollar national debt will rise, taking funds away from both the entitlement programs and essential services.

We will experience a decline in the quality of domestic products and services without competition, rise in the cost of imports as well as domestic goods due to the influx of dollars from abroad and cuts to both the entitlement and essential programs such as social security, medicare, education, police, fire, roads and infrastructure etc. to service the rising national debt. This will be in addition to the economic burden of purchasing more weapons to defend the nation from united enemies abroad.



In sum, most of the people in the United States will experience a drastic change in their standard of living for the worst, except for the extremely wealthy, who will not only be able to buy their way out of the distress, but also command the population and the economy with their spending.

It may have the potential for another Great Depression, except with more people and more guns.

A food for thought.

wolf
Posts: 720
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:09 pm
Location: Germany

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by wolf » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:44 am

It is indeed some "food for thought". Thanks Generation-X, for sharing this.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 557
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:38 pm

I bought the RV for $10k, a 1989 Winnebago. I went to a lot of dealerships over a few months, it was hard to find something in my budget (and a 2002 Coachman got bought out from underneath me because the saleswoman failed to do an administrative task) but maybe you can find some good deals now that summer is over? It’s capable of towing my Civic but I haven’t done that just yet. I haven’t done any traveling in it, I just have it parked behind Cracker Barrel for free and they’ve been cool with it. I have an in-unit shower but I’ve been showering at the YMCA instead. Has a generator but I haven’t used it much, I want to consume as little energy as possible. It’s by no mean glamorous but I have a mattress and that’s better than sleeping on the ground. Actually it looks like the Winnebago that Walter White cooked meth in. I made the self-deprecating joke that I used the CB radio to contact the ghosts of the women murdered in it by the previous owner.

*****

Regarding your recent post....perhaps it would be healthy for America to have a recession/depression and redevelop its own ability to manufacture, produce, and create. I don’t think America is a racist hateful country under Trump, anymore than it was a blissful peaceful place where everyone sang Kumbaya under Obama.

The dollar is going where it is going because of decades of financialization and debt accumulation, and the outsourcing of the real industry and economy. All of that benefited the very few and exacerbated wealth inequality.

Yes we are going to have a downward adjustment in standard of living....but everyone has been living beyond their means anyway. The standard of living in the US has been supported by debt.

I would of course say it is only possible that we have Trump as president, because of those problems previously existed. We don’t have those problems, merely because Trump is president. And I’m not a Trump voter. I just think our culture is pretty rotten, but it’s a lot easier to blame Trump for all of our problems, rather than ask all Americans to look in the mirror.

In light of your analysis of the dollar (and especially because you have so many dollars), perhaps you should buy some physical gold bullion, which is near a 2-year-low. In view of your social analysis, maybe you should get yourself a firearm for self-defense. I’ve done both. Protect yourself. Make yourself a little less dependent on the system.

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:28 am

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:38 pm
I bought the RV for $10k, a 1989 Winnebago. I went to a lot of dealerships over a few months, it was hard to find something in my budget (and a 2002 Coachman got bought out from underneath me because the saleswoman failed to do an administrative task) but maybe you can find some good deals now that summer is over? It’s capable of towing my Civic but I haven’t done that just yet. I haven’t done any traveling in it, I just have it parked behind Cracker Barrel for free and they’ve been cool with it. I have an in-unit shower but I’ve been showering at the YMCA instead. Has a generator but I haven’t used it much, I want to consume as little energy as possible. It’s by no mean glamorous but I have a mattress and that’s better than sleeping on the ground. Actually it looks like the Winnebago that Walter White cooked meth in. I made the self-deprecating joke that I used the CB radio to contact the ghosts of the women murdered in it by the previous owner.
I like your solution for not paying rent. I've been researching a Prius for the exact same purpose.

Unfortunately an RV is not a well tolerated sight in most California cities. I would much prefer to RV as it would be more ideal for this purpose.

Glad you are able to do this. I intend to follow suit in the near future.


Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:38 pm
Regarding your recent post....perhaps it would be healthy for America to have a recession/depression and redevelop its own ability to manufacture, produce, and create. I don’t think America is a racist hateful country under Trump, anymore than it was a blissful peaceful place where everyone sang Kumbaya under Obama.

The dollar is going where it is going because of decades of financialization and debt accumulation, and the outsourcing of the real industry and economy. All of that benefited the very few and exacerbated wealth inequality.

Yes we are going to have a downward adjustment in standard of living....but everyone has been living beyond their means anyway. The standard of living in the US has been supported by debt.

I would of course say it is only possible that we have Trump as president, because of those problems previously existed. We don’t have those problems, merely because Trump is president. And I’m not a Trump voter. I just think our culture is pretty rotten, but it’s a lot easier to blame Trump for all of our problems, rather than ask all Americans to look in the mirror.

In light of your analysis of the dollar (and especially because you have so many dollars), perhaps you should buy some physical gold bullion, which is near a 2-year-low. In view of your social analysis, maybe you should get yourself a firearm for self-defense. I’ve done both. Protect yourself. Make yourself a little less dependent on the system.


Current administration's actions and policies have consequences. Maybe not so much in the first 4 years, but what about in 8 years? If same policies were to continue for 12 years? For 16 years?

It is a mental exercise to gauge the ballpark where we are going to be moving forward.

Fortunately, I am able to remember and draw from years of observations on people that have lived under Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush 2.0, Obama administrations and the influence of policies that were placed on them to help with the analysis.

Recognizing the dire importance of having an exceptional and capable leader who is honorable and with integrity is something we learned by watching our parents suffer through long gas lines, 18% mortgage payments, Ma Bell extortions and Voodoo economics.

I've lived in times without cell phones or playstation, nor a personal computer. Kids walked to school by themselves and we went places riding in a back of a pick up truck. If we did something bad, then we got punished with bruises on the rear end to prove it and we would remember why it was there. Then we were expected to make things right, whatever and however long it took.

The older I get, the difference between right and wrong becomes clearer and clearer.

Trump? I have my opinions, but they are likely to be more kind than what the historians will say and record for posterity. I've seen enough and it would take a lot more than someone like Trump to put one over me.

I remember when gold was $200 +/- an ounce. If such times are what we are to face, then I would form a community of friends and neighbors first, if not already.

Generation-X
Posts: 157
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:01 am

Price increases


I've begun noticing price increases at places like Walmart, Costco and Harbor Freight.

From experience, once prices move up, they never come down. As such, stocking up on few essential items and hunkering down.

The plan is to accelerate the transition to mobile living as soon as possible, probably come spring.

Am cutting expenses further and not spending unless absolutely necessary.

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