Generation-X' Journal

Where are you and where are you going?
Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:39 am

I guess what I like about gold is that there is no central authority. I think the reason for holding it is, I doubt that I can see the catastrophe coming. The smart money will be gone from the dollar long before lowly Mister Imperceptible. I have no natural affinity for a hunk of yellow metal that does not respond to fondling it, anymore than I do for a Lamborghini. I just think the yellow metal will retain its value better than the sports car. And currently I don’t have the time or land or resources or wherewithal to manage livestock, wise though that is. And you can only stack so many cans of Campbell soup in a basement.

You are right- the Fed does NOT want the dollar to lose its reserve status. It may even be possible that they are manipulating the gold price downward as long as they can, to give the illusion of stability.

But I agree the real wealth is here....we just refuse to let firms go bankrupt. It’s capitalism for the poor, and socialism for the rich. Artificially low interest rates and QE distorting the market valuations doesn’t mean the underlining businesses are all bad, but it does mean it is harder to differentiate the good firms from the zombie firms being kept alive by loose monetary policy. I think we have too many resources, both human and natural, to experience a full-scale Japanification, but who knows. The longer the distortion goes, the worse the following crash should be.

This is a retirement website and I just don’t want to think the only solution to the green paper being lossy is that you have to continue working. I thought the point was to figure out how we are being scammed, in order to beat the system. Generation-X deserves better.

*****

A colleague just handed me a book he had promised to loan me, and it turned out to be the fifth edition of McMillan. Thanks again for the tip.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:36 pm

Update 4/2/18

This will be a key test for SPX this week, as if it loses the 2600 level, then we are probably looking at a much bigger correction.

I will take a risk here and will continue to hold my short position. There are several reasons:

1. Trump. (enough said) - Tariff, Amazon (Tech/FAANG), Syria, Mueller Investigation
2. Fed / ECB - planned monetary contraction
3. Dept. of the Treasury - bond selling will continue to pressure interest rates
4. I think buyers are waking up to volatility now - this is about the 3rd time people got burned trying to "enter when it's cheap".

GLD is in a intermediate up trend and is coiling currently for a price move. If the market loses this key level, GLD will break out.

I may take a small position in GLD, but not options. GLD is too volatile for that.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:27 am

Update 4/3/18

Added to the short position at the end of the day.

To short as Dow was rallying to 400 points was a bit unnerving but on the flip side, the price was relatively cheaper. (Relative, as market is volatile therefore higher premium)

This is now entering somewhat of a gambling territory as if SPX loses the current level, the pay-off will be significant.

If market downfall is to be believed then gold is looking good here as well, but the problem with gold is that the outlook must be long term due to its high price volatility.

This means either owning the shares outright, or LEAPS at around 20 - 25% of the cost of owning shares directly. It's pretty much all or nothing bet and given the high premiums currently, I will have to look at the situation further.

Also in the news was that Russia and China have moved toward a more cooperative military ties against the US. This is probably more symbolic as two nations have been historically hostile to one another.

But the recent resurgence of dictatorships throughout the world, especially in Russia and China, both confronting the US, clearly signals a dangerous turn of events.

The world sees weakness in US. And Russia and China know this.

Aided by Trump's lack of leadership and inexperience, along with his clear fascist*** protectionism agenda which is actually hurting the United States in the world stage with other nations, the two countries are seizing this opportunity to change the world order.

The true strength of the United States has always been its ties with the rest of the world. It was the faith and credit the world had, that US would do the right thing in good times or bad, that has kept US as the moral and political leader of many nations.

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently." - some wise old man.

I'm shorting the market. As disheartening as it is, this is the truth.



***Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism,[1][2] characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition and control of industry and commerce,[3] which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.[4] The first fascist movements emerged in Italy during World War I before it spread to other European countries.[4] Opposed to liberalism, Marxism and anarchism, fascism is usually placed on the far-right within the traditional left–right spectrum.[5][6][7][4][8][9]
...
Fascists believe that liberal democracy is obsolete and they regard the complete mobilization of society under a totalitarian one-party state as necessary to prepare a nation for armed conflict and to respond effectively to economic difficulties.[12] Such a state is led by a strong leader—such as a dictator and a martial government composed of the members of the governing fascist party—to forge national unity and maintain a stable and orderly society.[12] Fascism rejects assertions that violence is automatically negative in nature and views political violence, war and imperialism as means that can achieve national rejuvenation.[13][14][15][16] Fascists advocate a mixed economy, with the principal goal of achieving autarky through protectionist and interventionist economic policies.[17]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:31 pm

Update 4/4/18

What a day! The sharp market downturn early in the AM was a pleasant surprise.

Ended up selling both positions on the bounce and left about 1/3 of the profit on the table.

Didn't expect market to recover so quickly (PPT hard at work), and it appears we are headed to test SPX 2650 first, then 2750.

The pace of price volatility is getting faster and faster now and no doubt, it's unnerving many investors.

Will be watching for re-entry.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:14 am

Update 4/6/18

Will be watching the market and plan to add a small position at the end of the day for the weekend.

Chances are I will add a small long straddle, depending on the what unfolds.

Response from China next week may be unexpected, at which point the market will rally.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:59 pm

Update 4/6/18

Entered a small long straddle.

If the tariff war continues to escalate, Trump's political life will be on the line.

Market is clearly oversold at this point, but this continuing uncertainty may just be enough to push the market over the edge.

We are back to SPX 2600 key level.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:05 pm

The yield curve, past 30 years ( 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2018 )

Image


Image

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTD ... categories

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:50 pm

Even more gloom and doom chart porn.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:32 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:50 pm
Even more gloom and doom chart porn.
If that's what you see. :D

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:44 pm

This McMillan fellow is dense reading. Curious, when I come out the other side, will there be attractively priced options to buy?

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:34 pm

Financial Update 4/18

Image

Going on 3rd year toward retirement, the progress is on track. I've also started making contributions into 401a as an addition to current savings effort.

Fortunately, recent market fluctuations had no effect on the net worth. This was planned, as I had purposely de-coupled market returns from retirement planning. I can not control market returns. What I can control are:

1. what I spend
2. the amount that I save
3. taxes that I pay

Looking at the chart, a thought that crosses my mind often is the amount that I must pay for the pension. It's about 40% of my net worth.

I am also very well aware of the risks involved. The variables are interrelated and I do plan on doing an optimization study at some point.

There are benefits to retiring earlier with less vs. retiring later with more (and vice versa). I do plan on thinking more about the specifics of tax and net worth and various utilizations that are available to transfer net worth to tax-free.

Also of interest as of late is how to de-couple from the most inflationary items (Essentially the basic necessities):

Medical Care
Housing
Food
Transportation
Energy

I do have some thoughts on how to de-couple from these items in retirement. I see a hybrid solution, both relying on the existing economy but also utilizing self reliance as well as community involvement and support.
Last edited by Generation-X on Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:54 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:44 pm
This McMillan fellow is dense reading. Curious, when I come out the other side, will there be attractively priced options to buy?
That's a great question, and I honestly can not answer that question.

I view McMillan as a good reference book for beginners, and I know of others that share the same view, but this is just my opinion. YMMV.

The chapters that I really enjoyed were 1-3, 15-18, 28, 36-39, 40 but again, this is just my opinion*** about the book and others may disagree.

*** This is not an investment advice. Do not use my opinions as a basis for an investment decision. If you do so, you do it at your own risk and at your own peril, financial or otherwise. No guarantee of any kind is implied.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:24 pm

You mean I can’t blindly follow your advice and abscond my personal responsibility? Darn it.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:17 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:24 pm
You mean I can’t blindly follow your advice and abscond my personal responsibility? Darn it.
Here's your chance to go after Goldman -

The Goldman Sachs Suggested Reading List:

Written by Current or Former Goldman Sachs Employees

The Five Great Myths About China and The World by Jonathan Anderson and Fred Hu; PPP Company Limited; 2003
Exploring General Equilibrium by Fischer Black; MIT Press; 1995
Business Cycles and Equilibrium by Fischer Black; Blackwell Publishers; 1991
Managing Currency Risk by Fischer Black; Association for Investment Management & Research; 1989
Old Girls' Network: Insider Advice for Women Building Businesses in a Man's World by Connie Duckworth, Sharon Whiteley
Goldman Sachs : The Culture of Success by Lisa Endlich; Knopf; 1999
Beginning the Journey: China the United States and the WTO by Robert Hormats; Council on Foreign Relations Press; 2001
Global Aging and Financial Markets: Hard Landings Ahead by Robert Hormats; Center for Strategic and International Studies; 2002
The Boundaryless Organization: Breaking the Chains of Organization Structure, Revised and Updated by Steve Kerr
The GE Work-Out : How to Implement GE's Revolutionary Method for Busting Bureaucracy & Attacking Organizational Proble by Steve Kerr; McGraw-Hill Trade; 2002
The Practice of Risk Management by Bob Litterman; Euromoney Publications PLC, 1998
Foundations for Financial Economics by Bob Litzenberger and Chi-fu Hwang Prentice Hall; 1998
Markets, Mobs & Mayhem: How to Profit From the Madness of Crowds by Robert Menschel John Wiley & Sons; 2002
Adam Smith and the Origins of American Enterprise by Roy C. Smith St. Martin's Press; 2002
Wealth Creators : The Rise of Today's New Rich and Super-Rich by Roy C. Smith; St. Martin's Press; 2001
The Global Bankers by Roy C. Smith; BeardBooks, Incorporated; 2000
High Finance in the Euro-Zone: Competing in the New European Capital Market by Roy C. Smith; Pearson Education; 2000
The Money Wars: The Rise & Fall of the Great Buyout Boom of the 1980s by Roy C. Smith; BeardBooks, Incorporated; 2000
Cases and Readings in Markets, Ethics, and Law by Roy C. Smith; Simon & Schuster Custom Publishing; 1996
Street Smarts: Linking Professional Conduct With Shareholder Value in the Securities Industry by Roy C. Smith; Harvard Business School Publishing, 1997
Global Banking by Roy C. Smith Oxford University Press; 1995
Comeback: The Restoration of American Banking Power in the New World Economy by Roy C. Smith; Harvard Business School Publishing; 1993
Securities Markets in the 1980s: The New Regime 1979-1984 by Barrie A. Wigmore; Oxford University Press; 1997
The Crash and Its Aftermath: A History of Securities Markets in the United States, 1929-1933 (Contributions in Economics and Economic History) by Barrie A. Wigmore; Greenwood Publishing Group; 1986

Industry Background and Flavor

Understanding Wall Street by Jeffrey Little & Lucien Rhodes
The Global Bankers by Roy Smith
The Money Masters by John Train
The New Money Masters by John Train
Money Masters of Our Time by John Train
The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing by Benjamin Graham
The Visual Investor: How to Spot Market Trends by John J. Murphy
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America by Warren Buffett
Buffettology: The Previously Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett The Worlds by Mary Buffett and David Clark
The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor by Robert G. Hagstrom Jr.
The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market by George Soros
Bill Gross on Investing by William H. Gross
Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street by Peter L. Bernstein
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay
Greed and Glory on Wall Street: The Fall of the House of Lehman by Ken Auletta
The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance by Ron Chernow
The House of Nomura: The Inside Story of the Legendary Japanese Financial Dynasty by Albert Alletzhauser
The New Crowd: The Changing of the Jewish Guard on Wall Street by Judith Ramsey Ehrlick & Barry J. Rehfeld
One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market by Peter Lynch
Beating the Street by Peter Lynch
"Our Crowd": The Great Jewish Families of New York by Stephen Birmingham
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre
Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country by William Greider
Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve by George Soros, Bryon Wien & Krisztina Koenen
Guerrilla Investing: Winning Strategies for Beating the Wall Street Professionals by Peter Siris
The Battle For Investment Survival by Gerald Loeb
Money and Power: The History of Business by Howard B. Means
The Great Game: The Emergence of Wall Street as a World Power: 1653-2000 by John Steele Gordon
Toward Rational Exuberance: The Evolution of the Modern Stock Market by B. Mark Smith
100 Years of Wall Street by Charles R. Geisst, Richard A. Grasso
A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Gordon Malkiel
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings by Philip A. Fisher
The Go-Go Years: The Drama and Crashing Finale of Wall Street's Bullish 60s by John Brooks
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay, Martin Fridson, Joseph de la Vega
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises by Charles Kindleberger
The Big Board: A History of the New York Stock Market by Robert Sobel
The Chastening: Inside The Crisis That Rocked The Global Financial System And Humbled The Imf by Paul Blustein
From Here to Economy: A Shortcut to Economic Literacy by Todd G. Buchholz
After the Trade Is Made: Processing Securities Transactions by David Weiss
The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered by George Soros
Martin Zweig's Winning on Wall Street by Martin Zweig
Money Game by Adam Smith
The Fed : The Inside Story How World's Most Powerful Financial Institution Drives Markets by Martin Mayer
Maestro : Greenspan's Fed and the American Boom by Bob Woodward
The Quotations of Chairman Greenspan: Words from the Man Who Can Shake the World by Larry Kahane
Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco by Bryan Burroughs and John Helyar
Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis
The Predators' Ball: The Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and the Rise of the Junk Bond Raiders by Connie Bruck
When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenthal
Fiasco: The Inside Story of a Wall Street Trader by Frank Portnoy
Confessions of a Street Addict by James J. Cramer
Den of Thieves by James B. Stuart
Monkey Business: Swinging Through the Wall Street Jungle by John Rolfe and Peter Troob
Next: The Future Just Happened by Michael Lewis
The New New Thing: A Silicon Valley Story by Michael Lewis

Broad Industry History

Investment Banking: A Tale of Three Cities by Samuel L. Hayes III and Philip M. Hubbard
A History of Corporate Finance by Jonathan Barron Baskin and Paul J. Miranti, Jr.
Global Banking by Roy C. Smith and Ingo Walter
Wall Street Women by Anne B. Fisher
In the Black: A History of African Americans on Wall Street by Gregory S. Bell
The Last Partnerships : Inside the Great Wall Street Money Dynasties by Charles R. Giesst
The City of London, vol 1-4 by David Kynaston
The Rise and Fall of the Merchant Bank by Erik Banks
The London Stock Exchange: A History by Ranald Michie
The Death of Gentlemanly Capitalism by Philip Augar

Analytical and Reference
Periodicals

Wall Street Journal (daily, Monday through Friday)
Barron’s (weekly publication)

General

Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms by John Downes & Jordan Elliot Goodman
The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing by Benjamin Graham
International Economics: Theory And Policy by Paul R. Krugman
The Wall Street Journal Guide to Understanding Money and Investing by Kenneth M. Morris
The Irwin Guide to Using the Wall Street Journal by Michael B. Lehman
Financial Times Guide to Using the Financial Pages by Romesh Vaitilingam
The Atlas of Economic Indicators: A Visual Guide to Market Forces, and the Federal Reserve by W. Stansbury Carnes, Stephen D. Slifer
Wall Street Words: An Essential A to Z Guide for Today's Investor by David Logan Scott

FICC & Equities

The Bond Book, Third Edition: Everything Investors Need to Know About Treasuries, Municipals, GNMAs, Corporates, Zeros, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds, and More by Annette Thau
The Most Powerful Bank: Inside Germany's Bundesbank by David Marsh
Controlling & Managing Interest Rate Risk by Anthony G. Cornyn and Robert A. Klein
The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities by Frank J. Fabozzi
The Money Market by Marcia Stigum
Money Market Bond Calculations by Marcia Stigum
Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investment by David F. Swensen

Options/Derivatives

How I Trade Options by Jon Najarian
Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence McMillan
Options:Essential Concepts by The Options Institute
Options For The Stock Investor: How Any Investor Can Use Options to Enhance and Protect their Return by James B. Bittman
Trading Index Options by James B. Bittman
All About Options: The Easy Way to Get Started by Thomas A. McCafferty
How the Options Markets Work by Joseph A. Walker
Mastering Derivatives Markets: A step-by-step guide to the products, applications and risks by Francesca Taylor
McMillan on Options by Lawrence G. McMillan
New Financial Instruments by Julian Walmsley
Options, Futures and Other Derivatives by John C. Hull

IMD

Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management by Frank Reilly and Keith Brown

Written About, By or For Money Managers and Traders

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager
The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders by Jack D. Schwager
Stock Market Wizards: Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders by Jack D. Schwager
Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo
Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation by Victor Sperandeo
Exceptional Trading: The Mind Game by Ruth Barrons Roosevelt
Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering the Markets by Avi Kiev
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas
Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein
Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude by Mark Douglas and Thom Hartle
Trading in the Zone : Maximizing Performance with Focus and Discipline by Ari Kiev
Trading With Crowd Psychology by Carl Gyllenram
Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader by Martin S. Schwartz et al
The Master Swing Trader: Tools and Techniques to Profit from Outstanding Short-Term Trading Opportunities by Alan S. Farley
How to Trade In Stocks by Jesse Livermore
The Market Maker's Edge: A Wall Street Insider by Josh Lukeman
The Super Traders: Secrets and Successes of Wall Street's Best and Brightest by Alan Rubenfeld
Zebra In Lion Country by Ralph Wanger with Everett Mattlin
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J. Murphy
Hit and Run Trading: The Short-Term Stock Traders' Bible by Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading II: Capturing Explosive Short-Term Moves in Stocks by Jeff Cooper
Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies by Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke
The 5 Day Momentum Method by Jeff Cooper
The Real Holy Grail: Money Management Techniques of Top Traders by Eddie Kwong
Trading Connors VIX Reversals by Laurence A. Connors and Gregory Che

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 327
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:02 am

Awesome, comprehensive list. I’ll get back to you in about 5, 10 years :D

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:53 am

Time to try something new


I will soon be reaching the end of an experiment living within the planned retirement budget and seeing what it was like.

It's do-able, albeit with a standard of living that will be so-so as a regular dweller in a traditional abode.

One of the thoughts has been - what if?

What if I could save my whole paycheck or somewhere close to it? Is that possible?

A part of the driver has been the mega backdoor roth which could only be contributed after-tax and an effort in finding a funding source for it.

There are other reasons , but I've also noticed a steady increase in a number of "things" as life got more comfortable. I am literally stuffed in a box with "things". And I keep stuffing it with more things, subconsciously. That's how and where I live.

Therefore, I have decided to take on this challenge and make somewhat of a drastic change to my life, again.

The inspiration came from the tech world, from a new hire of a well known tech company who couldn't find affordable housing despite having a six-figure income. So he decided to live out of a box truck to save rent.

And this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyJhzTxSOU4

And this girl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smyaTERiMzM

The idea is to either outfit my vehicle or find/trade/borrow a proper vehicle that would be suitable for this purpose.

After some thinking and searching, the current plan is to find a good used Prius and outfit it as a rolling bed. There are several reasons.

First is the car itself - great gas mileage, stealth and most of all, its unique 24/7 operable air conditioning system, which is essential for a desert environment which tends to have drastic temperature swings depending on the time of the day.

Second is that I found myself beginning to dislike renting - the nuisances of others (i.e. smoking, dog poop, noise etc. and some too bizarre to mention) and dealing with the landlord, always unreachable, wanting more for doing less - you get the picture.

Third is that we are probably entering yet another housing bubble in California. The primary cause is the artificial restriction of supply. Combined with rising interest rates, the housing prices will continue to rise - until a recession.

A realistic housing price around here is 450k - 500k. While I could probably afford this with current income, I find modern houses to be inferior in construction quality and are usually built on a land where space is tight - certainly not worth the value of the asking price.

The housing is mainly desirable because of its locality to work and school. Once this constraint is removed, there are plenty of houses even in California where one can pay its worth. For me, the constraint will be removed in a few years and is not worth the risk.

There is a continuous sunk cost, in terms of annual upkeep, utilities and property tax. Unlike stocks or bonds with dividends and coupons, the only way to have a house generate cashflow is to become a landlord.

In good times, it's an appreciating asset. However, in bad times, it could just as wipe you out. IMO, US economy is entering a recession currently and it will be unavoidable.

Another thought was - is a shelter really worth 500k? Probably not.

I plan to use the next few months to experiment with this idea and if it appears feasible, put it into action.

To be continued...
Last edited by Generation-X on Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Generation-X
Posts: 136
Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 4:43 am

Re: Generation-X' Journal

Post by Generation-X » Sun Jun 03, 2018 5:57 pm

How are people homeless?


It is not easy being homeless!

In my research to become a mobile dweller, it didn't take long to discover the many challenges to being a road dweller.

First are the requirements for a driver's license. While Real ID isn't necessary to drive, it is required to fly, so thought might as well get it done.

There are three sets of documents that are required - 1. a birth certificate or passport etc., 2. SS card or W-2 etc., and 3. a proof of physical address such as utility bill or a rental agreement.

Funny thing is, when leasing an apartment nowadays, they will also require the same set of documents - two forms of identification i.e., driver's license, birth certifiacate, passport etc., and a copy of proof of residence i.e., utility or rental agreement.

So the first thing in getting a driver's license is the physical address, which is the very thing that you're trying to get rid of.

Second is the insurance. A physical address is required by insurance companies. Interesting thing is, auto insurance will not cover full timing in a vehicle. RV insurance will, but only for RV's.

So the full timing that people do, technically is an extension of an auto insurance coverage for a physical address while traveling.

A mailbox with street address from mail forwarding services cannot be used because it's not a physical address and will be recognized by the national database used by insurance companies.

Using a friend's or family's physical address is a possibility, though address for both the driver's license and the insurance must match and it's a grey area because technically you don't live there.

So some form of physical address will be required for both the driver's license and auto insurance. Then the question is, what kind of a physical address is the least cost?

My current thoughts are 1. a room for rent or 2. RV park or a mobile home park.

A room for rent is probably the least cost method of obtaining a physical address. A room can be leased with a rental agreement and it is a legal place where you live and work out of.

Once this is done, the moral obligations are completed. I say moral, because it is not illegal to not have a home. CA Dept. of Social Services will even issue an address to a homeless person.

Just as no one can dictate that you must only sleep in the bedroom and not on the sofa in the living room or in a tent in the backyard, deciding where you sleep around the place where you live is essentially no one's business.

You may decide to use the facilities of the place where you live and that sleeping in the car is what you like. Clearly, this isn't full timing in a vehicle. Keeping it simple is the best, probably for the insurance company.

Even for those who decide to keep the home but travel for an extended period of time - a common sense says the length of the travel is up to the individual to determine and not for anybody else to dictate.

Like it or not, traveling is a rising national trend, especially for those who do not subscribe to the traditional mode of living and would like to see the country while they can.

The law of supply and demand will reward insurance companies that cater to the customers' needs and will perish the ones that do not. Law of supply and demand works very well in capitalism.

The second thought is RV park or mobile home park. This will take more research and patience probably, because the numbers are limited. But my thought is to rent a space in one of these facilities. That's it.

But I think this is a harder way to go about, as there are abundance of rooms that are up for rent. The prices range anywhere from $300 - $600 per month. Apartments range anywhere from $1000 - $1400 per month.

Being a halfway minimalist could further reduce the cost of living, which is the only way for anyone to save in real terms today.

As long as real wages continue to stagnate as it has been for the past **two decades**, it would be a fool's errand to seek the traditional American dream of owning a home with two cars and a dog in the suburbs and vacationing in Maine few times a year with a boat in tow.

As this will result in a direct path to bankruptcy. Tiny homes, Apartment living, the dollar store, used cars and coupon clipping are already the mainstay of American life.

This is the direct result of the government policy of printing huge amount of debt and giving the money to both the poor and the rich, while squeezing the middle class.

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