Hi DG, re. the home mortgage: no chance on the familiebank and my company did not had any cash (company was dissolved recently).
Update after 3 months:
16 months out per current target*
NW around 635K**. +25K since Jan.
Savings ratio 71.0% TTW***. +0.3% since Jan.
Next 0-3 months
Previously: buy a home for the next 20+ years in the next 0-6 months.
Current: We found a house and have reached agreement with the seller. But there is still a reasonable chance the deal will fall through. We will know more between now and the next couple of months.
Next 3-15 months
Same as before: Buy a 1-2 more rentals (leveraged this time), but only if the numbers are work and the risk is acceptable
New: improve physical health
I got a painful back injury a couple of months ago. It is still not 100%, but recently made great progress after therapy and going to the gym. Proved (once) again that health is so very important. I want to continue my current exercise program, also when the injury is gone. Discipline, discipline...
So far I went 7 times in the last 14 days, I want to keep going at least 3 times a week.
(In)security and when is enough, enough?
If we would stay (no chance!) in our current house, our WR is likely around 4.5% 16 months from now. But if we buy the (or "a") other house, the WR is likely to go up to 6%. And we will need (a lot of) money for remodeling the house and we have 2 kids who probably go to college 6-10 years from now...
On the other hand, net cashflow from the rentals will cover almost all expenses (we have around 8% yield). In less then 25 years we will receive social security (assuming it is still there) and a small pension. We can cut costs and we can earn some.
Even if we see we will be short each month, it is probably fairly easy for us to cut some costs and earn some to get it in balance again. But it might not be as simple to get a good paying job like we have now, especially not if we're out of the field for a couple of years. Or, we stumble on something and start making again a lot of money....
Or, worse come to worst, we loose half of our NW, we need to move back to a a not so nice house, and we can still live easily and happily with some parttime job. But I don't want that, it would feel like a failure to go back at 55 to a low paying part time job.
Based on reading here and other forums, the feedback of others would likely be "no way you can make that work" to "sure, that's more then sufficient".
I guess I have to trust my own calculations, our own specific relevant scenario's and resilience to adjust plans when needed.
In 16 months from now, we might suggest to our employers we work 16-20 hrs a week for a while. I prefer not, but I could see this as an option to slowly move to full ERE (well, full, we are already > 40 y/o...)
One way or another it is very unlikely we'll keep our current jobs much longer then 16 months in its current way.
Thanks for reading this rambling Friday afternoon post
*depending on the market and the final house we buy this could be a bit more, but unlikely to increase with more then 9 months.
**NW estimation is based on slightly conservative estimation for our RE.
***incl. rental cashflow