a planter's garden

Where are you and where are you going?
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plantingtheseed
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a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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Smashter
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Re: Seed's journal

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plantingtheseed wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:06 pm
The Motivation
I love sports.
I also love sports. Can you explain how it's your motivation? Do you mean you want to retire early and play sports all the time? Watch sports? Get a career in sports without having to worry about making a lot of money at it?

plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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Smashter
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Re: Seed's journal

Post by Smashter »

Haha, got it. That's what jumped out at me, but that doesn't mean you should stop! It's your journal and your idea playground :)

If you are interested in learning more about asset allocation and playing around with different asset mixes, I can't recommend the site portfolio charts enough. It's created and run by frequent forum contributor Tyler9000.

plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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Asset Allocation Percentage of Stock/Bond and Exposure to Maximum Loss

Stock % / Bond % / Potential Maximum Loss Exposure

20/80/5%
30/70/10% - Sweet Spot for Retirees Rick Ferri**
40/60/15%
50/50/20%
60/40/25% - Sweet Spot for Long Term Investors (60% Stock / 40% Bond with 25% Potential Maximum Loss Exposure) Peter Bernstein*
70/30/30%
80/20/35%
90/10/40%
100/0 50%

*http://web.archive.org/web/200612140619 ... in6040.pdf
**https://www.emiratescapitalassetmanagem ... tirees.pdf

***One can also create a portfolio consisting only of individual stocks that does exactly this.
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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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jacob
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Re: Seed's adventure

Post by jacob »

plantingtheseed wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:53 am
As Buffett often states Carveth Read's quote, "It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong", I believe MPT is vaguely right not necessarily because it is right but more so because of the sheer number of people that are using it.
Yes. I like Mark Twain's quote that "What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so." IOW, the only way to consistently profit is from market inefficiencies created by people who are wrong yet believe they are right. It is this belief that imposes a level of unrandomness (structure) that one can target. Good targets are human psychology, academic training, government policy, and laziness.

However, all this exists on levels in the sense of a Keynesian beauty contest. Regular profit is only made in the interaction between two adjacent levels. For example, one can not profit from value investing (or mean reversion strategies) in a market driven to insane valuations by momentum. The reason is that prices are at a point where there's nothing to buy and moving in a direction that just causes further losses. It doesn't work because the Keynesian levels are too far apart. In order to profit consistently (rather than once a decade) the key is to be slightly less wrong than wrong---because insisting on being right makes it impossible to engage. (This is a hard art to master.)

plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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plantingtheseed
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Re: a planter's garden

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