Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

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IlliniDave
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Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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jennypenny
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by jennypenny »

IlliniDave wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:29 am
Certainly the preppers have a right to say, "I told you so," today. And most people still seem to believe that in some amount of time--weeks or months or years--some semblance of normal will reassert itself. I belong in that group.
I never say 'I told you so' because I didn't come to prepping because I had better foresight. We've had our own mini-apocalypses and I learned from them.

That said, even if things return to normal ... they won't. People will change after this. They'll learn what they miss and what they don't. Some will crack a little under the stress. Some will overreact and YOLO themselves into oblivion. Think of the people you've known that went through a terrible illness or sudden shock -- most change, and not always in predictable ways. Now extend that out to everyone you know going through something like that at the same time. Point being, even if you can hold it together and things look normal, they might still change going forward.

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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classical_Liberal
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by classical_Liberal »

When I semi-RE'ed last summer, I very much spent the first few months trying to figure out the next levels of ERE. It was hard, I didn't have a great grasp of some of the large concepts that were required. My motivation was that I've always been a bit of a prepper at heart, high anxiety, and thought that a more robust personal set-up would take care of those two things.

I made some progress, but then fell into the camp of "it's just not worth it". There were plenty of less "hard" ways to scratch my prepper itch, and I knew a little part time work could more than fund all my living expenses as they are currently, that satisfied my anxiety. So why work so hard to reach the next level? Well, COVID helped answer that question for me. Sounds like you may be in a similar boat?

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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ertyu
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by ertyu »

IlliniDave wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:28 am
Hearing about the trillions the US gov't is talking about borrowing without really getting the consent of the people who will have to pay it back rankles me, doubly so in these precarious times. If we go that route I think it's incumbent on us to prioritize maximizing the economy and finding the optimal point on the ascending side of the Laffer curve (I'm aware that certain interpretations of the idea are flawed) to set revenues and have some hope of paying it back.
It will not be paid back, it will be inflated away. This will not hurt those americans that live paycheck to paycheck - their debt will devalue while their salaries will hopefully index with inflation somewhat. It will not hurt those with mortgages either, as interest rates will stay under the inflation rate. Those with savings, one hopes, are smart enough to position their portfolios accordingly and protect themselves that way. As for the richest, they're probably busy taking out the largest loans they can and buying up whatever aquifers are left in South America.

The premise that increased gvt debt is always and necessarily followed by an increase in taxes is fallacious. This debt cannot be paid - not the debt taken out by now, and not the debt that will be taken out before this crisis is over. But that's not so bad - just load up on real assets, ditch the bonds, and you'll be fine :)

And yes, the Laffer curve is utter BS.

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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ertyu
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by ertyu »

IlliniDave wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:48 am
I'm not sure that there is a historical precedent for wages tracking inflation when inflation is deployed as a slow motion debt default/transferral.
Thus the "somewhat." I have lived through a period of hyperinflation. While the crisis episode happened, wages grew slower than prices (real wages fell) and pensioneers + anyone on relatively fixed nominal incomes was outright screwed. Yes, this did increase reliance on subsistence farming and repairing over replacing, but at least in my case did not lead to outright barter. It did, however, cause a run on comparative consumption non-perishables, e.g. cooking oil and other things that keep. People who kept savings in cash did have their savings wiped out. But people also had debts wiped out. As the situation normalized, wages began to index up, but debt which was already inflated away did not. On the whole, people I know who were laborers and lived paycheck to paycheck had a very difficult time while the hyperinflation was happening but are grateful looking back because they realize it eliminated their debt burden - brought them back to zero.

When I read estimates of the % of the american population who can't come up with X amount of money in an emergency or have savings below Y amount, I can't help but think that the poorest americans would on the whole benefit from inflation. When the dust settles, the increase to NW due to elimination of debt will be greater than the decrease of NW due to saving whose purchasing power was eroded. In the US, indebtedness goes beyond the poor - student loans are a major drag on the economy, for example.

I am not arguing inflation is harmless or it doesn't reduce standards of living, just that it's not such an extreme boogaboo as many americans seem to believe it is - which surprises me because america had its own experience with rising prices in the 70s.

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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ertyu
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by ertyu »

well, between inflating the us debt away (corporate + sovereign) and default, what would you choose? The thinking, "reward the profligate at the expense of the responsible" strikes me as very detached from macroeconomic realities. Economies grow on credit, and over the past 12 years, every single developed (and not so developed) economy has bent over backwards to structure incentives in a way that encourages leverage. The US working class isn't suffering because of the 70s and 80s. It's suffering because QE has not tricked down to it (so consumer prices wouldn't rise), because globalization exerts downward pressure on incomes, and because automation is gradually eliminating what used to be "good" blue collar jobs.

What I am not saying here: "yea bro screw little old ladies" - I have lived through hyperinflation, I know how old people lived during those times. Yes, inflation erodes the savings of those who do not protect their NW through asset allocation (or who are just screwed due to being on fixed incomes for one reason or another). Yes, I also realize that it is unreasonable to expect of everyone to be the sort of shrewd investor who would see inflation coming and know what to do about it. I am not saying that inflation doesn't hurt some -- I guess in your thinking, this is how the sovereign debt is "paid" for? If I understand you right? Some people would suffer and bear a cost, therefore those people can be seen as disproportionally "paying" that debt. That said, what was the alternative to not taking on that debt (the most recent one, in response to corona)? A shut-down without the stimulus would have been catastrophic on all levels. Corona without shut-down would've meant people dying in the streets, like in that Wuhan video someone took on their phone where the hospital was full, some people who couldn't make it in were sitting on a bench, two of them slumped and dead, the third one clutching his chest, unable to breathe. Would that have not led to unrest and economic havoc? Above, you say that people who had to pay the debt were not consulted - well, what would you have done?? Is there any other way to have dealt with this?

I'm at home and with a shelter-in-place (2bdrm apt, with parents) so I have time on my hands - so feel free to drop this convo if you find it unproductive, but imo notions of "being responsible" and fairness as you conceive of it have been irrelevant to US macroeconomic decision making for a long, long time. You know who I think was irresponsible? Trump and his tax cut...

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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ertyu
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by ertyu »

IlliniDave wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:00 pm
I should probably just not talk at all about the wider world in here.
Nah, you should talk about whatever you want to talk about, it was me who was out of line and got intense over this. Peace

Jason

Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by Jason »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:47 am

What I am not saying here: "yea bro screw little old ladies" -
I think Dave's smart enough to hold off until there's a vaccine.

IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

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IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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IlliniDave
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by IlliniDave »

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1taskaday
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Re: Phase III - Deja Vu All Over Again

Post by 1taskaday »

I am finding this lock down really mentally tough as well.
I can't bear that all of the busy places that I chose to go to before for a bit of life and energy are now deserted.
My DH finds this hilarious as I'm such an introvert.
An example of how extreme I am about idle chattering is the fact that I wore earphones walking on the Camino for a week to deter people from talking to me!

But on the other hand I have this craving for when I fully retire to sell our house and move to a more central buzzy area...

I intuitively know what will be best for me as I age.

Another huge eye opener for me was the benefits to the self from chatting to strangers as discussed on a recent "Making Sense" podcast by Sam Harris on happiness or well being.

https://samharris.org/podcasts/196-science-happiness/

After listening to this it is obvious that humans need human contact to feel good about themselves.

I always felt so proud of myself that as an INTJ female I was not "needy" of gossip and company like other females ...how wrong I was.

If I want to age well I need to change my behaviour and get more socially active and chatty.

My first challenge is making small talk in queues...a thing I detest.(Naturally post Rona)
In the podcast it was discussed that even though this is abhorrent to introverts it makes them feel great afterwards for having made a connection with another human being.

I have so much to work on to achieve a happy retirement/aging which is my greatest priority.

I have the diet/excercise/muscle retention down pat...but seemingly social contacts are more important than all of these...

Who would have thought??

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