I Saved Some Money, Accumulated So Good

[Cheepnis]

May Update

Spending

Rent - 212.5
Records - 126.82
Groceries - 92.15
Gas - 60.95
Various Project Supplies - 39.98
Electricity - 25.99
Phone - 17.7
Internet - 17.5
Garden supplies - 9.99

Good month overall. Bought too many records, all current jazz. I figured if I want to have current jazz records released in the vinyl medium I need to be part of the demand for them. It'd be great if there was even enough demand to get some 90's-00's reissues coming. At any rate Chris Potter's Circuits and The Bad Plus' Activate Infinity are getting heavy play right now. Totally worth it.

Reading and Running

Have fallen off both these horses a little as the past few weeks. Reading excuse: I've been pretty busy. Running Excuse: had a week of really shit weather. Hopping back on those horses now.

27. The Dark Forest - Liu

Both this and The Three Body Problem have such cool ideas and concepts but really fell short on the execution for me. His characters and story arcs are such a drag. Perhaps it's a cultural or translation thing? I'll finish the trilogy at some point.

28. Zappa: A Biography - Miles

He's such an amazing composer, bandleader, and guitarist, but man what a deeply deeply flawed human being.

On to...

29. Hellenistic Philosophy: Stoics, Epicureans, and Sceptics, 2nd Edition - Long

/

DR: 53
MR: 281.7

I've gotten it into my head to try to bring my average miles per run up to 5.5 by the end of the year. This is a totally arbitrary goal. Currently at 5.31.

NW

My pre-covid recorded peak was on Jan. 31st. Including contributions I'm now way beyond that peak. This market is crazy.

Quantifying House Purchase

I've been doing a little work to actually put a number on realizing this little pipe dream of mine. I'm using a foreclosure listed a couple miles from me as a baseline for this hypothetical. 1200ft2, .23 acre, ugly Ugly UGLY interior, falling apart exterior, big shop in back, in a less safe neighborhood that I currently live, doubles distance to current jobsite + adds lots of road biking, listed $200k. I'm not going to find my unicorn so I think something like this that checks half the boxes is a reasonable expectation.

With 20% down, the total payed in property taxes, ~insurance, and interest over a 30-year fixed rate loan at 4.1% would be $208,322.26. If I'm currently "wasting" $212.5/m on housing I can reduce that number by $76,500 (212.5x12x30) for a total 30 year cost of $131,822.26, or $366.17/m more than I'm paying now. That's just money I'm "wasting", my monthly payment would necessarily be larger to include principle. This obviously does not include the costs I'd incur fixing the place, maintenance, utilities I'm not paying for now (water+garbage), extra commuting cost, changes in taxes/ins., and probably a bunch of other things. Looking at a total interest cost of over 118k makes me want to die inside a little, but an average cost over 30 years of $575/m for a shop and a large backyard I could turn into garden beds is a more reasonable way to frame it in my mind. Still a lot of money, though...

Currently I could put 20% down, but that would leave me with only a couple month emergency expenses and I like the peace of mind knowing I have multiple years of living expenses as a back up.

Other places to live

Supplementary to mortgage math I've also been distracting myself hunting for cheaper locales that interest me. Atop the list is Great Falls, MT.

Pros

• Not too big, not too small
• very similar climate to where I grew up, which is preferable to the climate where I currently
• cheaper houses, duh!
• further north, potentially long-term good from a climate-change angle
• extensive bike paths along the Missouri river running through town

Cons

• No UA local, which is high on the priority list as another local effectively solves employment problems should I absolutely need them.
• a laundry list of other things as I've never actually been there.

It's fun to daydream.

[Cheepnis]

Reading

30. A Tree Grows In Brooklyn

The more reading and living I do the more I am so thankful to be alive in the time and place I am. This book is eminently readable and though not presented in terms of overt hardship, it really drives home just how well I've got it.

Next up I think will be "The Fountains of Paradise" by Clarke. I'm slowly making my way through all the Hugo Winners.

Running

DR: 60
MR: 320.2

Work

Had a hell week at work two weeks ago.

Monday: tons of drama and fighting that I was inextricably part of. Ever since J got sent home the brats have been looking for any reason to star shit with me. They found a (bullshit) reason and were milking it for all its worth. The GC and my company didn't think it was a big deal, because it wasn't, but that didn't matter to the children.
Tuesday: 4am start for pour watch, more fallout from the drama
Wednesday: sent to another job till the drama passes over. All my superiors didn't want to have to go there and it wasn't a disciplinary move, but these guys wouldn't stop.
Thursday: Worked a day then had a graveyard at the hospital re-piping a sewage ejector. This was the most foul service call I've had the pleasure of doing. Fortunately we don't do that type of work too often. Double-time is nice though.
Friday: slept all day.

It's weeks like that that really make me question how much I'm truly not a van-person! haha. Oh well, this last week was pretty great and I'm in the middle of a 4 day weekend with the GF out of town. I'm taking full advantage of it playing loud jazz, working on projects, and going golfing. Hit the links Thursday at 7am with all the retirees, it was awesome. Heading out again tomorrow with a buddy.

[Cheepnis]

June Update

Spending

Rent - 212.5
Eating Out - 94.16
Groceries - 90
Speakers & Other Project Parts - 81.64
Records - 56.14
VPN Subscription - 47.76
Engine Projects - 44
Golf - 37
Gas - 21.41
Electricity - 21.20
Phone - 17.7
Internet - 17.5

Overall a pretty good month. Funded a couple small outdoor pizza gatherings which accounts for the high eating out cost. Perhaps better filed under gifts? Whatever.

Reading

31. The Fountains of Paradise - Clarke

Not as good as many other's of his I've read. Find it funny that this is won the Hugo.

32. All The Pretty Horses - McCarthy

I really like McCarthy's writing style. The bleak, dry matter-of-fact-ness accompanies his stories so well. Blood Meridian left me reeling when I read it. Such a brutal novel. I'm enjoying this one so far.

The library is now offering curbside pickup for held items which is good as I've been missing good access to non-fiction. Have an appointment for Thursday afternoon.

Running

DR: 65
MR: 347.7

Both the reading and running pace is slowing as seems to happen in the summer. Just got more going on.

Speaker Project

One of those things that's going on is finally wrapping up my speakers I mentioned a few posts ago. Here's some before and after pics of the cabinets that I finished yesterday. Completely removed all the old veneer and applied new. 30+ coats of fresh black paint with 800 grit sanding in between made the mounting faces pretty again. This took a bit longer than anticipated and I'm excited to finally get the components in them this afternoon.









Golf

I have made a goal for myself to either go practice or go golfing once per week this summer. The $5/hr driving range will help with keeping costs down, though I won't mind spending a little dough to go out on a nice course every now and then. My rule for myself is every hour spent on the range has to be matched by an hour on the putting green. The putter is the most used club and I'm not going to neglect it.

I've been out 5 weeks in a row now and already seeing good improvement. It's nice practicing a sensory-motor skill again, something I haven't really done since way-back in my saxophone days. It's also nice that I'm early enough in my development of this particular skill that it requires zero maintenance practice. I can hit the driving range and immediately start improving. Back in the day I had a good 60-90m/day I needed to practice saxophone to simply not get worse!

Thanks to some free round vouchers I've played 3 rounds for free this year so far and have successfully utilized some light negative visualization to manage my expectations. My reading of practical stoicism is continuing to help me detach my mood from my surroundings and circumstances. A streak of bad holes the last time I went out only slightly dampened my mood when year prior I might have really gotten frustrated.

[Cheepnis]

Wow! Doesn't seem to matter if there's a pandemic going on or not, things always get busy in July and August. This will be a higher than average income month as it's a 5 Friday month and I've picked up some good side hustles, however they are requiring large amounts of time. Give and take and accumulate, haha.

Covid

I've started wearing a mask full time at work for the past few weeks. The jobsite is still a low risk environment being outside and all, but it won't be that way forever. Seeing as we break inside and more and more people are cramming into the small room I'm now taking breaks and lunches apart from the crew. That's always been atop the list of least favorite aspects of the job anyway. Everybody crowding around small tables to take lunch and breaks together just kinda blows.

EDIT

Cliff notes version: coworkers think it's a hoax and it annoys me to no end.

/EDIT

Reading

33. Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me) - Tavris & Aronson

I hate that I recognize so much of the same bullshit discussed in this book in my own actions/thoughts. I know I can't completely escape it, but still... The sunk-cost-ish fallacy we all use to justify stupid things we did or said is so dumb. Thanks to some member of this forum months ago for bringing this book to my attention. Most of my non-fiction reading originates around here haha.

34. Inherent Vice - Pynchon

This is my first Pynchon book. Wasn't expecting a somewhat whacky who dunit, but I'm enjoying it. Sometime I'm going to give Gravity's Rainbow a shot.

Running

DR: 69
MR: 370.7

[mooretrees]

Might be interesting to plug in your mortgage calculations with a much lower interest rate than you used previously. Rates have dropped and that makes such a huge difference over the long term.

[Cheepnis]

A Problem of Perspective

I often find myself questioning whether or not I'm thinking about something from the correct frame of mind. An inconsequential example is of whether or not the music I listen to is eclectic. On the one hand I know intellectually that the breadth of style and genre of music I like is almost infinitely vast compared to the average American, yet I still feel like it's all mostly the same, that there's clear lines connecting all of it, such as western tonality, a relatively small assortment of instruments, or 95% of it being in 4/4 time. I just find it so frustrating that to the musical laymen the former is true, and for me the latter is also true, when in fact they're opposite opinions.

This light neuroticism most often manifests itself in my frequent overthinking of things I say or do, automatically looking for all the obscure ways they could have been interpreted badly. It's not a huge problem, but it is something I do too much, and unlike my personal musical preferences, things are far more grey as to which frame one might be interpreting from, which of course is what leads to the overthinking in the first place!

There's also a component in here somewhere connecting to my difficulties feeling connected to people easily. It seems too often I say things and get responses revealing we're actually talking about two different things, as if my point went right over their head. But that's the tricky thing, the point doesn't go over there head, it goes right in it, it's just that the head is standing on a different bluff. So the question is how can I align bluffs in those situations without coming across like a pretentious douche-bag. It always comes across bad re-explaining things when someone thinks they have it.

[Cheepnis]

Might be interesting to plug in your mortgage calculations with a much lower interest rate than you used previously. Rates have dropped and that makes such a huge difference over the long term.

I have talked to a couple local credit unions and gotten quotes. I'm looking at about a 3.5% APR, which you're right, makes a big difference. I've got a friend who just got a 2.85% FHA loan, so I started looking into that. Full term PMI was a bucket of cold water once I learned about that. A couple cute expensive houses have popped up recently, but I'm still gun shy. I keep telling myself good things come to those who wait. We'll see... haha

[mooretrees]

Full term PMI is crazy! That is an immediate no for me. The whole commitment is so long and expensive, it really is worth waiting. You seem pretty content where you are and while 20% is fantastic (better than I did) some people cash flow a house. I think you are right in holding off and exploring other areas.

[Scott 2]

My first mortgage was an 80/10/10. Instead of PMI, I put 10% down and had a second loan for 10% of the home value. That loan was at a significantly higher interest rate, around 6-7%. The intent was you pay it off first, avoiding long term PMI.

Could you do something like that?

[RFS]

My reading of practical stoicism is continuing to help me detach my mood from my surroundings and circumstances. A streak of bad holes the last time I went out only slightly dampened my mood when year prior I might have really gotten frustrated.

Dude, this is awesome! Are you doing any meditation at all? It goes hand-in-hand with stoicism, IMO. The stoicism anchors your mindset, and the meditation helps you notice when that anchor is moving around because of your perceptions (then respond appropriately.)

On the houses, I think anybody that waits is going to have their dollar buy increasingly more (although I could be wrong.) The Housing Bubble Blog has been working overtime to challenge the RE media-industrial complexes' reporting that everything is fine. Credit is drying up, increasing amounts of people are being laid off, and the V-shaped recovery narrative is crumbling. When the government forbearance policies end, and I believe they will eventually, the firesales will start hitting the market.

[Scott 2]

Where will people put their wealth, if not housing? Stocks are overvalued. Bonds are paying virtually nothing. US international reputation has tanked. Investors are sitting large piles of US dollars earning 1% interest, but the US government continues printing money.

I do think we may see drops in urban centers, as people flee to less densely populated areas. Remote work culture is causing a permanent shift in demand. That could raise non-urban prices though, even if the aggregate bubble pops. Real estate trends act locally.

IMO, when shopping for your residence, buy when you find a home that makes a good life. Don't select the place you'll spend 10+ years based upon maximizing investment returns. Often the best properties won't be on market during downturns.

[classical_Liberal]

I agree with @scott 2. Look at a place you will enjoy living. This is because transactional costs in real estate are ginormous. People who move often are the ones getting killed in real estate, if you know you're gonna live there for decades, and you don't buy too much house, you will not lose.

That being said. The best way to see what Real Estate prices are going to do in a local market is to look at local income trends. Real Estate is directly related to the local income. This is why a condo near some of the great beaches in the MS or AL are 1/2 the price of a condo in the frozen tundra of Bismarck, ND. Certainly one place has better livability factors. Now it's possible a disruption like work from home will change this long standing trend. If it happens, better to be ahead of the the curve. From an ERE standpoint (not needing job income) we are in a perfect situation to game this.

Generally I think real estate prices will remain stable. Until there is a shock to the system. Like rates going from 3% to 7%+ , or if some robinhood-type game changer significantly reduces RE transactional costs. Low rate leveraged real estate will kill other investments if we see larger scale, longer term inflation. So if you're in that camp (ie belive inflation is coming), now really is the time to act.

[RFS]

[Deleted]

[Cheepnis]

These are all good thoughts, thanks everybody.

RFS - I'm not doing any meditation, though I've thought it might be fun to experiment with. Progress remains incremental. Ultimately a couple bad holes on the golf course is pretty small potatoes and my mood is definitely not stalwart in the face of larger/more important happenings around me. Baby steps.

I don't think I'm sufficiently educated enough to make macro or micro predictions when it comes to any market. I can see and vaguely understand some of the macro signs/trends and while I'd like to take heart in The Housing Bubble Blog's position it just seems like the entire world isn't playing by the old rules, economically or otherwise. It will be fun, in a somewhat morbid way, to watch how it all turns out.

---

Scott - I do like the diversification angle and think it likely that owning a home here in the long term would be a net positive. However, that's not the express purpose I'm interested in a house. As you say, I'd like a place I actually want to live in.

Locally the trend here for decades has been up up up. That's a regional trend as well as smaller scale trend. I think my city specifically is really riding the coattails of larger neighboring cities as, and this ties in to what c_L mentions, there's not much going on here job-wise. There's a university but this area is far larger (~350k metro) than a standard university town, but other than that...? There's a couple mills... couple small factories... We're not a small tech hub or anything... I dunno what brings in outside dollars. I think I'm underestimating the power of the U, it just seems nuts that all this hinges on that thing.

---

c_L - The "how long am I going to live here" question is one I've given some thought to. I could see it going both ways. I do know that I definitely don't want to be a house hopper, so I need to get it figured out. I think if I were to buy a house here the probability I live the rest of my days in here would increase dramatically.

I'm not going to make any predictions about inflation, but every time I tell myself "good things come to those who wait" I'm also asking myself "but is that good thing these rock bottom interest rates?" Hell I don't know! I'm gun shy and will have to find the resolve eventually. I just see all these worst case scenarios: buy house, economy takes a major shit, work completely dries up, 800 guys on the out of work list (meaning I'm not getting a dispatch for a looong time), my decreased FU fund (due to down payment) runs out, I'm forced to have to travel large distances to work (shitty quality of life) to avoid defaulting (lose lots of money).

It all comes down to how tightly coupled my income is to my job. I have ONE income stream. The coupling analogy almost isn't appropriate because it implies some sort of connecting member, when for me it's a single rigid piece. Due to the nature of the job (likelihood of travel, feast or famine work opportunities), and my complete inability to generate other income without significant and maybe costly retooling, I'm extremely wary of taking on such a large commitment!

---

My apologies everyone for making this journal one never ending tautology on this point.

[Scott 2]

Not to over-simplify, but you seem like a smart and resourceful guy. I don't think risk of worst case scenario should leave your life on hold. You'll figure something out.

I bought my home at the peak of the late 2000's bubble. Paid $310k, a couple years later it appraised at $225k. Even today, it's estimated at only $270k. I resented it for a long time. If I'd waited one more year, I'd have done so much better. Instead of being down $40k on the investment today, I'd be up $35k. Call it a $100k total screw up, accounting for lost opportunity cost on that extra money.

It all still worked out. I'm FI anyways. It was higher drag sure, but who's to say I would have made an optimal choice a year later. Maybe I would have bought a $300k house anyway, only a year later. The banks were trying to lend us $500k. It would have been bigger, had greater carrying costs and fancier neighbors. I might have come out behind in that scenario.

I've come full circle on the experience. The home has been a reliable anchor in my life. We've been happy and lived well. Maybe the bad timing meant some extra time working, but that's not the end of the world. I got an extra year in my 20's living in a great place, instead of a crappy apartment. That's not a bad trade.

[Cheepnis]

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement, Scott. My 20's are very quickly coming to an end, if I don't act soon I'm gonna miss out on 20's home ownership! Hahaha

Buying at the peak must have been frustrating for a while. I think a large drop in worth would probably itch at the back of my mind, but knowing there would be plenty of time for the price to recover before I pay off the loan could be a little solace. Home prices here are way past their great recession low. Perhaps that would repeat itself in another meltdown scenario. Wishful thinking...

There's a cute refab/cash house that just popped up that ticks the most boxes yet. At the pace houses go around here there's no way I even have a chance, but it has made me decide I need to talk to some 203(k) loan officers. I've got my pre-approval from several standard mortgage lenders, might as well round it out so I can jump on a fixer if I want, which I do.

[Cheepnis]

July Update

Spending

Rent - 212.5
Groceries - 183.08
Records - 118.83
Parts/Project Supplies - 110.57
2-Pair Speakers for Refab off CL - 60
Golf - 59
Gas - 55.7
Gifts - 29.64
Electricity - 21.5
Phone - 17.7
Internet - 17.5
DQ Blizzards - 8.28
MISC 7.57

The 5 Friday month, working 40 hour weeks again, and having a couple lucrative (though time consuming) side hustles account for the very high income. Looks like there will be another good side hustle opportunity probably in September, possibly August, as well. My SR has been hovering in the 80-some % range all year and despite income being up nearly 50% from usual I did not hit a 90% SR this month. At fault is a ~$150 increase in expenses over my YTD average that the ~$2500 in extra income can't bully into submission. I don't actually care that I didn't hit 90%, but this does really hit home just what a large effect a few extra dollars has on the math.

Expenses should be much lower next month. I'm not going to buy a single record as I've been going off the rails with that this year, there's not much I should be needing in the way of materials or parts, and groceries should fall back to the $100/m average I run around.

Couple fun facts: 1) Despite cheating and not counting my spending of the $1200 stimulus on fancy audio equipment, I am just barely on track to come in under $10k/y even if I did include it. 2) Officially halfway to a 3% SWR and 2/3 the way to 4%.

Reading

Haven't moved on from Inherent Vice yet. Enjoying it but my reading opportunities have been very sporadic.

Running

DR: 72 +3
MR: 395.4 +24.7

[Cheepnis]

Running

DR: 73 +1
MR: 410.2 +14.8

Even though I'm so far ahead of my goal I still felt like I needed to make up for lost time considering I didn't run a single day this past week. So I ran the half marathon route and added the butte in the middle of it this morning. My excuse for not running at all last week was I got a yellow jacket sting on my lip and my whole face was swelled up. It's still about half the size of "peak swole", but most of the feeling of pressure is gone. Gotta say, that was quite the rude occurrence on my bike-ride home one day.

Reading

35. Ishmael - Quinn

Pretty cool book. Will definitely re-read at some point.

36. The Freedom Artist - Okri

Click Some Sticks

Every year for Christmas my mom knits me a hat. This year I decided to make the act mutual. I have zero experience knitting, but by golly I'm gonna learn. Ordered all the stuff I needed last month and yesterday I sat down and started to learn. Here's 80 Long tail cast-ons, one invisible join, and two knit stitches resulting from ~90 minutes work.



Learning the cast on and invisible join were pretty easy. The two knit stitches took some time, but I think I got them. Now I need to learn how to do purl stitches. I bought the cheapest yarn available on amazon to learn with and as you can see it's so fuzzy that it makes seeing the stitches pretty hard. Live and learn. The final hat will be some shade of blue and I'll get high quality yarn for it.

Cheepnis' Amateur Hour: Cash Flow

Right now my "Cash Flow Ratio"*, money out/money in, is very low, way under 1. No duh, that's what you get if ones SR is really high and you flip it around. The long term end result I want is a number closer to 1 so I guess I better start spending more. Haha, jk, gotcha! But seriously, it won't be too long before I'm bare-bones FI and even if I move, or have a mortgage, or whatever else changes, I'll have a stash capable of supporting my core spending habits. At that point I would only need to generate additional income to cover standard housing expenses. That small amount of additional income would be easily covered by 1/2x work at minimum wage or 1/10x work at journeyman wage.

At the end of the day I don't see myself ever generating significant income from anything other than a job. I'm not an entrepreneur, don't have the disposition for the gig economy, and ultimately lack the imagination. That's ok though, all I'm really trying to do is free myself from the 40 hour grind. One example: working part time at a golf course just to eat a couple hours a week, provide some structure/small income, and give me free access to a course could be something very in line with a life I want to live.

*Is this even a thing. It probably is but with a much more serious sounding name. Whatever, I'm making this all up as I go.

[SomewhereInTime]

Well done with the knitting. DW is real into that. Albeit she uses a loom. Xmas is kind of far away, way to be on it.

I also wanted to comment on the Zappa reference for your screen name. I saw Dweezil Zappa live in Dallas a while back. I really enjoy the fusion of humor and music. I might add that I was one of the only dozen or so non boomers in the audience. Real sad that more young people don't listen to his brilliant music.

[Cheepnis]

If I'm not on it I won't get it done! I practiced several rows of knit stitches yesterday while watching the Baumgartner Fine Art Restoration youtube channel. I'm secretly a little old grandma! haha

Going to jazz school and having surrounded myself with mostly musicians since high school I had a very biased view of our cohort's music preferences. Forget Zappa, I feel that the share of millennials into pre-80's (hell, pre-90's) music that isn't LZ or PF is very low regardless of artist.

Zappa really was one of a kind. The cheekiness and camp make me warm and fuzzy inside. He had this ability to accentuate the lyrical humor with the the musical humor while maintaining a "seriousness" to the entire package. I do wish his endless bitterness hadn't consumed him by the 80's. I think the music remained as good as ever but his negative attitude could become overbearing. That 70's shit though... I had to splurge and buy the Halloween '77 box when it came out. Couldn't resist that many chances to hear Terry tear up those drums. And I've been salivating over the Zappa In New York 40th Anniversary box but have managed not to pull that trigger.