Generational Differences

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jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:45 am

Chad wrote:There is one abherration in US history: The Civil War. ... I don't think it was just because it came too early. I think the bigger issue is that they were killed in droves.
I suppose eliminating a generation can change things. Hasn't that happened several times before though? Most wars eliminate a large percentage of the young men. Or is Howe's theory only applicable to the US? Even so, didn't WWI and the 1918 flu pandemic eliminate a large percentage of young men?

Maybe eliminating the women instead of the men, like in GandK's Bare Branches example, changes the dynamic? I don't think losing a generation of young women has happened before, has it?

Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:50 pm

jennypenny wrote:
Chad wrote:There is one abherration in US history: The Civil War. ... I don't think it was just because it came too early. I think the bigger issue is that they were killed in droves.
I suppose eliminating a generation can change things. Hasn't that happened several times before though? Most wars eliminate a large percentage of the young men. Or is Howe's theory only applicable to the US? Even so, didn't WWI and the 1918 flu pandemic eliminate a large percentage of young men?

Maybe eliminating the women instead of the men, like in GandK's Bare Branches example, changes the dynamic? I don't think losing a generation of young women has happened before, has it?
They said it's not just in the US, but if I remember correctly not all countries are at the same part of the cycle? It's been a while since I read it.

I wasn't 100% sure on the numbers, so I went back and looked:

Spanish Flu - 500k-675k died against a total population of 106M (1920)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic

Civial War - 620k-850k died (seems like they lean towards the bigger number) against a population of 38M (1870)

http://www.civilwar.org/education/history/faq/

and population source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi ... ted_States

The Spanish Flu killed .6% (at 675k) of the population and the Civil War killed 2.2% (at 850k) of the population. Even if you add the 116k of WWI you still only get .75% of the population. While, the Spanish Flu did hit people under 65 harder than normal, it is still spread out to some extent into the really young and really old more than Civil War casualties probably were.

Plus, the Civil War is the only major war fought on US soil, which resulted in a massive disruption in life for people in the South.

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego » Sat Oct 12, 2013 5:37 pm

Chad wrote:Though, I think the same basic human characteristics force us to repeat history over and over. The only difference really seems to be the speed/acceleration of it all.
Are they suggesting that inherited genetics create the characteristics of each generation (ie, prophets begat nomads) or is it learned (ie, prophets teach their children to become nomads)?

If these turnings are driven by psychological archetypes, how would those archetypes be affected by the drastic changes taking place in psychology. Discontent is a major driver of change. Does the drugging of the discontented skew the turnings? 1 in 5 adults in the US is taking some sort of psychiatric drug. If I am drugged into complacency would I feel compelled to rebel against the previous generation? It seems that that rebellion is a key element.

Also, the number of children growing up in fatherless homes has exploded since the Silent Generation was born. Those who grow up in fatherless homes are statistically very different from those who do not... http://thefatherlessgeneration.wordpres ... tatistics/

Changes in.... mothers working outside the home, daycare, breastfeeding, attachment parenting, overprotective parenting .... these are all fundamental changes in how we are brought up. These changes have occurred in a very short period of time.

The only way these changes would not influence the generational archetypes is if the archetypes are the result of genetics alone.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:10 pm

I don't know if they (Strauss and Howe) even suggest one way or the other. I would doubt it's genetic. Probably more learned. Where it just slowly leads from one cycle to the other.

Those issues might mess up the cycle. I must say, I'm a little doubtful the drugs do it. We have drugged ourselves for a long time. From lead poisoning to alcohol to cocaine, we seem to be able to find some substance to hurt ourselves with. I would guess much of the 1900's was self-medicating with alcohol on a higher level than we do today.

The single parent households seems like it would have a better chance to disrupt the cycle. Though, again, it's really hard to do high quality studies in psychology. Should we be comparing fatherless families too all families, normal decent functioning families, or families that have two adults that are completely dysfunctional? Many of these single parent households have at least one adult, if not both, who are really unfit to be parents. Would it really help if they were included in the family?

Or, maybe this is just all part of the cycle? We go through the high level of single families and divorces, and the next generation promises themselves they won't let that happen. This is what seems to be happening with the Millennials. They also seem to be reducing their use of heavy drugs on a voluntary basis, as opposed to my generation who did it to just give everyone the bird.

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:49 pm

Chad wrote: I must say, I'm a little doubtful the drugs do it. We have drugged ourselves for a long time. From lead poisoning to alcohol to cocaine, we seem to be able to find some substance to hurt ourselves with. I would guess much of the 1900's was self-medicating with alcohol on a higher level than we do today.
Good point. That's true.
Chad wrote:
The single parent households seems like it would have a better chance to disrupt the cycle. Though, again, it's really hard to do high quality studies in psychology. Should we be comparing fatherless families too all families, normal decent functioning families, or families that have two adults that are completely dysfunctional? Many of these single parent households have at least one adult, if not both, who are really unfit to be parents. Would it really help if they were included in the family?
I would guess there would be certain individuals who ferment the changes we later view as historical inflection points. We should probably be studying them on a apples to apples basis.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:52 pm

Ego wrote: I would guess there would be certain individuals who ferment the changes we later view as historical inflection points. We should probably be studying them on a apples to apples basis.
That would be interesting, because there are always a handful of key players.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:48 pm

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/news/sport ... on?src=rss

I found the Kareem Abdul Jabari quote from the mid-80's very interesting as a commentary on where we went wron and what the younger generations have to fix.

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego » Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:20 am

Chad wrote:http://www.esquire.com/blogs/news/sport ... on?src=rss

I found the Kareem Abdul Jabari quote from the mid-80's very interesting as a commentary on where we went wron and what the younger generations have to fix.
That article sums it up very well.

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:41 pm

Throughout this discussion we assumed they were choosing not to run. Here is an interesting new study that says they don't have the abilities their parents had.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24998497
Many children cannot run as fast as their parents could when they were young, a study of global fitness says.

Experts say the work - being presented at the American Heart Association's annual meeting - suggests children's fitness levels may be declining.

Researchers analysed data spanning 46 years and involving more than 25 million children in 28 countries.

On average, children today run a mile 90 seconds slower than did their counterparts 30 years ago, they said.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Seneca » Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:37 pm

Ego wrote:Throughout this discussion we assumed they were choosing not to run. Here is an interesting new study that says they don't have the abilities their parents had.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24998497
Many children cannot run as fast as their parents could when they were young, a study of global fitness says.

Experts say the work - being presented at the American Heart Association's annual meeting - suggests children's fitness levels may be declining.

Researchers analysed data spanning 46 years and involving more than 25 million children in 28 countries.

On average, children today run a mile 90 seconds slower than did their counterparts 30 years ago, they said.
Saw this, 90seconds in the mile is a shocking difference. Unfortunately it seems we're headed to a barbell society in more ways than just financial. :(

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny » Sat Apr 11, 2015 9:36 am

A recent Peak Prosperity podcast with Neil Howe. The comparisons between today and the '30's are disturbing.

If you've never read the Fourth Turning, Howe does a concise recap of the concept at the beginning of the podcast.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Did » Sun Apr 12, 2015 6:32 am

A whole lot of banter here. On the competition thing, it's easy to be all for it when you're the guy who finishes first. My school was like that. I came out fine, but I don't think I was the better person for it. I actually think for most people a less intense school would be better. There is no need to compete at their silly games: that's the idea isn't it. Escape the rat race, whoever sets the rules. Why shouldn't the below average intelligence rat have an excellent life, and feel good about himself? That's part of the appeal of ERE, I think. They can, even if they're not Tim Ferris. That guy is ultra competitive. He wants to be the richest, the fittest, the sexiest, the loudest. No matter what he wrote when he was 25. ERE types just want to be left alone.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny » Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:56 am

A recent article on The Art of Manliness about the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory ...
The Generations of Men: How the Cycles of History Shape Your Values, Your Idea of Manhood, and Your Future

I thought the section on whether millennials can be the next hero generation was interesting. From that section, "While it is often said that Millennials are “idealistic,” this is perhaps a projection from Boomer parents who tried to instill this value in their kids; while Millennials do want meaningful jobs, they value “being financially secure” higher than other generations. They also place more importance on getting married, having kids, and being a leader in their community than Boomers and Gen X-ers do."

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:20 am

An interesting side note to the generational change theme is in movies. Currently there appears to be a growing backlash against dark serious movies. Specifically, against movies that take an iconic character and make them darker and more serious. I'm pulling this from the comments on various Sci-Fi and nerd blogs I follow. There was a rather large group of people who disliked the new Superman movie (Man of Steel) because it was too dark. This criticism even included his actual Superman outfit. "Not enough color" were in a lot of comments.

Criticism of this movie type seems to have increased with the upcoming Batman vs. Superman and the new X-Men movie. I have seen complaints that the Batman vs. Superman is too dark and that people are happy some of the X-Men are ditching the black leather suits for more comic inspired and colored suits (which could get absurd if they go too far).

I don't entirely agree, which isn't surprising given my Gen Xness. I have disliked Superman forever. He is too good, too unrealistic, and too powerful (no villain can possibly threaten him, so boring stories). However, I was ok with the movie. I guess the slight darkness, and it is slight, made the Gen X in me more tolerant of a character I dislike.

Another demonstration of my Gen Xness is that I never thought the X-Men movies went dark enough with Wolverine or Storm.

All of this seems to match the Strauss and Howe model. Of course, there is always the danger this is just a more advanced horoscope "prediction" that is more entertaining than fact.

@Jenny
I find it interesting how much you seem to like the Art of Manliness considering your staunch feminism. Of course, the site/podcast by no means talks down to women and has decent content, so maybe not a huge surprise. Maybe just the initial time risk of trying out the site is where it's surprising. :)

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego » Mon Jul 20, 2015 9:26 am

Chad wrote:Of course, there is always the danger this is just a more advanced horoscope "prediction" that is more entertaining than fact.
@Chad, that's it! Each time I hear Howe speak with such conviction about generational characteristics I get the exact same feeling as when someone asks my zodiac sign then nods knowingly. I didn't realize it until I read what you wrote.

jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny » Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:04 am

Why are you guys assuming that horoscopes aren't for real??

@Chad--What’s not to love about AofM? They do some cool stuff on that site. I prefer men's sites because *in general* men’s sites are more about doing things and women’s sites are more about being/looking a certain way or discussing the latest issue to worry about. I also read AofM because I’m raising two boys--most of the time by myself--and I want to do a good job of it.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad » Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:24 am

My numerology belief tells me horoscopes can't be real!

@Ego
Yeah, Strauss and Howe do sometimes sound like horoscope predictions, but so does Myers-Briggs. I do think Strauss/Howe and Myers-Briggs actually have validity, as opposed to horoscopes. Though, I kind of view those theories like they are herding cats. Sometimes those theories can be very right and can even be useful to predict certain broader themes, but it's never going to be a smooth obvious prediction. These theories are imprecise.

@Jenny
I agree. I just saw this as a small interesting quirk. The Art of Manliness may do themselves no favors by supposedly being male focused. The site, as you suggested, is very broad and not overly male.

jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny » Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:51 am

@Chad--I think you nailed my quirk. What AofM promotes as 'manliness' I just see as being a capable person. I wonder if that means I should move to Idaho. What's the phrase? "Where the men are men, and the women are, too." or something like that.

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:23 pm

Lake Wobegon, Minnesota is where "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above-average."

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Re: Generational Differences

Post by oldbeyond » Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:37 pm

Here in Sweden, the general sentiment seems to been one of contempt for overly ambitious young yuppie-types that care only for their careers material gain and are obsessed about competing in various races. The communitarian citizen of old, with his passion for equality and the common good, is lamented as a dying breed. It's an interesting contrast.

To be fair there is quite a bit of talk about young people being adrift, getting useless degrees or becoming baristas etc, too.

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