This is the part I don't get. Likely because there seems to be some level of disagreement between the flavor of pessimism of the experts I have read, and I am too lazy to attempt to do the math myself. Everybody left living up in some polar region would seem to correspond to a GDP drop of MUCH more than 4%.jacob wrote:Will everything be developed? Kind of depends on what you mean by everything. We're already far past the point where you can dig a new oil well with a shovel... or develop a new coal seam with literal horsepower. This speaks to the reboot problem. It's a progress trap. Are there enough fossil reserves left to send global temperatures up by 4C+ and can that be developed, perhaps in service of producing enough nitrogen/calories to feed the polar masses [of humans]? It most certainly can.
IOW, I get the science/math of peak oil and I get the science/math of climate change, but I don't get the likely fallout of the intersection of these, especially given other reserve issues, such as water, and extreme variation in regional effects and starting conditions. I gave both of my children a copy of The Knowledge, and I have told them that whenever they or their (as of yet theoretical) children have a choice or opportunity they should move due North, and I intend to develop my permaculture project(s) towards resilience to erratic weather patterns combined with overall increasing warmth, but ...?