apocalyptic techno-optimism

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Jean
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Jean » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:31 am

But one could make several simulation of a person, with a set of randomly approximate initial conditions, to get an idea of the most probables outcomes.

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daylen
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by daylen » Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:36 am

Maybe. Then the problem is calculating/measuring an approximate initial condition.

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7Wannabe5
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:22 am

Jean wrote:But one could make several simulation of a person, with a set of randomly approximate initial conditions, to get an idea of the most probables outcomes.
Right. I agree that creating a simulation of human consciousness, or even a simulation of a particular human's consciousness for the benefit of other humans is possible. No different than modeling for weather or stock market or attempting to write a novel in the style of Jane Austen. The problem is enabling continuation of consciousness for our billionaire clients themselves, rather than simply creating the high-tech version of a taxidermist stuffed pet for their heirs or disciples.

daylen wrote:Creating an interface between a fleshy soup of chemicals and a machine/chip is the major obstacle.
Major major. Maybe I was too hasty in suggesting necessity of brain-case implantation. Multiple pathway with two-way feedback into nervous system might serve as well. A friend of mine invents medical devices. One of his designs was a patch a blind person can put on his forehead in order to feel thermal image of immediate environment. I practiced walking around his backyard with my eyes shut, just trusting that the thermal imprint was adequate/accurate. It was very clumsy, but I could sense how with more practice, it could become "natural" to accept the imprint as reality.

So, if you had a collection of similar devices, and there was a feedback loop from the human body, and some sort of simple, flexible co-evolutionary mechanism (as opposed to rigidly programmed prime directive)..?

Jean
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Jean » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:51 am

My optimism is that a sentient ai will send us back slowly to neolythic, instead of letting us fall back there.


Jean
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Jean » Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:06 am

I was thinking about a more gentle way, like telling people around the internet how they could work less by consuming less, and getting rid of the others by amuzing them to death.

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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:44 pm

@Jean

Grade A

jacob
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by jacob » Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:08 pm


Augustus
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Augustus » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:24 pm

Is age of stagnation worth reading?

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7Wannabe5
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:47 pm

Is age of stagnation worth reading?
Yes. His tone is oddly comforting. Like the voice of a 1960s National Weather Service meteorologist calmly listing time-stamped heading co-ordinates of a major incoming shit-storm.

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:00 am

Age of Stagnation is a good book.

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vexed87
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by vexed87 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:28 am

Jean wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:06 am
I was thinking about a more gentle way, like telling people around the internet how they could work less by consuming less, and getting rid of the others by amuzing them to death.
Some schools of thought would have you believe that if enough people did this, it could collapse the delicate interconnected global economy with obviously disastrous consequences. Of course, we don't really need to worry about that, it ain't gonna happen because we can't all be hair dressers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQaw2fix3q0

Sid
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Sid » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:16 pm

Okay time to throw in another article to read. It brings the question to mind what technological advance will spark the next industrial revolution, assuming there will be one? And will this revolution come before the demise of humans, assuming the next revolution can solve the problems that would lead to extinction? Time will tell, there are many variables in play.

https://medium.com/future-literacy/re-w ... 516a78bebb

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vexed87
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by vexed87 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:56 am

@Sid, You might be making the widely mistaken assumption that piling on more complexity in the form of large scale technological revolutions at a time of falling energy per capita might be preferable, rather than preferably avoidable.

I don't think AI/nanotech will take off like the techno-optimists think, generally those who proclaim the wonders of those technologies are wishful thinkers, and do not understand the complexities of the proposed undertakings. Classic examples of victims of the Dunning-Kruger effect. There are limits to the interventions that humans can ultimately succeed in. The scope for disastrous unintended consequences of environmental engineering or nano-tech to try and save us and the wilds is staggering.

Maybe we will see piecemeal applications of these technological realms, but mostly in basic automation and machine learning, not true industry crippling sentience and biological engineering on a planetary scale. We might see more automation of high value work (niche jobs are going nowhere fast!) and yes maybe we will see a few driverless cars if they can avoid disastrous PR, but more realistically than technological revolution, I think we will see efforts focus on 'efficiency revolution' out of necessity. That or, everyone will be trying to increase their size of a shrinking pie, which has the most unpleasant consequences for the losers. Efficiency won't solve many fundamental predicaments, but perhaps a few problems, at least in the short term.

Technological revolutions by definition are events which fundamentally transform our economy, and the way we leverage our tools to be productive, so an efficiency revolution could be a technological revolution, but it's hard to define and quantify, unlike the roll out of factories and combine harvesters. Efficiency has it's limits too. More simply, we can move to halt wasteful behaviours, yet many of those wasteful behaviours keep the economy churning... so there's that.

Critically, any revolution which hinges on maintaining the status quo do not and cannot solve our growth problem (à la Jevons Paradox), but 'fixes' have the potential to drag out the shit show a little longer. A good place to start with regard to the potential 'efficiency revolution' is Natural Capitalism by Hawken et al.

Sid
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Sid » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:19 pm

@vexed Thanks for laying that out. The point I was trying to make was there may be a chance that technology would increase enough that it could delay environmental degradation significantly and in the name of "apocalyptic techno-optimism" maybe even fix it, but probably not. I think that would be nice, but you are right, significant delay does not solve the bigger problem. Like you said "Efficiency won't solve many fundamental predicaments, but perhaps a few problems, at least in the short term." maybe this will just be enough time for humanity to change its ways. Also, If I could change my username I would change it to Mt. Stupid.

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Hobbes
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Hobbes » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:43 pm

@vexed

Nevermind, I misread it :oops:
I got it now
Sid wrote:
Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:19 pm
Also, If I could change my username I would change it to Mt. Stupid.
That's seems like a bit of an overreaction :lol:

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vexed87
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by vexed87 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:03 am

@Sid, you might find this conversation interesting:
https://youtu.be/svlU6p0gHgo?t=452

Sid
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Sid » Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:44 pm

@vexed
Thanks for sharing. Really instills a lot of optimism (sarcasm). I guess society and I need to bite the bullet and use far less energy created from environment harming means. But will this come to fruition? Probably not, or at least not until major damage has already been done.

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