FIRE reaching Critical Mass

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prognastat
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by prognastat »

All I know is that I'm the only person I know interested in FIRE, though as I don't tend to bring it up unprompted there might be some other fellow travellers flying under the radar without me knowing.

Laura Ingalls
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by Laura Ingalls »

@Jacob

Good list

I do have a bit of a nit to pick. While my children think I am ancient enough to remember all of these firsthand I can only speak to the last two. While the concepts YMOYL are solidly built and accumulated in the 1970s the book wasn’t actually published til 1992. I bought it in paperback circa 1994. Sort of like you accumulated money and ideas in the early 2000’s and published a bit later.

The Nearing stuff was mighty popular in the 1970s with the back to the landers, Mother Earth News). They are talking about an earlier era too. I remember “reading” Dad’s Mother Earth magazines and Foxfire books back before I could actually read. :geek:
jacob wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:54 am
2010s (dot com/RE crash) 4HWW, ERE, MMM, ... FIRE-bloggers, 4%-rule, minimalism, index funds.
1970 (go go investing crash, oil crisis) - YMOYL/Roadmap, Robin/Dominguez, Callenbach, Elgin, Luhrs, Simple Living, .. lots of ecology stuff.
1930 (great depression) - Nearing (again), Borsodi, frugality, self-reliance.
1890 (long depression) - Helen & Scott Nearing, As Man Thinketh, ... homesteading(*), self-sufficiency, thrift.
1850 (panic of 1837+) - Thoreau

ThisDinosaur
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by ThisDinosaur »

https://youtu.be/kD8uNm5ck0Q
Playing with FIRE documentary preview that does not mention ERE. My inner permabear says this is more evidence of an impending market crash.

Would there be a FIRE movement without the ERE blog or book?

The Company Man version of FIRE represented in the above trailer seems to only depend on the Trinity Study (4% rule) and the past success of index funds. The message is :"Anyone can do this. No need to compete."

Whereas Jungle Fighter FI evangelists (Financial Samurai, Rich Dad) imply that some skill is required. Kind of like poker, where skill and luck are both necessary for success.

prognastat
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by prognastat »

I think the main reason is that it's mostly that the ones in the documentary show a pleasant version of FIRE more palatable to the mainstream.

Most people even in the mainstream will say I could never do that, but it's impressive when looking at people like MMM or the Frugalwoods. Most in the mainstream would look at Jacob and simply write him off as impossible/crazy(no offence intended Jacob).

So I think it's more about optics than anything else.

However more people getting into FIRE brings them a step closer to ERE.

jacob
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by jacob »

I've actually been in contact with them since May and was supposed to go to Austin, TX for an interview in June but then they cancelled on me a few weeks before it was scheduled citing money issues. Based on the kickstarter text it looks like they're wrapping up, so it doesn't look like there will be any ERE input there. But I don't know ...

It might just be my inner Wheaton level feeling but the way the FIRE-movement is currently being portrayed/recruiting (outside the ERE bubble) seems to be more along the lines of:
  1. First, acquire a $150-250k+ annual salary.
  2. Learn to live like a normal consumer at $30-50k per year.
  3. FIRE in 10 years with $1-2M in savings.
IOW, it's high-income earners at ERE Wheaton level 3-4.

I might be wrong though. Another reason why I wasn't included is that I'm not exactly part of the FIRE/PF in-crowd so they got a hold of me relatively late in the shooting/process (apparently this project started a couple of years ago). I'm somewhat of a recluse on the FIRE scene.

Add: @prognastat - When I talked to Travis some months ago I might also have expressed some reservations based on my experiences with mainstream exposure back in the 2010. I'm not exactly wearing my upbeat happy face when I talk about the "hows" and "whys" of going mainstream. Also I might have made a joke about including people who weren't all software engineers 8-)

ThisDinosaur
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by ThisDinosaur »

jacob wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:54 am
...
It's also interesting how the different eras appeal to different types of people. The loudest voices currently are high-income or digital-nomads or both. Without QE, I don't think the current wave would have been nearly as strong---or maybe it would be, but it would be different people.
jacob wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:56 am
Also I might have made a joke about including people who weren't all software engineers 8-)
Why is this? One explanation is that there is a large and growing demographic of software engineers with a large and growing quantity of disposable income. Maybe this is only a sign of a localized bubble in the software engineer labor market.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

In the first few minutes of his interview with the MadFIentist, Travis mentions one of the first and most impactful books he read on this topic was ERE....

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jennypenny
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by jennypenny »

I think there's acknowledgement of ERE when asked, but many of the FIRE people also give off a hint of smugness because they've figured out how to do ERE without all the hard work. ;)

While I agree that a prolonged downturn will cull the FIRE-only herd, they aren't the only ones with a false sense of resiliency because of an over-reliance on one type of capital. Proenneke would have been toast the minute he broke his leg, a prepper won't have anyone else to rely on if they hoard their stockpiles, and a social group can't kumbaya its way out of a food shortage.

I wish them (the FIRE group) well, but I prefer a more balanced approach.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by ThisDinosaur »

jennypenny wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:36 pm
they've figured out how to do ERE without all the hard work. ;)
...
I wish them (the FIRE group) well, but I prefer a more balanced approach.
Stated another way, both groups are optimizing for quality of life. But the ERE group includes antifragility as a QOL value.

I dont blame anyone for wanting shortcuts. If they are real, you should take them. That's just good sense.

jacob
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by jacob »

Well, one group did the kind of hard work that resulted in a six-figure net of tax income that allows a 50%+ savings rate w/o too much effort(*) on the spending side.

(*) Other than the psychological scars of not spending in accordance with the expectance of their peers :mrgreen:

The other [ERE] group did the kind of hard work that stretched each dollar 2-4x further than the median consumer which allows a 50%+ savings rate while still enjoying a median consumer lifestyle. This w/o too much effort on the earnings side.

Insofar those two overlap, one can FIRE in 1-2 years instead of 5-10.

It is fair to say that the former approach (salaryman) is fairly specialized and market-performance dependent and the latter (renaissanceman) is if not antifragile (depending on systems design if any) then certainly not as fragile.

prognastat
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by prognastat »

The ERE lifestyle is a hard sell to the mainstream though.

A good example would be my soon to be ex-wife, although not the biggest reason for our divorce the struggle of getting her to even accept spending more similar to MMM was already something I couldn't convince her to agree to and this despite her being considered a relatively financially responsible individual to most.

If MMM levels of spending to her was seen as an unreasonable amount of "sacrifice" how do you think she would see ERE? What about the majority of people that are even less financially responsible than her?

Even if ERE is actually much less fragile and more achievable to the average person it's also not something most under the influence of social expectations are willing to strive towards.

oldbeyond
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by oldbeyond »

Isn't this fairly typical for social movements in general? You have the avant garde who are brilliant authors of systems but perhaps somewhat stark to the general population, and then there are popularizers. And then suddenly there are people who identify strongly with "the movement" who haven't even heard of JLF/Solanas/Lenin(not making any value statements here folks). In ecological terms you have different niches/a succession. No offense to jacob but the people in the video are superior marketers, while jacob dwarfs them in the intellectual arena.

Looking at the bright side, having upper middle class people doing median spending and saving 50% into index funds is at least a big step in the right direction. And I'm not just saying that because I'm a closet MMM:er playing at being hardcore to hang out with the cool kids. At least I'm not buy and hold vanguard funds. Please don't steal my lunch money.

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Seppia
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by Seppia »

ThisDinosaur wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am
My inner permabear says this is more evidence of an impending market crash.
This, and the fact that many in the FIRE community have not at all "fired*", but have basically switched jobs and turned professional bloggers.
If you look at how some of the blogs are written, promoted, etc it's clear what the end goal is: selling a product.

It's only my impression, but it seems to me that there are clearly different approaches:

jacob clearly wasn't thinking about how to "market" his blog. he discovered something interesting and wrote about it to pass knowledge along.
there is clearly no "marketing" effort (think about the way the blog looks, the formulas in the book, etc). So the message is 100% pure.

MMM kind of "stumbled" into an income producing blog. it was clear from the beginning that he was trying to be funny/cool and appeal to people (I see a clear marketing effort), but I don't believe he expected the whole thing to explode in his face as it did. The message rings true.

others (frugalwoods is a good example) saw what was happening in the blogsphere and clearly set off from the start with the idea of making money. The message rings about as true as the typical TV/print AD.

This is why the I find the first type of blogs to be very interesting and instructive (I would put Tyler's efforts in the same bunch as jacob's), the second type of blogs to be kind of interesting (I liked MMM for the fun read it provided), and the third type of blogs to be extremely boring.
I may be wrong obviously.

This movie seems to me like it would fall in the third category, I look at the trailer and I just don't think "I want to watch it" (I have to admit I find the girl from frugalwoods to be especially detestable so her presence may have an impact on this)

*I am not part of the "retirement police", but one thing is "I am financially independent so I do what I like, and since I like to be productive and useful to society this sometimes leads me to perform activities that are normally thought as work", and a different thing is "I am going to pimp up this blog so I can change careers and become a blogger"

slsdly
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by slsdly »

From a total spending point of view, you would think me a poor adherent to the forum's creed. However most of it is rent. Without it, I'm about 1.3 jacob. If I owned a home, I would say 2 jacob is within reason without changing anything else. I failed to solve the housing problem, partly for lack of trying and desire to live with others I don't already know and trust, but I'm still working in one of the most expensive geographic regions in Canada -- I have high hopes for improving the efficiency of my post employment phase. Maybe this is just an excuse I tell myself to keep reading here :|.

What consumes my thoughts on ERE these days is not directly money but my ecological footprint. Flying twice yearly with work is my single biggest footprint, and although I've tried to worm my way out of it, the pressure remains to accept it. At least at home I've largely given up animal products besides eggs. After eliminating the job/most of the flying, It seems like I would need to grow some of my own food to reach to the world's target for CO2 emissions? (Unfortunately the estimate calculators I've used don't break down how much of those emissions come from transportation, fossil fuel derived fertilizers, etc, so I'm not sure if that would be enough.)

BRUTE
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by BRUTE »

Seppia wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:33 pm
MMM [..] was trying to be funny/cool
trying

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

“bad ass”

Lucky C
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by Lucky C »

jacob wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:20 pm
Insofar those two overlap, one can FIRE in 1-2 years instead of 5-10.
I've found the process of "normal" frugality to ERE to be a long evolution (in fact I'm still not truly at the ERE level), where it takes many years to go from a good solid income and modest frugality skills (on track to FIRE in about 15 years) to a very high paying salary with much improved personal finance efficiency (on track to FIRE in about 2 years - but it took several years to get there). It would be unlikely to FIRE in 1-2 years with a high-paying salary right out of college, even if hearing about ERE on day 1 of the career, without having built up ERE-type mentality and skills for several years beforehand.

One could start out of college in a high paying field in terms of average salary, but as an entry-level more like a $60k salary with typical 5-figure student loan and auto loan debts and no ERE-compatible skills. Then with no knowledge of ERE principles, the best one could expect is taking the first couple of years just to pay off all debt and start to get some meager savings. Then comes a few years where income and savings are accelerating, but not really feeling life-changing as savings tick up into the 5-figure numbers. Finally after about 5 years, with 6-figure savings accumulating with only basic common-sense frugality, the question of "what should I do with all this excess money?" arises and soon after the question is answered when the MMM blog is discovered. Then it takes a few years beyond that to reach a major FI milestone, say $400k for $16k spending at 4%, after 8 years of work.

Now in this (autobiographical) example, the bare minimum FI hurdle has been crossed, but perhaps a wife has entered the picture and now FI for the lifestyle of a single guy in his 20's living in an apartment doesn't seem to cut it. One may want to achieve FI at a household level now, with a wife who is still working on paying off student loans. Then there will be kids in the future and the desire to buy a house with cash in a hot housing market. No worries though, now income is > $150k for the couple, so it only takes a few more years to get up to around $550k plus a house, which should be sufficient at a 4% withdrawal rate. So it took 11 years for the couple to become FI, but you could also count it as 8 years to achieve FI the first time and 3 years to do it a second time. This shows how much different skill levels (for both career and frugality) and different starting balances in one's accounts can dramatically change time to FI.

Of course now the FI goals can continue to evolve. It's much safer to shoot for a sub-3% withdrawal rate, and now we're both part-time workers so it will take a while for us to get there...

classical_Liberal
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by classical_Liberal »

...
Last edited by classical_Liberal on Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jin+Guice
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by Jin+Guice »

Haha man, everyone on here is such a hater of other FIRE blogs. I sincerely doubt that FIRE will go mainstream, it's just too different than the current paradigm and most folks are uncomfortable stepping out of that paradigm. Even before I discovered FIRE I had trouble talking to "normal" people because their beliefs are too different from my own. I would be happy if FIRE did go mainstream though, provided it kept its integrity.

When I was "homeless" I thought everyone would become homeless and then I'd be screwed. It was just too easy to live on other people's couches and sleep in subways and parks. Everyone got $2,000/ month apartments instead.

I was also surprised to find out that Vicki Robin inherited money. I'm glad Dominguez didn't because this would have ruined the idea before it was sold to me. Now I don't care.

FWIW I think MMM is an important part of the FIRE community. I get the sense that a lot of people on the forum think he's fake or in it for the money or something. I would've never adopted FIRE or reexamined ERE without MMM. Sometimes selling the idea is important. The ERE book was too dense for me as an introductory text. This forum has changed how I read self-help books, but back then I was extremely skeptical of them and simply looked for reasons to reject them. ERE was the first PF book I read that didn't require a mid six figure annual income. However, I was skeptical due to the lack of investment strategies and initially I thought our dear leader was just bitter about getting paid a low salary as an academic. I thought about the book a lot after I read it but would never have reexamined it without badassity.

Here's a proposition for you, though it's not exactly what he preaches, MMM is ERE.

I'm much less fond of the frugalwoods. I mean, like, are they even frugal?

I tried to find another FIRE blog after I read ERE, MMM and MadFientist. FIRE really isn't that deep of a subject though and those three cover it from pretty much every angle. Once I realized ERE is a deep subject I started rereading the book and hanging out over here. I would be pretty amped if ERE became mainstream though I'd regret the inevitable decline in the quality of this forum.

arcyallen
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Re: FIRE reaching Critical Mass

Post by arcyallen »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:37 pm
... initially I thought our dear leader was just bitter about getting paid a low salary as an academic...
Now THAT'S funny!

FWIW, I'm quite sure MMM is still spending his $27k +/- a year. He's making hundreds of thousands, but that's not what he's spending. I'm not a big fan of crapping on anyone (which is why I avoid his forums), and I think that MMM is top notch. I hear he's read...a little...of Jacob's bitter writings :)

Ron

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