David Collum year in review

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Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Dave Collum
@DavidBCollum
My week on Twitter
246 blocks, 29.1K "you sucks", 3 likes , 18 mutes, 4 ligma.

2019 Year In Review, with plenty of @gilberto’s favorite zero-hedgy flavor.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/2019-yea ... ew-part-1/

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

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ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

I like this guy's analysis; though, this year there seemed to be proportionally more culture war stuff. The thing that particularly stuck out for me is "easter worshippers." That was an exact description that also emphasizes the religious nature of the people being attacked, but still, it was decried as an anti-Christian slight. I don't need the principle of charity to find that one iffy.

JMG, being an otherwise reasonable individual, also signal boosts the occasional culture war tempest-in-a-thimble, so I'm beginning to suspect that people can't touch the stuff without losing their minds a bit. Culture War Derangement Syndrome is a thing.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I guess if you got fired in the midst of the #MeToo witch hunt you might think differently.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

It's always possible. But I have some confidence that I could still differentiate between people who are on my team and points that make sense.

It's possible for The Enemy to be right every once in awhile, and it doesn't serve one's cause to try to change the definition of right just so another trivial point can be scored.

Note that I speak of this from being on the team (conservative), at least in terms of general principles.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

It could be said that Dr. Fisker was paranoid about getting deported. I was paranoid about my livelihood after being told “You will never work again.”

I think what happens in the wake of next recession/depression (when, not if) will determine a lot. In a state of chaos people are going to listen to a lot of bad ideas and right now giving up civil liberties for centralized control seems like one of Generation Y’s favorite ideas.

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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by jacob »

This year's review had an oddly weird choice of subjects.

I noticed the strong ZH flavor and maybe that's partly to blame. In my opinion, ZH was more insightful back when there were only a few Tyler Durdens and they mainly stayed within their field of competence (investment banking) instead of now having multiple Durdens attempting to become a dominant player in the conspiracy theory orbit.

(It's increasingly apparent that agents/wonks are more defined by 1) what they don't read than what they do read; and 2) who is reading their writing than what they're writing. I'm surprised that Peak Prosperity is still hosting although I guess it's tradition at this point.)

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Guys, we are sitting with inequalities approaching robber baron era levels, with the added caveat that surveillance technology controlled by the government is a thing. A dude on the forum just created a thread saying we should have a Fucking Social Credit System here like in that bastion of civil liberties, China. We fade conspiracy theory at our own risk.

I could see why you might have wanted more financial analysis, but as we are in Year 11 of the bull market he said “I have beaten the Overvaluation analysis to death. Everything from last year applies, but now it is even worse. Moving on.”

I do not even suggest that I agree with all he says. But everything must be questioned. Weren’t people on this forum suggesting that the only reason that we have Trump as president is because of “RUSSIAN MEDDLING”?!?!?!?

ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

The method of conspiracy theories is to take some circumstantial evidence and spin a story about how The Enemy is doing something nefarious in a coordinated manner. Now the truth is, they might be. A lot of conspiracy theories often contradict verifiable facts (e.g. no Sharia law in Dearborn; I've been there), but there are some which do not.

I think of when my parents called me to say goodbye because Obama was about to launch a nuclear attack on Russia. I couldn't immediately disprove that one. But somehow it didn't make any sense to abandon the city that night because the stories just keep coming.

People keep on about "they might be true!" but there is zero method for sorting the legit conspiracy theories from the bullshit. And a sizable chunk have you cowering in a basement or gearing up for armed insurrection if you actually took them seriously.

ffj
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ffj »

@MI

Frontline did a good segment on AI recently:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dZ_lvDgevk

Watch what China is doing to it's citizens. No thank you if I have a choice. Do we though?




@ZAF

A good conspiracy theory really makes you think of all ramifications of whatever subject you are studying. If one enters into it with a healthy skepticism and a standard of evidence, then they can be quite entertaining and even enlightening. The current practice, or at least in its elevated form, of denigrating every inconvenient fact as a " conspiracy theory " is truly a tragedy. It's such a lazy way of refuting something.

Check out the Epstein segment of Collum's review. Now that is interesting.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@ffj

The Epstein thing is indeed questionable and worth a close investigation. Though, obviously if the conspiracy is true, the investigation won't bear much fruit for the same reason Epstein has officially committed suicide.

From a practical consideration, it's trivia. Something to kvetch about. Or maybe the idea is to go do the Pizzagate investigator thing. Whatever floats your boat. My personal strategy is ERE at some point. If the rich and powerful are getting you down, do your part by not being part of a system designed to enrich and empower them.

Second, you bring up a good point about skepticism. There is a nice little heap of questions surrounding Epstein's death. But for whatever reason people can't seem to help themselves. Today they are asking reasonable questions about a suspicious suicide; tomorrow they are reading Bible codes to figure out what the libs and cucks are gonna try next. It's a clear motte and bailey situation in terms of what people actually do.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

It is not easy to know the line where having personal agency ends, and Rendering unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s, begins. The line moves and we may or may not have a say in it. For some, personal agency includes defending and pushing that line.

I would much rather people concern themselves with civil liberties and sound money rather than debate the merits of a Flat Earth. The motte and bailey cuts two ways. When defending sound money/civil liberty/masculinity/myself I get the Flat Earth label tossed at me. Pretty easy for people to ape the media talking points when the rich and powerful want them to, and being dismissive of conspiracy theory just enables the neat categorization of anyone who wants to think independently as someone who wears a tin foil hat.

Also, when discussing conspiracy theory surrounding legitimate concerns, it is not necessary to mock the Bible code readers so as to disassociate yourself from them. Thou doth protest too much.

Jason
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Jason »

We live in a world where the supra-narrative is global management (an impossibility BTW) and a sub-narrative of meta-personal identity i.e. taking a selfie and blocking anyone who doesn't like it. We have lost any semblance of a middle meeting room. It's French Revolution. Not populism. It's the untenable paradox of a desiring to live according to an abstract universal political/social/cultural ideal that protects unlimited and unchallenged individual identity/freedom. It explains the preponderance of conspiracy theories and a thread originating in the West espousing China's social policies as a moral template for the rest of civilization. People need a tangible home somewhere between the transcendent "We are The World" and immanent Facebook "likes" for their Thanksgiving dinner. Otherwise they fill up the infinite gulf with conjecture and fantasy. That being said, I do believe the world banking system is out to get me and probably you as well.

IlliniDave
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by IlliniDave »

ffj wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:15 am
... The current practice, or at least in its elevated form, of denigrating every inconvenient fact as a " conspiracy theory " is truly a tragedy. It's such a lazy way of refuting something. ...
This does seem to be common. Many things labeled conspiracy theories in the everyday discussion really aren't conspiracy theories. It's like the storytellers have a coin they flip when faced with pesky facts: one side is "debunked", the other is "conspiracy theory". It's probably all deliberate obfuscation: some conspiracy theories are debunked, some conspiracy theories rise above the theoretical, but with the feedback in the echo chambers set too high whatever truth there was gets washed out in the noise. What better way to hide your conspiracy than to make everything a conspiracy theory?

ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

Maybe it's because I only hang out in conservative, or at least conservative-accepting, places, but I rarely hear conspiracy theories getting shouted down in an overly aggressive way. What I do see a lot of is a lot of hair-brained bullshit thrown in among the good points. Apparently it is standard practice now to let those slide lest the team not get its point across.

@MI

By motte and bailey I mean that people defend the merits of conspiracy theorizing based on legitime concerns (e.g. Epstein), and then two minutes later it's the Islamic-Atheist-Progressive agenda being discussed. Sometimes there are legitimate concerns and sometimes it is just mudslinging and crackpottery. Hopefully, each case can be considered individually and then categorized according to its validity.

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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by jacob »

This is a 2015 paper https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... ajps.12234 that discusses motivated reasoning in terms of political knowledge, trust, and ideology.

To summarize; conservatives are more motivated conspiracy endorsers than liberals. I suppose this surprises just about no one. However, here's where it gets interesting: As knowledge increases both liberals and conservatives are less likely to consider/bring up conspiracy theories that doesn't confirm their ideology(*) thus indicating a self-awareness of the consequences of their beliefs for/to their cause. However, with more knowledge conservatives become more likely to endorse conspiracy theories that confirms their ideology, whereas this effect does not exist for liberals. When it comes to trust, that is believing that the world is not a nasty place out to get you personally, high-trusting high-knowledge conservatives will dial down their conspiracy endorsements to that of a low-knowledge conservative (why you don't see much CT in conservative "establishment outlets" like Wall Street Journal and National Review). A high-thrusting high-knowledge liberal (you know, the [coastal] elite) is even less likely than a low-knowledge liberal to endorse conspiracies.

(*) Hence my comment that it's usually more interesting to observe what people don't bring up.

Overall, this entire study makes sense and confirms what we're seeing here while also explaining ZH and Collum's choice of subjects---at least statistically. ZH ranks very high on knowledge and pretty low on trust---this also defines your average libertarian; or at least those who are knowledgeable enough to be vocal. Also why we even have a 100+ post thread on conspiracy theories.

This may also explain why high-knowledge high-trusting (establishment) conservatives will let the more bizarre conservative CTs slide (since it's all for a good cause) whereas high-knowledge high-trusting (establishment) liberals will try to curb the enthusiasm of the more bizarre liberal CTs (because facts matter). The CT about the DNC stealing the vote from Bernie in 2016 comes to mind.

On a side note, I'll advance the "conspiracy theory" that this kind of research has been weaponized as an active political strategy over the past few years. The statistical fact that there is a difference in kind between conservatives and liberals also explains why their respective politicians pursue different political strategies to manipulate their base. To wit, conservative politicians can promote CTs directly to their respective wonks and media network outlets who will happily amplify the message. This does not work on the liberal side because the wonks would seek to attenuate the crazy. Here it would make more sense to communicate CTs directly to the liberal low-information voters.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@Dr. Z

If I recall you’re from Utah or something so your bias makes sense. I’m from the Northeast where if you as a white guy look at a woman from the corner of your eye for 3 seconds you nearly get blackballed from Corporate America so I have had the complete opposite experience.
jacob wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:25 pm
A high-thrusting high-knowledge liberal
Can we stop talking about polyamory for one goddamn minute?

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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by jacob »

:lol:

ZAFCorrection
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@MI

That is correct but I was more referring to internet activity. The forums here, for instance, are fairly amenable to conservative viewpoints, and for bonus points they are also almost completely off the radar. Even if one is all about fighting for the team, nothing is going to be lost if people here call out the odd bullshit, conservative-supporting conspiracy theory.

ffj
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Re: David Collum year in review

Post by ffj »

@ZAF

"If the rich and powerful are getting you down, do your part by not being part of a system designed to enrich and empower them."

Agree totally, and you are preaching to the choir. Entertaining conspiracy theories could absolutely be a waste of time, but I would argue that it gives you context and more often than not there is some uncomfortable truth to be unearthed. That's the fun part.

Check this out. This is before the blue dress:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh1eQxjG6Lg

It is a beautiful example of why people weaponize the term conspiracy theory. Watch the whole video even though it is long. We need people to go to the conspiratorium. Bonus irony of Matt Lauer performing the interview.



@jacob

"A high-thrusting high-knowledge liberal (you know, the [coastal] elite) is even less likely than a low-knowledge liberal to endorse conspiracies."

Haven't we just experienced the last three years of these high thrusters pushing everything from hookers peeing on Trump to Putin shutting down our electrical grid? Rachael Maddow (Rhodes Scholar) made a nightly show of it. My point here is that this is not limited to people who believe Obama is a Kenyan Muslim. Don't forget Keith Oberman either. :shock:

I think we have passed the point where we can make a distinction between a liberal or conservative conspiracy theorist.

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