Are you saying you're consistently hitting 10-15% above s&p index every year for the last decade? If you are by all means point me to your learning materials.
No. 10 years ago i thought i knew everything. Around 4 or 5 years ago i started leaving the cave and i still learn something new every day.
I basically read every paper about stock market anomalies i can get my hand on. Quantpedia is a good place to find them, for example https://quantpedia.com/Screener/Details/52. I test strategies with portfolio123.com.
@Augustus - No, fromni is looking forward from the current point in time. High CAPE means that expected market returns are near 0% or even slightly negative---you can plot CAPE vs 10 year returns to see this. The market can proceed in two ways (and other trajectories in between)---lest this is an statistical outlier and things just keep going up. The extremes are a flat non-volatile market that just goes sideways (like the 1970s)... or a market that drops 50% and then comes back up (like the 2007-2015) period. It's very hard to beat a bull market (2009-2018) actively without leverage ... it's a lot easier to beat a range-bound market because mean-reversion (value methods) work.
The extremes are a flat non-volatile market that just goes sideways (like the 1970s)... or a market that drops 50% and then comes back up (like the 2007-2015) period. It's very hard to beat a bull market (2009-2018) actively without leverage ... it's a lot easier to beat a range-bound market because mean-reversion (value methods) work.
I tend to look more at total real return (reinvested dividends), and after a flat '70-'72 there was a pretty steep drop in '73-'74 (>50% iirc) followed by the balance of the decade being pretty normal (~6-7)% real. But there's a huge difference between then and now wrt the dividend yield. I think at the bottom of '73-74 the dividend yield on the SP500 was something around 8%, so even ~flat real prices produced a pretty good return.
Of course I don't know whether that has any relevance to stock picking/trading strategies people are referring to, but it is why my own outlook is a little more dismal. Prices are much higher now. By today's standards nearly everything was a value stock then.