What if we get a Japan scenario?

[Kriegsspiel]

I'm just really diversified. Because I can't tell what the fuck is going to happen.

[jacob]

@Kriegsspiel - So you're saying that beyond the usual suspects of Wall Street products, you also own about 50 acres of farm land, an interest in a fishing boat, a collection of rare coins, a bed&breakfast, 10000 pounds of copper, a selection of guns, a producing nodding jenny, plus 40000W worth of uninstalled PV panels, or something like that? I am of course being facetious here; ... but maybe not, considering what people have preferred to invest in, in the past or elsewhere. You only need to go back to the US at end of the 1970s after about a decade of paper-investment misery to see what people were coming up with.

Most famous is probably the Alpha Strategy (a barn sized building filled with future needs, like toilet paper and sneakers). However, popular at the time were stamps, art, ... Of other "interesting" ideas, I've seen is people buying underground storage tanks of gasoline and then selling fixed/price inflation hedged gas. All of these sounded quite reasonable at the time.

[Kriegsspiel]

Well... gold, various Treasuries, worldwide stocks. Permanent Portfolio + VT, essentially. (1) guns/ammo, and I've got cash set aside for buying real estate (fixer-upper residential) within a year, and the skills/tools to do it. If house prices crashed where I'm looking, I'd be goddamn pumped. I figure whatever the "it" is, I have something that's going to go up, plus some cash to buy real estate, which should flow with each other.

It's probably not coincidental you mentioned panels. Didn't John Michael Greer say that was the only way to "save" ancient sunlight for later use?

[Gilberto de Piento]

When it comes to popularity, an investment-class (like, say, equity, college educations, stamps, ... ) go from "nobody would ever invest in that/what is that anyway" over "everybody knows that this is the best class, now the question is what is the right mix" (e.g. "everybody needs a college education, but which one is best?") or ("I want to start investing: Which stocks(*) should I buy?") and finally topping out with the proverbial taxi-driver giving detailed tips.

Careers work like this too: "What is the internet?" "OMG! Everyone should be a web developer!" "What is a database?" "OMG! Everyone should be a data scientist!"

You can see this on the individual stock level too.

Thanks for the explanations, I think I get it now. I am really surprised that the answer is "be in what's popular" though. I thought it would be more technical, but I don't disagree.

In the midwest where land and warehouse space are cheap I've run into a few people who have some of their money invested in more unusual assets: precious metals, trees, art, collectibles, building materials, musical instruments. The problem with these items (except the metals and trees) is that during the great recession they dropped in value at least as much as stocks and houses. Money could be made buying them low at that time and selling after the recovery but they did not work as a hedge.

[Farm_or]

I love the ocean analogy. I have been pondering it since. These are exciting times to be an investor.

All of the movement has me reviewing and reevaluating my own ideas. You can read so much, watch so much and listen. But when something is bottom line human controlled, you have to expect unexpected volatility. Like the ocean?

I'm only partially sure of one thing - the strength of the current is a very important consideration for both index and individual investors. I think your play calling should be defensive on high tide and offensive on low tide.

But who's to say what the tide is, how much water is in the ocean, and what celestial forces are influencing the depth?