What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

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Dragline
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Dragline »

jacob wrote:@RealPerson - Well, the perfect individual solution really depends on where each and every person is coming from in terms of income, skills, and temperament. There's no one-size-fits all or copying-a-solution for success. This is why I wrote the book as a strategy guide rather than a how-to plan or a personal anecdote.

[SNIP]

As it happens, my current networth is 119.4 years of my spending. Give me a few days I can throw a quarter million USD or 8 hip fractures at random problems. And yes, I have umbrella insurance ++.
Hence, the REAL ERE formula:

1. Live on lentils until rich;

2. Buy umbrella insurance to insure supply of lentils and replacement joints. :lol:

TopHatFox
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by TopHatFox »

@Jacob, how has your choice of insurance (all types, including behavioral) more or less progressed from when you first started your accumulation phase to now (Financial Abundance Stage)?

At this point in the ERE strategy, I find myself exploring the Preventing Catastrophe and Post-FI plans/ Abundance stages (since I already know how the income and expenses stages work), so this is very interesting to me.

Did
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Did »

@realperson Your post rang true for me. I was the high flyer. I had not saved a fortune by normal standards, but I had just climbed the greasy pole to be earning one. It did seem like madness to quit, and my debt made it doubly impossible. Burn out and internal knives made it easier to do, and I made massive changes to clear the debt and free myself at 38. My advice to high earners who have not burned out is to not quit but save as much as possible and set yourself up for a long term low cost lifestyle (ie not compete with peers). Plenty of time after to look for berries but you are right - depending on your niche it might be hard to save cash collecting berries post ER so you might as well make hay while the sun shines.

jacob
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by jacob »

@Lazo - There hasn't really been much of any progression. I never treated insurance like rocket science (unlike taxes or financial planning). Basically, I've been able to come up with $5000 for an emergency since I was 24, so insurance plans reflect that (deductible). I'm mostly concerned about liability and tort-reform. Umbrella was added for that reason since our NW began to exceed the liability on other insurances. In the US, it seems that people can sue the bejesus out of you and win outrageous sums for the silliest(*) of reasons, e.g. they tripped over your dog, then stumped their toe on your sidewalk, you served them coffee without warning them that it was very hot, ... Behaviorally, my focus is just naturally (since forever) on what could possibly go wrong rather than the more common combination of obliviousness or "don't worry, be happy".

(*) Relative to the mindset of other countries.

@Did/RealPerson - Yeah, just to clarify my long rant: There's clearly a scale of job-enthusiasm that goes somewhere from "can't wait to go work tomorrow" to "I like my work" to "I don't really mind it, but it could be better" to brownout and then to burnout, which is similar to clinical depression meaning that there's actual "medical damage". The closer one gets to the right hand side of the scale, the more the present and long-term costs go up, so add these into the income to get the "real income". If "real income" is still high, by all means keep drawing it. What we're seeing in this thread is likely different experiences along that scale.

The other thing I wanted to say is that I'm not sure whether it's really a binary choice between either that high-income job or focusing on side-gigs. There's probably a scale for that too going somewhere from "I just show up at work and do just enough" (e.g. Gervais type loser) to "I spend all of my time and energy at my work; I even sleep under my desk". Some professions may lean more to the right in terms of work-life balance that there's no life left. If there is life left (in my case, there's always been 1-2 hours per day and sometimes up to 6 or 8), that's where I've focused my side-gig effort. Also here I haven't thought of the side-gig as an investment. However, I have considered it under the constraint that it should be able to become one. For example, for many years, I've thought about getting into machining. However, I haven't done so for the reason that startup costs are large ($3000); the time investment is equally large (before you can make anything beyond a toy cannon); and it's generally not very useful. Whereas something like bike repair scales all the way up. This just means spending spare-time deliberately on something that could be useful and doing it in such a way that it keeps developing. E.g. if you're a software engineer making $100k, why not try dabbling on Mech Turk just to try even if it's only $4/hr or something. I'd do that just to verify that I could. It's the verification and the potential that's important. Not the money per se.

Did
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Did »

side note: no berries for me for a while. fell badly yesterday and broke typing arm.

BRUTE
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by BRUTE »

:(

here's to increased bone density after the bone fuses back together.

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Ego
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Ego »

Sorry to hear it. Hope you heal quick.

bryan
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by bryan »

jacob wrote: win outrageous sums for the silliest(*) of reasons, e.g. they tripped over your dog, then stumped their toe on your sidewalk, you served them coffee without warning them that it was very hot, ...
Just in case you are referring to the infamous McDonald's case, in which the public (ignorantly) and media put it up as an example of frivolous litigation, let us remember that it was a jury case and through due process after both sides argued and presented evidence the judgement and damages were rendered. Punitive damages are just that, meant to get corporations to reform instead of just settle out of court or take the calculated risks which are bad for public safety, welfare.

I recommend the documentary made about it (talking of tort reform): Hot Coffee.

Probably best not to use the "hot coffee incident" as an example of why tort reform is good, imo.

RealPerson
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by RealPerson »

jacob wrote:If "real income" is still high, by all means keep drawing it. What we're seeing in this thread is likely different experiences along that scale.
Fair enough.. Hypothetically, let's say you made $400,000 per year in your job and you enjoyed the core activities of it, but not necessarily the peripheral stuff such as office politics and unreasonable demands from people, etc. Maybe your overall assessment of your job would have been "I don't mind". If that would have been your situation in astrophysics, would that have changed the decisions you made?

jacob
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by jacob »

@bryan - I'll agree to disagree. I think it's an excellent example. 160k in compensation damages (that's about the same as three people each losing their leg in other countries) + 2.7M in punitive damages. I think that completely fails the proportionality test, i.e. something like an eye for an eye, not a hundred eyes for an eye just to make an example. Maybe it's not tort reform per se as much as it's a favorite American national sport to sue everybody for everything and often having to pay up ridiculous sums of money that are way out of proportion with the actual damages. However, I accept that this is the way tradition is, hence the liability insurance.

Reddit illustrated it well:
"In my government class, we brought in an American lawyer and a German lawyer. My teacher asked "Okay, say a family takes a child to the zoo. The child is sitting on the ledge, falls into the cage and is eaten by a bear. Explain what legal action would be taken.

"American lawyer: "The zoo would be sued for an unsafe facility, the bear would likely be put down and the zoo would probably have to pay a penalty.

"German lawyer: "Everyone would think the parents were idiots for putting their child on the ledge of a bear cage. They might even have to give the zoo compensation for bad publicity. It's kind of a common sense thing." — PinkieDash1321
@RealPerson - 400k is so far out of my experience that I can honestly not even relate. It translates into a savings rate of 98%+. I'd work six months to hit the 4% rule. After a year, my SWR would be 2%. After 2 years it would be 1%. I think at some point I'd really start wondering why I'm putting up with anything just to have enough money to last for the next 250 years or the next 400 years or something at that order of magnitude. What I mean is at that point it has long ceased to be a monetary calculation.

I've never been in a situation where I have not liked my work and I haven't been FI already. So I consider myself fortunate in that regard. Subsequently, I've quit my jobs when I've felt thoroughly uninspired doing them for 6-12 months. That's long enough to verify that the fire/creative spirit is gone. Almost all the work I've ever done has relied on being able to come up with novel ideas. That's not something I'm able to sit down at a desk and do if I don't like it anymore no matter what I'm paid. That's the main criterion for me. I can deal with a certain amount of BS (as long as it doesn't require any creative efforts ... and such things usually don't) so it's not BS that has made me quit.

I will also acknowledge that there can be a certain joy to merely collecting money or keeping score for its own sake. Or maybe one can have grand plans to buy a city or start a charity thrust or something. But as a pure FI measure, I think working for the sake of more money (or perceived safety) gets really hard to justify past 1% SWR. At that point it's not a question of whether there's enough anymore. It becomes a black swan question which can no longer be hedged with additional money.

BRUTE
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by BRUTE »

Liebeck's attorneys argued that at 180–190 °F (82–88 °C) McDonald's coffee was defective, claiming it was too hot
Liebeck was taken to the hospital, where it was determined that she had suffered third-degree burns on six percent of her skin and lesser burns over sixteen percent. She remained in the hospital for eight days while she underwent skin grafting.
jacob can imagine what would've happened if she had taken a sip from that coffee. if it caused 3rd degree burns to the legs, what would it have done to her mouth?

brute isn't an expert, but would think that most coffee doesn't cause 3rd degree burns when spilled onto humans. it also seems like the $2.7m was reduced to $640k.

maybe this is a good example of why small countries/homogenous cultures are easier. in Denmark, no court would give a $2.7m fine. but in Denmark, coffee shops very likely have the common sense not to serve coffee in paper cups through the drive-thru that will send humans to the hospital.

edit: huh, brute wouldn't have thought that $400k was so far out there for jacob. don't quants earn in the 1/4 million range? roughly how much did jacob earn as a quant?

jacob
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by jacob »

@BRUTE - I brew coffee at 94C/201F. What happened here is that she put the cup between her legs in the car trying to get the lid off, then spilled the coffee all over her jogging pants, which soaked it all up, and then sat in it for the next 15 seconds (she was old or the seatbelt was on or whatever). Burns is a combination of temperature and exposure. If you take a sip of a hot/near boiling liquid, you'll go uh-uh-hot-hot-hot and put the cup down by reflex. It does nothing to the mouth (because exposure is under 0.5 second) unless you stick your head in it for multiple seconds.

In a small country or in a homogeneous culture but more importantly in a culture that is not the US, it would at best be considered an unfortunate accident on part of the driver because common sense dictates that you don't play around with coffee cups in your lap while in your car. In this case, it was ruled 20% driver's fault and 80% MCD's fault. Elsewhere, it would be ruled approximately 100% the driver's fault. See German Zoo example above. Similarly for drinking hot liquids---it's assumed that humans who buy hot liquids should know how to drink out of a cup without harming their GI tract. That's my opinion too.

Again, it is what it is and I accept that. Therefore I carry liability insurance. Aside from assigning fault, the other issue is the award. Now in this case it was reduced to $640k which is still more than an order of magnitude than what this would have resulted in elsewhere. I don't know what the compensation for suffering burns and needing treatment for two years is in other countries, but I do have some representative numbers if you lose an arm or a leg in some accident and the award for that is about $50k/limb. Basically, the attitude towards these things are entirely different outside the US. You have an accident abroad and it's just considered part of life. Shit happens. You get some money to carry you trough for a while. Conversely, if you have an accident in the US, you could be set for life.

I'm not sure I can disclose my exact salary (I'm too lazy to read through my nondisclosure) but general salaries for a junior analyst in a small firm is around 60-90k + 0-30k bonus + free pizza. This range covers what I was paid. The salary is pretty much intended to be industry-competitive with what someone with general numerical skills can make in similar tech industries and not a pot of free gold. So quants make about the same as software engineers, not surprisingly, since most quant work is programming, depending on where they work and what they work on. So to make a quarter mil in software engineering you probably have to be a senior team leader at Google. Similarly, to make a quarter mil as a quant, you're looking at a VP with 3-5+ years of experience working at Goldman Sachs in NYC. Neither are representative of what quants or software engineers make in general.

BRUTE
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by BRUTE »

jacob wrote:You have an accident abroad and it's just considered part of life. Shit happens. You get some money to carry you trough for a while. Conversely, if you have an accident in the US, you could be set for life.
yea, there's that "an outrage, something needs to happen!" thinking that politicians have, too. maybe nothing needs to happen. how often do people need skin grafts from drinking coffee? almost never. maybe it's nobodies "fault", and maybe almost everybody ever will be fine drinking coffee like before.

brute is usually sympathetic with victims in the individual cases (like the McD coffee lady), but there is an unfortunate long-term effect, with everything slowly becoming more expensive and pussified. it's been illegal to set residential water boilers "too high" for quite some time now, meaning that clothes and dishes can't be cleaned with hot water. humans are forced to buy and pay for safety/security crap that statistically, 99.9% of them will never need in their lifetime. the TSA is a similar example. dividing number of terrorists that flew by plane by number of annual flights in the US must be approximately zero.

jacob wrote:general salaries for a junior analyst in a small firm is around 60-90k + 0-30k bonus + free pizza. ... Similarly, to make a quarter mil as a quant, you're looking at a VP with 3-5+ years of experience working at Goldman Sachs in NYC. Neither are representative of what quants or software engineers make in general.
brute needs to stop getting his information from novelizations.

Peanut
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Peanut »

I remember in the McDonald's case that there had been hundreds of complaints by customers about the temperature of their coffee prior to the incident in question. I think that paper trail and McDonald's failure to address the issue both had an impact on the final assessment.

I have no problem with 640k, but some of that has to do with it being McDonald's. But then I can't believe losing a limb is valued by insurers at 50k, that seems insanely low.

The zoo example is timely given what happened in Ohio? recently where the kid fell into the gorilla pen and the gorilla got shot. People were at odds about whether the zoo or the parents should be held primarily responsible. After going back and forth I tend to agree with my DH that the zoo was playing russian roulette with barriers that could easily be breached by a child. Eventually something was going to happen. Doesn't mean parents are totally absolved but frankly I also didn't understand why everybody gave the kid a total pass. He was 4, his mom said no, and he went in anyway.

McTrex
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by McTrex »

vezkor wrote:I was surprised to see Pete bought a brand new electric car, last week. A little bit of me died, inside, but I'm sure his next post will explain why! ;)
ERE.
You can come back to life now, here is his explanation: :)

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2016/10/ ... ctric-car/

bryan
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by bryan »

wow, that's some insane rebates/incentives. Any idea of if the battery form factor and connectors will be pretty standard long term? Why can't there be an electric cargo van? I would move to a different state to buy one if I could get rebates like this (adding to my list of things to check before I leave a job where I am in a high tax bracket)...

Did
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by Did »

Re new third car bought out of 400k income from frugality site - that's why I hang out here.

BRUTE
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by BRUTE »

+1

ThisDinosaur
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by ThisDinosaur »

Yeah, its increasingly hard to relate to M cubed. I wonder if his multimillionaire status will distance him from his readership to the point he loses all that website income.

TopHatFox
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Re: What is your FIRE number? Your expected FIRE expenses?

Post by TopHatFox »

Yeah, I like the extremeness around here, talking about vagabonding, van living, and dumpster diving in post-apocalyptia is cool :D

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