Brexit

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chenda
Posts: 1481
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by chenda »

I'm really saddened and a bit scared by this result, today has felt a bit unreal. I was surprised (though weirdly comforted) by how much anger there was on my Facebook feed this morning; mostly youngish professionals who see their rights and EU citizenship been taken from them.

It's possible that the UK could negotiate some special arrangement which keeps it a de facto member of EU; in fact any deal is likely to be a long way from the leave camp rhetoric. (In theory it could not leave - the referendum is not legally binding and most MPs support remain)
The worse case senario though is catastrophic.

Either way, I'm applying for Irish citizenship tomorrow.

IlliniDave
Posts: 2968
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by IlliniDave »

Sorry, if I'd have known how strong feelings were with our UK-based ERE-ers, I would have held off on those two questions.

Back to investing side, I made it through the day without taking any action. I'm revising y guesstimate to be I'll probably be down 3.5%-4% for the day. Next week should be pretty interesting.

CelticTiger
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2010 12:04 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by CelticTiger »

chenda wrote:Either way, I'm applying for Irish citizenship tomorrow.
Come on you boys in green!!!!! Cheer us on on Sunday against France!!

I was born in Northern Ireland and hold an Irish passport and can obtain a British one if required and would easily pass visa requirements, if introduced. Do you reckon dual nationality or even just obtaining an Irish passport will be of real benefit?

BRUTE
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Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

radamfi wrote:I don't see why honest British people should be punished for the actions of the Leavers. Why should I be denied Freedom of Movement when other Europeans get it? I wish I was never born in England. It is not my fault I was born here.
radamfi can thank democracy.

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Ego
Posts: 4809
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Ego »

The New Yorker cover, Silly Walk Off A Cliff

Image


Based on the classic....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV2ViNJFZC8

Dragline
Posts: 4449
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Dragline »

Good discussion.

Note, the Economist reports that Brussels (the EU) does not consider the vote to have any legal effect until the UK actually notifies them of its intent to withdraw, and then this process will take some time. This means that as individuals, you may have time to make some arrangements, either moving yourselves, your assets or disposing of certain property. I believe this IS an historical, "move your ass, you'll be glad you did later" kind of event if you think you will be affected. The value of property in the UK is particularly likely to decline for two reasons: (1) declining population; (2) declining financial sector, which means all those rich foreigners throwing money around may start leaving. On the other hand, if you live there and want to buy, I'd start converting to dollars in savings and then wait for a good deal.

As the old song goes (I know the version by The Pogues): "Navigator, navigator, rise up and be strong. The mornin' is here and there's work to be done . . ."

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fiby41
Posts: 1303
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Location: India

Re: Brexit

Post by fiby41 »

British voters have made the dramatic decision to leave the European Union. There could be possible echo effects within Britain – for instance, Scotland might once again try to leave Britain. Other countries in the EU could also decide to go their separate ways.

What does this watershed event mean more broadly? Here are some thoughts to ponder:

1. There is a crisis of myth in many parts of the Western world (including the USA) and it has reached the tipping point in Britain. The old narratives of greatness have crashed. The British Empire died long back. The British have continued living their myth of being a world power, but this is becoming less sustainable:

. They felt pride that they gave democracy and the English language to the modern world. However, other civilizations are increasingly asserting their place in world history.

. Their grand narrative of aristocracy is premised on the royal family’s pageantry, and this royal myth has anchored British tourism.

. After the economy became deprived of the loot from colonies, North Sea oil filled the gap for a few decades. But this oil is largely depleted.

. London is a financial hub of the world, and this fits the traditional British role as world class merchants and middlemen. But the technology now makes it possible to decentralize this into remote locations; the Amazon generation is comfortable doing transactions via video conferencing without physical meetings in a central location. Will London’s financial district fall prey to what we may call the Uber-ization of the financial industry?

. One of the most significant disruptions has been the flood of immigrants who are people of color. They tend to be more pragmatic and selfish and do not share the British myth to the same extent.

2. The delicate and artificial equilibrium holding Britain’s myth of greatness has been eroding and now it has crumbled. Its values and principles are just not sustainable.

3. As a result, there is xenophobia against people of different races, religions, etc., especially when take the jobs away from those who feel they are the “real” sons of the land. The latest crisis reflects a challenge to postmodernism. Localization is gaining ground at the expense of globalization.

4. During each such crisis of myth in the past (in USA and Britain) there has been a period of chaos and experimentation to try and reformulate the myth with the new realities.

It is too soon to predict how far this domino effect will go and what the new world order might look like. The news today is mainly defensive – how to protect one’s investments.
The Death of Britan

bryan
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Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Brexit

Post by bryan »

Did anyone watch Assange, others? Have a summary (it's 7 hours on the night of the vote)? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kASShAK1ksI

What hope is there for the EU, other than kicking out all the politicians with built up political capital in the current system? What is the best way to "short the euro" (maybe just ignore it since I'm not too exposed to it anyway, USD being the likely safe haven for now)? Maybe EU stocks will tumble and they become attractive targets (increasing exports).

thrifty++
Posts: 1088
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by thrifty++ »

I am not sure about the doomsday scenarios. It seems like people express them every single time a change happens but they dont come to fruition. Recently China and also before that Grexit, but also before that countless examples of people predicting the same with every change. Britain has a huge amount going for it. Britain has contributed more significant innovations that have transformed the world than any other country in history and arguably has also contributed the most to the creation of modern civilisation. It has a robust, sophisticated and powerful economy. I think it will be fine after the bumpy patches. There does not seem to be any reason for the UK to collapse aside from leaving the EU (if that is even a reason). I have not researched the matter in detail but surely there must have been some economic pros to UK leaving - more liberty around decision making, less inefficiency and red tape, less bailing out of failing states. The rest of the world shouldnt hate UK for leaving that seems unfair. There are many other countries that have many reasons to collapse which I am more concerned about - like China.
Last edited by thrifty++ on Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:18 am, edited 5 times in total.

thrifty++
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Re: Brexit

Post by thrifty++ »

I keep seeing the Permanent Portfolio referenced all over this site. Would someone be so kind as to explain what it consists of?

saving-10-years
Posts: 554
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:37 am
Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

Its a very illuminating discussion. Thanks for the perspectives beyond the UK. Apologies to @iDave and others for causing some unpleasant temporary ripples (I very much hope temporary) in ERE portfolios.

@fiby41 Its a poll (not the same as reality), you might also notice that it records the voting behaviour of 91%-84% of those who they asked. As 'only' 72% voted then some of those they asked made up an answer. I am not inclined to rely @YouGov polls as other than indicative.

However you raise an interesting issue. Is your argument that as we age and gather experience people should get less weighting to their vote? Or perhaps like a bell curve as they age they get more weighting until they hit 40s/50s (where they are voting on behalf of others too young to vote, their children) and then decline as they retire? I sort of like that idea. Any ideas of how to implement it?

Thanks to @Ego for the laughs. Yes, that is what it sort of feels like. But we did it anyway. The problem is that the UK very nearly didn't do it. The vote was very close so I am fully aware that there are a lot of people in my country who thought this was mad, bad and voted against it but now have to live with it.

@ Dragline. Definitely staying and not sure why the population would decline. Can you explain? EU immigration won't cease (or I don't expect it to) and its under half the current total. http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statist ... statistics

@Bryan. Seven hours is too long but the impact on the EU is the interesting and worrying question. Its one of the things that made me waiver in how to vote. But then I can't see how to make the EU work by remaining in either. Perhaps it works fine and its only a UK perspective (of slightly more than half of the referendum voters) that it does not.

@BRUTE Succinct and accurate as always

@ thrifty+++ Thanks for that.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

saving-10-years wrote:Thanks to @Ego for the laughs. Yes, that is what it sort of feels like. But we did it anyway. The problem is that the UK very nearly didn't do it. The vote was very close so I am fully aware that there are a lot of people in my country who thought this was mad, bad and voted against it but now have to live with it.
Why should I have to live with it? If you had any compassion about what might happen to your fellow UK and EU citizens then you wouldn't have done what you have done. Certainly, EU citizenship should be available to any UK citizen on demand.

You still haven't addressed my point about whether you have the right to imprison me in the UK.

You even don't care about imprisoning your DS in the UK.
Last edited by radamfi on Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

CelticTiger wrote:I was born in Northern Ireland and hold an Irish passport and can obtain a British one if required and would easily pass visa requirements, if introduced. Do you reckon dual nationality or even just obtaining an Irish passport will be of real benefit?
What if he wants to live, work or retire somewhere in Europe? Yes, he might get in if he asks politely, but with an Irish passport you can walk in whenever you want without any questions.
Last edited by radamfi on Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:07 am, edited 2 times in total.

radamfi
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Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

thrifty++ wrote:Britain has a huge amount going for it.
Britain doesn't have as good public transport as most other European countries and UK public transport is much more expensive. It also doesn't have anywhere near as good cycling facilities as the Netherlands especially and Denmark, Germany, Belgium, Finland and Sweden have better cycling too.

saving-10-years
Posts: 554
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:37 am
Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

@radamfi
You still haven't addressed my point about whether you have the right to imprison me in the UK.

You even don't care about imprisoning your DS in the UK.
My son had a vote and used it. We voted on different 'sides' but he is not angry with me and does not blame me. As @BRUTE says this is democracy.

I don't have any right to imprison anyone and neither did I intend to do this. You or any others. You may not have the same rights to move freely in Europe in two or so years time but you are already FI and you would clearly like to live elsewhere. Surely you have the freedom to do this. I hope that your plans to leave work out.

If my DS wants to live and work in an EU country after graduation he will need to earn the right to live there (skills, qualifications, application, economics) rather than being automatically entitled to live there - same as if he wants to live in the USA or other non-EU destinations.

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fiby41
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Location: India

Re: Brexit

Post by fiby41 »

@saving-10-years: radamfi said that it was the 'old and uneducated' who voted leave while 'young graduates' voted stay. So I thought it'd be useful if we had some indicative numbers.

Regardless of age or education, we don't know how many Britons actually knew what they were doing as the search term 'What is the EU?' spiked on Google trends UK after Brexit.

skintstudent
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:52 am

Re: Brexit

Post by skintstudent »

@radamfi

Perhaps you should start appreciating how lucky you are to have the problem of being "imprisoned" in England. By accident of birth you have ended up in one of the wealthiest nations on earth, allowing you to amass enough to be FIRE. It could be so much worse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1tJJO_pVvQ/. That video is tongue-in-cheek - in or out of the EU, all of us in the UK have been extremely fortunate in our birthplace.

IlliniDave
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Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by IlliniDave »

thrifty++ wrote:I keep seeing the Permanent Portfolio referenced all over this site. Would someone be so kind as to explain what it consists of?
I think there are several variants of it, but the basic one I am familiar with (for US investors) is to divide your investment assets equally between stocks, treasury bonds, treasury bills, and gold. The idea came from Harry Browne as a way to invest that minimizes the occurrences of portfolio losses (when measured annually I believe). Full disclosure: I do not have a PP-style portfolio.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

skintstudent wrote:Perhaps you should start appreciating how lucky you are to have the problem of being "imprisoned" in England. By accident of birth you have ended up in one of the wealthiest nations on earth, allowing you to amass enough to be FIRE. It could be so much worse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1tJJO_pVvQ/. That video is tongue-in-cheek - in or out of the EU, all of us in the UK have been extremely fortunate in our birthplace.
The UK sucks compared to most of northern/western Europe, though.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

saving-10-years wrote:I don't have any right to imprison anyone and neither did I intend to do this. You or any others.
But voting Leave implies that you either deliberately wanted to block freedom of movement or didn't care if that block occurred. You are obviously intelligent so you must have been aware that end of freedom of movement is a likely consequence of voting Leave. If we are lucky, we might get a Norway-type relationship with the EU (if that will be the case, why leave the EU in the first place?) but we now have a couple of years of sleepless nights ahead.
saving-10-years wrote:If my DS wants to live and work in an EU country after graduation he will need to earn the right to live there (skills, qualifications, application, economics) rather than being automatically entitled to live there
I can't believe you seriously wrote that you are happy with putting potential barriers in the way of your son's future happiness. Unbelievable.

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