Brexit

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radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

stayhigh wrote:That's true, because European Union in it's current form (Lisbon Treaty) was officially created four years later in 2009. As you can see, Netherlands didn't want to accept it in this form (as EU constitution is ridiculous). It mean Dutch society is not happy to be part of it. I was sure this is well known fact. Same happened in France in 2005 by the way.

EU as a free market is good idea. EU as a political project is not.
Voting on the EU constitution is very different to an in/out referendum, surely you can see this?

bryan
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Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Brexit

Post by bryan »

radamfi wrote:
bryan wrote:Netherexit in early 2017 - after election, a referendum to leave EU seems likely
Where is your evidence for this? They have proportional representation there so unless the PVV get a majority on their own (unlikely), the other parties could form a coalition to block it.
The PVV are leading at around 35% and have been rocketing up. For now I think the people are pretty evenly split about a NExit. So what happens in 2017 will be determined by what events occur (UK/EU/terrorism/US) before then.

> Would they seriously want tariffs or border controls, or lose the ability to live elsewhere in Europe?
Yes/No.

ducknalddon
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

Brexit didn't just pop out of nowhere, there has been a long and continuous campaign by right wing politicians and the media to get there.

Ydobon
Posts: 412
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:15 am
Location: Scotland

Re: Brexit

Post by Ydobon »

In the wake of the EU referendum, the value of my pension and tax privileged accounts have bounced up as the pound is devalued vs. other currencies such as the dollar (I'm nearly 100% equities at this point, the majority of which are US/European/EM).

Do I count this as a positive for my NW position (no plans to leave the UK), but a negative if I want to go on holiday, ship good from overseas etc.?

I am finding it difficult wrapping my head around the fact that numbers have gone up, but the indexes that I am investing in all appear to have gone down!

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

@Ybodon - The international indexes have gone down a bit as well but not nearly as much as the pound. In your case,

Positive for your NW position, because you're selling assets that are worth more now. Negative if you want to go on holiday or buy/import stuff from abroad, e.g. you shop at amazon.com, because you're buying with GBP that are now worth ~10% less.

If you want an idea of the "absolute" damage/gain, convert your NW to EUR or USD and compare before/after values. You can use oanda.com for exchange ratios by the date.

Ydobon
Posts: 412
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Location: Scotland

Re: Brexit

Post by Ydobon »

Thanks Jacob, good shout re. absolute values.

Dragline
Posts: 4449
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Re: Brexit

Post by Dragline »

Fascinating analysis from my favorite demographer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDPyNk7EH1k

saving-10-years
Posts: 554
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:37 am
Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

Very interesting - thanks @Dragline. It is (as Howe says here) like 5D chess at the moment. So it is very difficult to get a hold of what will happen now. So its good (as someone who struggles with 3D chess) to hear someone with global knowledge make points that played into my own decision and on-going analysis.

Theresa May has announced that she will stand for Tory leader. There is a lot to be gained from having her rather than Boris Johnson. She was part of the Remain group but she was also regarded as being a reluctant member of that side. She is state-school rather than Eton-educated and I am expecting (hoping) that she will triumph over Boris. YouGov (which in leadership predictions has a good record of predicting outcomes) puts her 10 points ahead of Boris.

If the leadership contest for Labour comes out in favour of Angela Eagle we will have two female leaders of the main political parties, or for Scottish voters three as they also have Nicola Sturgeon. Hm.

ducknalddon
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

The politics is interesting, Brexit was won at the extremes of the political spectrum where as elections are won in the middle. Those people the Tories and Labour need to appeal to in the next general election are exactly those that voted to stay in the EU.

skintstudent
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:52 am

Re: Brexit

Post by skintstudent »

@ducknalddon

Given that more than 50% of the population voted to leave, they'll have to appeal to them too. It's also highly presumptuous to correlate stay with the middle ground as your post implies. Some of the views most extreme views amongst the people I know were staunch "remainers". Extreme socialist views seem to be accepted. Of course this is all relative - the people I am thinking of would not think that their views are extreme.

ducknalddon
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

Perhaps I shouldn't have used the word extreme, but certainly the left and right of the spectrum.

BRUTE
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Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

what brute found interesting in that video is that in the mediterranean countries, the anti-EU parties are far left wing (syriza, podemos), whereas in the UK and France, they are far right wing (UKIP, FN).

saving-10-years
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Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

@BRUTE Opposition to the EU is also found in the UK in the left (some would say extreme left) wing of the Labour party, e.g. Denis Skinner (no accident that Bolsover, his constituency, voted 70% leave). This is partly why there has been anger at Corbyn whose lack of pro-Remain fervor in the recent campaign has been taken by some to be a sign that he wanted out of the EU more than remaining with it (he was pro-leave was in the past).

I realise that the UK press would give the opinion that its only right-wing folk who voted to leave but the demographic data does not stack up. There was a pretty diverse crew in the leave camp. Strangest bedfellows.

heyhey
Posts: 113
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Location: Herts UK

Re: Brexit

Post by heyhey »

But Brute is right that the anti-EU party in the UK is on the far right wing. Obviously many individuals who wouldn't have voted for that party did vote to leave, because they thought leaving would be better for themselves/their families/communities or even the country as a whole, regardless of how they would have voted in an election.

I think the reason for the anti-EU parties being extremists of both sides in various countries is because leaving the EU will allow more extreme laws to be passed. Countries that leave the EU will no longer have to abide by EU rules on anything from human rights to fishing restrictions. That is essential for an extreme left or right wing government, while middle/liberal governments have less issue with EU rules, since the EU tends to be liberal. For individuals this is only one factor among many, but for political parties I think it is key.

Of course, if the EU government became dominated by extremists of either kind, the position might change ...
Last edited by heyhey on Fri Jul 01, 2016 5:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

saving-10-years
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Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

Ah yes, UKIP. Apologies @BRUTE, thanks @HeyHey for pointing out.

UKIP as the single-issue UK political party that has been most associated with anti-EU sentiment is on the far right. Agree. It would be wonderful if they would simply fade into the background now we have the result they wanted.

ducknalddon
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

saving-10-years wrote:Ah yes, UKIP. Apologies @BRUTE, thanks @HeyHey for pointing out.

UKIP as the single-issue UK political party that has been most associated with anti-EU sentiment is on the far right. Agree. It would be wonderful if they would simply fade into the background now we have the result they wanted.
They are on the far right but they do seem to have made inroads into Labours voter base, which is very strange really. One of my sons friends is a UKIP voter however if you knew anything about his background he should be Labour through and through.

stayhigh
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2015 4:20 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by stayhigh »

radamfi wrote:Voting on the EU constitution is very different to an in/out referendum, surely you can see this?
Well, both nations said the same thing - we don't want to be part of European Union.

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

heyhey wrote: I think the reason for the anti-EU parties being extremists of both sides in various countries is because leaving the EU will allow more extreme laws to be passed. Countries that leave the EU will no longer have to abide by EU rules on anything from human rights to fishing restrictions. That is essential for an extreme left or right wing government, while middle/liberal governments have less issue with EU rules, since the EU tends to be liberal. For individuals this is only one factor among many, but for political parties I think it is key.
(my underline)

I almost agree but I have a slightly different framework for extremist parties(*). Judging by Danish political party history, resistance also concentrates on both wings. Historically, on the left side, the most extreme party was previously quite eager to go join the Soviet Union. On the right side, the party wants a new era of nationalism and they had quite the love-affair with Nazi Germany pre-WWII. Today they're substantially toned down versions of their previous selves. I don't know if that desire is specifically for extreme laws. It could be more a question of which particular supranational org the party wants to join?!

(*) Single-issue parties (like UKIP?) aside.

heyhey
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:17 pm
Location: Herts UK

Re: Brexit

Post by heyhey »

jacob wrote:I almost agree but I have a slightly different framework for extremist parties(*). Judging by Danish political party history, resistance also concentrates on both wings. Historically, on the left side, the most extreme party was previously quite eager to go join the Soviet Union. On the right side, the party wants a new era of nationalism and they had quite the love-affair with Nazi Germany pre-WWII. Today they're substantially toned down versions of their previous selves. I don't know if that desire is specifically for extreme laws. It could be more a question of which particular supranational org the party wants to join?!

(*) Single-issue parties (like UKIP?) aside.
Do you mean all political parties would ideally wish to join a supranational cluster organisation, a bit like individuals seeking to be part of a community, and the European middle-of-the-road parties' chosen group is the EU, while the extremists are currently without convenient clusters to join in Europe but would create them if compatible extremists managed to take power in relatively close countries at the same time? An interesting (and rather scary) idea and you may well be right!

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

To those leavers who just say "get a visa", I had a look at the Netherlands immigration rules for people coming from outside the EU/EEA

https://ind.nl/en/individuals/residence-wizard

there is no option for people who just want to retire, and so not interfere with the labour market. You have to work or study or have 1.25 million euros.

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