Brexit

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Egg
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:59 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Egg »

ducknalddon wrote:They are on the far right but they do seem to have made inroads into Labours voter base, which is very strange really. One of my sons friends is a UKIP voter however if you knew anything about his background he should be Labour through and through.
This article may go part way to explaining that. https://thegerasites.wordpress.com/2016 ... th-gromit/

Basically, in my view Labour has turned its back on the working class, and is now full of self-righteous middle-class "progressives" who cannot comprehend, and therefore sensible engage with, viewpoints much removed from their own. This is a massive turn-off for their traditional voter base.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Egg wrote:Basically, in my view Labour has turned its back on the working class, and is now full of self-righteous middle-class "progressives" who cannot comprehend, and therefore sensible engage with, viewpoints much removed from their own. This is a massive turn-off for their traditional voter base.
It is a problem with the stupid voting system. In most countries you would have separate socialist and centre-left parties but because of the First Past the Post system you can't have more than one left party that overlap too much with each other, because if they did they would split the vote too much. So Labour needs to be a very broad church between people with very differing views. Similarly for the Conservative Party.

BRUTE
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Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

other countries also have stupid voting systems. brute hasn't seen one that wasn't stupid.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

I see no leaver has disputed my earlier post from today about Netherlands immigration. So do you admit that some British people that would have been able to live in Europe may not be able to do so in future? And are you happy about that?

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »


radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

jacob wrote:@radamfi - See my earlier post: http://forum.earlyretirementextreme.com ... 02#p120202
Cheers, sorry I somehow missed that post. Could be useful in the years to come.

Still it looks like there's no direct route to the Netherlands, which is where I actually want to go. The Hungary option might be good for non-Europeans however UK citizens can live in Ireland which should stay after Brexit as that arrangement predates the UK and Ireland joining the EEC. Living somewhere for 5 years as a sort of "purgatory" is a massive inconvenience, to say the least.

ducknalddon
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 5:55 am

Re: Brexit

Post by ducknalddon »

radamfi wrote:It is a problem with the stupid voting system. In most countries you would have separate socialist and centre-left parties but because of the First Past the Post system you can't have more than one left party that overlap too much with each other, because if they did they would split the vote too much. So Labour needs to be a very broad church between people with very differing views. Similarly for the Conservative Party.
We might be about to get that if Labour can't hold itself together over the next few days/weeks. Still have a problem with the voting system though, I've always been in favour of a proportional system although UKIP has made me wonder about that.

Egg
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:59 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Egg »

radamfi wrote:I see no leaver has disputed my earlier post from today about Netherlands immigration. So do you admit that some British people that would have been able to live in Europe may not be able to do so in future? And are you happy about that?
I think it's fair enough that you shouldn't be able just to retire to the Netherlands without having put anything into their system. You said you can't move there unless you study or work first. There's your answer. Go and work there for a bit, and do your bit to help the country you want to support you with their public services. So to answer your question directly, yes I am personally comfortable with you not being able to waltz into the Netherlands just to retire.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

Egg wrote:I think it's fair enough that you shouldn't be able just to retire to the Netherlands without having put anything into their system. You said you can't move there unless you study or work first. There's your answer. Go and work there for a bit, and do your bit to help the country you want to support you with their public services. So to answer your question directly, yes I am personally comfortable with you not being able to waltz into the Netherlands just to retire.
I've already worked for 20 years while Dutchmen have been able to "waltz" into the UK so I feel I've already done "my bit".

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

There may be hope. It looks like Belgium allow Americans to retire as long as they pay their way:

http://unitedstates.diplomatie.belgium. ... ng-belgium

You could move to Baarle-Hertog so you would effectively be in the Netherlands. (Baarle is a geographical curiosity where there are parcels of Belgian land inside the boundaries of the Netherlands).

BRUTE
Posts: 3803
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

radamfi wrote:I see no leaver has disputed my earlier post from today about Netherlands immigration. So do you admit that some British people that would have been able to live in Europe may not be able to do so in future? And are you happy about that?
so a decision was made that was not pareto optimal. considering that the status quo wasn't pareto optimal (some people were against it) nor was the original decision to enter the then-EU, brute is surprised by radamfi's continued insistence that other humans have hurt him, without acknowledging that his decisions and wishes have/would have hurt them.

radamfi
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:46 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by radamfi »

BRUTE wrote:so a decision was made that was not pareto optimal. considering that the status quo wasn't pareto optimal (some people were against it) nor was the original decision to enter the then-EU, brute is surprised by radamfi's continued insistence that other humans have hurt him, without acknowledging that his decisions and wishes have/would have hurt them.
As I said earlier, leaving has a direct and clear negative impact. Whereas the downsides of staying are far less easy to quantify.

But you do raise a good point where we agreed on another thread. It is impossible for people with different opinions to be satisfied simultaneously, which should make people think twice when bringing people into this world.

The Old Man
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:55 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by The Old Man »

radamfi wrote:There may be hope. It looks like Belgium allow Americans to retire as long as they pay their way:
http://unitedstates.diplomatie.belgium. ... ng-belgium
It can also be done with Ireland under Stamp Zero (RE Persons of Independent Means).
http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/Stamp%200

Egg
Posts: 139
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:59 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Egg »

radamfi wrote:I've already worked for 20 years while Dutchmen have been able to "waltz" into the UK so I feel I've already done "my bit".
Unless those 20 years were in the Netherlands, I disagree that you've done "your bit" for the Dutch. The British, for whom you have done your bit, are presumably more than happy for you to retire here. You just don't want to, but that's your problem not the Netherlands'. If the UK is such a shitty country, 20 years is a long time to take realising it. Arguably you should have moved abroad long since if that's how you feel.

As for the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit, I honestly don't understand all the fuss. To quote Seneca:

What I advise you to do is not to be unhappy before the crisis comes; since it may be that the dangers before which you paled as if they were threatening you will never come upon you; they certainly have not yet come. Accordingly, some things torment us more than they ought; some torment us before they ought; and some torment us when they ought not to torment us at all. We are in the habit of exaggerating, or imagining, or anticipating, sorrow.


Maybe the UK/world is going to shit, maybe it isn't. Why beat yourself up twice, though - once by worrying and once by experiencing?

jacob
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Re: Brexit

Post by jacob »

@Egg - In terms of reactions, this is the usual one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model ... but Seneca is appropriate since he was forced into exile---an event which he took well.

Dragline
Posts: 4452
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Dragline »

Egg wrote:As for the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit, I honestly don't understand all the fuss.
I don't think this particular fuss actually has that much to do with Brexit, which appears to be more of a trigger than a cause.

BRUTE
Posts: 3803
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 5:20 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by BRUTE »

radamfi wrote:As I said earlier, leaving has a direct and clear negative impact. Whereas the downsides of staying are far less easy to quantify.
but as brute already mentioned, just because one decision has a clear and negative impact doesn't mean the other decision is better - just that the impact might be more indirect and less clear.

this reminds brute a lot of what some humans say about divorce. "but divorce is terrible!". sure, but no good marriage ever ended in a divorce. at the point when humans consider divorce, staying married is likely the worse option.

Chad
Posts: 3863
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Brexit

Post by Chad »

Dragline wrote:
Egg wrote:As for the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit, I honestly don't understand all the fuss.
I don't think this particular fuss actually has that much to do with Brexit, which appears to be more of a trigger than a cause.

Agreed. A lot of the reaction to Brexit is the reaction to other things along the similar path of a smaller world. This includes Trump, which is probably why I actually, as an American, had a rather emotional reaction to Brexit. This isn't normal for me, especially for political decisions in another country. Though, it was probably because a Trump presidency actually felt possible after the "Leave" vote. If the UK can leave the EU, and probably not be the UK any more (If I were Scotland I would ditch Britain hard and make Edinburgh the new London.), then president Trump is possible (I will never capitalize it.). It feels like such a step back, not as much as a president Trump, but still a step back.

A president Trump or candidate Trump is just one more chapter in my book, "The Worst Generation."

saving-10-years
Posts: 517
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:37 am
Location: Warwickshire, UK

Re: Brexit

Post by saving-10-years »

@Ramafi, @Egg, agree with Egg here. Ramafi seems to have a dream* which is now not available and he is angry about this. This is undeniably sad for him and for others with similar dreams, to travel and settle where they wish in the EU. Ramafi appears to blame others, who voted in line with what they felt that they, their community/family, or country needed, or against what they felt was the bigger threat to the UK long term.

(*Ramafi I am calling it a dream rather than a concrete plan because I am not sure whether you would have or could have acted on this and quit the UK for Netherlands on the terms you suggest given their stay in the EU long term is itself uncertain. You say that you do not have a passport, property in the Netherlands, and have not got a definite timescale for moving, so its sounding more wish/dream than definite plan. It is still be possible to do as you want but undeniably more difficult. I hope your plans work out.

@Chad
Would Scotland leave the UK? The Scottish referendum vote was a relatively close one. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/scotla ... es/results 55% in favour of staying in the UK. Note that post Brexit many of the Remain voters (c. 4 m?) have urged the government to make the rules of a referendum 60% majority of 75%+ turnout. Would those new rules be applied to In/Out referendums?

It is notable that in the 2014 Scottish referendum the government offered all sorts of last minute incentives to Scotland to stay united and this worked. In the recent EU referendum Cameron negotiated the best deals he could with Europe, but these were seen at home as temporary and far below what he needed. When it looked like a very close call on the Brexit vote (polls similar to Scotland vote in 2014), the EC President Junker made clear that there was nothing else that would be done (no more carrots whatsoever) and wielded his 'out is out' stick. He sounded firm and not at all regretful. This did not help Remain.

For Scotland the economics of leaving the UK are now less favourable than in 2014 and the EU is changing post-Brexit. I don't feel that its a more positive camp to remain with (or join) than I did when I voted last month - in fact less so. Scottish voters may think differently. Of course UK politics are becoming a joke so we have yet to see who will lead our negotiations and also what the mood about these will be in the EU when the dust settles.

The Remain camp had all the best cards. They were least risk and what all main parties urged us to vote. Leave had a number of jokers leading its campaign (I definitely did not vote on the basis of the leadership offered there), there was tragedy (Jo Cox) which spotlighted some of the extreme views on the Leave side and an overall lack of preparedness. Yet 52% voted in favour of Leave. Not all racists, in fact I would say overwhelmingly not, but disaffected and without a sense of power. Yes the UK will get things wrong in the future and may have got things wrong with this vote, but in the future they will be able to make their own decisions on how to get out of the hole. I hope.

Is this what is happening in the US? I don't think so but its a warning that the disaffected can do surprising things and accept strange bedfellows to achieve regime change. Its not a matter of taking Trump seriously so much as taking seriously the fears and aspirations of the people who are looking to him. You have a different range of movement than the UK government had in this (I hope). Had the EU offered an open hand or encouragement near to the vote they may well have swung it for Remain but that is not how the EU works, it can't move quickly and has to be firm to stop others seeing leave negotiations as a viable option.

Dust still settling.

Dragline
Posts: 4452
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Brexit

Post by Dragline »

Chad wrote: (If I were Scotland I would ditch Britain hard and make Edinburgh the new London.)
You know, this presents a huge (or maybe "YUGE") opportunity for speculating on real estate in Edinburgh if one knows that market (I do not). For many reasons financial institutions much prefer common-law jurisdictions to civil-law ones, so if you have an independent Scotland in the EU, it becomes a huge magnet for banks and related business and the 1% to locate there, raising everyone's boats there at once.

In an odd way, it reminds me of what happened in Colorado when marijuana was legalized -- every random unused warehouse suddenly became extremely valuable as an indoor growing space and the owners of those properties made bank.

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