Brexit

[Bankai]

This is nothing new that younger generation is mostly pro-EU while older is mostly anti-EU. Reducing this to 'old, uneducated and xenophobic' is short-sighted. Younger generation only see free movement of people and are influenced in schools to believe how good EU is. Older people who actually voted to stay some 41 years ago (UK joined by decision of government in 1973 and only held a referendum 2 years later), voted for staying in Common Market (as EU didn't exist back then) and not in a political super-structure heading towards European superstate with: growing nominated and not elected bureaucracy with president, foreign affairs minister etc, with obvious state attributes such as flag, anthem, currency, borders and plans to create European army (undermining NATO). Maybe this insight gives older folks a perspective younger generation lacks? Also, would younger people not see this as TEOTWAWKI while older on the other hand see this as returning to status quo from few decades back (or to good old times)?

Not saying who is right or wrong, just a different perspective.

Here's a link to the pamphlet that HM government sent to every UK home back then advocating reasons behind voting yes: http://www.harvard-digital.co.uk/euro/pamphlet.htm#top

[radamfi]

@saving-10-years: radamfi said that it was the 'old and uneducated' who voted leave while 'young graduates' voted stay. So I thought it'd be useful if we had some indicative numbers.

There was extensive research into the relationship between demographics and voting intentions before the vote. The cities with large student/graduate populations voted Remain the most.

[themodernchap]

I am going to weigh in with a Northern Irish perspective.

I, like most people in the 6 counties which make up Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) have dual nationality. I am both Irish and British. I have citizenship in both countries and have held both passports. At the moment I only have an Irish passport.

As a result I am one of the lucky few in the UK who, despite the UK voting to leave the EU, will still have freedom of movement within the EU. For this I am glad. I do not feel "imprisoned" as others have written.

I'm not going to get politically involved here, I do enough of that in my day to day life, but I will say that I am disappointed that the British people have been convinced by a group of right wing elites that immigration is the cause of all the countries ills. The tories sold off the bulk of the social housing stock in the 80s, they have brutally cut welfare in their time in power, they have committed to a programme of austerity economics (encouraged/required by the EU) which has taken the UK to a position in which 3 million people used food banks last year... in the 5th richest economy on the planet...

I have serious concerns about the EU, which I won't get into here, but I am much less a fan of blaming the weakest members of society (nationally and internationally) for the greed and inhumanity of right wing politics. Why is it that if I go to Australia to work, as tens of thousands from my country have, that I am considered an ex-pat when someone doing the same from Syria is considered a parasite? People want the same things, universally, they want community, to love and be loved, to be safe and free from fear, hunger, pain, to have pride and dignity. Until people recognise the oneness of humanity there is no future for our species.

Life will go on, much as before, the poor will be shat upon from a great height by the neoliberals in both labour and the conservative party, the global poor will be shat upon by neoliberalism in the global north, the illusion of choice will continue to make the electorate feel like they have some say while the rich will continue to get richer, the poorest will continue to take the blame because they are an easy target. The only thing which will change noticibly is that people will be vocally racist and xenophobic and will go unchallenged, in greater numbers. The divisions between people will deepen, in an already deeply divided country, divisons between rich and poor, middle class and working class, native and newcomer, old and young, racial tension will be heightened and exploited by the right... and all the while the wealthiest, the political class, will pile pence upon greasy pence and rub their hands with glee because they know the maxim, Divide and Conquer. Drive the wedge in deep and ensure that people remain scared and subjugated and encourage them to point the finger of blame in any direction except up.

[Dragline]

@ Dragline. Definitely staying and not sure why the population would decline. Can you explain? EU immigration won't cease (or I don't expect it to) and its under half the current total. http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statist ... statistics

The fertility rate remains below replacement at best -- this is a very long-term trend. It has been stemmed in part by immigration and the tendency of those immigrants to have more children. See http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov. ... ility.html

I would expect the UK to become a less attractive place for immigrants to go to if its not connected with the EU. Or consider the counter-question -- does the vote make the UK more attractive to someone outside?

[radamfi]

Does anyone know which EU country offers the fastest naturalisation? As soon as I acquire an EU passport I will then renounce my UK citizenship. I want nothing more to do with this country.

[jacob]

https://www.quora.com/Which-EU-country- ... quirements

Depends. Technically Poland where you just have to ask for it. If you have ancestors, there's also an easy way to citizenship in some countries. IIRC Ego became an Italian a while back(?) The main obstacle will otherwise to get residency in the first place. Options are high-powered job, marriage, business and perhaps student visas. In Hungary you can lend 300kEUR to the government for five years and from that get residency (which would give you access to the rest of Schengen.)

[BRUTE]

You still haven't addressed my point about whether you have the right to imprison me in the UK.

has radamfi considered that he has voted to imprison the other humans in the EU? that argument can easily be turned around.

it sounds like this is radamfi's first real encounter with democracy. a little like getting used to market swings and recessions by exposure, brute believes that the same is true for the de-romantization of democracy for many people. it's all fun and games until 52% of people vote for something radamfi doesn't like. then it's populism and elites and the dumb old humans.

[radamfi]

has radamfi considered that he has voted to imprison the other humans in the EU? that argument can easily be turned around.

Hardly on the same scale! Leavers have just screwed up many people's lives. Whereas remaining part of the EU does not have such an obvious and direct adverse impact on individuals.

[saving-10-years]

@Dragline

does the vote make the UK more attractive to someone outside?

Its not about the vote so much as what we do from now on. Before the vote we were arguably more attractive than many other EU countries from the perspective of immigrants from outside the EU (hence the problems at Calais) and immigration has been rather higher than we were able to comfortably cope with (in fact record levels https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... est-driver). Which is of course why this issue has been cited so often in the recent campaign.

I would be very unhappy about (and campaign vigorously against) a racist/xenophobic regime, I don't take that turn of events as a given although I understand the fear of this. I believe that the UK would still be a popular destination with net immigration gains, but not the current record levels. That might be a good thing (in England at least) given the relatively high level of population density. For comparison (source Wikipedia):

UK has a population density of 259 people per square km but
England (406 ppsk) so similar to the Netherlands (408 ppsk)
Scotland (67 ppsk) which is similar to Ireland (65 ppsk)
USA (85.35 ppsk)
Belgium (371 ppsk) and Germany (228 ppsk) are the other relatively densely populated countries in Europe.

You might like this graphic https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 15.svg.png

[jacob]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/26/financia ... itain.html

The would be relevant for people working or have plans to work in finance (especially trading and/or investment banking) and software as it relates to high finance.

[BRUTE]

brute has heard that the brexit might be bad for britain's financial industry, but good for everybody else, or more working class people there. probably not a coincidence that in England, only London voted to remain.

[jacob]

@BRUTE - As far as the US and UK metaphor/analogy is concerned, big cities tend be dominated by "young, highly educated, rich" which tend to vote in favour more competition since this trifecta benefits from "a bigger game" and "rural", being the opposite, goes the other way as it benefits from any protection leading to a "smaller game". Did you check other big cities than London?

In any case, as far as finance-people are concerned, this is the kind of vote that makes or breaks a lot of careers.

[thrifty++]

What are peoples speculations on how long the stocks are likely to stay down for and why?

[Egg]

What about our freedom to live where we want in Europe? Did you ever consider that?

Of course. I'm slightly offended by what seems to be a fairly prevalent view in the Remain camp that Brexit supporters only voted that way because they didn't think about the decision carefully enough or were too stupid to understand the irresistable arguments to remain. I assure you both that I agonised over my vote, and that I researched it to the best of my ability. I have lived in Europe before and may do so again - it is not a purely academic question in my mind, though a very secondary one to the main issues.

As for your point about the freedom to live in Europe, the migration of people has existed, exists and will continue to exist outside of the framework of the EU. Sure, it'll make it harder for a Brit to move to an EU country and vice versa, but that's hardly the end of the world.

[BRUTE]

I'm slightly offended by what seems to be a fairly prevalent view in the Remain camp that Brexit supporters only voted that way because they didn't think about the decision carefully enough or were too stupid to understand the irresistable arguments to remain.

the good old argument of "whoever disagrees with me is dumb".

[Peanut]

brute has heard that the brexit might be bad for britain's financial industry, but good for everybody else, or more working class people there. probably not a coincidence that in England, only London voted to remain.

What?? Only Birmingham voted leave out of all the major cities. Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, and London were all remain.

[chenda]

Either way, I'm applying for Irish citizenship tomorrow.

Come on you boys in green!!!!! Cheer us on on Sunday against France!!

I was born in Northern Ireland and hold an Irish passport and can obtain a British one if required and would easily pass visa requirements, if introduced. Do you reckon dual nationality or even just obtaining an Irish passport will be of real benefit?

haha oh I did!! Yes I think it could be of great benefit - essentially you will be able to keep your EU citizenship regardless if Brexit actually happens (and I am starting to doubt article 50 will ever actually be triggered)

@Brute - not just London, other prosperous urban areas in southern England like Bristol, wealthy university towns like Exeter, York, Norwich. Essentially reflecting underlying social and economic differences.

[bryan]

anyone else think there won't really be a brexit (https://twitter.com/nuttycom/status/746808436491431936)? though you have to wonder if Scotland or commerce may act too quickly.

I'm trying to figure out best way to go long pound or short euro.

[chenda]

anyone else think there won't really be a brexit (https://twitter.com/nuttycom/status/746808436491431936)? though you have to wonder if Scotland or commerce may act too quickly.

I'm trying to figure out best way to go long pound or short euro.

Quite possibly. That comment which went viral raises questions though - did Boris et al make the assumption that Cameron would actually invoke article 50 and deal with the inevitable chaos ? Did Boris assume leave would loose, but it would bolster his profile to succeed Cameron, riding in on a wave of unity and national reconciliation ?

[bryan]

Who knows what was planned or how many moves in advance. The only thing that seemed "unplanned" was the vote outcome (I mean, there was a plan for the outcome, but it was plan B). Cameron thought resigning in this fashion is the best strategic move now, for whatever ends.

All I know, is this would be a great time for Netflix to come out with a new series "House of Cards: UK"