Bitcoin on the rise

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Smashter
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Smashter » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:18 pm

Bryan should be buying aggressive native ads to push his "CRYPTO TRADING MASTER CLASS!" instead of all the other scammers I see :)

It's been fun to watch your progress, glad to hear you timed it right.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:53 am

Well, I may do a 180 on what I said about feeling better about prices..

My current hunch is also one I had a month ago (never posted here, though, and it slipped my mind since I wasn't thinking about Bitcoin daily like a month ago): tether (USDT, a token pegged to the USD to help facilitate trading on exchanges that can't actually bank or use USD) is inflating/supporting crypto prices (and might eventually blow up).

https://twitter.com/tetherprinter
https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed

Essentially, it's a pretty good probability that tether (or exchanges themselves running reserve banking..) is "creating counterfeit digital USD". Especially more recently..

I had this on my radar a month ago (people were talking about it back then, too) since it combined nicely with the idea of futures trading perhaps resulting in a crash, as those running scams or pumps have a new, solid market to hedge and cash out at. It would be interesting, though, if the schemers were actually using the futures to actually back the tethers value (give yourself fake USD, trade for real BTC, sell BTC futures). Maybe they are waiting for more volume..

I won't predict what the price will do.. but I would at least suggest keeping stuff off exchanges exposed to USDT: Bitfinex, Poloniex, Binance, Huobi, OkEX, kraken, hitBTC. (Kraken is one of the exchanges used for the CME's Bitcoin Reference Rate.) One obvious result of a tether caused crisis is those exchanges freezing accounts or otherwise none-frozen assets will be bid up (and of course it would be interesting to see if exchanges froze some coin withdrawals but not others..). I may also go ahead and realize more LTCG (up to the end of the 0% tax rate) in anticipation of a possible crash (though in fact it might actually continue to have a quantitative easing/pump/inflationary effect on prices into the future..).

edit: SEC has a letter about Bitcoin ETF yesterday: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investmen ... 011818.htm

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:49 am

Some exchanges use falcon as reserve bridge currency between Fiat and crypto. From what I understand it's same to same as tether in function.

Tether is generation 1 based on the bitcoin blockchain while falcon is a smart contract running on Ethereum so gen2.

So, tether has an incentive to fix the problem you outline, if at all it is a significant problem, if they don't want to lose their market share.

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:55 am

brute believes tether is just a scam by Bitfinex to prop up their failing exchange. he is unsure how much of that has been propping up the rest of the market, but as all cryptos seem highly correlated, it's not an unreasonable thought.

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:32 pm

Most people on this board probably don't have unreasonable thoughts :P :thinking: :lol: (better wording might be like: making a mountain out of a molehill aka attributing too much importance.. or just being wrong/mis-informed or ignorant).

$450M of new USDT supply in the last four days!! Main issue being how does the new tether get into the market.. seems like the only options are IOUs or fake money (which could be considered backed by the crypto-assets (and any actions taken by the counterparty to hedge in USD terms) after each infusion). The party doing the infusion (OK, I don't know how exactly the infusion happens.. is it exchanges or tether or both?) is betting on crypto prices being high into the future.. and because they can print USDT, they can ensure crypto prices are high in the future (unless it all explodes).. MtGox (who did something similar on their own platform, except creating fake BTC instead of fake USD (aside: less reputable exchanges probably do something like this at a small scale..)) eventually fell apart because bitcoin rate crashed (they are actually solvent now with the current exchange rate, but alas, already in bankruptcy).

Haven't heard of falcon, but certainly you could have a bunch of smart contracts that serve as a prediction market for exchange rates, futures (but as always, you rely on some oracle for the real world USD, unless you use a decentralized store of value like BTC/ETH). Major pain point since 8 years has been the on/off ramps to BTC et al. (CME, CBOE) Futures help a lot (even if they are not BTC settled and have some implementation quirks e.g. settlement price methodologies and time). Ideally we would have securities (i.e. ICO is the new IPO) being decentralized, at which point you can then write smart contracts with those as well and further reduce counter-party reliance.

fips
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fips » Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:13 am

It might be interesting to try to predict the prices of cryptocurrencies by monitoring USDT and falcon supply.
One problem might be that there are too many altcoins out there already so it's hard to predict what coins will receive the highest influx from supply increases in USDT and falcon.

Also, on the recent cooling off of the Bitcoin price, with the futures theory being an interesting one:
http://www.businessinsider.de/bitcoin-c ... ?r=UK&IR=T

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:52 am

Taleb is revered on this forum. Here's his take.

https://medium.com/opacity/bitcoin-1537e616a074

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:22 pm

What Taleb says (Bitcoin as hedge) falls under the umbrella of what I meant by "The macros still look good for BTC".

CME expiring in less than 24 hours. I would anticipate a price drop before then, but the interesting wrinkle is tether/associated exchanges willingness to print tethers (I think the first major reporting was almost a year ago: https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how- ... c711d28eb4 and now it's 7x tether supply). I don't think this was accounted for by futures traders making bets and overall it seems like a pretty spooky situation. The obvious play now is for tether/associated exchanges to (continue to?) be heavy in the futures. So price should generally rise after contract expiration tomorrow, until some new big news e.g. a tether/exchange exit event (which would cause a 40%-80% crash, I would guess).

Mostly I'm just glad I re-balanced last year when I did. If I were advising anyone who has no crypto-assets right now (that wants some), I would probably say to buy half your (planned USD allocation of) BTC in about 12 hours and then DCA the rest over the next 12 months (or lump-sum the remaining once the tether/exchange crisis hits).

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:34 pm

CME event was pretty much a non-issue, other than a small dip and bounce.
bryan wrote:
Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:22 pm
I would probably say to buy half your (planned USD allocation of) BTC in about 12 hours and then DCA the rest over the next 12 months (or lump-sum the remaining once the tether/exchange crisis hits).
It looks like I basically timed the market perfectly (mark it down as luck, again): 12 hours from my post was in the trough of the dip. Just using that prediction, you would be sitting at a +11.2% ($11.16 $10.47 -> $11) unrealized gain ;) (well actually, my advice was to DCA the second half. Jury still out.)

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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by jacob » Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:46 pm

You're not a rich genius until you've closed out your position and paid your taxes ;)

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:02 pm

Yep. And to be clear, I am not even making these trades myself (unless I said so explicitly... so how confident am I, really?). Just fun to speculate and put down as public record and maybe it will inform someone.

Robinhood will be offering ("trading fee free") crypto-currency trading.

fips
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fips » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:23 pm

Does anyone here have an opinion on CFTC's raw financial data on CBOE?

http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchiv ... 011618.htm

Both leveraged funds and other reportables are shorting bitcoin as of January 16th.

Does anyone have an idea what the bitcoin players behind "Other Reportables" and "Nonreportable Positions" are?
Once that is figured out, any opinions about on what future players would actually turn the tide?

Unfortunately, I couldn't find any comparable information for the CME futures yet.

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Fish
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Fish » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:46 pm

Here’s Big ERN’s take on cryptocurrencies. It’s rather rudimentary but I found the perspective useful. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/01/ ... urrencies/

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:40 pm

I’ve been a naysayer on this very thread. But the GREED and FOMO factors are very real.

My friend who has taken some nice profits off the board from BTC tells me February and March have not been kind in the past and have been the worst pullbacks. Do those experienced in the crypto game agree?

I’m considering making a bet on the roulette table that there are enough “hodlers” and potential for new “converts” to the crypto religion that “the macros are good.” Enough of a bet to make a difference, not so much that if it goes to zero, I’m ruined.

I still don’t believe in it. There’s no cash flow, no underlying business. It’s way too energy-intensive. But it doesn’t matter what I believe- as long as there are others who do, and are willing to reward me for having a favorable position within the “pyramid.”

Bitcoin commercials during the freaking Super Bowl? “Imhotep! Imhotep!”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb-rENuLJeg

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BRUTE
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by BRUTE » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:49 pm

brute has seen BTC peak at ~$1,500 and then drop to ~$300, where it stayed for several years. this is fine. or it might go to zero. if that distinction causes a human distress, BTC is not for that human.

Seppia
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Seppia » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:57 am

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:40 pm
I still don’t believe in it. There’s no cash flow, no underlying business. It’s way too energy-intensive. But it doesn’t matter what I believe- as long as there are others who do, and are willing to reward me for having a favorable position within the “pyramid.”
It does matter if you believe in it or not in my opinion.
With the super wild swings this asset class has experienced, HODLing is hard enough for a believer. May be next to impossible for a skeptic.
I would pass if I were you

James_0011
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by James_0011 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:51 am

Also, has anyone seen this?

https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/03/06/b ... blockchain

Looks promising

Jason
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Jason » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:12 pm

I am currently involved in an ancillary capacity with a bitcoin mining company. Coincidently, I found this article. It's fascinating to me, despite me not understanding the technology side. It really is like a virtual gold rush.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ure-217230

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bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:12 pm

Many also fear that the new mines will suck up so much of the power surplus that is currently exported that local rates will have to rise.
:lol: Reminds me of stories I hear from CA that during the last major years of droughts, some utilities had to go out and install water meters at residences (too cheap to meter before).

I didn't read anywhere in the article about opportunity cost of time between buying and using mining equipment. That's actually a main reason most of the mining is in/around China (near the manufacturers) since 2013. China leading on solar cell production helps cement that region as a good place to mine. Allegedly the largest manufacturer (and miner.. Bitmain) of BTC mining equipment profited in the billions in 2017. That puts them right with nVidia for 2017, who have done very little to anticipate/meet mining market demand since 2013.

DutchGirl
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by DutchGirl » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:54 am

In the Netherlands, yesterday an illegal bitcoin mining operation was closed ... illegal, because they were stealing the electricity.

Of course, the electricity company noticed pretty soon.

Life is better if you're not an idiot.

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