Bitcoin on the rise

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ertyu
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by ertyu »

Seppia, if your twitter dude is right, the exchange actually did WELL. They enacted breakers and let the price rebound. I think anyone who puts their money into BTC is aware that (1) it has no intrinsic value and thus it very well may go to zero and (2) that it is volatile like whoa and swings can be wild. I don't personally trade BTC, but people recommend that it be a small % of your portfolio for a reason.

It was interesting to see how it behaves in a crisis - so far, it seems to have followed the gold playbook which makes sense. To be honest, what worries me about BTC isn't that it can go to zero or even days like today. BTC people like to tell you they're being very rebellious when they use it and that it is outside the mainstream financial system. Sadly, it is not. A government may not be able to prevent me from using BTC to trade with another individual, but they may outlaw banks from interfacing with BTC. This is what China did when it realized that BTC is one of the ways people were getting money out of china, circumventing capital controls. If you can't interface between btc and a currency which you can use as legal tender, the usability of btc, be it as a store of value, medium of exchange, or speculative instrument goes down drastically. Imo this is where most people's btc rude awakening will come from.

bryan
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by bryan »

It pays to have some out-of-the-money buy orders on the exchanges, until it doesn't! There's a history of liquidity crashes/rises and it looked like it happened again (touched $4k, back to $5.6k within an hour). 24/7 trading will do that, especially combined with less liquid trade pairs (like cryptos).

Depending on how governments deal with this recent crisis, cryptos could do very, very well. It's one of the reasons I held onto some crypto even though my opinion on them had changed from when I was a big fan in 2014. My main hesitation would be that cryptos haven't found many new uses or adoption since 2017, that I've observed, other than some ethereum-based projects (I sold some BTC for ETH recently). The only bitcoin adoption I've actually seen in the last while is that pretty much any online sex-worker will accept crypto as payment.

My crypto-crazy friend asked if I was buying in after this drop.. I told'em I will probably be dollar-cost-averaging in over the next 3-6 months or so, just a small bit each time (i.e., I'm not really that interested in increasing my crypto exposure %-wise more than it was pre-crash.. in fact I'll probably end up with a lower exposure, if the prices stay where they are through my DCA re-balance).

Seppia
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Seppia »

ertyu wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:46 am
Seppia, if your twitter dude is right, the exchange actually did WELL. They enacted breakers and let the price rebound.
I don't know you, but knowing that it was close to being completely wiped out doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

ertyu
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by ertyu »

@Seppia, that is a known, though. It is a known that there is no real assets backing crypto and that its "value" is an opinion consensus. It is also known that the crypto exchanges are very very loosely regulated and all sorts of price manipulation, etc. is rampant. It is also known that on crypto exchanges there are no breakers the way there are on actual exchanges. This is information available to crypto traders who have done their research (I am not one and I still know this). In this context, what this exchange did went above and beyond. It unilaterally decided to do the right thing, i.e. engineer a "breaker" event. You are right that this event was not a given and could not have been assumed. You are also right this makes crypto markets way way way riskier than a regular stock market. People who have done their research, though, should have been informed of these risks. Yes it might go to the moon - but yes, it can go to zero also.

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fiby41
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by fiby41 »

Supreme Court ruled the reserve bank's blanket ban on crypto exchanges to be unconstitutional. Stated it promotes illegal exchanges and black markets to be unsatisfactory reason for the ban.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

bryan wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:56 am
Depending on how governments deal with this recent crisis, cryptos could do very, very well.
I have to say the globally synchronized fiat debasement has me bullish. If for no other reason than I have, with the aid of leverage already over 100% of my net worth invested in the precious metals and mining complex. Bitcoin could similarly benefit from fiat debasement if it survives, and add value to a portfolio as a deflationary zero beta asset.

I have noticed that unlike gold, bitcoin has not recovered from the March crash to its February 2020 highs and if the market turns downward again I think we would see another BTC liquidation?

And when BTC drops, it can actually be had for the lower price, unlike precious metals which are unavailable at the quoted prices after drops at this point due to high premiums.

I read this paper and it came out at a good time in late 2018 after the retracement from Dec 2017 highs to Nov 2018 lows, so the dataset is comprehensive:

https://www.politesi.polimi.it/bitstrea ... 0Asset.pdf

They have a 3-5% allocation as optimal and advocate eschewing altcoins in favor of BTC only. But you are bullish ETH?

How does the halving play?

As a speculator the best scenario I can come up with is flight from capital controls in globally synchronized fiat debasement, particularly big money in China.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Renaissance Technologies May Get Into Bitcoin Trading

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561850-r ... in-trading

Not necessarily bullish if they are just trading the volatility, and I would hate to be leveraged in the such a small volatile market where a shark like this exists. Perhaps they intend to profit from shorting as bitcoin goes to zero.

The third halving is in two weeks and the previous two halvings were followed by large up movements the following year.

The backdrop of global stock market meltdowns, eurodollar shortages, debt implosions and QE infinity make this very interesting.

giskard
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by giskard »

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:58 pm
The third halving is in two weeks and the previous two halvings were followed by large up movements the following year.

The backdrop of global stock market meltdowns, eurodollar shortages, debt implosions and QE infinity make this very interesting.
Another thing to think about: maybe in western countries we will not see many people embrace bitcoin if central banks can hold it together. But numerous countries are sliding into outright currency crisis mode.

I was reading that Lebanon's local currency already fell 50% against the dollar in the past year and people were shutting grocery stores because the currency was losing value so fast if they sold their current inventory they wouldn't be able to pay suppliers at the new prices for more.

Argentina is about to default on their sovereign debt, and I read that Russian currency has devalued 25% against the dollar. So if this trend continues I can see a lot more crypto adoption worldwide like we have been hearing about in Venezuela as people try to preserve wealth.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The moves up on days like today when the sentiment is “risk-on” and stock markets are rising tell me that at least in the short term BTC looks correlated with stocks. I do not know that the Lebanese shopkeeper or the Chilean street vendor have enough money to move the needle so my guess is there are a lot of hedge funds that are in on bitcoin from a high cost basis and that we will see more liquidations on another down move in the stock market. Staying patient and just watching for now.

Although if asymmetrical returns have taught me anything, if BTC is going to $25k or $50k or more, not buying at $8k because I think I can get in at $5k or lower is illogical.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Paul Tudor Jones announced an allocation to BTC as an inflation hedge. “Network effect” or “doing it because everyone else is doing it” now kicking in as emerging market citizens flee their own home currency devaluations.

I am preparing to jump off a bridge with everyone else. Experiencing major FOMO but the still view it as subject to declines in the next wave of broad market liquidations.

Except for two spikes in Nov 2017-Jan 2018 and Jun-Aug 2019, BTC has not broken above $11k so I will not chase at top of range.

Interestingly the returns of gold miners and BTC have been similar since mid-March.

Holding cash earmarked for BTC and/or ETH. The last BTC halving resulted in a short-term 30% decline.

Seppia
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Seppia »

I’m still convinced that within our lifetime we will look back at bitcoin and laugh

- coming from a guy who thought GE was a good buy at $12 -

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Oh, it is definitely a tulip bulb sprinkled with pixie dust, but I find the “Escape from Fiat” narrative compelling enough to have just a little bit to diversify away from the miners, to whom I already have enormous exposure. The whole world is going Argentina/Zimbabwe and if I can skim from the top of the arc of Kurt Russell’s full court heave, I will.

Image

ertyu
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by ertyu »

Paul Tudor Jones has just stated he has a position and that bitcoin reminds him of gold in the 70s. I would dump into whatever pump ensues.

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Stahlmann
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Re: Bitcoin on the rise

Post by Stahlmann »

in general it seems I didn't get a joke, ehh.

fortunately I know S1 and S2 from Kahnemann.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Scams/comments ... ay_people/

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