Global challenges vs emerging markets/global CAPE

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black_son_of_gray
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Global challenges vs emerging markets/global CAPE

Post by black_son_of_gray » Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:53 pm

The global challenges we are facing now have disproportionately larger impacts on the poor within countries and the less well developed (i.e. rich) countries rather the developed countries. Does this influence your view on investing in emerging markets? I wonder how this might affect global CAPE style funds like Meb Faber's... Do you shy away from poorer areas because they'll have a harder go of it, or do you focus on those places because they have more growth potential and might have better valuations?

Examples:
1) If oil becomes very expensive (or rationed as a part of a 'carbon budget'), won't the poorer countries suffer more economically?
2) If climate change wreaks havoc on crop yields, won't this disrupt poorer countries more?

Along this line, if the rich companies or countries can better cope with the effects of such challenges, seems like it might be better to invest in more developed or well-heeled markets, companies, or regions (even if they are relatively less attractive from a traditional valuation standpoint). Of course, I'm talking about loooong term investment outlooks - and my guess is that many people here would say that changes in investment strategies should be able to adapt much faster than these slow-rolling disasters. Just wondering what people think about how current inequalities (which have numerous reinforcing, even exacerbating, factors) will interact with global investment opportunities going forward.

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