Portfolio Charts

[jennypenny]

That was great, Tyler. I really like the part about it not just being about the money a person wants to make, but about the experience they want to have making it.

[C40]

I finally got around to playing with these charts. WOW!!! Wonderful work, Tyler. Thank you! They convey a huge amount of information. Changing the portfolio allocation is quick and easy. And the charts and the website look great. Wonderful work! This is the best utility I've seen for comparing the performance of different allocations.

[ThisDinosaur]

Tyler, I absolutely adore portfoliocharts.com and I spend an unhealthy amount of time comparing different allocations. So the new tool is excellent. I have a few hopefully constructive criticisms:

1)For the new comparison tool, there should be an easier way to change the start year than keying it in. I'm envisioning a scroll bar so you can watch how the line graphs intersect(or not) depending on the start year. Its possible that there is such a function and I haven't noticed it?

2)For the Withdrawal Rate Calculator (my favorite so far), if you enter in 50% SCV and 50% Emerging market, there is a nonsensical output. Not that anyone would recommend that allocation in reality, but I think I found a bug, and I'm hoping it doesn't invalidate other conclusions from the site.

3)Not so much a criticism as a suggestion; would it be possible to use all the data embedded in these calculators to determine THE ULTIMATE PORTFOLIO for various definitions? Like, to find the highest SWR of all possible allocations in the date range? Given how much you've accomplished with this site, this one seems like it should be reasonably straight forward. But maybe not; what do i know.

Really awesome site. I can't get enough of it.

[Tyler9000]

Nice work, Tyler! And you sound so friendly and normal.

01010100 01101000 01100001 01101110 01101011 01110011 00100001
My program has come a long way.

Thanks, all. The interview was fun, and Jake is a cool guy. I'm not as used to talking about these kinds of things as I am writing about them, so hopefully I communicated my points well enough without rambling too much. JP picked up on one of my favorite points, so I guess that's a good sign.

@ThisDinosaur: I'm glad you find it helpful! To answer your questions:

1) I use straight Excel and the tool I use to publish it online strips out any VBA, so I'm limited in some of the interfaces I can use. But that's a good idea and I'll look into it.

2) Yeah, that's an artifact of my iteration algorithm but it shouldn't affect any other conclusions. Good on you for noticing. Depending on the start value, very volatile assets sometimes have trouble converging on a solution. It tends to affect only a small number of combinations like the one you mention. I'll have to do more research to fix that permanently, but one simple workaround (that usually works) is to first set all values to zero and let that settle before entering the new allocation.

3) The short answer is yes. I've already built some calculators that do exactly that. But I have yet to find a hosting service that can run them without requiring the user to do too much (they require advanced features), and I am even a little hesitant to make them public without the right messaging. The results they spit out looking backwards are not always portfolios I would recommend, and I'm careful not to put what I consider bad advice on the site. So it's on my radar but nothing is imminent.

[slsdly]

@Tyler9000: I need to add my own effusive praise to the thread. It is addictive!

Any chance of adding the S&P/TSX Composite data as an "Total Canada" option? I understand any reluctance, as that will probably cause everybody to want their own country listed.

[Tyler9000]

I definitely can't accommodate everybody, but I'd love to get more international data. It just comes down to getting enough reliable data to make it worthwhile. If anyone knows where to get data back to 1972 for the variety of assets on the site in Canada, Australia, and the UK, please PM me!

[Tyler9000]

FYI -- I just added a new calculator that many here will find interesting. It shows just how much time a particular asset allocation has historically needed to achieve financial independence given a set savings rate. You can also do things like enter how far along you already are, and tweak the results based on anticipated spending changes at retirement. Check it out -- the results may surprise you.

Your Ideal Route to Financial Independence May Be Off the Beaten Path

Basically, it's a souped-up version of the famous chart from Jacob's book:


This one lets you enter your own personal AA instead of picking the returns curve, and accounts for how uncertainty affects the results.

[jacob]

Basically, it's a souped-up version of the famous chart from Jacob's book

Famous if rarely ever cited/credited ... so maybe more accurately: "widely used"

[bryan]

Brilliant. Have you gotten serious offers to be hired as a consultant or sell your website yet? :p

edit: also, the graphs look a bit silly for ERE types half way into accumulation. Not sure if it needs a fix or not.. I think having the constant axis is fine for this calculator so... yeah, not much you could change.

[Tyler9000]

Nah -- I'm still waiting for my first non-serious offer.

The fixed chart formatting does make the shorter timeframes data a little tight, but I sorta like it that way for the average reader to contrast just how different many saving strategies may be. My favorite feature is how the chart pretty clearly illustrates that low savings rates don't get you anywhere near the retirement goal even with aggressive investments. Plug in the typical 10%, and the results are appropriately jarring.

That said, I may play with the settings in the future depending on the feedback I get. The ways people use the tool may surprise me.

[jennypenny]

Nah -- I'm still waiting for my first non-serious offer.

Let me be the first to throw my hat in the ring.

You don't have to clutter the site with ads to monetize it. You could have a simple calculator and a few portfolios available for free, and put the rest behind a paywall. Negotiate with brokerages like Vanguard and Fidelity to give their clients 'free' access to the information behind the paywall for a monthly rate or a fee charged per client visit. You could reel them in if you have sample portfolios that matched their recommendations and used their funds as examples in the calculator.

Haha ... don't you love all of this unsolicited advice?!

[jacob]

edit: also, the graphs look a bit silly for ERE types half way into accumulation. Not sure if it needs a fix or not.. I think having the constant axis is fine for this calculator so... yeah, not much you could change.

There's not much you can do about this except subtract the number of years you already saved and offset one axis. Otherwise, you'd have to go 3D and add another axis.

It's very hard to substitute thinking for plotting

[jennypenny]

edit: also, the graphs look a bit silly for ERE types half way into accumulation. Not sure if it needs a fix or not.. I think having the constant axis is fine for this calculator so... yeah, not much you could change.

There's not much you can do about this except subtract the number of years you already saved and offset one axis. Otherwise, you'd have to go 3D and add another axis.

If you equate savings with credits like in HS or college, you could show people starting off as a freshman, sophomore, etc. based on how many 'credits' they already have.

[Tyler9000]

@jennypenny - Clearly sales & marketing are not my strong points. You've got the job!

[jennypenny]

I'm sorry for overstepping with my 'advice' but ... you've got a great product with a unique presentation. Most tools are either geared toward money managers or people who actively avoid managing their money. PC works for both.

Don't give it away for free. (except to us, of course )

[vexed87]

Don't give it away for free. (except to us, of course )

was just a bout to chime in!

I love all the info about the permanent portfolio, haven't been able to find anything like this, keep up the good work!

[Tyler9000]

Don't give it away for free. (except to us, of course )

Your advice is always welcome!

TBH I haven't given monetization very much thought to date. I've always mostly assumed that it would either fizzle completely over time or somehow take care of itself if it really took off, and I didn't want to get greedy and put the cart before the horse. But having outside eyes and feedback is kinda refreshing.

I've always had a personal aversion to paywalls, but I imagine they have a place if done well and truly add value. The idea of having sponsored access/portfolios is pretty interesting, and it follows more the Mint model which I kinda like (free to use, but a platform for paid content). That deserves some thought. I've also had a few requests for native versions of the full spreadsheets, and I imagine there's a potential market for that as well.

That said, the site is still pretty new and I'm in no rush. I'd rather take my time and build something thoughtfully than rush to capitalize and cap the potential audience in the process.

[rube]

What a great tool! I am sure if you want, you can monetize it.

I would love to see the option to select European funds, primarily to see the effect of a European PP. But I believe good data for that is more difficult to obtain and therefore probably too difficult to implement. Still, even for people outside the USA it is a great tool to play around with.

[akratic]

This website is the bomb. I especially like the recent charts that viscerally capture how important volatility is.

My wishlist for the site is:

1) More data, especially from other countries. As a start, you could use this data. I grabbed it off the Crawling Road forum a few years ago.

2) Instead of embedding the spreadsheet with an iframe, use javascript to stick it in a div, which will allow you to create dropdowns and other javascript elements that interact with the spreadsheet. Then on the calculators you could have a dropdown for US, UK, Japan and also I'd love to see a dropdown with each of the lazy portfolios, and selecting one of them simply populates the Asset Allocation numbers. (You could also clean up the janky SustWR=1 SafeWR=0 1)

I don't know how familiar you are with javascript, but if you want you can come check out my new apartment in South Congress this Saturday or Sunday and we could jam it out together. PM me or even better email at dan@akratic.com

[Tyler9000]

Thanks for the kudos! Having others use this stuff is definitely rewarding.

Nice data, Akratic. Send more! I'd also love to find Canadian funds, as well as a bit of international variety beyond the PP assets. BTW, also very high on my want list is US data for the assets I already have back even just another 10 years or so to the early 60's. I know that presents complications for gold because of the gold standard, but I'm more than happy to deal with that if I can stretch the data set for things like the WR calculations.

I'd love to get some dropdown menus on the site, but for now I'm using Wordpress.com which has strictly no javascript. It's the price you pay for a super easy hosting experience. I'll still take you up on the offer if I ever transition to somewhere else, and am happy to check out your new digs regardless. Welcome to Austin!