SWR milestone record

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cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey »

Seabourne wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:09 pm
While my wife has savings as well, I've been tracking them well before we met, so this is just mine, but covers all of our expenses - we are treating her savings as a safety backstop and they are ignored here.
Nice! What would your SWR be if you included your wife's savings?

Seabourne
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Seabourne »

right around the 3.0% I believe.

Edit: I suppose I ought to clarify what I'm actually counting as well: my numbers exclude the condo (because it's not an investment property) and the expenses continue to include the mortgage payment. If I netted out the outstanding mortgage and the total investments and decreased the spending by the P+I, my 6/2018 WR would be about 3.2%. So, a couple of backstops/rounding conservative numbers involved.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

2/1/2019 - 3.88%

cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey »

My SWR dropped from 4.89% to 3.46% today (*).




















* darn you Google Finance and your lying flakiness ... it's still fun to look at those numbers. :P

Douglas
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Douglas »

month 23 was 2/1/2019

Image

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

3/1/2019 - 3.63

Kipling
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Location: London

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Kipling »

1/1/13 - 12.29%
1/1/14 - 12.57%
1/1/15 - 8.53%
1/1/16 - 8.67%
1/1/17 - 19.07%
1/1/18 - 8.75%
1/1/19 - 7.46%

Freedom_2018
Posts: 449
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Freedom_2018 »

Current = 1.846%

Would have to look into past data (hard to do while traveling) and see when it exactly went below 3%...but approximately more than 6 yrs ago.

cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey »

Freedom_2018 wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:40 pm
Current = 1.846%
Impressive! Other than JLF I don't know of anyone lower.

Freedom_2018
Posts: 449
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Freedom_2018 »

Thanks. I didn't know it was a competition :-)

Actually today I calculated my SWR after a long time..partly because for past few days I've been on Tamiflu and hence more on the forum.

I mostly keep a close eye on my $ burn rate, especially long term (multi year) burn rate and periodically check in on portfolio performance.

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

4/1/2019 - 3.62%

Progress sure does seem to slow down a bit once you get below 4%

jacob
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by jacob »

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:36 pm
1/1/2011 - 120% ~ 6.91
1/1/2012 - 80.0% ~ 6.32
1/1/2013 - 58.5% ~ 5.87
1/1/2014 - 36.7% ~ 5.20
1/1/2015 - 20.7% ~ 4.37
1/1/2016 - 14.4% ~ 3.85
1/1/2017 - 8.8% ~ 3.14
1/1/2018 - 6.4% ~ 2.68
1/1/2019 - 4.2% ~ 2.07

4/1/2019 - 3.62% ~ 1.86
It's because the WR's show a 1/x relation to x which tends to be rather linear during the accumulation phase because it's dominated by earned income. The second column shows log2(100*) which inverts it. I suppose, I could also just have plotted 1/WR. That's of course just another way of saying that 2% is twice as much money as 4% which is twice as much as 8% and so on.

PS: Insofar this will become a foundation of various plots, I propose using log3(%) because 3% is the historically perpetual SWR. My agenda here would be to get away from the @#$@ 4% rule. If that metric is preferred, then log4(%) is better.

TopHatFox
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by TopHatFox »

7%, woop woop

wolf
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by wolf »

General question: When calculating the SWR, do you consider your total NW (including value of house, and maybe other things like gold, ... ) or do you exclude the value of such things, which doesn't produce any income?

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Bankai
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Bankai »

Would including your house not be double counting its value? Its already sort of included by reducing your expenses. Say you have €100k house and €100k portfolio, and you spend €8k pa. If you include your house, your SWR is 4%, but your portfolio needs to grow by 8% pa to support this spending level since you can't exactly sell a bit of house each year.

Unless it's a rental property or you have a lodger.

I would still include it in calculating NW though.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

I would only count the portion of home equity above and beyond the price of a dwelling I would be willing to downsize to.

Ex: You own a $100k home, and owe $25k on it. You could/would downsize to a $50k home as part of your draw-down strategy. I would count the $25k* equity I would have left over.

*I understand that in reality you would lose $$ on transaction costs during the sale and purchase of both properties, so this math is not exact. But it gets the point I'm trying to make.

Bankai makes a good point as well. If you plan on selling that home and renting, now your expenses increase by the cost of rent, minus the carrying costs of a home outside of the mortgage.

wolf
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by wolf »

@Bankai, 2B1S: Yes and Yes. Both of your answers make totally sense. Thanks for your feedback. I haven't reported my SWR with my home equity and I won't.

niemand
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by niemand »

niemand wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:09 am
2014 -- 9%
2015 -- 7%
2018 -- 4.8%

IlliniDave
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by IlliniDave »

I have a hard time with this thread because I keep changing the rules on myself.

Back in 2016 I reported 3.94%. In early 2019 that same calculation is 3.41%. Those numbers are computed as if all expenses were to be met from the stash. When I subtract off what outside income sources will take care of the number is 0.78% assuming I live to age 80.

I've also given myself a raise (for planning purposes anyway) since I'm leery of how things will go with medical costs and other things. At the higher spending rate the standalone number is 4.3% and the net-of-income number is 1.5%

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

@jacob, I understand the concept and appreciate you laying it out like that.

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

5/1/2019 - 3.57

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