Investments Trade Log

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Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Covid is "ending" (optimism about economic recovery is high). Stimmies this week might bump stocks up a bit more. People will be going back to work more in person where they won't have as much opportunity to day trade. Speculative mania has been falling from very high levels. Divergence in the major indices.

To me that says this week would be a good time to reduce exposure to equities, if their allocation is on the high end of your risk tolerance.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

@LuckyC, would you go into bonds or stay in cash when you reduce equity exposure?

white belt
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by white belt »

Lucky C wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:23 am
Covid is "ending" (optimism about economic recovery is high). Stimmies this week might bump stocks up a bit more. People will be going back to work more in person where they won't have as much opportunity to day trade. Speculative mania has been falling from very high levels. Divergence in the major indices.

To me that says this week would be a good time to reduce exposure to equities, if their allocation is on the high end of your risk tolerance.
Playing Devil’s Advocate here, it’s possible that we could see another equity bull market run when interest rates get high enough to cause a significant market correction and the Fed intervenes (whether with YCC or changing their mandate to buy other asset classes). At that point, it will become even more clear that the stock market is too big to fail and there is too much debt in the system to allow interest rates to float. Of course, any keen observer knows that the market is too big to fail, but when the Fed itself is saying they will support equity markets at any cost, then the narrative will become more mainstream.

I’ve heard the argument that 10 year rates could go up another 100 basis points before the Fed will have to intervene, so it’s difficult to predict exactly when this shift might happen.

In terms of where to put money if you’re reducing equity exposure, I still like commodities and gold. I’d be hesitant to dump a lot into bonds because of high prices and the unknowns about how wonky the bond market will get when the Fed starts intervening more aggressively.

Edit: I’ve also heard the argument that emerging markets will be big winners in the next decade, so it’s possible that may be a good place to ride things out (not something I do but just an idea).

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

white belt wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:42 pm
when interest rates get high enough to cause a significant market correction
My view was short term based on news & sentiment of the past few weeks-months, so "significant market correction" was what I was thinking one might want to prepare for, if their allocation is a bit high due to market gains and a correction would cause a too much pain. NASDAQ already saw a correction but of course SPX has been making new highs.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold my BAC LEAPs. I started feeling uncomfortable holding on to such a large unrealized gain. Used proceeds to close out the short call and purchase shares in AMD and BAC. Overall ROI was 27% and I made $5,500. Timing could not have been better because I did this at open and BAC is down this morning.

I'm also using the proceeds to weasel my way back into MSFT for a long-term hold. I lost MSFT sometime early this year due to covered calls hitting $225 strike. I sold a weekly PUT for $230 expiring end of this week for a small $159 premium.

Lastly I have CC's on NOK for $4.50 expiring end of week. I bought this one as mentioned during the meme stock uprising (which is still relevant?) at a high price of $5.44 but due to weekly rolling CCs, I'll break even actually if my shares are called away. In fact, I'll actually profit slightly. I'm actually hoping $4.50 is not struck because I'd like to hold longer but the fees on 80 contracts are so high I'm not going to bother rolling this either. I'll sell puts next week if I'm called away.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

I closed a lot of puts & calls I was short on 3/11 and 3/12 at a profit. Market is continuing to rise into opex Friday. I hope to close everything Friday morning at the latest to have my exposure minimal going into the next few weeks.

The moves on the 10 yr continue to worry me and I think we can see a selloff after the gamma pin on Friday is lifted. I read that 30% of the outstanding SPY calls are expiring Friday, so next week and the week after we could have a lot of volatility post that.

I'm looking to see if the 10 yr spikes again over the next few weeks and use that as an entry point into various things that might get hit with a big selloff (like miners).

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 12:29 pm
@LuckyC, would you go into bonds or stay in cash when you reduce equity exposure?
Right now aside from equities I have a combo of cash, intermediate US government bonds, gold, silver, and diversified commodities that are heavily influenced by oil prices (via PDBC which allows commodity exposure with no K1 tax form requirement).

The bond portion seems reasonable right now since the 10 year was very oversold compared to history, so even if we are the start of a new secular bond bear market, the upside seems pretty good compared to downside. Plus an intermediate bond ETF is not very volatile compared to commodities. Holding a lot of bonds long term seems like a bad idea to me right now, as does holding corporate or longer maturity government bonds.

Out of these equity alternatives, only oil has been doing very well lately, so this portfolio does not look appealing right now compared to the S&P500 and Bitcoin.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold 10 PLTR 4/23/2021 $23.00 PUTS for $1660 premium. Used premium to purchase shares in SPG (Simon Property Group).

Hristo Botev
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Hristo Botev »

@Lemur: What's the thinking with SPG, if I might ask? I've been really interested in seeing what's going to happen with all the mall properties in our post-COVID/Amazon economy; do you see SPG doing some innovative things with their properties?

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Hristo

First some notes on what I am doing here...

PLTR is perfect to run CSPs on due to high IV and the fact that I believe risk is low. I say the risk is low because I'm very confident that over a long period of time, PLTR will be at a higher stock price in the future than it is today; therefore, I don't mind if I end up assigned or have shares called away when I eventually do get assigned and sell covered calls. I'm using the premiums to dollar cost average my way into other long-term holds. In this case, SPG.

I am also invested in Macerich which has a worse balance sheet than SPG but I think has more upside on the stock.

SPG I am seeing more as a steady grower and one day could be back to its old $200 + level. There are many REITS to choose from, but I chose MAC and SPG because their locations are in wealthier areas. The malls in small-town locations will have the most problems surviving but upscale malls should be able to continue growth...

I am also interested in SPG (like with MAC) for several purposes: Inflation hedging, Value Investing, and Cyclical Reasons (this sector is overall down so now is time to get in and reap rewards for long-term benefit). More importantly - a study of history. If one invested in the banks & retail post 2008 crash, you would've made a fantastic return.

All traditional malls will have to innovate or die....I do not believe shopping malls are dead or ever will be at least in my lifetime. Here are some notes:

- Foot traffic is down in malls and this had been a trend for years now. As traditional shopping gets taken over by online retails, many shopping malls are beginning to transition to "hang-out" hubs with greater assortment of foods, restaurants, and dining (including food halls). In short, shopping malls are becoming a multi-purpose destination that offers leisure activities as well as other functions, like office, residential, and cultural amenities. The COVID pandemic speeded up this process.

- Workspaces. Example: https://digiday.com/retail/macerich-mal ... retailers/

- Instead of having a heavy inventory of products, some outlets are transitioning to holding just a showcase inventory. For instance, you walk in and look at items you want to buy, ask the customer service rep questions about the product, and then go home and order online. This may benefit the retailers who are able to operate with less square meters.

- Greenspace; just places to hangout and enjoy views.

- Centralized locations for product returns and general warehousing.

- Creative repurposes. For example, Macerich repurposed one of its malls to be a hospital.

In short...and this article can describe my thoughts better anyway (though is a sort of confirmation bias) but I do follow the logic:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/440414 ... e-not-dead Basically...Class A Mall Reits = tailwinds. Small-town malls and others = headwinds.

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

My watch says it's 2008 o'clock. I'm gonna plan accordingly.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:45 am
Sold 10 PLTR 4/23/2021 $23.00 PUTS for $1660 premium. Used premium to purchase shares in SPG (Simon Property Group).
Nice trade, I think $23 is a safe strike to be short puts for PLTR here.

I sold some $14 and $15 puts on VFF when it dropped 10%, it's got IV over 100 and seems to be in a good range (premiums just too good to pass up). Not doing much else this week, just trying to reduce exposure overall at this point. Still looking for some turbulence into the end of the month after OPEX tomorrow.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

thedollar wrote:
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:57 pm
My watch says it's 2008 o'clock. I'm gonna plan accordingly.
There are tons of charts and stats comparing these past several months to 2000. If today is more like 2000 than 2008 then one difference is you'd be fine holding value stocks and avoiding NASDAQ, whereas in 2008 you'd want to avoid pretty much everything except tail risk hedges.

Value is now (very recently) starting to beat growth and it seems you would do better holding value than growth right now, but if everything's overvalued and everyone gets scared, it can all tank of course.

Also typically people want to defend against the "last war" which a fast drop when everything almost breaks in 2008 and an even faster drop when everything almost breaks in 2020. It would be interesting if the next bear market is a very slow decline instead of a crash, or a lot of sideways volatility that whipsaws trendfollowers at thresholds that would have worked well in the past. Not saying that I hope for that or it would be more likely than another rapid crash, just that it would be interesting.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Saw a "lumber is too expensive" meme on the Reddit front page (had previously only seen references to high lumber prices on the woodworking subreddit). Time to short lumber futures? ;)

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lucky C wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:50 am
Saw a "lumber is too expensive" meme on the Reddit front page (had previously only seen references to high lumber prices on the woodworking subreddit). Time to short lumber futures? ;)
Ha, the cure for high prices is high prices. Seems like the supply crunch was partly artificial due to lumber mills being closed in Canada for covid. But in the meantime demand has skyrocketed, everyone is fleeing the cities like roaches, got a bunch of friends either buying, building or doing additions.

Too tricky to play this one when people are pushing down on both sides of the scale.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Wednesday and Thursday as I stared glassy-eyed into a deep mawing abyss of red candles I sold puts on PLTR at $19 and FCX at $29. Both in profit today, but we shall see. The selloff is always around the corner it seems.

So how about that Suez Canal, eh? Anybody playing with oil on that one? Shippers? I don't like those short term even driven things but I know some of you do.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

giskard wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:34 am
I don't like those short term even driven things but I know some of you do.
A great source is @hkuppy on Twitter. He has a site called KEDM.com where he throws a lot of stuff that may be relevant to event driven investing.
I personally find his insights on his blog to be interesting and smart (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/), but I don’t bother with the rest (it’s in my too hard pile)

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Seppia wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:41 am
A great source is @hkuppy on Twitter. He has a site called KEDM.com where he throws a lot of stuff that may be relevant to event driven investing.
I personally find his insights on his blog to be interesting and smart (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/), but I don’t bother with the rest (it’s in my too hard pile)
Yep he's a good follow. Has some interesting takes on different spaces from time to time. I do think he gets off a little too much on being contrarian to be objective about much but eh who is really objective? I like KEDM but I haven't used it enough that I will be paying for it when it becomes a paid service. That said, I've made some money on Kuppy's ideas overall. Just ignore everything about oil tankers that he writes you will be good :lol:

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I'm at all-time records...in bad way. Almost down 50% on one stock :o I'm gonna hold out for the post-covid mall recovery though. MAC could even be a potential buyout target at these prices...anyway never before have I seen a negative $15k on one stock.

Also down on my short put position in PLTR. I have a CSP at $23.00

Down on AMD too. That stock was the biggest one in my portfolio and all my 2020 unrealized gains have been wiped out.

Just ... holding. :D Because...what else do you do if you believe in your positions for the long-run.

Somehow I'm still up on a net-worth by month to month basis...mainly due to ridiculously high savings and personal incomes.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Closed out my shorts on BAC at $41 strike expiring 4/16. Good move as I was able to close for a small profit and eliminate the risk of capping upside. BAC is up 7.14% in the past month and continues to increase 8 days until earnings call. I did the same with AAPL...closed out my CCs. Starting to see some bull runs with these two.

WMT is also starting to increase . Up 8.11% in the past month and I had to roll out and up a CC for a credit - but my roll was pushed out until September for only $145 strike. I'm tied up for a while. Might end up with capped gains here. I was a little caught off guard with the sudden rise but this can be managed if the underlying ends up trading sideways or decreases.

Stopping with the CC's on NOK. The premiums are not even worth it and IV is extremely low...maybe this will push call buyers.

MAC is still being MAC. But the company shored up its liquidity position with a stock dilution and a sell of a non-core asset / mall. Will continue to hold these bags for a long time.

AMD back in the 80 range. I'm back until unrealized gain territory. This stock continues to be my largest holding.

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