Investments Trade Log

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Crusader
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Crusader »

I didn't read the rest of the thread, so I appologize if this was discussed before or elsewhere. But, I am quite pessimistic in terms of the COVID situation. I think it will be many months before things go back to normal, and until then, the governments are spending money on the measures, assistance, medicare etc. Many people lost their jobs.

What does this mean for investing? How should we adjust? (I mostly invest in the index, 75% and fixed income/bonds, 25%). My thinking is that even if we have inflation, by owning stocks (i.e. parts of companies), you still own something concrete, so the dollar value will reflect inflation. As for the economy not doing well, well, there isn't much we can do about that, so my strategy has been to change nothing.

biaggio
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Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by biaggio »

I don't know. Here's one simplistic line of reasoning. Developed markets received awesome injections of new money, much bigger than during the GFC---notice the spike in supplies (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 or more broadly https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MZM). The velocity of money, the number of times a dollar is spent to produce nominal GDP, has been going down (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V or https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MZMV). This means (or rather could mean) that it's being hoarded by wealthy companies and private individuals.

A large chunk could end up with big well-performing companies that are included in the main stock indexes so sticking to indexing looks like a sound idea to me.

Crusader
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Crusader »

Interesting, thanks for that, biaggio! Maybe what's happening is that the injections of money are going to the poor communities that have to spend it all and so the money ends up being in the hands of the big corporations. Knowing all this, maybe the smart thing to do is to invest in the industry that deals with the essentials: food, utilities, medicine.

EDIT: a very basic, quick investigation made me think that my hypothesis is wrong. Maybe now people are spending less money on luxury goods from food and trying to save on utilities and so the profits are lower as well. These market trends seem very hard to predict. I am sticking to the index.

Der Leiermann
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon May 11, 2020 5:32 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Der Leiermann »

Crusader wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:47 pm
My thinking is that even if we have inflation, by owning stocks (i.e. parts of companies), you still own something concrete, so the dollar value will reflect inflation.
This may seem logical (it was to me) but has it been the case in the past? Ben Graham, the grandfather of investment gurus has done some research on that hypothesis. In the time period from 1915-1970 there was sometimes high inflation and negative stock growth or negative inflation and high stock growth (and everything in between). His conclusio is that there is no strong relationship between stock market returns and inflation. Source: The intelligent Investor, chapter 2

Crusader
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Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Crusader »

Der Leiermann wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:39 am
Did they control for how well the economy was doing? If the economy is sh*t, it might offset the increase in dollar value of a given asset due to inflation, because that asset is now no longer able to produce profits.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Maxed my tIRA this morning from some premiums I've been collecting since December (PLTR cash-secured puts), and some additional after-tax savings. Put all this money into increased international allocation (VXUS). With all the excitement and trading bubbles lately...I figured it was time to allocate towards the boring.

I still have open CSPs on PLTR that expire in February and if I'm lucky that might even close today for 50% profit after the 10% underlying stock pop.

My large allocation towards AMD is dragging me down lately. Intel is stepping up the plate lately with some changes. I'm confident AMD earnings will bring it back up. AMD is long-term anyway so I probably shouldn't be too concerned with short-term price drops, but I do have deep ITM Leaps here.

biaggio
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Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by biaggio »

I've been sitting on way too much cash (>30%). Right before the pandemic I was 80% cash. Keeping cash makes me comfortable regardless of market situation, but it's too much. I'll be DCAing large chunk of future savings into a broad tracking instrument until I spot something within my (rather narrow) circle of competence that I'm comfortable owning.

One of the best, if not the best, investments I made so far was in my education---this includes studying books on topics outside my formal training, such as finance textbooks. I've spent $450 on (new and used) books in the last few months.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Added to AMD position in lead-up to earnings. Stock currently trading at $90.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Giskard PLTR up 25% today. :) Should be good for your LEAPS.

I was able to close out a CSP and open up another one. I might even be able to close that one out soon as well. Maybe even as early next week.

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C40
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

Nearly all of my portfolio is in pretty boring dividend stocks. But finally this year I have decided to start a little bit of speculative growth trading.

So far, all of these trades are small, 0.1% to 1% of NW.

MTCH because, everybody needs some lovin'. I bought in mid 2019 at $74. In late 2020 I set a limit order and sold at $120. sell at

I will be watching the Bumble IPO as that approaches. Last I was in the U.S., Bumble was more popular with people that have more disposable income.

QCOM - I bought at $155 recently. This is a long-term bet for me
Thinking about AMD, NVDA, and INTL. Might think about buying AMD before or after their earnings report.


Just bought a couple of super speculative 'meme stocks'.

BB - (Blackberry) (They're are transitioning from a phone company to other business related to data transfer for car type sensors. Selling patents. Still trying to sue Facebook for patent infringement(?))

GME - (Gamestop) - Big hype in January. Famous guy joined their board. New plans. Price jumped from $4 ... now up over $60. I bought at $44. Appears to be a big short squeeze going on and lots of news coverage.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

C40 wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:40 pm
GME - (Gamestop) - Big hype in January. Famous guy joined their board. New plans. Price jumped from $4 ... now up over $60. I bought at $44. Appears to be a big short squeeze going on and lots of news coverage.
Did you sell after the 100% gain today?

The speculative frenzy has me left watching in awe. Not getting anything done today. Incredibly GME was halted more than once and almost every big retail broker has had intermittent issues today. What a time to be alive.

I'm going to start reducing risk a little bit. We have to be just a few months from some kind of crash at this point. Probably not THE crash, but probably a crash (especially if bond yields keep going up).

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@giskard.

My thoughts are very similar this morning. I still opened up another CSP on PLTR but if assigned; that one is a long-term play for me.

Things are looking .... bubbly.

Its very tempting but I haven't done it - you could probably pick through a couple of random SPAC's and find a lotto ticket if one is willing...or anything that has a high short-interest ratio that gets captured by the frenzy. FIZZ was another one today.

As for AMD, I'm adding shares every paycheck as long as AMD trades under $100. My price target is in the $115-$130 range this year. I think upside is on the ARM architecture rumor (which would be a direct competitor to Apple's M1 chip) and continued growth in the 5G sector.

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C40
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

giskard wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:54 pm
Did you sell after the 100% gain today?...
Nope. I would have sold some, but... I was going to set limit orders over the weekend for selling a couple shares each at various prices on the way up, but I had bought these with proceeds of another sale immediately, and got the message that if these GME shares sold before settlement, I could get a 90-day buying freeze. I don't know enough about quick trading to know if that is really a risk.

I'm not sure what I'll do now..probably just pick some prices starting at about $100. I only have 12 shares, so, even if it keeps going crazy, I wouldn't gain much.

Yeah, it is super crazy. BB also went up a lot today (50%)

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