Investments Trade Log

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jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

I felt a great disturbance in the Force...as if millions of robinhooders suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

At least until next week.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

hm if this shapes up to be a downtrend will the dollar strengthen should i move my money into dollars

Peanut
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Peanut »

Sold AMZN for 3194 after buying back in at 3143. Cemented at 5k because I was pressed for time. In partial retrospect I would have easily made 5k more by waiting until the next time I could check in. In full retrospect I would have made the same money just selling at the end of the day, but that would have been impossible with my schedule, and I think maybe I wouldn't have sold given the day's movements. I'm calling it a wash and just glad to be out for now.

Der Leiermann
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Der Leiermann »

ertyu wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:52 am
hm if this shapes up to be a downtrend will the dollar strengthen should i move my money into dollars
This article argues a weakness of the dollar in the mid term, given the Fed's new inflation regime:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cenb ... SKBN25Y0H3

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I've had trading restrictions a few weeks now. How lucky did I get? Timed perfectly with the market falling lol. Only have 1 vertical call spread that is crying for help but may recover (spread is out in March 2021 so still plenty of time).

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Even if I didn't have any idea where the market was heading previously, it now feels like I have even less of an idea. I'm officially lost.

I personally had an urge this week to take a few % of my NW of the stock market table and build a larger cash position. I certainly don't see anything worth buying at the moment. I'm also going to pause my usual monthly purchases of stocks. That said I still have a 50% exposure to the stock market.

FreeLiving
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by FreeLiving »

Really cool!

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

I'm up almost 300% on SQ...decided to sell a covered call expiring this Friday for $200.00. I consider this position now overvalued so decided to make covered call money on a weekly basis until it is triggered. Same with my shares in PLUG (up 80%) but being more careful as there is still a lot of upside on this one I think. Also made a covered call on DIS for giggles. If that triggers, I'll break even. Been considering selling DIS anyhow.

I'm holding steady on my tech stocks but starting to get tech bubble fears. MSFT I'm gonna hang on though.

bedon
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bedon »

thedollar wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:02 pm
Even if I didn't have any idea where the market was heading previously, it now feels like I have even less of an idea. I'm officially lost.
Welcome to the club :)... I went mostly cash at the end of August anticipating the correction, but haven't been able to get back in as I can't make my mind on the direction the market is heading. The last week has been very strong (and technicals are positive) and it looks like sentiment is quite positive but then the election is approaching and almost everyone expect to be quite volatile...

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

fintwit thinks it's going up into the end of the year.

thedollar
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@Bedon

I sold some specific stocks and one of them is now up 20%+.

I'm feeling FOMO and greed... Two of the best indicators that I shouldn't buy or sell anything - just leave everything as it is and focus on something else. :roll:

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Update on selling options:

I let most of my open exposure roll off over the last 2 months. After last Friday I only have 15k in exposure to short puts with 50k of cash in that account and about 50k in long stock positions I've been selling call against. Only have a couple of open short calls as well.

My feeling is that there will still be volatility in the next couple weeks, especially if they do / don't pass a stimulus bill, covid 2nd wave hits, and if the election is disputed (I'm more and more convinced it will be Biden by a landslide, but that doesn't mean it wont be contested).

Anyway, with that backdrop, I'd rather be selling options AFTER the vol spike, not before. There are a lot of tech stocks I've been very tempted to sell puts on though!

I'm concerned my gold & commodities trades will get hammered after the election, because if Biden wins the Trump administration may block any stimulus deal out of spite and we won't get a stimulus bill until February 2021. But eventually they will soar when a big stimulus and probably also a big infrastructure deal is passed by Biden admin.

I'm becoming interested in the long copper trade based on increasing use in EV & infrastructure spending as well. I'd like to start some positions related to housing market raw materials since it seems this building boom could continue for a while. Commodities and tech are the only things in general that I'm really looking at.

If Trump wins on the other hand I'm not sure. It seems the Republican controlled senate is trying to reign in the spending to a degree, which would be less bullish for gold / commodities. But the administration itself seems to pushing for Stimulus. In this case, going to have hope for the EU & China to do big spending programs. Maybe the US still gets an infrastructure deal which then spikes commodities?

A lot of the outcome of any spending bill could depend on if there is a big fall virus wave. It's looking increasingly likely, and if we see huge job losses this might force congress & senate into action. I'd anticipate Trump signing whatever lands on his desk. We already saw higher than anticipated weekly unemployment claims last week... looking for that trend to continue. If we get back to 2 million a week, well I think they will be forced to do something.

Anyway, don't have a crystal ball but just thinking through likely scenarios here. As you can see, there is a ton that could happen the next couple of months.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

How do you plan to trade commodities? Mining stocks or futures?

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Sold more covered calls - SQ, DIS, PLUG. I'm doing these weekly as I see these particular stocks staying relatively flat / down in the coming weeks. Don't mind assignment on SQ and PLUG as I am overvalued in these positions. DIS I Just want to break-even and allocate elsewhere.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

ertyu wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:54 pm
How do you plan to trade commodities? Mining stocks or futures?
Yeah, mostly mining stocks, raw materials, energy and some stocks that are maybe one step upstream from raw materials. I'd rather not trade commodity futures directly because I have little experience with them maybe it takes years for this stuff to really play out. In the mean time these equities are cheap in an expensive market.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:39 pm
Sold more covered calls - SQ, DIS, PLUG. I'm doing these weekly as I see these particular stocks staying relatively flat / down in the coming weeks. Don't mind assignment on SQ and PLUG as I am overvalued in these positions. DIS I Just want to break-even and allocate elsewhere.
Bullish on SQ even at current high valuation. The bitcoin tailwind is very real, I think there is a chance you get them called away.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Thanks @giskard. Its a tough choice...I made this mistake once selling SQ too early but right now I'm already up 300% (nice problem to have)....and fearing tech bubble + overvaluations.

Maybe if I get called away I'll consider selling put to get back in...not sure yet. I'm sort of speculating as well.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

giskard wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:48 pm
I'm becoming interested in the long copper trade based on increasing use in EV & infrastructure spending as well.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9570

http://www.coinflation.com/

shemp
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by shemp »

ertyu wrote:
Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:54 pm
How do you plan to trade commodities? Mining stocks or futures?
Commodities are mostly a play on the ultimate commodity, which is energy. It takes lots of energy (and not much else) to mine and refine basic materials, to irrigate and grow crops on marginal land, etc. Hence the saying "you're eating oil" regarding eating fresh lettuce in New York in January. Copper, mentioned above, is plentiful if you can refine vast amounts of poor grade ore using vast amounts of energy. So just overweight the energy sector. To stay on the conservative side, stick to companies which can make good profits even at $40/barrel oil price.

Russia is also a play on commodities. I'm about 13% Russia stocks, mostly mining and energy, versus 1% Russia world market cap % for stocks, so heavily overweight there.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I have thought about Russia. Russia is also a climate play. The two are synergistic: milder climate will reduce the cost of commodities extraction. What's stopped me so far is, I am under the impression that you can own Russian stocks through ADRs only as a foreigner. Also, the political risk is real, and by this I don't mean the "commies will take your property" bs that seems to be popular with a certain brand of murican tinfoil hat. More like, as a foreign investor you can very easily be left with a thumb up your ass (as many who invested in China would be).

How's the current carry trade in the ruble? Stage of unwinding? Would there be a better time to enter than now

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