Investments Trade Log
Re: Investments Trade Log
That's a good insight shemp, will be interesting to follow if any of those that cut dividend and claim to be wanting to shift towards cleaner solutions (RDS and Equinor come to mind) will go down this path.
Re: Investments Trade Log
Profited on WMT vertical spread. Used profits to buy Intel. Opened up another spread on WMT.
INTC...growing revenue, earnings, ROE 30% TTM, positive cash flow, and 9 PE ratio. A reasonably priced stock. Doesn't see that much these days.
PEG Ratio
"Currently, Intel has a PEG ratio of 1.15 compared to the Semiconductor - General industry's PEG ratio of 3.17. The company's trailing twelve month (TTM) PEG ratio is the P/E ratio divided by its growth rate over the past 12 months." - zacks.com
INTC...growing revenue, earnings, ROE 30% TTM, positive cash flow, and 9 PE ratio. A reasonably priced stock. Doesn't see that much these days.
PEG Ratio
"Currently, Intel has a PEG ratio of 1.15 compared to the Semiconductor - General industry's PEG ratio of 3.17. The company's trailing twelve month (TTM) PEG ratio is the P/E ratio divided by its growth rate over the past 12 months." - zacks.com
-
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:45 am
Re: Investments Trade Log
INTC is looking pretty good right now.
Re: Investments Trade Log
Didn’t they recently admit defeat by TSMC saying they’ll stop producing chips?
I don’t follow the stock and know nothing about this world but that sounds like a big deal. If it’s not, then I could see an opportunity
I don’t follow the stock and know nothing about this world but that sounds like a big deal. If it’s not, then I could see an opportunity
Re: Investments Trade Log
@Ajcoleman22
Has value-stock written all over it.
@Seppia
Not entirely. They will be outsourcing some of the chip making. But revenues are up 20% YOY and will likely to continue to grow as cloud computing grows. This article gives a good cliff notes of each major player in the semi-conductor world:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-semico ... 43443.html
Intel was a little bit slow to change (moving away from PCs) and that is what has made it a laggard but they're making recent moves to position themselves better (fired Chief Engineering officer for instance) for future growth.
With Intel's bankrolls and brand-power. I think they will be fine.
Has value-stock written all over it.
@Seppia
Not entirely. They will be outsourcing some of the chip making. But revenues are up 20% YOY and will likely to continue to grow as cloud computing grows. This article gives a good cliff notes of each major player in the semi-conductor world:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-semico ... 43443.html
Intel was a little bit slow to change (moving away from PCs) and that is what has made it a laggard but they're making recent moves to position themselves better (fired Chief Engineering officer for instance) for future growth.
With Intel's bankrolls and brand-power. I think they will be fine.
-
- Posts: 2283
- Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am
Re: Investments Trade Log
I shaved 10% off all my US equity index holdings today, except for a few individual picks, went to cash. Dry power now accounts for a third of total portfolio.
Re: Investments Trade Log
I think this could prove to be a good call. I'm going to shift more towards cash this week.classical_Liberal wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:29 pmI shaved 10% off all my US equity index holdings today, except for a few individual picks, went to cash. Dry power now accounts for a third of total portfolio.
PUT / CALL ratio looking spicy!
https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equ ... call_ratio
SPY is hitting all time highs, no stimulus deal in sight, VIX has cooled off, volume is down. Its like the market is on autopilot and nobody realizes that there is no gas fueling this thing anymore. Of course I could be wrong and we get SPY at 400 by November.
Re: Investments Trade Log
Imagine holding TSLA for the first half of the year, selling at the end of July when it was looking like it was rolling over after an easy 350% YTD gain, and then looking at the price now and feeling like an idiot for missing out on an additional 67% in the past month. "I'm such a moron selling after only 350% over 6 months!" Crazy to think that there must be some people out there thinking along those lines even if they have been making once-in-a-lifetime gains betting on tech stocks this year.
I see signs of a much higher than normal chance of a major pullback over the next few weeks. The trouble is major pullbacks don't happen too often so a "much higher than normal chance" doesn't mean it's more likely than not.
I see signs of a much higher than normal chance of a major pullback over the next few weeks. The trouble is major pullbacks don't happen too often so a "much higher than normal chance" doesn't mean it's more likely than not.
Re: Investments Trade Log
I almost get the feeling everyone's expecting that correction so it won't happen just to spite us
Re: Investments Trade Log
I was concerned about Zoom's pricing in Nov/Dec 2019 so I purchased in four lots. I toyed with selling but when it hit verb status, I said just leave it alone. It's up 550%.
-
- Posts: 882
- Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:50 pm
- Location: Midwest, USA
Re: Investments Trade Log
@Jason Goes to show what I know about investing (when I was talking about the tech side of Zoom a while back). Still feels crazy. Like we're in the age of tulip tech.
Re: Investments Trade Log
550% is all types of wrong. It does not feel like good fortune. It's a little sickening in the too much chocolate sense. Watching things go up yesterday was as sickening as watching them go down in March.
However, most investing nightmare stories are not "I had a choice between Blockbuster and Netflix and I chose Blockbuster." It's I bought Netflix @ x and sold @ x+ % because I thought it was getting too high and now I would have x amount of dollars if I had just held on. The only thing I do know is that I will not be adding to my position.
However, most investing nightmare stories are not "I had a choice between Blockbuster and Netflix and I chose Blockbuster." It's I bought Netflix @ x and sold @ x+ % because I thought it was getting too high and now I would have x amount of dollars if I had just held on. The only thing I do know is that I will not be adding to my position.
Re: Investments Trade Log
For psychological satisfaction you could sell about 15% of your Zoom stake. Feel good getting all your initial investment back to redeploy elsewhere, while not feeling bad about selling if it continues to rise and you still make 85% of what you would have made.
Re: Investments Trade Log
I did that with DOCU which I bought at $62 when it hit $210. Now it's $273. I mourn my sold shares.
Thank God ZM is down today. I couldn't take another day like yesterday. When TWLO ran up 40% in one day I had to calm myself. People don't give Warren Buffet enough credit for maintaining his equilibrium while watching his money escalate to unfathomable heights. For all he is blessed with, put disposition at the top of the list. For times like these, reading the accounts of lottery winners is a sobering reminder of the role of disposition when it comes to money, both substantial losses and substantial gains.
Thank God ZM is down today. I couldn't take another day like yesterday. When TWLO ran up 40% in one day I had to calm myself. People don't give Warren Buffet enough credit for maintaining his equilibrium while watching his money escalate to unfathomable heights. For all he is blessed with, put disposition at the top of the list. For times like these, reading the accounts of lottery winners is a sobering reminder of the role of disposition when it comes to money, both substantial losses and substantial gains.
Re: Investments Trade Log
Having great success with vertical call spreads lately. I have profited on all of the spreads I have set up in the past month and only had to break-even on one... To reduce trading activity, and possibly create increased probability of success to avoid short-term stock bouncing, I started setting my DTE (date till expiration) out about 6 months because I want to become less active. I also always exit at 50% max profit and only do spreads on stocks that I actually own (my brokerage won't let me sell a call otherwise anyway...probably for the best) and feel particularly bullish about. Usually I choose a long that is slightly ITM but did go with a slightly OTM for this one.
Here is today's option spread as an example:
MSFT 2021319 LONG CALL $235.00 for $24.40 Cost
MSFT 2021319 SHORT CALL $285.00 for $9.15 Premium
Call Spread ($285 - $235) = $50.00
Net Debit (Cost - Premium) = $15.25
Max Profit (Spread - Net Debit) = $34.75
50% Max Profit = $17.38
So I set a 'buy to close' on the long for $41.75. This is computed by taking the price I bought the long call for ($24.40) plus the 50% max profit calculation ($17.38) so I have the limit price set for $41.75.
What happens now is simple:
1.) If stock rises somewhere between $235-$285 in the coming weeks or months, the long call appreciates and will trigger the buy to close. I profit from the long call. The funds are immediately used to close out the short which likely will decay in value due to Theta. I profited overall from the position.
2.) Stock trades mostly sideways all the way until DTE. My short will be near worthless (great as I kept premium) and long call will only be worth anything if still ITM. I break-even or profit as long as I can sell the long for the net debit price which should still have intrinsic value as long as the stock is above the strike price of $235 from the long call.
3.) Stock falls below long call strike price. My max risk is the net debit ($1,525.00) if I let the options expire. In these situation's where the stock price is below the long call strike price, I am better off selling the long a bit early about 21-30 days or so because the long call will still have extrinsic value on it and theta picks up greatly around the 21 day time till expiration.
Here is today's option spread as an example:
MSFT 2021319 LONG CALL $235.00 for $24.40 Cost
MSFT 2021319 SHORT CALL $285.00 for $9.15 Premium
Call Spread ($285 - $235) = $50.00
Net Debit (Cost - Premium) = $15.25
Max Profit (Spread - Net Debit) = $34.75
50% Max Profit = $17.38
So I set a 'buy to close' on the long for $41.75. This is computed by taking the price I bought the long call for ($24.40) plus the 50% max profit calculation ($17.38) so I have the limit price set for $41.75.
What happens now is simple:
1.) If stock rises somewhere between $235-$285 in the coming weeks or months, the long call appreciates and will trigger the buy to close. I profit from the long call. The funds are immediately used to close out the short which likely will decay in value due to Theta. I profited overall from the position.
2.) Stock trades mostly sideways all the way until DTE. My short will be near worthless (great as I kept premium) and long call will only be worth anything if still ITM. I break-even or profit as long as I can sell the long for the net debit price which should still have intrinsic value as long as the stock is above the strike price of $235 from the long call.
3.) Stock falls below long call strike price. My max risk is the net debit ($1,525.00) if I let the options expire. In these situation's where the stock price is below the long call strike price, I am better off selling the long a bit early about 21-30 days or so because the long call will still have extrinsic value on it and theta picks up greatly around the 21 day time till expiration.
Re: Investments Trade Log
Sold AMZN for 3236. Etrade tells me I bought it 8/3 for 3136. Of course I know this because it was the first new active position I'd taken since March. 40k on Wednesday shrunk to 10k today. I had forgotten it was precisely the volatility I loved. Guess I'll have to make my money the hard way. Which means I should buy back in nowish...
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 15996
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
- Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
- Contact:
Re: Investments Trade Log
I felt a great disturbance in the Force...as if millions of robinhooders suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
At least until next week.
At least until next week.
Re: Investments Trade Log
hm if this shapes up to be a downtrend will the dollar strengthen should i move my money into dollars
Re: Investments Trade Log
Sold AMZN for 3194 after buying back in at 3143. Cemented at 5k because I was pressed for time. In partial retrospect I would have easily made 5k more by waiting until the next time I could check in. In full retrospect I would have made the same money just selling at the end of the day, but that would have been impossible with my schedule, and I think maybe I wouldn't have sold given the day's movements. I'm calling it a wash and just glad to be out for now.
-
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Mon May 11, 2020 5:32 am
Re: Investments Trade Log
This article argues a weakness of the dollar in the mid term, given the Fed's new inflation regime:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cenb ... SKBN25Y0H3