Investments Trade Log

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shemp
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by shemp »

And up another 14% this morning. Poor shorts soiling their shorts...

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Today was the first time I've seen FAANG referred to as the "Giant 5" (technically FAAMG).
In terms of eras, this marks either the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Did not think I would have another opportunity to buy more long dated far out of the money SPY puts above the 3230 level, with the market above break even for the calendar year.

VIX now rising on up days for the market. This happened last week as well. Deflectors say there is something there, sensors say there isn’t. Correlations breaking down here at the border of the galaxy.

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

shemp wrote:
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:36 am
And up another 14% this morning. Poor shorts soiling their shorts...
...and closed down 3% for the day.
LOL this stock is worse than bitcoin.

Glad I did not think about shorting it in any way shape or form.

Note to self: never think about shorting any stock again

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

A lot of Tech took hits today?
SQ down 7.34% but up pre-market.

SQ is one of my holdings I have $125 Covered Calls on. Thought that was going to trigger for me July 24 but may not. Who knows. Wild market today.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I saw the Mark Cohodes interview on Raoul Vision a year ago and he details how his (crooked) broker changed margin requirements and forced him to liquidate a massive short position before he could realize gains. I also vowed not to short stocks. Options offer non-recourse leverage.

Volkwagen became the largest company by market cap in 2008 as a result of a short squeeze.

For a few hours today, Tesla had a larger market cap than the next three car manufacturers- Toyota, Volkwagen, and Daimler- combined.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... s/htmlview

Tesla
Price-to-earnings: 9,725
Price-to-book: 30.81
Price-to-sales: 10.61

Toyota
Price-to-earnings: 9.22
Price-to-book: 0.93
Price-to-sales: 0.63

Elements of 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2008 all repeating themselves, stirred together and accentuating one another.

Ecclesiastes 1:9

ajcoleman22
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ajcoleman22 »

ajcoleman22 wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:57 am
Shorted $TSLA today (pure gamble play). This is craziness.
That ended poorly. Good thing I put a stop in and didn't lose my ass. It's only getting crazier.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

So 3rd Friday of the month is over and done with (without many surprises), all my puts I sold expired worthless.

What is everyone thinking the next few weeks? My thoughts are that the house/senate are going to in some way screw up passing another stimulus bill and we are going to actually hit that hard fiscal cliff July 31st that everyone is talking about it.

As a result, I'm thinking about sitting on the sidelines until the first week of August. At very least I am expecting some serious volatility as the virus numbers increase and the stimulus either passes or doesn't or gets completely stalled out.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

The VIX crushed lower to close Friday below 26. Post-Covid VIX low was June 5 which was one trading day before short term SP500 high.

Might be near inflection point. Not only is stimulus ending but earnings season is here and we are starting to see insolvencies and bankruptcies manifest. Either nothing truly matters and SP500 is at 3500-4000 by the end of the year with 20%+ unemployment or the market starts to price in a non-V recovery.

In February I had a feeling I wished I had just put everything in gold trades and one month later I had been wishing I sized my SPY puts bigger. The last month in particular I have had this feeling again so I have sized my SPY position bigger than before even while I painfully watch the miners rise after having sold a chunk. Even though I own a lot of GDXJ calls expiring in January and the miners remain my largest position, I am rooting hard for a broad market and miner sell off so I can monetize my SPY puts and buy more miners.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Intel down 15% this morning. They basically declared they lost the chip war. In doing so, that is partially one of the reasons AMD shot up 10% today. If AMD stays above $65 today, then my shares get called away because I had some covered calls on them. My cost basis on AMD is $51 per share. I'll net a good profit and will probably want to buy back in by selling puts but also divesting some of the profits away to PLUG since I'm overweight AMD now and I want to build up my PLUG position.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:28 am
If AMD stays above $65 today, then my shares get called away because I had some covered calls on them. My cost basis on AMD is $51 per share.
Looks like you got assigned at a nice profit. Going to inverse it now and buy INTC?

This week was interesting. When silver broke above $20 / oz on the futures market on Sunday I got excited. On Monday I made the bet that it would keep going and trend hard. I sold puts on a bunch of silver miners and collected about $1000 in premiums. Well, we closed the week at nearly $23 / oz on silver so the bet did work well. I have about 50k in exposure to puts right now but essentially everything went the right direction and I'm at a 50% profit or more on most of them.

Interestingly Gold went up quite a bit too (closed at $1900) but I felt that the gold miners didn't move much. The silver miners actually moved less than the price of silver so maybe people are pricing in a pullback? Just feels like they should be higher if people believe the price will stay where it is on the metals. Because of this I bought shares in some more of the miner ETFs.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Nice @giskard. Yes, I profited very well.

Given the recent run-up on AMD I was very overweight on that stock in my portfolio. I had 300 shares called away. I still think that stock has much more room to run up in the short-term and is still a great long-term play; but I'm also fearing that it is hitting that 'FOMO / MEME' territory...Its earnings call is Tuesday so what I might just do is sell puts again to see if I can get back in at $65 a share for 200 shares. With the other cash, going to build up my PLUG position. PLUG is still growing like a weed and I believe there is a long future for hydro fuel cells.

I can't say I know much about INTC other products; I mainly look at the chip business as a whole.

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Lemur wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:00 pm
Its earnings call is Tuesday so what I might just do is sell puts again to see if I can get back in at $65 a share for 200 shares.
I don't like selling puts into earnings but yeah that premium does looks juicy. 100% IV on weeklies for AMD. Idk, but I suppose chances are they beat and stonks only go up haha.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ZAFCorrection »

The semiconductor industry should get pretty interesting as it becomes physically impossible to get further miniaturization from the current materials system. Unless some other development-heavy paradigm takes its place, most of the processes in a fab are going to become trivial, and the innovation will be entirely in chip architecture and integration (a bunch of separately-designed and manufactured chips stacked together).

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Would that imply that semiconductors/chips will become a commodity and the long term tendency would be for profits to be eroded? Engineering side of ERE please explain

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ZAFCorrection »

I don't think that will happen any time soon for the end product. What will likely happen is companies will try to differentiate based on having better hardware acceleration for a certain use case as they add a better sub-chip into the CPU. That will make it a lot more complicated to make a direct comparison of processors, but it might make things easier in that you would know to buy CPU X if your workflow consists primarily of A.

But the fabrication processes will likely turn into a commodity for the most part. I'm not really familiar with chip integration, but that could turn into the next big thing for the industry if it isn't trivial to perform.

But, ya, the stories about clockspeeds and gate length (e.g. 7 nm) should completely disappear. Maybe clockspeed will still be a thing if heat dissipation is an issue with stacking more stuff.

shemp
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by shemp »

Semiconductors won't be a commodity like bulk iron ore. More like specialty aerospace alloys, specialty fabrics, specialty paints. Profits will be in custom designs, and based on service more than underlying chip making capacity. There are always issues with custom designs, so there needs to be a close working relationship between customer and chip manufacturing engineers. Once a particular design is thoroughly tested and ready for mass production, margins will drop. To the extent Intel currently has very high margins on well tested designs, then there is the risk of those margins dropping due to competition.

In general, high margins attract competition. If Intel's price is based mostly on expectation of exceptionally high margins lasting forever, then price will fall more. Otherwise, eventually Intel will likely overcome current difficulties. For technology companies that are currently facing no difficulties, opposite applies: these companies will eventually make mistakes. If margins, P/E and P/S are sky high when this happens, then even a small mistake will cause stock price to crash.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

AMD up 10% after-market again on earnings. So much for me getting back in at $65 a share this Friday unless AMD takes a drastic fall somehow...like I was thinking...its hitting the FOMO. I did net a good profit having my shares called away but can't help but cringe as it goes up. That was another couple of Gs I traded away.

Riding the wave is an artform. I jumped off the ride too early on this one.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Took advantage of the gold and GVZ spike to sell my GDXJ calls expiring Jan 2021 and rolled forward to Jan 2022. Gains averaged about 500% on positions held for 8-9 months. The once OTM calls were all in the money and I went out of the money again to strikes of 80 and 90. I own more contracts and time value. All theta-related anxiety gone. Prepared to take advantage of a potential deflationary shock either before or after the election.

I wish I sold that chunk of SIL and SILJ in exchange for SPY puts in July instead of June. Was looking too closely at the rate of expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet. Forgetting that the breakout above multi-year resistance in summer of 2019 was catalyzed by an explosion in the quantity of negative yielding bonds in Europe. The recent EU stimulus package and perhaps also money fleeing Hong Kong had something to do with it this time.

Scotiabank began folding up metals operations in May. Credit Suisse also delisted their leveraged gold/silver and leveraged volatility ETNs (UGLD, USLV, TVIX) earlier this month. Bullion banks have made a killing with shorts over the years (and have done a great service to their central bank paymasters) so perhaps this was about getting out from an untenable short squeeze on metal and getting on the right side of a multi year trend.

If gold and especially silver made the first move, perhaps volatility is next.

CS
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by CS »

Much of this thread is above my head, but I must say, the ramping up of gold is giving me anxiety. I hold it, I benefit from it, but still watching the price goes up feels like watching a bomb go off in slow motion.

From my simplistic googling, gold is ramping up due to concerns about the lowering value of the dollar from QE and lack of bond income. Is there anything else I'm missing?

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