Investments Trade Log

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Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Absolutely. I was thinking more from the TV pundit point of view.
As an asset manager it's harder to be a bear/short, as you are "fighting" with a market that tends to go higher with time

giskard
Posts: 128
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Trades in the last week:

- Closed one of my shorter term ZM calls at a profit
- selling puts on GDX and GOLD with aim to own more of these gold miner stocks
- Sold a put on WORK and got assigned, might sell more

Mistakes in the last week:

- Should have sold all of my puts on Friday (the 3rd), cant fight the fed and I'm an idiot for trying.
- Should have sold all of my ZM calls when I saw the privacy backlash starting

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

giskard wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:02 am
- selling puts on GDX and GOLD with aim to own more of these gold miner stocks
considered this, but it traps margin cash for comparatively little harvested premium. SPX daytrading more fun.

(expect a post about how i've blown myself up yet again soon, i expect)

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@giskard

Good move IMO. Media sentiment against ZM has been building due to security concerns with its software.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I am having a very difficult time dealing with the market ripping up like this in the face of tens of thousands of dead people, closed stores, and 6.6 mln unemployment claims over the last week. It's grotesque, and it makes me feel hopeless. When the market was falling, I finally felt like things were returning to some semblance of normality and realistic pricing. Now I can't do anything but stare numbly. My brain can't even parse what my moves should be in the face of this.

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Yeah, people are dying and losing their jobs. But Disney reached 50 Million subscribers. My Wayfair stock which had recently tanked rebounded 65% because people are redecorating their homes now that they have to spend all their waking hours in them. My INSG is up because whatever the fuck they do seems to be important at this time. It's not the Middle Ages. People aren't home churning butter and delivering stillborn babies all the while fending off huge diseased rats. Thank God. My suggestion - don't let your love for humanity bite you in the ass in this department. Separate that shit out. It's not grotesque. It's human nature and that is one thing guaranteed to survive this situation.

CS
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by CS »

@ertyu

I'm with you on that one. I think it is one more data point that we are coming to a tipping point in our slide towards fascism. The other points I can immediately think of involve the grab to crush workers rights happening on so many fronts. It is increasing in intensity and speed in the last few years (alarmingly so). I would not have seen this if I wasn't in the workforce, so there is one point against ERE - you lose some data points you might otherwise have. I could show you the legal agreement the board I am certified with wants me to sign this year. I forfeit any rights that they could think of (the language clearly states I give up my rights). This is a sharp contrast to the much more reasonable agreement from a few years ago. The companies are demanding social security numbers for their email systems (really) and other nonsense. Everyone, literally, is demanding all rights waived and will not take no for an answer.

There are other examples.

Taken one at a time, they are 'explainable.' But the whole picture is bleak.

My prediction is we will soon hit massive turning point into full fledged fascism. There is the possibility to pull it out, but I fear something really terrible will have to happen to force that change considering the momentum we have (and now cemented under Robert's court) going the other way. When there is life, there is hope.

I'm not expecting many to agree with me. Nor do I expect that I am wrong.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I think of it as "corporate feudalism" but yes

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

1.) Open Money.txt
2.) File
3.) Open
4.) Select Printer [Fed]
5.) Print


^^I see the Fed has now automated my March 23 post with a python script.

giskard
Posts: 128
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:07 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Gold ripped higher today, I ended up purchasing some more GDX (large miner etf), GDJX (junior minor ETF) and GOLD (barrick gold) in the morning when I saw it moving.

I think it's extremely bullish that we broke strongly out out of $1700 / oz mark and all indications point to more money printing. State and local governments will all need bailouts with massively declining tax revenues.

My puts I sold on gold miners expired worthless this week, I'll probably be selling more on Monday.

I also took advantage of the moves today in financial stocks to exit most of the bank stocks I was holding.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Nicely done, giskard! Any worries that the gold trade is getting too crowded? I keep thinking it's not the right time, but maybe I missed the right time. They just keep printing...

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Critique my bright idea: why shouldn't I do this (SPX):

1. Choose an expiration far, far out.
2. Sell a call and a put exactly at the money (this was called either straddle or strangle i think)
3. Buy the next call out, and the next put out (1 expiration away).
4. SPX options do not exercise until expiration, and they settle in cash.
5. As SPX and theta do their thing, purchase back the calls or puts I sold (prepare to eat 5x100 per contract if cannot sell and one expires in the money)
6. Keep the long call/put to hopefully capitalize on vol.

What am I missing? I will repurchase the put and call I sold as soon as they are somewhat in the green to avoid a potential IV explosion. I am considering having 2-5% of portfolio at stake (10-20 contracts of the entire contraption). Max loss 10k + whatever I spend on putting the trade on.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Yeah, the printing press is on big time. BoE will now finance the UK government directly with an unlimited overdraft facility (normally capped at £350M, in 2008 drawn down to £20B, this year probably way deeper).

So... is it time to turn bullish? After all, you can't beat the printing press.

...or is it the biggest suckers rally yet?

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Dream of Freedom
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Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

ertyu wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:28 pm
3. Buy the next call out, and the next put out (1 expiration away).
I'm a bit confused by the wording. 1 expiration from today or from the last leg?

ToFI
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Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

ToFI wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:46 pm
Few days ago, I had the urge to convert everything to cash but resisted after reviewing my investment plan and stick with it. My stocks still keeping the out performance with SP500. It's 10% above the SP500 Year to date (Since Dec 31, 2019) during the worse panic of last few weeks. It's consistent of the 15% out performance per year from the past 5 years so I'll keep the growth stocks.

When fear is maximized, bottom is near. It could be we are near the bottom.

So SP500 bottomed 3 days later... It may well be the bottom of this bear market.
Even the strong minded person get the urge to convert to cash. When that happens, bottom is near.
This rule really works. I learned this from reading the story about a guy named Saul on fool's board.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

@DoF, from last leg. So if I sold 2800p I would be buying 2795p and if I sold 2800c I would be buying 2805c. The idea is to buy back the 2800c and 2800p, so hopefully we'll zigzag around 2800 a little before expiration, but if not, I would be on the hook for max 5*100 at end per contract. In this case I would be betting that on, say, August 31 2020, the SPX will not close between 2795 and 2805. In either case, though, I don't plan to hold to expiration. The idea is to close the trade when it makes money and roll. Criteria for repurchase of short options is, are slightly in the green/am not losing money on them. The money will hopefully be made by finding a cheap way to get myself long vol.

@ToFI, I am calling top on this rally, then. My inner bear is close to capitulating. I am starting to get fomo.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Just a corny and yet not so corny and widely quoted observation now that the market is in a condition of being able to deliver rapid lessons in mass psychology:
Sun Tzu wrote: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Here, the enemy is the market psychology and yourself is of course your own psychology. Understanding the market psychology is objectively difficult but not impossible. The index cult does have a strategy that is in complete accordance with their beliefs: They understand themselves and insist that the market cannot be understood, so they refuse to do battle. This is wise. Learning the enemy takes time and talent. Whether this succeeds or not is not random luck but the split accounts for the other two categories.

Generation-X
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Generation-X »

I like that, and it's probably very true.

After preparation, it's the doing that makes the most difference - whether it is indexing, trading, investing or gambling (or doing all). Rest is the roll of the dice. (probability.)
Last edited by Generation-X on Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:10 am, edited 2 times in total.

Quadalupe
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Quadalupe »

jacob wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:45 pm
The index cult does have a strategy that is in complete accordance with their beliefs: They understand themselves and insist that the market cannot be understood, so they refuse to do battle. This is wise. Learning the enemy takes time and talent. Whether this succeeds or not is not random luck but the split accounts for the other two categories.
Furthermore, I also believe that one can be greatly mistaken in his assessment on how well he knows the enemy. Better to be on the left side of mount stupid than stuck at the peak.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Bankai @ToFi

Not sure I understand the bullish sentiment here....S&P 500 is now at beginning 2019 levels with the recent run-up. The FED announced its stimulus literally at the same time of the jobs reports....Q2 / Q3 earnings reports are going to be devastating. We're just getting started with this Bear market. No way this is over yet...I am of the opinion you might be looking at the largest bull trap ever in stock market history. I'm not buying this rally at all. I know its time to continue being a bear when random friends on my Facebook who've never invested before are saying its time to buy and they're posting referral links to RobinHood. That to me is a signal...

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