Investments Trade Log

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jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Those with energy investments (and corporate bonds), please check their solidity. This is 2015 all over again.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/busi ... index.html

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

@jacob I know your style is not to trade commodities but curious if you have or are considering commodities as a diversifier with the potential for higher inflation & much higher oil prices at some point in the future?

Aside from this month's historically low inflation-adjusted oil prices, a quick look at oil futures even with Friday's optimism has prices only at $40-42 as far out as the end of 2023 & 2024. I know those prices will continue to swing wildly but I just can't wrap my head around it staying in the $20-40 range for several years. If there is an upward trend in oil or commodities in general when it looks like the next boom cycle is starting I will definitely want a slice of my portfolio in that.

Maybe the next business cycle will peak not with Millenials trading inverse VIX (& later TVIX) and tech stock calls (& later e-minis and puts) but with Gen Z trading commodities futures.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Image

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

Europe's COVID-19 is stabilizing, vaccine out for human trials, and stock market is up broadly.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

gold running like it f'in stole something, congrats to all that held

what was the deal with the 100-pt jump in spx this morning, was that oil optimism or what is going on here

CS
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by CS »

@2b1s pointed out that coins are running ~$150+ higher than spot price, if you can find them at all. People are definitely snapping up physical gold.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at J.P. Morgan warned investors in a Monday research note that there is a significant chance the global economy experiences “a vicious spiral, which is typical of recessions, between weak final demand, weaker labor markets, falling profits, weak credits markets and low oil prices.”
he advised clients to ignore technical signals indicating stocks are oversold, or to be reassured by the massive fiscal and monetary support provided by global governments. To do so would be “missing the elephant in the room, that is the first consumer and labor market downcycle in 11 years.”
Once earnings estimates fall to necessary levels, it is possible that equity markets will finally begin to “over-discount” a recession. This would be indicated by the S&P 500 trading at 10 times forward earnings — a low seen in previous downturns—versus the roughly 14 times as of Friday’s close, creating an attractive entry point for investors, Matejka argued
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... op_stories

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

Talking heads.... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-w ... yptr=yahoo

No one knows what the market is going to do in the near term.

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

True. Recently I tend to listen to bears more due to 1) confirmation bias & 2) they have less (obvious) incentives to push their agenda so are less likely to lie. But the market will do what the market will do.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Bankai wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:15 am
they have less (obvious) incentives to push their agenda so are less likely to lie.
If you call a market crash and nothing happens, nobody will hate you.
Call it right once, and many will call you a genius.
There are people who have been bearish and wrong for 10 years and can't wait to be right.

My favorite group is "if it weren't for the Fed!" as if central banks weren't part of the variables you must consider when assessing the markets

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Bankai
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

True. I think it's slightly different if you're running an investment bank though - if you're too defensive/pessimistic and miss out on big gains, your clients will go away and so will your job. On the other hand, being optimistic and encouraging your customers to trade/transact directly contributes to your bonus. So there is an incentive to be bullish and disincentive to be bearish. I'm speculating here but this is how it looks to me.

As a side note: S&P 500 closes in negative territory in worst reversal since 2008
https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/12 ... 7954699265

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Absolutely. I was thinking more from the TV pundit point of view.
As an asset manager it's harder to be a bear/short, as you are "fighting" with a market that tends to go higher with time

giskard
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by giskard »

Trades in the last week:

- Closed one of my shorter term ZM calls at a profit
- selling puts on GDX and GOLD with aim to own more of these gold miner stocks
- Sold a put on WORK and got assigned, might sell more

Mistakes in the last week:

- Should have sold all of my puts on Friday (the 3rd), cant fight the fed and I'm an idiot for trying.
- Should have sold all of my ZM calls when I saw the privacy backlash starting

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

giskard wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:02 am
- selling puts on GDX and GOLD with aim to own more of these gold miner stocks
considered this, but it traps margin cash for comparatively little harvested premium. SPX daytrading more fun.

(expect a post about how i've blown myself up yet again soon, i expect)

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@giskard

Good move IMO. Media sentiment against ZM has been building due to security concerns with its software.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I am having a very difficult time dealing with the market ripping up like this in the face of tens of thousands of dead people, closed stores, and 6.6 mln unemployment claims over the last week. It's grotesque, and it makes me feel hopeless. When the market was falling, I finally felt like things were returning to some semblance of normality and realistic pricing. Now I can't do anything but stare numbly. My brain can't even parse what my moves should be in the face of this.

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Yeah, people are dying and losing their jobs. But Disney reached 50 Million subscribers. My Wayfair stock which had recently tanked rebounded 65% because people are redecorating their homes now that they have to spend all their waking hours in them. My INSG is up because whatever the fuck they do seems to be important at this time. It's not the Middle Ages. People aren't home churning butter and delivering stillborn babies all the while fending off huge diseased rats. Thank God. My suggestion - don't let your love for humanity bite you in the ass in this department. Separate that shit out. It's not grotesque. It's human nature and that is one thing guaranteed to survive this situation.

CS
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by CS »

@ertyu

I'm with you on that one. I think it is one more data point that we are coming to a tipping point in our slide towards fascism. The other points I can immediately think of involve the grab to crush workers rights happening on so many fronts. It is increasing in intensity and speed in the last few years (alarmingly so). I would not have seen this if I wasn't in the workforce, so there is one point against ERE - you lose some data points you might otherwise have. I could show you the legal agreement the board I am certified with wants me to sign this year. I forfeit any rights that they could think of (the language clearly states I give up my rights). This is a sharp contrast to the much more reasonable agreement from a few years ago. The companies are demanding social security numbers for their email systems (really) and other nonsense. Everyone, literally, is demanding all rights waived and will not take no for an answer.

There are other examples.

Taken one at a time, they are 'explainable.' But the whole picture is bleak.

My prediction is we will soon hit massive turning point into full fledged fascism. There is the possibility to pull it out, but I fear something really terrible will have to happen to force that change considering the momentum we have (and now cemented under Robert's court) going the other way. When there is life, there is hope.

I'm not expecting many to agree with me. Nor do I expect that I am wrong.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

I think of it as "corporate feudalism" but yes

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

1.) Open Money.txt
2.) File
3.) Open
4.) Select Printer [Fed]
5.) Print


^^I see the Fed has now automated my March 23 post with a python script.

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