Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Lucky C wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:55 am

One might also compare the credit risks of this scenario with those of 1929 and 2008. There doesn't seem to be much similarity between this bear market and one of the milder ones.

Thanks for chart. My understanding of 1929 was that the personal devastation spiraled not merely on the precipitous drops in stock prices but because most personal investors borrowed money to invest and were basing their repayment of the loans on future gains. As opposed to today, where it's mainly 401K evisceration.

great stuff Lucky C, thanks for the data

You're welcome. I was interested in seeing how it's played out in the past and already had a spreadsheet handy. I don't know if it's of any use for making trading decisions. Mainly shows how much uncertainty there still is and we shouldn't jump to conclusions after such a rapid decline and now a multi-day rally.

Volkswagen burning 2.2 bn USD a week currently with no revenue..... I guess there are several other major corporations in a similar or worse position out there. Smaller companies are probably even worse off.

Income/revenue destruction will cause shit to hit the fan if the lockdown (now 3bn people under lockdown) is kept up for more than a few weeks more. I have been wrong before but this and daily cases/hospitalised increasing exponentially surely will add uncertainty to the market. I predict a major drop for equities Monday/next week.

@thedollar: the countereargument to your argument: https://brrr.money/

The logo is the Fed's, but all major central banks are QE-ing through the roof. Everyone is in "whatever it takes" mode. These nice people here have made us charts:
https://e-markets.nordea.com/api/resear ... ent/109171

While I agree with you that the real economy isn't faring well, the amount of money printing done means that it is difficult to translate this into short term market predictions. The market might do well, or it might not. I was thinking about just this today and it seems to me the potential unwinding (or not) of institutional risk parity trades + the "gamma flip" dynamic + QE will have much greater impact on mkt trends than conditions in the real economy -- as they did before the spx tumbled off a cliff.

@ertyu, seeing your other comment (viewtopic.php?p=208285#p208285), how are you planning to re-enter the market and jump in before the prices get too expensive (even if it looks as if the Central Banks are making an asset bubble)? I worry about this scenario.

I'm erring on the side of staying out for now. Yes, it is possible I miss a move up, but I am fundamentally risk averse and a chicken. I'd much rather miss a move up than risk a move down. While the Fed is printing, the worst is not over out there. I'm waiting for a second leg down with the full awareness that there might not be one. Smarter people than me are making the argument that we need another shock / surprise before that can happen - but in these weird times, the probability of weird shocks isn't small at all. This is what's right for me at this point, given age, employment status, size of stash, etcetera. Someone younger or currently gainfully employed might have a different risk calculus.

Update: this guy here makes sense to me

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433437 ... -to-decide

Though the guys that say printing is just beginning and nominal stock prices will rise make sense to me also. This group recommends capital preservation through being long quality companies with good balance sheets. But I have not done the research to know what those are.

Two weeks ago, I sold cash covered puts on GE, KO, WFC, Apple, WMT, and BRK.B. I was assigned on KO ($50 strike, stock closed ~$44) and Walmart ($120 Strike, closed at $109).

The stock chart for WFC was fun. Like the last 10 seconds of a close basketball game or something. My strike was $30 and stock closed at $30.28.

With IV so high, I'm enjoying collecting great premiums and setting strike prices about 10-15% below current price. Next Monday's move are to wheel the above again. For the ones I was assigned, going to set covered calls. I'm still bearish.

Coronavirus: Six months before UK 'returns to normal' - deputy chief medical officer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52084517

This is the first time the UK government hinted at just how long the lockdown might really be in place. The implications on GDP/economy will be on a scale not seen before. In my opinion, this makes whole sectors of the economy uninvestable - travel/leisure industry, airlines, restaurant sector, cinemas, non-food retailers without a strong online presence, etc. It's highly likely that a large number of companies in these sectors will go bust and although there will obviously be winners benefitting from reduced competition during recovery, it would be extremely difficult to figure out in advance which ones will survive. As for the government bailing out companies - you can't bail out the whole economy. The government had already ruled out an industry-wide bailout for airlines/airports and would only be looking to step in if all other options are exhausted. Now, some airlines sit on billions of £ and are likely to survive with no revenue for several months, maybe over a year. But, those who don't and actually need government help, are likely to see existing shareholders diluted or completely wiped out. The same applies to other sectors. It looks increasingly likely to me that bottom picking stocks in this environment is nothing more than a gamble. Waiting for the recovery to start and only then backing up the ones still standing seems a superior strategy.

And there are still open trade agreement negotiations between UK and EU. This is another uncertainty factor.

Some doubt there will be an EU by the end of this. There's potential for a lot, a lot of disruption here.

Not really picking individual stocks. But, will slowly deploy 50K into Betterment during the next two years (about $1,000 every two weeks). This month we have already invested 85K we had in cash.

dipping toes very very very slowly. 5% of cash in GDX (200), GDXJ (200), U (100), ASPS (100), EGLN (100).

Very very tempted to take another 2% or so and buy SPX puts. Or sell OTM calls. Very tempted. I'm temperamentally unsuited to buying protection, but it seems to me it would be the smarter way. IV/VIX might still go up. Buying would be better.

I'd bought some VTI (10 shares) and BRKB (250 shares) on the way down. I sold the VTI at slight profit and BRKB at slight loss (couple hundred). Decided I'd rather be holding cash for now (still have plenty invested) as this post-tax account is targeted more as a house downpayment or +1 year out living expenses (if no other income).

Latest Howard Marks memo, always a great read.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/def ... ay-now.pdf

He seems to be bearish, which is in my very humble opinion the most probable short/mid term outcome.
Too many people are still living in a fairy tale where everything goes back to normal fast and things ain’t so bad.
I participate in a watch forum and I had to take a hiatus because people there are so unwilling to accept what’s going on that I was going nuts.
Reality will kick in and there’s a chance many will panic.

As usual I won’t make any drastic changes but will again build a bit more liquidity with my monthly savings by only investing about half of them.

Howard Marks in particular has been edging thinking of this particular crisis since 2017, being into distressed debt and all. But yeah, exactly 0 of the various pundits and hedge fund ppl I follow are, "yay!!! crisis over!!" - mostly they argue about the exact way and extent in which it'll be an absolute shitshow. Professionals agree this is a bear mkt rally and the lows are likely to be retested.

@SavingWithBabies

I was impatient selling puts on BRK.B. $15k underlying capital for only a $40 premium. Though I am picking very far OTM ones right now...I'm predicting some circuit breakers in the next 2 weeks and I don't want to be caught with pants down this time.

I had already been looking for good REITS to buy in my IRAs this year, so the with the drops in prices I'm going ahead on some...

Bought: SPG, STAG
Have limit orders to buy: O, WPC, LAMR

I feel (more than usual) that I don't know what I'm doing. I suppose that's basically thinking that the stock prices might go down a lot more over the next couple weeks and I'll wish I waited... or that some of the companies I buy will totally collapse. Tomorrow never knows.

I have in total about $50k in my IRAs that I'm wanting to buy with.. And then another $70k in my post-tax account that came from selling stocks in January to set aside cash for buying a home in 2-3 years. I'm thinking, especially if prices go down more, that I will put most of that back into stocks at (hopefully) low prices. I have another $60k or so of pension money that I could claim and get in my Traditional Roth to invest, but getting that now would be more complicated than usual because I'm out of the country.

The pain is just starting for REITs.

When will it be at full pain?