Investments Trade Log

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Lemur
Posts: 601
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

My Disney puts sold off this morning. I locked in a 30% gain recovering at least some of the cash I lost during my calls in February. Now I'm happy to report that I am officially getting off this roller-coaster of long calls / puts. This fiasco cost me $4k total (out of $6k invested) but was probably worth the price as it taught me a lot more then any college course would...I learned so much about options from this experience lol.

Then again...$290 SPY PUTS looking....okay j/k.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:32 am
I made a stupid (so far) move and took some gains off the table and moved a decent chunk of my portfolio into cash.

Total equity exposure is only ~40% right now.
In hindsight, this was not a very stupid move. The remaining exposure I have to equities and REIT's has gotten pummeled, so much so that 40% still feels quite high! Though it's more like 35% now.

Once we get to levels where checking my balances makes me want to puke, I'll consider taking a long position again.

Lucky C
Posts: 557
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Picked up some VT (Vanguard Total world stock). I wonder why it has 1 cent big-ask spreads vs. more like 10 cent spreads for US-only VOO and VTI? Anyway this is just in the hopes to ride a potential rally from extreme pessimism/fear back to average levels or even optimism/greed, so it doesn't really matter too much if it's US only or all world. Fingers crossed!

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

The resort, rails, air, cruise, ... businesses are making a comeback today. Guessing it's on account of having been hammered so much in the past two weeks. Financials are still suffering from the 0.50% rate cut. WFC is under $40 now!! Incidentally, the rate cut seems rather dumb to me. Free money is mainly useful when demand is constrained, but with people staying at home, not going shopping, working, or attending conferences, it would only serve to boost the equity/risk markets (which didn't work) while doing nothing for the economy. The only real effect on the ground might be to lower people's credit card payments very slightly... those without savings having to stay home from work.

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Anyone ready to jump into the energy sector yet? Many oil companies now have 6%+ dividend yield but I don't know how likely it is those payouts will endure.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@LuckyC - I think it's mostly dead [in the long run, so 10-20 years]. Institutional money is pulling out (ethical investing). New discoveries are going down. There's a limit to how much EPS can be generated/supported by buying back shares. This seems more like a trade on oil prices than anything.

wolf
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Location: Germany

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by wolf »

The next rate cut seems to be based on the further development of infections of COVID-19, as the FED said.
Total Cases of COVID-19 as a percentage of the world population is very low.
But the stock market crashed in the last two weeks.
So I was wondering, how it's gonna be?
How does the stock market change, if % of total cases increases?
So far the chart shows nothing especially.
I'm wondering if the stock market bottoms first before total cases tops, or vice versa?

Image

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

@jacob Thanks for the analysis. I will continue to not hold those stocks :)

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray »

black_son_of_gray wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:03 pm
TLT [...] Potential upside best case: maybe 20%.
Woke up to see that TLT had popped up 5% overnight :shock: , so I sold half of my shares to lock that in. That's like getting 4 years worth of yield in a day. Yes, please.

The 1- and 2- year CDs that I bought last summer now return nearly 2X the US 30Y Treasury. What a world...

Seppia
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Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

jacob wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:25 am
WFC is under $40 now!!
It's trading at multiples of good italian banks (at book value, 5% dividend with 50% payout, PE 10).
I agree from a Macro standpoint a rate cut does not make any sense.
It seems like the USA really want to fall in a liquidity trap, maybe they don't want to leave their european and japanese friends alone

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Bankai
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Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:28 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Bankai »

@wolf - recession can be caused by people's perception of the situation and not necessarily the situation itself. And recession means lower revenues, earnings projections miss and as a result stock crashing. Markets are also all about the future and currently clearly expect things to get worse. It looks like 'reality' lags the market by some time as it's not currently so bad as to justify the drop. But there'll be a time when large %age of the population will already have had the virus and even though cases will be still increasing, the market will start looking to recovery in the near future. So the bottom could be a few weeks before the peak of epidemy - that's assuming no new developments in mortality rates etc. Before market bottoms, there are always individual stocks which resist general decline quite well and start going up before the general market bottoms. Watch out for these as they will be future winners.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

jacob wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:55 am
@LuckyC - I think it's mostly dead [in the long run, so 10-20 years]. 1 Institutional money is pulling out (ethical investing). 2 New discoveries are going down. 3 This seems more like a trade on oil prices than anything.
If I can play devil's advocate:
1- hasn't stopped cigarettes from being an incredibly lucrative investment in the last 20 or so years
2- this may actually bring oil price up if you believe oil will play a key role for humanity in the next 50 years
3- for XOM or Chevron, sure. But some oil majors (Shell above all) are planning for a future where oil is less relevant. Shell is as much a natural gas company as an oil company today

unfold
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Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:23 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by unfold »

Bought some DIS and CCL yesterday.

DIS as a long term dividend growth play. Although most quality stocks still seem expensive it's back to 2015 pricing and I feel like deploying at least some cash...
CCL as a value play. It's probably going to fall even further and if a recession hits, its currently massive dividend is likely going to be cut completely. I'm betting that it'll survive and that I can sell with profit after some years. Current P/B ~0.7.

I might buy a bit of MMM as well...

slowtraveler
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler »

Confused as to why MMM is down. Expected it to skyrocket with the increased demand for masks.

Also bought some DIS at these prices. Previously sold at after a nice gain but it's getting into a great price for the quality of the company. This stock dominates media.

Can anybody also explain why Netflix has less earning per share with a multiple of share price when Disney already has so much content that it can repackage via live movie versions, games, all that into more money but Netflix must start from scratch and has generally much lower quality content. I mean Disney has well over half of the top selling movies most years. Keeps breaking box office records. It seems to have more growth potential than Netflix. So why the assyemtric pricing?

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

slowtraveler wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:47 pm
it's getting into a great price for the quality of the company.
So you're telling me to sell puts

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Lemur
Posts: 601
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ertyu

That is the lens I see the world in now lol. Buy at a limit price....but why? Just sell puts and get paid while you wait to get your price!

Lucky C
Posts: 557
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Buy The Dip rally postponed indefinitely. Futures down nearly -4%. Oil down close to -20%. Gold approaching $1700.

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by classical_Liberal »

As an up-all-night shift worker. I feel obligated to point out to you all as you wake, US futures trading overnight hit the breaker limits. Seems the Russian/Saudi oil pissing match had bad timing. Should be an interesting day as I sleep.

ertyu
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Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Jesus christ crude at 28 and falling

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

This is finally getting interesting.

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