Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

dude you give me anxiety just by existing lmao good luck hope it works out.

Edit 1/8: dear lord, 480 bucks pre-market, I don't even own it and I'm getting the heebie-jeebies
Last edited by ertyu on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jason
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Seppia wrote:
Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:56 am
It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
Can someone just give me one death by electrical car malfunction to take this shit off the front page. Like a pregnant woman on her way to the emergency room. Or one of the Democratic Presidential nominees. One of the old ones who can afford an electric car. I don't think its that much to ask. Maybe they'll catch a break and it will turn out to be terrorism but damn an exploding phone and some random douche suffers some burns on his ballsack but a product like this its just so magnified.

Edit: This stock seems to have more bounce than a fat guy who fell out of one of their 737's. I have to think that a company that killed 176 innocent people only to have a one day stock drop might have some moat. If this was Beyond Meat or Baby Yoda or some cancer treatment situation I'd have to think this shit would have dived faster than one of their planes. And my condolences to anyone who may have had a loved one on board one of these flights although I hope you get seriously hosed on the settlement.

Edit Redux: Well, it turns out it was in fact an accident, but the accident turns out to be Iran's fault not Boeing's. Now I'm not sure how one accidentally shoots a missile into a plane. Where does the accident lie? Was it the wrong airplane? Or did someone lean accidentally lean on a button and the missile just so happened to hit a plane. I'm thinking they had enough time to blow it up before it hit something so maybe they didn't realize they had launched one. Who knows with those crazy Iranians. Being that it's an Iranian Missile, on an American airplane filled with Ukrainian passengers the timing does seem a little odd. This has Rudy written all over it. Maybe this whole Iranian war concoction was to prop up Boeing which would be fucking great for us shareholders. Nike and Apple have sweat shops. Boeing has sacrificial passengers. All in the game. Any ways, stock is up slightly more than $1 since I bought in.

Lucky C
Posts: 409
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

I don't understand what happened today. The market closed in the red without a report of trade setbacks or Middle East conflict escalation? CNBC said something about disappointing jobs data but I know that's not supposed to matter :P

Bought some TAIL to add on to my exhausted-with-this-bull-run hedging. Usually a terrible idea when the market is making new highs but I believe there are valid reasons, when looking "under the hood" of the market and economy, to expect a decent pull-back in the short term that warrants putting a few percent into such hedges.

I like TAIL as a hedging option in Vanguard since it is commission free and should in theory be a slightly better option than SH which isn't even allowed on Vanguard any more. Also has decent volume / low spread unlike some other Cambria ETFs. The downside would be the expense ratio, higher capital needed, and inability to choose precisely what options you think you would be best, vs. making the same type of bet by just picking your own individual SPY puts. The advantage is if you don't quite know what you're doing when it comes to buying SPY puts, the Cambria guys can probably do a better job picking & buying more when they're cheap (when volatility is low).

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »


thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@Seppia

Very interesting indeed.

There is no doubt that Elon Musk has lied on several occasions (420 funding secured, Solar City merger). The document contains a lot of information on Musk and honestly - reading the conclusion - it seems to be mostly an attempt of character assassination. Just because the CEO has lied, smoked pot and so on I don't think that you can conclude that Tesla must be a fraud.

It's not like they are making a specific claim backed by evidence like: "Tesla only delivered 300,000 cars last year despite reporting 360,000". That would be huge. These are just random (but interesting!) facts on Tesla and Musk to back a conclusion saying that the company is a fraud.

I was a little taken back by the suggestion that Musk might have cancer. I cannot seem to find any information suggesting that doing a quick search. I guess if it is really true and it came to light the stock would take a hit.

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Explosive growth
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N

"One can assume that Tesla has hit peak performance in the U.S. because they have not exceeded their 2018 results for five months now," said Shane Marcum, vice-president of Cross-Sell.

User avatar
C40
Posts: 2394
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am
Location: PNW
Contact:

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

[ PULLED MONEY OUT OF STUCKS FOR FUTURE HOUSE PURCHASE ]
------------------------------------------------------------

I have an order in to sell about $70k of stocks in my post-tax portfolio. That is about 1/3 of my post-tax stock portfolio, and about 1/5 of my dividend income there (because I sold stock that have low yields now). I looked through my stocks - considering the stocks that have:
- Low current yield
- Low dividend growth rate
- Increased PE since I purchased
- Significant price growth

Image

The stocks on the bottom portion of the table are the ones I decided to sell. The upper portion are some examples that I did not select to sell.



[ QUESTIONS ABOUT REIT INVESTING ]
----------------------------------


Now... the next change I'm thinking about making is in my IRA accounts. I have $30k cash sitting in those now that I want to invest. I already own some REITS in those accounts - amounting to 20% of my total net worth. I'm planning to put that 30k into REITS, and possible a (large) chunk of other IRA money.

Before I go dumping more and more of my IRA money into REITS, do you guys have any suggestions on where I should learn more about the REIT asset class in general? (to make sure I'm at least somewhat aware of market trends, risks of the investment type, risks of RE price bubble pops, likelihood of REIT company bankruptcies vs. 'normal' stocks.)

Another thing I suppose I should consider are (other types of) MLPs as well. It seems like there are huge tax advantages to having large portions of my IRAs in MLPs and REITs. I just don't want to be taking some large risk that I'm not currently aware of and would feel stupid about if something goes wrong that I should have considered before.

I got myself a couple books to read on REIT investing, but I expect those may be rosy/biases/over-promotional of REITS.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Sold HCKT Feb 21 2020 17.5 Put @1.20 with intent to take possession for a long term position.
Last edited by Dream of Freedom on Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Dream of Freedom
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

C40 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:16 pm
Before I go dumping more and more of my IRA money into REITS, do you guys have any suggestions on where I should learn more about the REIT asset class in general? (to make sure I'm at least somewhat aware of market trends, risks of the investment type, risks of RE price bubble pops, likelihood of REIT company bankruptcies vs. 'normal' stocks.)
Hoya Capital does some good articles on the reit sector and subsectors.
https://seekingalpha.com/author/hoya-ca ... r_articles

Brad Thomas goes over individual picks and calls out ones to avoid.
https://seekingalpha.com/author/brad-th ... r_articles

In general you should look for internal rather than external management. I have had good luck with reits that are undergoing the conversion from external to internal though. You may want to be cautious of mall reits as many of their tenets are at ground zero of the switch to online retail. The same trend is a boon to industrial reits though as more warehouse space is required. Have fun stock picking.

George the original one
Posts: 4916
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

C40 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:16 pm
Another thing I suppose I should consider are (other types of) MLPs as well.
I've enjoyed MLPs, but as a retiree, I decided I didn't want to spend my time hassling with their tax basis when buying/selling, so I stopped dealing in MLPs. The lower your taxable income the less tax benefit you'll realize, so if you're not paying any federal income tax, there's really no reason to go messing with MLPs (unless you see an easy capital gain).

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 399
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@C40 Can't recommend a particular learning resource (sorry), but I would advise you to consider 1) any given REIT's sensitivity to changes in interest rates (could be high) and 2) as a result, how that would affect the investment if interest rates went up/down/sideways. Know what you're getting into with mortgage REITs.

User avatar
C40
Posts: 2394
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am
Location: PNW
Contact:

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by C40 »

Thanks guys.

@Dream of Freedom - I'll take a look at those. The book I'm reading places a lot of emphasis on internal management and a significant amount of insider ownership. I have done decently well with REITS so far, selecting sectors that I think will do well. I've avoided Malls entirely and only bought retail/commercial REITS for companies that I think will continue needing physical spaces. My best bet was on data centers, with DLR being I believe the fastest appreciating stock I've owned. I also have a longer-term bet on the Boomer generation clinging to life and spending every penny on themselves by investing in senior care and skilled nursing facilities. Those seem trickier with all the regulatory changes in the mix.

George the original one wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:53 pm
.... so if you're not paying any federal income tax, there's really no reason to go messing with MLPs (unless you see an easy capital gain).
I am not paying any federal income tax directly, but I do own shares of many companies that pay taxes. As part of my objection to the various misuses of tax money (particularly wars) I feel good about having investments that pay little/no tax.

--------------

@black_son_of_gray:

I have been becoming aware of differences between equity and mortgage REITS (that started years ago when I dabbled in AGNC for a while after their big price drop but decided to sell after about 6 months. I have and plan to focus entirely on equity REITS. I do need to learn more about the extent they are impacted by interest rate increases.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Are you fucking kidding me TSLA reached 594 at some point yesterday (since down to 569.56). What the utter bleeding fuck. If that thing crosses 600 on an impulse move I'm putting my entire nw in puts, jesus fucking christ-

Jason
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

It wasn't Tesla, but at least a front page air disaster that wasn't Boeing's fault.

User avatar
Lemur
Posts: 443
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@ertyu

Incredibly tempting right?

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@ertyu @lemur

hi guys. I can barely see you from up here @ aftermarket $620 (edit: 650 now) :roll: :lol:

On a serious note, this may be a little high but I'll hold. I like how the metrics are developing. It seems that they are confident on only cashflow positive and profitable quarters from now on.

Are you guys buying puts/shorting?

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I need help from experienced traders please.

I would like to have along term bet that TSLA price will be significantly lower sometime in the future.
Since I am confident that its intrinsic value is only a fraction of its actual Market Cap, but I am also aware that, short term, the markets can be completely irrational, the longer time horizon, the better.
I also want to avoid the infinite downside of selling short.

It looks like the instrument for me is put options, correct?

The furthest date I can find is sometime in January and June 2022, but I see there's little volumes available.
WTF am I supposed to do with 10 contracts?
Also, what is "open interest"?

Last question: what about counterparty risk?

Sorry for the n00b questions but I have never ever looked into options. The opportunity seems just way too juicy now though

Thanks in advance

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Counterparty risk will be unavoidable regardless of which options bet you make. It is also present and I am not sure you can eliminate it. You can't choose who you buy your options from, your broker just sells you some. Because the only way to avoid counterparty risk is not to make the trade, I'd ignore it. Ironically it's short-selling that reduces it best :lol:

I think you are correct in pointing out the irrationality attached to this ticker. This leads you to wanting to make a long-term bet. The longer the term, however, the bigger the cost. For your bet to be profitable, you need the fall in share price to exceed strike price + brokerage fee + _loss of value to your options due to time decay_. That means the longer term the bet, the larger the drop in price you'd need to be profitable.

About open interest and such terms: I could tell you, but I'll send you to investopedia.com instead. Very useful resource for when you need a term looked up. I've learned a lot there.

As for how to best structure the trade, I am not sure. I would suggest that you begin by reading up on the most common strategies - learn about straddles, strangles, iron condors, bear calls, calendar and vertical spreads, also ratio spreads. <-- my suggestion of terms to look up.

Share if you decide on one.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

thedollar wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:00 pm
@ertyu @lemur

hi guys. I can barely see you from up here @ aftermarket $620 (edit: 650 now) :roll: :lol:
I am still a chicken (should be an identifiable trader group along with the bears and the bulls). But I'm rooting for you man. Pandemic in China might shake things up for TSLA tho - but let's see how things develop

IlliniDave
Posts: 2710
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

I lowered my equity exposure by about 5% yesterday. Buddy of mine (semi-doomsday fanatic) dumped all of his except his employer's stock, odd choice keeping employer's stock but I don't think he's got a whole lot of it. I'm balancing what I see as surging political risk and corona virus versus USMCA. Looks like the timing was good if the open implied by Dow futures is indicative, but the move was too small to have much affect on overall return numbers. But it was about 1 years worth of tightened-belt living expenses moved into short-term treasury bonds (my workplace retirement plan added such a fund recently--yay!).

Post Reply