Investments Trade Log

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ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

someone tell me not to put my entire net worth into a convoluted bet that tsla's going down

i'm not going to since it's obvious there's 0 rationality left when that stock is concerned but boy my fingers itch

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

I have the opposite problem... someone should tell me not to increase my tsla holdings :D :roll:

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that.
But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesla has an army of completely irrational fanboys (and some shady cheerleaders who are at the same time pumping the stock and dumping shares - see ARK investing) pushing the stock up.

I wouldn’t touch the stock with a 10 foot pole.



*See this thread and look up the follow up from Einhorn
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/11 ... 66561?s=21

**see the current Solar City derivatives trial, see the completely made up claims - 1000000 robotaxis, “full self driving” -, see the completely idiotic products he comes up with and nobody in the news media call him up for - the underground tunnels!
It really is amazing

ZAFCorrection
Posts: 254
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ZAFCorrection »

Love me some Elon Musk. Reminds me of my old roomy with his four-year math degree who thought he could best all the experts in the fields we discussed with nothing but some basic knowledge of the parameters and a napkin model.

Somehow my advisor comes up with ideas the same way though. Of course the vast majority are completely unfeasible after looking at them for a day. But they keep coming. Sure as Elon Musk is getting blazed tonight.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Yea I support the dude, I mean, if 25% of what he comes up with sees the light of day the world would be a better place (um, save for that thing where he's making the Terminator). Don't begrudge him the 420 either

Sadly, that's quite separate from TSLA stock

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

I have been listening to Peter Thiel quite a bit lately. Globalization as 1 to n and Technology as zero to 1 and all that. Globalization being you mass produce typewriters and technology being you build a word processor to replace it. I have yet to pick up a copy of Zero to One but I plan to.

In this presentation he outlines a matrix with determinate/indeterminate on one axis and and optimistic/pessimistic on the other. Portfolio diversification and financialization in the quadrant for indeterminate optimism he says is the current dominant religion and this he does not subscribe to. He says the heyday for this is past but the presentation was given in 2013 and he like many others underestimated the ability of central banks to push it further.

While acknowledging that what Elon Musk may be selling a lot of pipe dreams, how much credit should we give him for trying? NASA is not doing anything, the public sector is not doing anything. What I frequently heard Thiel say is that JFK promised the moon by the end of the 1960s and we got there, while a few years ago the Federal govt couldn’t even launch a website for the ACA, and that in our times a letter by Einstein would get lost in the White House mailroom.

The alternative is business-as-usual short volatility financialization. Buy Coca-Cola, get your GEICO insurance, worship at the alter of Warren Buffet forever and ever Amen, hoping the creaking groaning monstrous Baby-Boomer constructed edifice never collapses (but it will).

I remember reading in Nietzsche (and I am sure he read it somewhere else) that even if you fail in your venture, that fragments of your failure may be used as building blocks for someone else. Elon Musk is doing something, he is taking some of the resources of society and trying to do something, while
the public sector vomits on itself and Warren Buffet sits in his booth and collects tolls.

Even if Musk and others like him fail, their efforts seem better than constructing ghost cities in China or building fucking ride-sharing apps. A future of prosperity will not self-generate while a bunch of Baby Boomers shitting their diapers call the shots in a desperate attempt to perpetuate The Long Now.

I must be feeling indeterminate pessimism today. Does anybody have any weed?

Jason
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Elon Musk has the ingenuity of Thomas Alva Edison but the personality of P.T. Barnum. What other corporate titan is up on the stand parsing out exactly what he meant by "pedo guy" while his company stock soars. I thought often of buying the stock but never did and now I semi-regret it.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

TSLA 430 -> 413 overnight, coulda woulda shoulda

oh well

took profits on GDX @31

Looking to re-enter - curious: what price would you re-enter at? I have a tendency to overshoot, e.g. set a buy order for 26 then wonder why we never get there.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

“Why We Have No Heroes”

Or

“Shameless Tone-Deaf Apologia for Central Bankers Made in Anticipation of Collapse Caused by Central Bankers”

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we-h ... -ray-dalio
Ray Dalio wrote:Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi were each faced with existential debt crises that came to them because of what others before them did and that would have led to deflationary depressions and social and political disasters if they didn’t buck the cynics and politicians to make the controversial, unconventional moves that returned the world economy to non-inflationary growth. I watched their every move closely every day so I saw the decisions they made, the strains they were under, the fights they needed to have, and the personal attacks they had to endure in order to bring about stability.

While these moves averted past disasters, we are still faced with large debts and non-debt obligations (like pensions and health care) and growing deficits, so there are storms brewing. Now central bankers have less effective monetary tools and will have to coordinate with polarized politicians who have to agree on taxes, spending, and regulations. Most likely the challenges ahead will be harder rather than easier. If we keep treating the heroes the way we are treating them, we might not have any when we need them the most.

That’s my greatest worry as well as the greatest injustice.
Go fuck yourself Ray.

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Seppia wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:00 am
They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that.
But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesla has an army of completely irrational fanboys (and some shady cheerleaders who are at the same time pumping the stock and dumping shares - see ARK investing) pushing the stock up.

I wouldn’t touch the stock with a 10 foot pole.



*See this thread and look up the follow up from Einhorn
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/11 ... 66561?s=21

**see the current Solar City derivatives trial, see the completely made up claims - 1000000 robotaxis, “full self driving” -, see the completely idiotic products he comes up with and nobody in the news media call him up for - the underground tunnels!
It really is amazing
Looking just at current fundamentals (except the extreme growth rate) Tsla is definitely not worth current market cap. Such a view would imply the assumption that the world is mostly static and never changes. That is in my view a false assumption. Just to state my point 20 years ago there was no Instagram, Facebook, iPhone, Twitter, Snapchat, Tinder, Android, Youtube, bitcoin, Spotify....... All things that have changed the world.

The world is ever-changing and current companies will fail while a few new will dominate. There are three things I look for when trying to evaluate investments that could possibly dominate the market place in the future:
  • Rate of innovation
  • Ability to hit
  • Moat / competitive sustainable advantage
It's become clear with latest electric car models from traditional automakers that Tesla is ahead and has an efficiency/range/charging advantage. Next year they are rumored to introduce a 1 million mile battery/drivetrain leaping ahead of everyone and everything. They are changing how cars are produced with the new Cybertruck. Traditional manufacturing will become obsolete due to the low cost of producing the truck. The Model 3 is the car of the year in several European countries.They are delivering an awesome product right now while main competitors have delayed competing vehicles (ID3 and EQC).

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

I’m not sure I’d call this an “extreme growth rate”
https://images.app.goo.gl/ChAmd9xdwv18Zpsr5

In mature markets such as Norway (considered to be the most advanced in terms of EV acceptance), the model 3 is getting slaughtered

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/03/nor ... di-e-tron/

As for the rumors about the battery I’d point out that
1- Tesla doesn’t make their batteries (Panasonic does), so no edge.
2- they are not exactly stellar in respecting timelines

As for “Changing how cars are produced”, it seems irrealistic. I’d be surprised to learn how a famously inefficient company that has lost money every single year of its existence can come up with a substantially better way of making cars than established, profitable companies that have been doing it for decades.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but with the history of BS Musk has, I’d request a little more details.

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

Revenue:
2017: 11,759 USDm
2018: 21,461 USDm

That's pretty extreme in my book.

Mature market sales/deliveries... The cars are shipped to Europe every quarter that's why you'll see some months with bursts of Tesla sales in Norway and other European countries. Probably Tesla is also prioritizing Netherlands over Norway atm due to incentives disappearing. By the way Model 3 is car of the year in Norway!

Battery cells currently produced by Panasonic - true - but they are going to take over production according to earnings call this summer: https://electrek.co/2019/06/12/tesla-ba ... well-tech/

You might doubt their ability to come up with a substantially better way of making cars but it's right there!! Look at the cybertruck - there's no stamping involved.

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Dream of Freedom
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Started a small position in HCKT @16.02. Long term investment. Will probably be buying more.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Terrible execution this morning. I saw the price move back and forth through(*) my limit orders twice before getting filled.

(*) This is technically(**) and legally not supposed to happen because of Regulation NMS. So likely means that when I hit the submit button for an order, it is not actually submitted to the market but rather some internal routing/matching widget.
(**) It can technically happen but the broker will be fined/expected to make up the losses for not executing at the national best price.

That is the actual price of those $0 commissions.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 5538
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

My uber-wealthy friend recently transferred some shares of a stock (over $100,000) as gifts to multiple parties. A few days later he noticed that his broker had sold/transferred the wrong shares-those acquired at a higher price. I witnessed him pick up the phone and instantly have this error corrected. Is that normal level service?

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

@7wb5 - It's expected service (it's happened to me too once with the broker eating their error after I pointed it out), but I don't know if it's normal. Especially not with these cheap-ass online "brokers".

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

thedollar wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:57 am
I have the opposite problem... someone should tell me not to increase my tsla holdings :D :roll:
congrats man shit's gone parabollic hope you catch the top alright and get out on time

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

ertyu wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:50 am
congrats man shit's gone parabollic hope you catch the top alright and get out on time
Thanks... I'm not good at catching tops or bottoms which is why I've been changing my strategy to 1) never sell and 2) slowly move all investments towards index funds / tracking indexes.

Also, I'm most likely one of those irrational fanboys mentioned by Seppia which is why I won't be selling my tsla stock at all. I'll hold it til death or bankruptcy - whichever comes first. I think you are right though that there'll be some kind of correction short-term.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 399
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@thedollar... you could always go the middle route by selling TSLA to get your original investment back, but let your profits ride for the long haul = you won't lose money and you still have option for "to the moon".

thedollar
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:07 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by thedollar »

@black_son_of_gray... Thanks for the advice. I'm probably delusional but I think there is a chance that the stock could hit 1 trillion market cap during the 20s. Even after a crazy run-up like this it looks cheap to me (I know, I know! :shock: :? ). So in essence I don't want to sell shares, I actually want to buy more. I'll compromise and just keep what I have.

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