Investments Trade Log

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

First, I'm arguing the "artificially".
As stated a few posts above it's simple supply and demand.

The usual argument (which if I understand correctly you seem to agree with) is that stocks are "manipulated" higher via low rates.
I believe this is incorrect because
1- Fed and other central banks lower rates to stimulate a lagging economy, not with the intention of pumping the stock markets.
2- if the correlation between rates and stock prices were direct and 1.0, stocks in Europe and Japan would have been manipulated much higher than the USA. The opposite is true.

Moreover, either your thesis is that low rates lead to higher stock market or vice versa. You can't claim at the same time that stocks are manipulated higher via low rates in the usa and then that EU stocks are low because rates there are low.

I believe neither positions to be true because low/high rates are only ONE of the many, many elements that influence stock prices.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

deleted irrelevant to thread

discussion continued in thread jacod directed us to
Last edited by ertyu on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

ertyu wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:54 am
I meant the impact QE has on stock prices.
I still miss something. QE has been heaviest in Japan, then Europe, and USA last.
Are you arguing QE inflates prices up or down?

I am not saying stock prices are of zero concer to central banks. I am saying they are not THE concern. GDP growth and inflation targets are for sure concerns number 1 and 2 in some order in both Europe and Japan

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Lets keep long discussions about the market out of the trade log. There's a thread about QE and permanently low interest rates here: viewtopic.php?t=10795

cmonkey
Posts: 1791
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

jacob wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:08 pm
We've moved from the general risk-on/risk-off trade to the particular trade deal on/trade deal off trade.
More like the trump tweet good/trump tweet bad trade. I'm sure he knows what he's doing..

Lucky C
Posts: 409
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Bought some ERUS (Russia ETF). Russia being possibly the most undervalued country (but has outperformed the US the past year) and ERUS being composed of nearly half energy stocks which may be "due" to outperform other sectors after a long streak of underperformance.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

Ha I have been thinking about Russia for the same reasons. Doesn't look too liquid + I could be smarter at sector analysis (I did notice it's mainly energy + commodities + Sberbank haha). Russia seems like they will benefit from climate change, too. Yes their permafrost melting liberates anthrax, but think of the usable land and natural resources!


George the original one
Posts: 4916
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:59 pm
Cleaning the portfolio. One of the obvious things to ditch was WPC as their dividend hasn't been increasing as fast as inflation, yet the share price went silly this year (40%?) and a yield that was 5%-6% is now 4.7%. So am gonna bank those capital gains!
WPC is getting closer to where it should be for a re-purchase. Trying hard not to jump the gun as it needs to fall at least another 5 points.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

bahaha tsla @420 the roof is on fire congrats to whoever had the guts to put on the trade i thought we'd go up but i chickened out

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Tsla stock is probably the most mind blowing of all.
The valuation is already insane on any possible metric, but the fact that the stock is at an all time high is especially incredible now that all the other structurally unprofitable unicorns have massively deflated in value.
Textbook example of why I would never short a stock

slowtraveler
Posts: 797
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by slowtraveler »

Bought TSLA at 180. Took some off the table in the mid 200's after 50% gains. Maybe time to take some more off the table.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

slowtraveler wrote:
Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:41 pm
Bought TSLA at 180. Took some off the table in the mid 200's after 50% gains. Maybe time to take some more off the table.
imo yes, but be advised i have a bear predisposition and always end up taking less risk than optimal

Seppia
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Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Kimbal Musk sold 32% of his stake last month at around $350 and the CFO is dumping his stock options as soon as he gets them so yeah, I would definitely take some gains off the table
http://openinsider.com/screener?s=TSLA& ... 100&page=1

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 1147
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

This is an industry-wide phenomenon, especially among the unicorns:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-co- ... 20434.html

The grand-scale pump-and-dump is almost complete.

ertyu
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

i mean, i get them. i took profits too early and right now i'm just shitting in cash watching. that shit is scary. i bet i'll regret it but i'm too chicken to go long AND too chicken to buy spy puts and have drift + decay eat me up

Jason
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Bought Boeing (@) $336 after both their product and stock crashed. Jim Cramer said to wait until sub-$300 but they shit canned their CEO and brought back an old stalwart to positive press so I bought my first position. The industry is a duopoly. It's more than 25% off its high. And this really smart lady who specializes in industrials says its great 3-5 year play.

Seppia
Posts: 1203
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am
Location: Italy

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Jason
Posts: 2479
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Thank you. As I mentioned, the industry is a duopoly - Boeing/Airbus - which explains that despite the twin tower of corporate disaster and malfeasance - public deaths and cover-up - it has only suffered a modest stock depreciation not a full blown Tyco/Enron meltdown. There is simply no other player to step in and take advantage of its present market weakness. It's an American corporate symbol. It's failure would reek havoc amongst a multitude of industries. My guess is the government will do its requisite FAA dog and pony show all the while conducting back room machinations to prop it up similar to what they did/do with the banks. They have their scape goat in the former CEO. They have already started the "We might have murdered your grandmother but we are ultimately reliable" PR Campaign. I'm sure it will go down or sideways for a while. It's a very slight percentage of my portfolio. And that lady really seemed to know what she was talking about. Hopefully she doesn't die in a plane crash before they get things back on track.

IlliniDave
Posts: 2710
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by IlliniDave »

I'm definitely feeling the need to dump some stuff before the end of the year (nothing significant about 12/31, it's just a near-term waypoint). I guess I've been asleep at the switch because I was suprised when I heard the SP500 is ~+30% YTD, meaning I'm overexposed again. I'm not expecting the bottom to fall out in the short-term, but lowering risk at this juncture is more about the unexpected. Over the last few years I've been selling US equities (when I do sell 1-2X/year), holding on ex-US equities, and buying bonds and cash. Thinking I'll lop off ~25% of US equities in my 401k and go with bonds or a stable value fund.

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