Early Retirement Extreme Forums

My brokerage account is down 7% in one day.

I think this is the scene where Michael Burry starts screaming as he plays the drums.

An interesting test of my resolve

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:24 pm

My brokerage account is down 7% in one day.

Why? The only bad news I've seen today is that Google is buying Fitbit (so I have to say bye bye to my fitbit).

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 pm

On this the ninetieth anniversary of The Great Crash weekend, I chant and dance in drunken ecstasy to INVOCATE the spirit of John Larry Kelly Jr.

Levered long gold, levered long volatility.

IACTA ALEA ESTO

Good news is bad news for me.

Although in this bizarre world where bad news is good news because it means central bank easing, bad news is generally good news. Which means for me, bad news is good news is bad news. Until the bad news is really bad, in which case bad news is mistaken for good news and everyone missteps before realizing what terrible news it is, and that would be great news for me.

Infinity Candle

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:19 pm

On this the ninetieth anniversary of The Great Crash weekend...

For some reason, this particular day of the year (10/28) has on average also historically been the best performing day in the US stock market.

SYK (Stryker) sure got pounded today for sealing a deal to acquire Wright Medical. Seems investors don't like the debt and Moody's is reviewing SYK credit for a downgrade.

I've been focusing on my 5 year CD ladder over the past few months. Found a CU with 3-3.25% rates on 2-5 year CD's with no maximums. If we really are going to get negative interest rates, might not be a bad move for some cash that's not immediately needed.

Another one of my investments just received a buy out offer from a pension fund. ARGH! Wonder if there's an actual trend in terms of taking all the good investments private and leaving the public with the fluff equity.

And after a different group of pensions go insolvent you’ll see your property taxes jacked up to cover the difference.

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:26 pm

And after a different group of pensions go insolvent you’ll see your property taxes jacked up to cover the difference.

Sorry for the tangent but pensions blowups seem to me like one of the biggest risks associated with being long term in the USA.
Some state funds are fighting an unwinnable war with math, and there will be a moment when kicking the can down the road won’t be an option any more.
The costs are of course going to be socialized, so either taxes are going to go up, promises will not be kept or (most likely) a combination of both.

If I were young with lots of assets and EREd, I’d think hard about moving somewhere else long term.
There’s plenty of countries (even in the very first world, think Scandinavia) that do not have this issue.

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 pm

Risk capital account down 8.75% today.

Down 13.7% , or 0.36 years of living expenses, since quadrupling leverage on 20191025.

Bought 2 UBER December 20 2019 26 calls
For $1.73. I think they just bottomed.

Mister Imperceptible wrote: ↑

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:02 pm

Risk capital account down 8.75% today.

Down 13.7% , or 0.36 years of living expenses, since quadrupling leverage on 20191025.

How is it going now?

Down 10.85% today, the worst one day performance yet. Down 21.6% since 20191025, the steepest drawdown yet.

Cash balance is well over 6 figures now at 33%

Bought a little more Campari today. They are trading at 37 PE but this is a company whose highest margin product (Aperol) is growing 20% YoY and has no competition.
Growing 45% YoY in the USA, now the largest market.
Plus they own another couple of brands that have no direct competitor (Campari, Grand Marnier being the largest ones) and a couple big players in competitive but still high margin categories (bourbon, rhum).
When a vodka with gross margins above 60% is your dog because of the very competitive nature of the business, you know you're doing fine.
Best run Italian company one can own and it's not close.

In the recent months I've built a fairly big position in British American Tobacco. Now my second largest individual holding.
I'm far from proud of it but there's very few things I'd be buying now, and I have to put at least a part of my excess cash somewhere.
A beaten down cash cow seemed like the best option.
Cash allocation also up, now should be north of 16% in spite of the run up in equities.

Sold UBER calls for 3.45. 99.4% gain in a week. I love leverage.

Bought 10 CUB @57.77. Trade.

Sold CUB @59.41 for a 2.8% gain.

@DoF - You're gonna file your tax return sending it flat rate? How many trades this year so far?

jacob wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:41 pm

How many trades this year so far?

30 buys and 18 sales. Most of the portfolio is long term. I'm trading with under 0.5% of it, usually less, and only when I feel like it. I want to improve my skill though, so practice.