Early Retirement Extreme Forums

I bought some Campari today (both the stock and the aperitif).
Best CPG company in Italy that one can buy on the stock market by a significant margin, a global player with core products that generate huge margins and have zero competitors.
Still enormous room to grow.

Expensive, but I cannot think of a better business to own in the CPG world.

Germany economy contracts, UK yield curve inverts.

So... will we have repeat of last autumn's dip? Markets usually like to have at least 4-5 things to worry about to go into correction (the more the better). Currently, we have:
HK
Brexit
Trade wars
Possible recession in Germany
Same in UK
Inverted yield curve
China's growth at 17y low
Plus couple more which I forgot
This seems to me more than enough for at least short term correction. Possibly more if there's Indeed a recession in Europe. As usual, the trick will be to 'pick the bottom', or at least close enough to it to get in at decent price. But what if there'll be few bottoms? Or a proper . Thoughts?

I’ve been hoping for a real bear for about 4 years now, so I’ll try not to jinx it this time.
This bull market really doesn’t want to die though.

Seppia wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:44 am

I’ve been hoping for a real bear for about 4 years now, so I’ll try not to jinx it this time.
This bull market really doesn’t want to die though.

Are you trying to time the equities market?

No, it's just that being a high saver / net buyer I've been hoping for cheaper prices

Looking through fund choices for my new employer's 401K, I've discovered something called a 'front load fee', which looks to be just a chopping off of anywhere from 3% to 6% of my deposit. The investment choices are terrible - basically just WFC and BEN. I miss Vanguard! It's either this or 22% to USA.

I have been buying Cisco over the last few years as a dividend stock but enjoyed its growth until the last few days back when it became clear that China was treating it like the technological equivalent of Donald Trump's assshole and it plunged 10%. It's not a good sign as they are the barometer of global technological growth. There are some stocks that should not be punished by the trade war that have been. Such as Facebook which is completely banned in China and Microsoft which is limited in the country. So I bought some FB on the dip. MSFT is too close to all time highs for me. I hate everything about Facebook but I would have bought Pablo Escobar, Inc. if it he had gone public. It's essentially the same product. I suspect there will be a few more algorithmic shit storms to play with over the next few months until Trump makes nice when the election gets closer. I also bought some GS and some financial ETF's. They've been beaten like a child predator in gen pop. Plus Warren Buffet usually gets the banks right even though he appears to have lost his fastball elsewhere.

@cmonkey

The 401(k) plan with my previous employer seemed almost like thievery...front load fees, asset fees, trade fees, 'earnings fees' were all too common ; made me seriously consider not even investing in the 401(k) plan.

Shitty 401k plans seems par for the course in smaller companies. If they can't make the money on volume, they make it in fees.

Insofar tax-deferred accounts fit into the overall plan I would not avoid the 401k though. Most people mistakenly put money into them to get the match (free money, yay), but the real value of them is that transactions (and non-qualified income) aren't taxed. This makes it possible to engage in more flexible strategies than eternal buy&hold w/o taking tax hits.

Keep in mind that the plan can be (and probably should be) rolled over into a self-directed IRA later on once you quit.

I was spoiled by my first employer - Fidelity has great 401K options. I paid 2 dollars per quarter (yes every 3 months) on a 5 figure balance invested in what amounted to the S&P 500 index. It's very hard to beat that for fees and set the bar for my expectations. My last employers provider had Vanguard funds but then took their own hefty cut which amounted to something like 20-30 a month on the same size balance.

Doing the math between taxes and fees the 401K still makes sense though.

@jacob Also some 401k plans allow in service rollovers so that is an opportunity to get it in pre-tax and then roll it out to try to avoid the nibbling mouse. So far, I have not been employed by an employer that offers it though (post learning about it).

Target!!

I feel like that is an overreaction to their earnings beat, given how slight it is. But hey, I'll take it.

I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.

It's interesting that TGT and WMT both beat significantly and unexpectedly for the end-consumers given how the intermediate goods and delivery sector are declining. So about that recession ... where does it first materialize?

jacob wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:43 pm

I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.

TGT? Or the market as whole?

https://www.apnews.com/3b21f8af2045410581e0af41661fb7a5

The next round of the trade wars with 15% tariffs on imported "consumer stuff" begins tomorrow, so you might want to get your xmas shopping in today (unless you're buying sneakers and TVs which got a reprieve until 12/15... or DIYing the gifts). This time the tariffs target consumers, so not mainly farmers. There seems to be some consternation on whether the retail sector will be able to pass the cost onto consumers or whether they'll have to eat the cost themselves and lower earnings. Probably some combination of both.

JPM estimates the tariffs will cost the average household $1000/year. That average household must spend a lot^H^H^H^Hn average amount

This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html

Jason wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:25 am

This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html

I see the threat of tariffs as a 'something for nothing' strategy for Trump. He will do nothing (not implement tariffs) or remove them when each industry provides the requisite campaign tribute he deems suitable . It is the perfect leverage as he has the ability to direct it with pinpoint accuracy against those who have not shown sufficient largesse. We shall see.

I think its safe to assume that while Trump believes that tariffs have economic benefits, he does not understand fully the economic repercussions of tariffs. It appears that those who do understand tariffs, and support his imposition of them, say he is correct in principal, but not strategy. It's for him, more of a political strategy. It plays into his isolationism and they have been taking advantage of us for years narrative. Whatever he does or doesn't do, at the most politically opportune moment, he will jump out from behind the curtain and say "We made the best deal" and no one, including both him, me and his base, will know or care as long as everyone's portfolio is shitting more green than a leprechaun on St Patrick's Day.